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Super in depth article on Bill's drafting history


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From 2016-2020:

2016: C Jones, Thuney, Brissett, Valentine, Mitchell, Grugier-Hill, Roberts, Karras, Lucien

Thuney has been elite. Brissett has been a very good draft pick, even if he's no longer on the Patriots. Mitchell was a really good pick and was a huge factor in the Pats winning the Super Bowl that year. Then he got hurt and was out of the league. Injuries happen. He was a good pick and was going to be a really good receiver for them. Roberts has been a good NFL player, playing for two franchises, he's started 44 of 73 games in his 5-year NFL career. That's excellent for where he was drafted. Karras similarly has had a good NFL career. Mainly as a backup, but the last two years he's started 31 games out of 31 appearances for two teams that each made the playoffs. On the whole, getting one elite player, two legit, regular NFL starters, a guy who was off to a very promising start that helped lead you to a SB title but unfortunately got hurt, and a valuable backup QB who has stuck in the league and started for another team...that's a good draft by any reasonable measure, even if only one of the guys is still helping your own team.

2017: Rivers, Garcia, Wise, McDermott

No picks earlier than the third round. Why? The Pats made a bunch of trades that year giving up a lot of trade capital. Plus they lost a 4th round pick due to the ridiculous Deflategate penalty. They traded away #137 for Dwayne Allen, who was instrumental for them as a blocking TE, helping the Pats get to two SBs and winning one of them. Excellent use of a draft pick. They traded #64 to get Kony Ealy to shore up the pass rush. Whoops, that didn't work out so well. They traded #32 and #108 to get Brandin Cooks, who was terrific for the Pats (62 rec, 1,082 yds, 7 td), and #118, which is the pick the NFL took for Deflategate. After one year the Pats traded him to the Rams for #23 and a sixth round pick in 2018. They traded #72 and #200 for #83 and #124. The #83 ended up being Rivers, who hasn't panned out. Wise turned out to be pretty decent though and has survived in the league for a while. So we can point to the draft haul as being bad, but this draft also gave the Patriots Allen and Cooks, who were both excellent for the Patriots, and they were able to turn Cooks into something positive later.

2018: Wynn, Michel, Dawson, Bentley, Sam, Berrios, Etling, Crossen, Izzo

They got Wynn with that #23 they acquired in the Cooks deal. So long story short, that 2017 1st rounder they had turned into one very good year of Brandin Cooks, and a franchise left tackle. Pretty damned good work by BB. Michel was drafted too high, I think we'd all agree, but he's been a solid pro, a key member of the 2018 SB run. Dawson got hurt and did nothing for the Pats in 2018, but he's been an important contributor for the Broncos the last two years, so he hasn't been a bad pick; it just didn't work out for him HERE. Bentley isn't exactly Steve Nelson, but he's been a team captain and he's started 17 out of 32 games in his career. Clearly he's part of their future at LB. That's a really nice 5th round pick. Sam turned out to be nothing. Berrios did nothing with NE but he's been good for the Jets - that was a good draft pick. Etling was a flier at QB that didn't work out, but Crossen has been a solid pro, both in NE and Hou, and Izzo, while not great, has started 16 of 18 games he's played in for the Pats. That's great for a 7th round pick. Overall, a very nice draft getting a stud left tackle, a solid RB, a solid starting LB, and three other players that are contributing around the NFL.

2019: Harry, Williams, Winovich, Harris, Cajuste, Froholdt, Stidham, Cowart, Bailey, Webster

Harry has been a disappointment so far. Williams has seen regular snaps in a loaded Patriots' defensive backfield. Winovich has flashed signs of excellence and has clearly been a contributor. Harris looks like a breakout star in the making at RB. The OL guys picked up late...meh. Stidham we thought might be good but the jury is still out..not looking good on that. Cowart has been a nice contributor on the DL, Bailey is only the best punter in the game (all-pro), and Webster has been irrelevant. On the whole, probably a disappointing draft mainly because of Harry, but any draft that gives you an all-pro, solid contributors at 3 other positions, and a potential stud at one other position (RB) can't be considered a bad draft.

2020: Dugger, Uche, Jennings, Asiasi, Keene, Rohrwasser, Onwenu, Herron, Maluia, Woodard

Tough group to evaluate given that Covid killed their training camps. Still....Dugger was good this year and played a ton. Uche showed signs of being starting material. Jennings...we'll see. Asiasi was hurt all year, as was Keene, so they didn't contribute much. TEs as rookies in the Pats' system are notoriously going to not produce for a while. I'll NEVER understand the Rohrwasser pick...made no sense then or now. Onwenu was a phenomenal pick - the guy is GREAT. Herron contributed a lot this year on the OL. The last two picks...meh. But I see one stud (Onwenu), and a bunch of other guys that will be contributors for years. Hard to call this a bad draft.


So when I look at the last five drafts, I see excellent production from them on the whole. A few studs, a bunch of solid players, and contributors up and down the list, even if they're contributing for other teams. BB hasn't drafted poorly. He hasn't drafted flawlessly, obviously, and I've pointed out what I think have been some big misses. But EVERYONE misses. Every. Single. Team. Without. Exception. Misses a LOT.

And the one "terrible" draft (2017) actually turned into some excellent pieces for NE that helped them get to two Super Bowls and produced a stud left tackle. I might not say that the Pats have had the BEST drafts in the NFL over this stretch - but again, they had picks taken away from them, and they're ALWAYS picking at the end of rounds due to their success - but they've certainly not been disastrous like some people claim. Not at all.

Although I appreciate certain aspects of your post, it lacks a 'big picture' perspective. What do I mean by this?

When you miss on WRs for, I don't know, 10 years, and you pick N'Keal Harry in the 1st round and the pick turns into a train wreck, your football team on the field pays double.
When you ignore the TE position for years and years, then you draft 2 rookies that get hurt and effectively give you nothing from the position, your football team on the field pays double.
When you have no plan at QB, and your veteran backup can't play, then you discover in the middle of the year that you don't think Stidham can play, your team on the field pays double.

As you pointed out, the team has drafted some nice players over the past few years, but their actual impact on the field has been limited. Why? Because players like Roberts, Bentley, Michel (outside of his rookie year), probably Winovich, while being good players, are complimentary players. On a team with sufficient talent, guys like this can be extremely valuable. They are 'put you over the top' type guys. On a team devoid of talent, they take up roster spots that are probably better used on guys with more potential.

It's not quite as bad as it looks. UDFA home runs like Jacobi Meyers should also be taken into account. I'd be willing to bet that if we looked only at rookie UDFA over the best 20 years, Bill is near the top in identifying players that can help the team. So he deserves credit for that. But the draft itself over the past few years has been flat out terrible imo.
 
He's done a TREMENDOUS job! Especially 2016 to 2020!
 
I would not hold your breath. Bill has made one terrible WR pick after another. He seems incapable of correcting this flaw. Again and again he flubs it; he just does not learn from his mistakes. He wants a super Boy Scout, humble, mold-able WR who, apparently, gives great interviews; he does not seem to understand that the good WRs are usually primadonna jerks, at least coming out of college.

It could be even worse this year since he will be desperate for a WR. He does not do well when desperate, like in 2015 when he was desperate for a S and reached for Jordan Richards.

We need to completely set on fire and burn to ashes, whatever method they use to evaluate WRs and CBs. It is NOT working. Don't even draft WR or CB anymore. Draft other positions. Draft DT, DE, LB, or OLine. That's it.

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I am glad this is being analyzed so the fan base can see that Bill was hosing us when he tried to use the success of the team as the reason for the poor roster. It has been his drafting and lack of any Qb succession plan.

When you have a veteran-laden roster that spends five straight years competing for Super Bowls, your drafts are going to look worse because there's much less opportunity for young talent to shine.

There's less patience, less practice reps, less game time, less money.

Nobody calls a draft a success because it added solid depth, even if the team is winning multiple Super Bowls.

Bill favours vets. It's worked out okay.
 
Spoiler alert: they haven't drafted well as of late. Not gonna lie the charts and stats are overwhelming.

It’s undeniable that Bill Belichick and the Patriots have recently had some lean yearsextracting value out of the draft, but not too long ago New England’s head coach was one of the best in the business at identifying young talent.

Over the last five years, the Patriots rank 26th in the NFL in value rate, a metric that represents team AV (approximate value, a Pro Football Reference metric) over total draft AV. The Patriots also rank 24th in value vs. expected rate.

The last 10 years paints a much more positive picture, however.

The Patriots rank 12th in value rate and 11th in value vs. expected rate when you add in 2011-2016.




Not gonna lie, the Patriots were awesome at drafting from 2001-2004 and 2009-2012. And exactly sucked from 2005-2008 and 2013-now with Josh McDaniels here both periods. BANISH McIdiot from all draft processes, his John Carroll roommate too Ziegler, nothing good has happened from 2013-now. FACT.

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I am glad this is being analyzed so the fan base can see that Bill was hosing us when he tried to use the success of the team as the reason for the poor roster. It has been his drafting and lack of any Qb succession plan.

This has been clear to everyone.

We went to 4 Superbowls in 5 years because we crushed the drafts earlier in the decade and we had Brady. We are struggling now because we badly missed in the drafts, and we have no good QB plans (and should have obviously kept Brady who it outplaying his contract).
 
Bottom line: if bb keeps trying to outsmart everybody and drafting off scripts, we are doomed.
He needs to lose the arrogance and let his front office help him stack the draft board!

and then, this is super important, follow the draft board!
 
This has been clear to everyone.

We went to 4 Superbowls in 5 years because we crushed the drafts earlier in the decade and we had Brady. We are struggling now because we badly missed in the drafts, and we have no good QB plans (and should have obviously kept Brady who it outplaying his contract).
Yeah, that's simply not true. Go look at the 2010-2015 drafts. Some hits and misses all over the place, like every team almost every year.
 
No one is not recognizing the last 20 years but analyzing where we are today and why.
Funny, because if I look at where the Pats are right now, position by position, I see maybe two holes outside of QB with 15m in CAP room right now, and an expected wide margin for room next year as well.

OL - check
RB - check
TE - check
DL - check
ED - check
LB - check
CB - check
S - check
 
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