Team Draft Assessment Challenge for the Decade

[TB_Helmet]

I downloaded the spreadsheet and maybe will do some analysis on it, either soon or before the 2020 draft.

Some questions I have --

1. Are the Pats really that bad at drafting WRs? (The position rankings put us last, so yes? But I wonder what the average / median AV per WR is compared to other teams since we don't draft too many of them).

2. How does career AV vary across rounds? Do 4th round picks do better than 5th rounders? Where is the biggest drop off from round to round?

3. How many total "hits" does each team have (say, how many players above a career AV of 20, or maybe divide AV by # of years a player has played).

4. Is there a positional group that tracks well with winning percentage? QB might be obvious but, for example, is OL better than WR or vice versa?

Anything else people can think of?

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I downloaded the spreadsheet and maybe will do some analysis on it, either soon or before the 2020 draft.

Some questions I have --

1. Are the Pats really that bad at drafting WRs? (The position rankings put us last, so yes? But I wonder what the average / median AV per WR is compared to other teams since we don't draft too many of them).

2. How does career AV vary across rounds? Do 4th round picks do better than 5th rounders? Where is the biggest drop off from round to round?

3. How many total "hits" does each team have (say, how many players above a career AV of 20, or maybe divide AV by # of years a player has played).

4. Is there a positional group that tracks well with winning percentage? QB might be obvious but, for example, is OL better than WR or vice versa?

Anything else people can think of?

Last I checked for hit rate 2nd Rd had almost as high of a success rate as 1st Rd. 2nd was abt 50% and 1st was around 55-60% I believe?
3rd Rd wasn't great around 16%.
4th was around 10% and 5th was 15%.

 

[slam]

I downloaded the spreadsheet and maybe will do some analysis on it, either soon or before the 2020 draft.

Some questions I have --

1. Are the Pats really that bad at drafting WRs? (The position rankings put us last, so yes? But I wonder what the average / median AV per WR is compared to other teams since we don't draft too many of them).

2. How does career AV vary across rounds? Do 4th round picks do better than 5th rounders? Where is the biggest drop off from round to round?

3. How many total "hits" does each team have (say, how many players above a career AV of 20, or maybe divide AV by # of years a player has played).

4. Is there a positional group that tracks well with winning percentage? QB might be obvious but, for example, is OL better than WR or vice versa?

Anything else people can think of?

Good luck! Get to know the AverageIF, SumIF, and CountIF functions!

Looking at the compilation I did from 2000-09 (using that as that captures what a player should be expected to earn over the course of his whole career), here's what teams average for a pick in each round:

R1: 44.3
R2: 29.9
R3: 18.2
R4: 15.8
R5: 11.6
R6: 9.4
R7: 8.9

As for percentage of hits or winning correlation, I haven't done that formula, but it can be done. One thing that goes beyond the scope of this analysis is that some teams may have incumbent starters. If you analyze QB drafting, for instance, several teams didn't draft any QBs the entire decade that accumulated any AV.

 

[stinkypete]

It's odd looking, but they're #4 in terms of number of picks, but 23rd for points per pick. They're not good at drafting any particular pick but they have a lot of picks and have relied on their draft and not free agency (since they're cheap as heck).

Also, their drafts early in the decade were pretty good. Geno Atkins, AJ Green, Dunlap, Kevin Zeitler, and Andy Dalton. Those drafts powered winning seasons from 2011-2015, which is easy to forget about. They've been poor drafting from 2014 on, so their ranking should fall as time goes on.

This jumped out at me as well.