2014 Draft top 2 tiers

[BobDigital]

This is just my take on what I think the top 2 tiers of this draft are. There have been multiple articles talk about the draft in the form of tiers as opposed to value charts. Many of us have suspected this but there is more evidence of its existence this year than ever. So with no further ado and in no particular order within the tiers.

Tier 1 - 10 players

Clowney - DE
Donald - DT
Robinson - OT
Matthews - OT
Lewan - OT
Watkins - WR
Evans - WR
Mack - OLB
Barr - OLB
Gilbert - CB

Tier 2 - 14 players

Ebron - TE
Lee - WR
O'dell - WR
Martin - OT
Clinton Dix - S
Pryor - S
Dennard - CB
Fuller - CB
Jernigan - DT
Shazier - OLB
Mosley - OLB
Ealy - DE
Su'a Filo - G
Bortles - QB

Obviously Hageman, Cooks, Tuitt, Ford and a few others have a case but I am just not as sold on them as I am these others.

 

[manxman2601]

I think Clinton-Dix is probably in tier one for most teams and Martin in tier two. Donald probably ends up as a tier two player as well. I also think there's a more defined tier one limited to Clowney, Watkins, Robinson, Mack and Maybe Matthews/Barr.

 

[BobDigital]

I think Clinton-Dix is probably in tier one for most teams and Martin in tier two. Donald probably ends up as a tier two player as well. I also think there's a more defined tier one limited to Clowney, Watkins, Robinson, Mack and Maybe Matthews/Barr.

Fair enough, I want to start debate. I already moved Martin to tier 2 cause looking at him in tier 1 I thought "nah".

Obviously there is some separation within the tiers themselves and it is also hard to draw the line of where tier 1 and 2 separate.

I would say the main difference is this

Tier 2 are 4 down players that are key starters on the team. They consistently make plays to help you win and are hard to match up 1v1

Teir 1 is that plus some. They are players which tend to be nightmares to game plan against or guys that disrupted your game play in a passive manor (like an OT that stone walls your top pass rusher all day).

 

[Wilfork#75]

For me there are a small group of elite talents; Clowney, Watkins, Robinson, Mack and maybe Matthews. Beyond that I think there isn't too much difference between the rest of the guys in the top 35-40.

 

[BobDigital]

No order within the tiers.

Tier 1 - True game changes - 9 players

Clowney - DE
Donald - DT
Robinson - OT
Matthews - OT
Watkins - WR
Evans - WR
Mack - OLB
Barr - OLB
Gilbert - CB

Tier 2 - Top notch starters - 15 players

Ebron - TE
Lee - WR
O'dell - WR
Martin - OT/OG
Lewan - OT
Clinton Dix - S
Pryor - S
Dennard - CB
Fuller - CB
Roby - CB
Jernigan - DT
Shazier - OLB
Mosley - OLB
Ealy - DE
Bortles - QB* Elavated due to being a QB

Tier 3 - 25

Carr - QB* Ditto
Bridgewater - QB* Ditto
Cooks - WR
Robinson - WR
Landrey - WR
Adams - WR
Latimore - WR
ASJ - TE
Niklas - TE
Kouandjio - OT
Moses - OT
Su'a Filo - OG
Bitionio - OL
Richberg - C
Chrichton - DE
Tuitt - DE/DT
Hageman - DT
Nix - DT
Easley - DT/DE* due to injury concerns
Attaocho - LB
Verret - CB
Joyner - CB
Gaines - CB
Ward - S
Buchanon - S

Tier 4 - 38

Manziel - QB
Mettenberger - QB
Garoppolo - QB
Benjamin - WR (to me he is more of a niche redzone player)
Matthews - WR
Moncrief - WR
Bryant - WR
Richard - WR
Amaro - TE (can't block well and can't run every route)
Fiedorwicz - TE
Hyde - RB
Hill - RB
Stankey - RB
Mason - RB
James - OT
Flemming - OT
T. Turner - OG
Yankey - OG
Dozier - OG
Jackson - OG
Martin - C
Swanson - C
Lawrence - DE* currently the most overrated prospect.
Martin - DE
K. Quarles - DT
Reid - DT
Murphy - OLB/DE
Noy - OLB
Reilly - OLB
Tripp - OLB
C. Jones - LB
Borland - ILB
Robertson - CB
McGill - CB
Baptiste - CB
Breeland - CB
Brooks - S
Reynolds - S

I plan to break this down more and maybe offer insight into my picks as draft day approaches

 

[Luxusdk]

What is it you want with this, other then haveing the same G in tir 2 and tir 3

 

[BobDigital]

What is it you want with this, other then haveing the same G in tir 2 and tir 3

Opps fixed that. Well overall rankings are good. But every team uses some form of tiers to help them draft. In fact in a lot of ways tiers are more important. I just think it is worth talking about as part of the draft process. This is how i think the top players stack up.

For instance tier 3 has 1 Center and 2 Safeties while having 5 WRs. To me that would suggest you are better over reaching a bit for Center or Safety and waiting on a WR in the 2nd round (which is about where i expect most tier 3 players to go).

 

[Luxusdk]

Well i have made a top 6 for DL, DB, OL, LB, WR, TE, RB list. Etc DT/NT/DE in the same pot, and then listet them after a mix between, potential, system fits, draft value and more. I didn't end up with 75+ names but i really doubt you need that.

OL: 1 Urschel 2 Bitonio 3 Martin 4 Hurst 5 Long 6 Matthews - welcome to split them into tirs, but as you can see, there is picks between round 1 and 7

Not able to do it for Qbs cause i beleave 80% of Qb play are between your ears... ( would rec access to test IQ etc )

 

[mgteich]

It is useful to make such lists. I like to have a top tier of players that are essentially out of reach without a major trade up (I moved 5 players into Tier One for my list). #16 would take a second or more in addition to our #29. So, we are within reach of the rest of the players if we wish to move.

I understand that this group has a wide range of talent. This would matter if we were pick at #10. At #29, we'll simply wait as these players go off the boards. Hopefully, more quarterbacks are drafted so that more players are available at other positions.

Tier 1 - 15 players
Clowney - DE
Donald - DT
Robinson - OT
Matthews - OT
Lewan - OT
Watkins - WR
Evans - WR
Mack - OLB
Barr - OLB
Gilbert - CB
---------------
Dix - S
Jernigan - DT
Dennard - CB
Manziel - QB
Bortles - QB

==============

Tier 1 - 10 players

Clowney - DE
Donald - DT
Robinson - OT
Matthews - OT
Lewan - OT
Watkins - WR
Evans - WR
Mack - OLB
Barr - OLB
Gilbert - CB

 

[mgteich]

I see 39 potential first rounders. As we come past 15 or so in the draft, Belichick will decide who if any is worth trading up for, and how far he is willing to trade down. If Belichick MUST have a player from this list of 39, he cannot trade down past 39 if he believed that this list would get drafted in the first 39. As the draft goes on, others will be drafted, and by 29, Belichick may expect say 3 of his players to be available at 40 and trade down to that level.

Tier One - 15 players
Manziel - QB
Bortles - QB
Watkins - WR
Evans - WR
Robinson - OT
Matthews - OT
Lewan - OT
Jernigan - DT
Donald - DT
Clowney - DE
Mack - OLB
Barr - OLB
Dennard - CB
Gilbert - CB
Dix - S

Tier Two - 24 players
Carr - QB
Bridgewater - QB
Ebron - TE
ASJ - TE
Lee - WR
Beckham - WR
Robinson - WR
Cooks - WR
Martin - OT
Su'a Filo - G
Yankey - OG
Nix - DT
Hagerman - DT
Ealy - DE
Tuitt - DE
Crichton - DE
Ford - DE
Shazier - OLB
Mosley - OLB
Fuller - CB
Roby - CB
Verrett - CB
Joyner - CB
Pryor - S

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I see 39 potential first rounders. As we come past 15 or so in the draft, Belichick will decide who if any is worth trading up for, and how far he is willing to trade down. If Belichick MUST have a player from this list of 39, he cannot trade down past 39 if he believed that this list would get drafted in the first 39. /QUOTE]

I see it just a bit differently. I see 6 or 7 blue chip players and only about 10 to 12 red chip players.

After your tier 1 and a couple from your tier 2 bridgewater, shazier, ebron, and ealy, are off the board, then everybody left has a second round grade in my book. This draft is a bit unique in my book because from #20 or #21 to #50, we have a bunch of players all with negligible differences in grade. Just a huge number of white chip players.

If BB wants a red chip player, he has to go up 10 spots or so to get one. I am not sure if I see that player worth going up for.

However if BB wants to trade back for extra picks or future draft picks, then he has tremendous opportunity to create value. If BB took Nix at #29, then no one would bat an eye. If we got Nix at #39, then no one bats an eye on that one either. The point is there is next to no difference in grades for picks #21 through #50.

So if we pass on Ealy at #29, but get Crichton plus a 2015 3rd rounder at #39, then I'm thinking most of you are thinking that is a huge win for the Pats.

 

[mgteich]

I agree that my Tier One mixes blue chip and red chip players. I agree that Bridgewater should be in Tier One, almost assuredly gone (that brings to total to 16).

You have unavailable additional first round talent (really top 19 in this draft) as Shazier, Ebron and Ealy.
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Many have one of these players lasting into the 20's, but if not, we have your scenario. You mention getting Nix at 39 as being a victory. I agree. That is true for almost all that I have on Tier 2 (through pick 39).

So, if Belichick has these players about equal in value, it makes sense to move to 39. If he has players among this list that he values lots more than that, the situation is different.

You seem to have another 11 players in mind that are about equal in value to my Tier 2 list. I guess we disagree there.

For me, I would not be happy being at 38 and choosing between the lowest rated 2 Tier 2 corners plus the others not on the Tier 2 list.

 

[manxman2601]

Opps fixed that. Well overall rankings are good. But every team uses some form of tiers to help them draft. In fact in a lot of ways tiers are more important. I just think it is worth talking about as part of the draft process. This is how i think the top players stack up.

For instance tier 3 has 1 Center and 2 Safeties while having 5 WRs. To me that would suggest you are better over reaching a bit for Center or Safety and waiting on a WR in the 2nd round (which is about where i expect most tier 3 players to go).

I like the work you've put in here but one thing I would say is that if you are talking about tiers in relation to a draft board then I think there would be many more "tiers" with much fewer names in them. For example, you would have 3 or 4 players with a 7.4 grade, a couple with a 7.2 and then maybe 4 or 5 with a 6.9 grade. The question is, at your pick, if there is someone with a 7.4 grade and another with a 6.9 but at a position of greater need, which one do you take?

 

[mgteich]

For example, you would have 3 or 4 players with a 7.4 grade, a couple with a 7.2 and then maybe 4 or 5 with a 6.9 grade. The question is, at your pick, if there is someone with a 7.4 grade and another with a 6.9 but at a position of greater need, which one do you take?

Yes, we could have tighter groupings. You example is a good one. The question is how much difference in talent makes a difference, when need is involved. You can cloud the ratings by our own need (I think that this is a common approach), or you can decide each time whether the difference is worth getting the player you need at a position you need. In the grading system you give, I think that it clear to favor the 7.5 rated player.

HOWEVER, we need to decide how me include system fit in our ratings, as well as need. We need to decide how we adjust ratings for flexibility (say 3-4 and 4-3, or DT and DE).

For me, the goal is to have a board for each time we pick. So, my Tier 2 Board is the board for when we pick at 29. And yes, we could then apply ratings to each player (as the team certainly does, and perhaps take folks of the board for a few rounds (as I did with Benjamin).

Some players may be trading up a bit for. If enough are left, we could trade down.