Someone needs to teach the media how compensatory picks work

[FreeTedWilliams]

Wouldn't it also make sense if they planned to use his money/cap space today?

its less than 500,00

 

[rochrist]

If I hear another guy on the radio say "The Pats would have gotten a third round compensatory pick anyway for Collins if he left after the season. So they really traded him away for nothing." I am going to scream. There is no guarantee of this.In fact, the fact that Belichick did trade him away now for compensation tells me that there is little chance we would have gotten a compensatory pick for Collins if he stayed and left after the season.

What the media is missing is that there is a formula to determine picks and part of that formula not only includes the players you lost in free agency, but THE PLAYERS YOU SIGN IN FREE AGENCY. So if Collins stayed to the end of the year and left in free agency and the Pats signed a bunch of free agents who make decent to good money or one of the top free agents for really good money, the Pats could receive nothing for Collins in compensatory picks.

Why I say there is little chance the Pats would get a compensatory pick for Collins is because the Pats could go into next year's free agency with upwards to $50-60 million in cap space. I think trading Collins away now is indication that Belichick intends to be a player in free agency this upcoming offseason. He may expect that he plans to sign enough free agents that they will offset Collins when the League determines compensatory pick compensation.

So far, I have yet to hear one person the radio bring this up. They all talk like it is a give that if the Pats kept Collins this season and let him walk, it is a given they would get a 2018 third round pick.

Again, I am not a huge fan of this trade, but the talk on radio has been one sided because the radio hosts are ignorant to how compensatory picks work.

You'll have to teach that to a lot of the posters here as well.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

(A) 80 players is less than 5% of the league.
(B) Don't forget there are adjustments for playing time and post-season honors (e.g., a player who plays 90%+ of snaps . . . as an OL often does . . . apparently gets a multiplier of 1.135+; a player on IR for the entire season gets dinged about 9%).

And it's funny that you cite OTC as the source for all this, and yet reject their very conclusion that there will, in fact, be eight comp 3s, including Mack.

32 Teams, 53 Players on each team (for Salary cap purposes)= 1696 players
So 80 is almost right on 5%
Playing time is a minuscule part of the formula
Look at the projections, there is a 2 million dollar difference between what Mack and Smith got to what Osemele got. It is a very logical place to draw the line for comp picks. They have Irvin with the same exact salary as Mack listed as a 4th round pick.
They might issue 6 3rd round comp picks, but almost certainly they are not going to issue 8.

Look at the cancellation chart for the Ravens:

They lost:
Osemele 13 mil
Schaub 1.7 mil
Upshaw 1.2 mil

and signed:
Weddle 6.5 mil
Watson 3.5 mil

So they lost 14.5 million worth of players and gained 10 million, in your scenario you say that would cancel out, yet they are still projected to get a 3rd round pick.

They used Watson and Weddle to cancel out Schaub and Upshaw. What I'm saying is with 14 UFA the Patriots are gong to have plenty of guys sign elsewhere that will cancel out any UFA signings that they make.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

32 Teams, 53 Players on each team (for Salary cap purposes)= 1696 players
So 80 is almost right on 5%
Playing time is a minuscule part of the formula
Look at the projections, there is a 2 million dollar difference between what Mack and Smith got to what Osemele got. It is a very logical place to draw the line for comp picks. They have Irvin with the same exact salary as Mack listed as a 4th round pick.
They might issue 6 3rd round comp picks, but almost certainly they are not going to issue 8.

Look at the cancellation chart for the Ravens:

They lost:
Osemele 13 mil
Schaub 1.7 mil
Upshaw 1.2 mil

and signed:
Weddle 6.5 mil
Watson 3.5 mil

So they lost 14.5 million worth of players and gained 10 million, in your scenario you say that would cancel out, yet they are still projected to get a 3rd round pick.

They used Watson and Weddle to cancel out Schaub and Upshaw. What I'm saying is with 14 UFA the Patriots are gong to have plenty of guys sign elsewhere that will cancel out any UFA signings that they make.

This isn't hard. It's based on *players first*, contracts *afterwards*

Lost: 3 players
Signed: 2 players
Net: 1 player

Based on the player's average salary and the cancellation rules, the 1 that's left is Osemele, thus it's a 3rd rounder.

Now, let's change this to a slightly different hypothetical scenario:

They lost:
Osemele 13 mil
Schaub 1.7 mil
Upshaw 1.2 mil

and signed:
Weddle 6.5 mil
Watson 3.5 mil
LeGarrette Blount: 1.2 mil

Lost: 3 players
Signed: 3 players
Net: 0 players

No compensatory picks awarded. That's why there's no guarantee. This gives the Patriots the flexibility to sign a lower cost (like they usually do) UFA without worrying about screwing up the Collins comp pick.

 

[aluminum seats]

Eh. They probably woulda got one.

 

[Urgent]

Imagine if the Pats stole Collins from the Browns to help guarantee that pick is a third rounder from the compensatory selection lol...

Just to be clear, that's not how that works. If the Patriots signed Jamie Collins, the Browns would be entitled to a 2018 compensatory draft pick, should they meet the criteria. Signing Collins in 2017 would not result in a 2017 pick.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

This isn't hard. It's based on *players first*, contracts *afterwards*

Lost: 3 players
Signed: 2 players
Net: 1 player

Based on the player's average salary and the cancellation rules, the 1 that's left is Osemele, thus it's a 3rd rounder.

Now, let's change this to a slightly different hypothetical scenario:

They lost:
Osemele 13 mil
Schaub 1.7 mil
Upshaw 1.2 mil

and signed:
Weddle 6.5 mil
Watson 3.5 mil
LeGarrette Blount: 1.2 mil

Lost: 3 players
Signed: 3 players
Net: 0 players

No compensatory picks awarded. That's why there's no guarantee. This gives the Patriots the flexibility to sign a lower cost (like they usually do) UFA without worrying about screwing up the Collins comp pick.

The Pats have 14 players about to become UFA, no way they come anywhere near the number of players signed as they are going to lose.

 

[Urgent]

A quick glance shows that there are at least 80 players on current NFL rosters that make more than 9 million a year (Mack's average salary) which would be @ 21 percent of the league's players. Which means the NFL will adjust cutoff of the average salary upwards to at least 10 million or higher. This is why I say there is no chance that Cleveland gets a third round comp pick this year.

On the math:
Assume 32 teams with 55 players, or only two on IR per team. That's 1760 players.
Top 5% would be top 88 players. If you assume a few more on IR per team, that creeps up to 90 players.
80 players is not 21%, it's around 4.5% -- right in the suggested range.

Apparently there has not been a year when eight of the top 5% of the players have changed teams in free agency. It's possible the NFL will change the rules due to this.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

The Pats have 14 players about to become UFA, no way they come anywhere near the number of players signed as they are going to lose.

That's a fair argument, but if they lose 14 players, they're not going to replace them all with draft picks, UDFAs, RFAs, and other teams' cuts. Also, some UFAs won't meet the qualifying salary threshold to even be considered in the equation (Scruggs, probably Mingo).

We'll see how it plays out. I'm disappointed in the compensation too, but I do think because there is value in the guarantee. Because of that, the return is slightly higher than if they just let him play out the contract and hope for a 3rd rounder in 2018.

 

[Urgent]

The Pats have 14 players about to become UFA, no way they come anywhere near the number of players signed as they are going to lose.

The Patriots also famously focus on released players rather than UFA's.
Chris Long was released. Also Donald Brown, who they took a flier on.
Scott Chandler, Brandon Gibson, Kevin Dorsey, Chimdi Chekwa, Brandon Spikes - no compensatory restitution
Darrelle Revis, Patrick Chung, Will Smith, Darius Fleming - no compensatory restitution
And so forth. They tend to favor signing players that do not factor into the formula.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

32 Teams, 53 Players on each team (for Salary cap purposes)= 1696 players
So 80 is almost right on 5%
Playing time is a minuscule part of the formula
Look at the projections, there is a 2 million dollar difference between what Mack and Smith got to what Osemele got. It is a very logical place to draw the line for comp picks. They have Irvin with the same exact salary as Mack listed as a 4th round pick.
They might issue 6 3rd round comp picks, but almost certainly they are not going to issue 8.

You're now contradicting your own source. OTC themselves are saying "We project the cutoff is between Mack and Irvin."

As for why Mack is projected as a 3 while Bruce Irvin is listed as a 4, here's a simple scenario, based on OTC's statements: as I noted elsewhere, they multiply the salary by a factor based on playing time. It can go up 13.5%–16.5% for a player who plays more than 90% of snaps, but only 7% for a player who only plays 80% of snaps.

So now two "equal" contracts suddenly aren't. If Mack plays 90% of snaps, his adjusted contract is $10.2M, while if Irvin plays 80%, his adjusted contract is $9.63M.

 

[Rob0729]

The Pats have 14 players about to become UFA, no way they come anywhere near the number of players signed as they are going to lose.

The Pats signed 13 free agents this past offseason (2016) with far less cap money and more key players under contract than the 2017 offseason.

Here are the free agents signed this past offseason (note some of them didn't count in compensatory pick calculations because they were released):

Christian Yount
Tony Steward
Markus Kuhn
Terrance Knighton
Clay Harbor
E.J. Biggers
Nate Washington
Donald Brown
Frank Kearse
Chris Hogan
Ramon Humber
Shea McClellin
Chris Long

And after the Pats got eliminated from the playoffs last year, they had 10 UFA unsigned that January. The list includes:

Akeem Hicks
LeGarette Blount (re-signed)
James Develin (re-signed)
Nate Ebner (re-signed)
LeAdrian Waddle (re-signed)
Sealver Siliga
Ryan Wendell (retire)
Tarell Brown (out of football)
Tavon Wilson
Dane Fletcher (retired)

And here is this year's crop of UFA:

Greg Scruggs (could be out of football next year)
Marcus Cannon (probably will re-sign)
Chris Long (either re-sign or make very little money elsewhere)
Jabaal Sheard (probably will re-sign)
Sebastian Vollmer (likely to retire and not count against the Pats compensatory picks)
LeGarrette Blount (could re-sign or go elsewhere for a smaller one or two year deal)
Barkevious Mingo (unless he shows something the second half of the season, he will get the veteran minimum either here or elsewhere)
Logan Ryan (could get decent #2 money, but being benched is lowering his contract value)
Duron Haron (get a more modest deal with the Pats or elsewhere)
Martellus Bennett (will get good money, but it could be with the Pats)
Brandon Bolden (small one or two year deal either with the Pats or somewhere else)
Donta Hightower (almost certain to re-signed or tagged now that Collins is gone)
James Develin (likely to re-sign with the Pats for a modest one year deal)


And the Pats will retain quite a few of the current UFA they have. My guess is that they will only lose 5-6 free agents at most. The odds are that they will only lose one player at most who will get a significant contract. But I think the loss of Collins brings the odds of them losing Sheard, Hightower, and/or Bennett down exponentially.

 

[Froob]

Just to be clear, that's not how that works. If the Patriots signed Jamie Collins, the Browns would be entitled to a 2018 compensatory draft pick, should they meet the criteria. Signing Collins in 2017 would not result in a 2017 pick.

Never did say what year I meant .

 

[Rob0729]

The Patriots also famously focus on released players rather than UFA's.
Chris Long was released. Also Donald Brown, who they took a flier on.
Scott Chandler, Brandon Gibson, Kevin Dorsey, Chimdi Chekwa, Brandon Spikes - no compensatory restitution
Darrelle Revis, Patrick Chung, Will Smith, Darius Fleming - no compensatory restitution
And so forth. They tend to favor signing players that do not factor into the formula.

Yes, but they also never had the money they have going into this offseason. They could make a huge splash. And it isn't like they have never taken a big price non-released free agent. If they re-sign/franchise Sheard, Hightower, and Bennett; they have no incentive to only take released free agents.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

I would still love to know Cleveland's rationale for making this trade.......

They are building thru the draft and hope that either;
1) they franchise him
2)they resign him as unlikely as it may be
3) they get the compensatory if they don't sign any big name high $$ FAs.....
4) they like freelancers...........

 

[Batman]

On the math:
Assume 32 teams with 55 players, or only two on IR per team. That's 1760 players.
Top 5% would be top 88 players. If you assume a few more on IR per team, that creeps up to 90 players.
80 players is not 21%, it's around 4.5% -- right in the suggested range.

Apparently there has not been a year when eight of the top 5% of the players have changed teams in free agency. It's possible the NFL will change the rules due to this.

You also have to account for practice squad players so that's at least 320 but even if they are only with a team for a week they would count as a player. I seem to remember the total number of registered players was around 2500 per season (I can't guarantee that figure, read it in an article at some point) that means Mack is in the top 3.2% and totally in the range of a 3rd round pick if OTC is correct

 

[patfanken]

According to just about everything I've read, the Pats are going to have around $65MM in salary cap space, and perhaps more if Volmer retires. To think that they won't sign most of our UFA's and have a TON of caps space to be serious players in the FA market at every level is just plain dumb.

Rob, dead right on his OP that the media has absolutely no clue as to how the compensatory picks are awarded. Whether it's just plain ignorance, or design, they don't know what they are talking about.

Besides its is much better story if the narrative is that the Pats gave up on Collins for less that what they could have gotten if they kept him. It allows them the best of both worlds. They can tweak BB and his reputation of being so smart, and at the same time speculate wildly about Collins doing drugs, hanging out with the wrong crowd, being a locker room cancer, was playing badly, or wanting too much money.

All great talking points, and much better than having to talk about the rather dry calculation of getting SOMETHING for sure in 2017 as opposed to HOPING for something in 2018, for a player you knew for sure was not coming back. And thinking you can survive the loss for THIS season with the players you have on the roster.

To my mind the key element here is the last one. This deal is never done UNLESS they felt that Collins' loss could be survived by the team. In other words, with the players in hand, the Pats defense would not be materially worse without Jamie Collins for the next 11 games. Which tells me that Collins, for whatever reason, was NOT playing well this season. And if the talk shows really wanted something to talk about, it should focus WHY that was. (or us for that matter)

 

[Edelmania]

Also, a team can only receive 4 compensatory picks so it is also still possible that the patriots lose enough players to get 4 picks.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Here's a poor attempt by Ryan Hannable to talk about it :

Bill Belichick gives strange answer when it comes to Jamie Collins compensation

This response could indicate Belichick feels Collins will not get a contract this offseason worth a third-round compensatory pick, or he doesn’t think the Patriots will be big spenders this coming offseason when it comes to signing free agents, as all those play roles in how compensatory picks are given out.

The bold part is stupid. Not saying the Patriots will be big spenders but if Bill thinks we won't get a #3 that would suggest we WILL sign offsetting FA, he says the opposite.