Someone needs to teach the media how compensatory picks work

[Rob0729]

If I hear another guy on the radio say "The Pats would have gotten a third round compensatory pick anyway for Collins if he left after the season. So they really traded him away for nothing." I am going to scream. There is no guarantee of this.In fact, the fact that Belichick did trade him away now for compensation tells me that there is little chance we would have gotten a compensatory pick for Collins if he stayed and left after the season.

What the media is missing is that there is a formula to determine picks and part of that formula not only includes the players you lost in free agency, but THE PLAYERS YOU SIGN IN FREE AGENCY. So if Collins stayed to the end of the year and left in free agency and the Pats signed a bunch of free agents who make decent to good money or one of the top free agents for really good money, the Pats could receive nothing for Collins in compensatory picks.

Why I say there is little chance the Pats would get a compensatory pick for Collins is because the Pats could go into next year's free agency with upwards to $50-60 million in cap space. I think trading Collins away now is indication that Belichick intends to be a player in free agency this upcoming offseason. He may expect that he plans to sign enough free agents that they will offset Collins when the League determines compensatory pick compensation.

So far, I have yet to hear one person the radio bring this up. They all talk like it is a give that if the Pats kept Collins this season and let him walk, it is a given they would get a 2018 third round pick.

Again, I am not a huge fan of this trade, but the talk on radio has been one sided because the radio hosts are ignorant to how compensatory picks work.

 

[Froob]

Imagine if the Pats stole Collins from the Browns to help guarantee that pick is a third rounder from the compensatory selection lol...

 

[PatsFan2]

So Rob is there a possibility that Cleveland gets a Conditional Third next draft?

 

[PF_SU]

They don't get the ideal gas law and you think they'll get how compensatory picks work?

So Rob is there a possibility that Cleveland gets a Conditional Third next draft?

Most likely if Alex Mack plays more than 80% of the snaps for the Falcons.

 

[BelichickFan]

I suspect Collins would have gotten us a #3 as we could lose a good number of FA and he will likely be in the top group of FA contract signings. Neither, though, as you say, is certain and it's irresponsible to state as a virtual fact that his loss would have guaranteed us a #3 pick.

 

[fair catch fryar]

Even if they do know, it doesn't matter because the likes of Felger will use it to promote their crappy talk shows.

If a fan that actually has followed BB through his time with the Pats hasn't figured out that most of the time BB is one or two steps ahead in personnel and game management moves then they haven't been paying attention or are just plain stupid.

 

[archstanton543]

So far, I have yet to hear one person the radio bring this up. They all talk like it is a give that if the Pats kept Collins this season and let him walk, it is a given they would get a 2018 third round pick.

Again, I am not a huge fan of this trade, but the talk on radio has been one sided because the radio hosts are ignorant to how compensatory picks work.

Well, there's your problem right there. You're listening to sports talk radio.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

So Rob is there a possibility that Cleveland gets a Conditional Third next draft?

Absolutely NOT! Mack has the eighth highest average salary of all the UFA signed by other teams last off season. The exact formula is unknown, but what everyone agrees upon is that average yearly salary is the #1 determining factor. The NFL has never issued more than 4-5 3rd round comp picks, there is virtually no chance of Cleveland getting on this year, the NFL would have to issue 8 third round comp picks for that to happen!

And YES, the Pats would almost certainly get a 3rd round comp pick for Collins if he left after the season via free agency. If Collins signed a contract worth @ 11 million a year. Does anyone think the Pats are going to go out and sign a player for an average of $11 million a year? The Pats have 14 players set to become UFA at the end of the year, so any signings the Pats did make, would be off set by the Pats players signing someplace else.

So basically the Pats traded Collins for less compensation than they would have received if they kept him. The only way this trade makes any sense is that the Pats are expecting to lose way more UFAs than they sign this off season, and since the league will only issue up to 4 comp picks to any team, they traded away Collins now, knowing that they are still looking at getting the max 4 comp picks.

I would still love to know Cleveland's rationale for making this trade.......

 

[IllegalContact]

media is allergic to facts

 

[TheFlyingWedge]

Well, there's your problem right there. You're listening to sports talk radio.

Not only do most of them know nothing about football, they don't really talk much about sports in general. Instead, they talk about themselves. Who were you listening to by the way?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Absolutely NOT! Mack has the eighth highest average salary of all the UFA signed by other teams last off season. The exact formula is unknown, but what everyone agrees upon is that average yearly salary is the #1 determining factor. The NFL has never issued more than 4-5 3rd round comp picks, there is virtually no chance of Cleveland getting on this year, the NFL would have to issue 8 third round comp picks for that to happen!

This is like arguing "Well, BB has never drafted a WR in the first round, so he won't draft one this year."

By all accounts, there is no limit on the number of picks in any given round (other than the overall limit of 32). The cutoffs are predetermined in terms of salaries (e.g., to qualify for the formula as a signing or a loss, a player's salary has to be above the median league salary); if there are eight players above the cutoff, then eight teams get third-rounders.

 

[Rob0729]

Absolutely NOT! Mack has the eighth highest average salary of all the UFA signed by other teams last off season. The exact formula is unknown, but what everyone agrees upon is that average yearly salary is the #1 determining factor. The NFL has never issued more than 4-5 3rd round comp picks, there is virtually no chance of Cleveland getting on this year, the NFL would have to issue 8 third round comp picks for that to happen!

And YES, the Pats would almost certainly get a 3rd round comp pick for Collins if he left after the season via free agency. If Collins signed a contract worth @ 11 million a year. Does anyone think the Pats are going to go out and sign a player for an average of $11 million a year? The Pats have 14 players set to become UFA at the end of the year, so any signings the Pats did make, would be off set by the Pats players signing someplace else.

So basically the Pats traded Collins for less compensation than they would have received if they kept him. The only way this trade makes any sense is that the Pats are expecting to lose way more UFAs than they sign this off season, and since the league will only issue up to 4 comp picks to any team, they traded away Collins now, knowing that they are still looking at getting the max 4 comp picks.

I would still love to know Cleveland's rationale for making this trade.......

First, who knows if the Pats would sign one player for $11 million a year or not. No one thought they would pay Adalius Thomas what they did (granted that didn't work). Or Roosevelt Colvin in 2003 (although he took less to play for the Pats). They don't typically do it, but it isn't like they have never paid big money to a free agent.

Second, the Pats don't have to sign one player for $11 million a year to reduce or eliminate the compensation for Collins. A bunch of second tier free agent signings can reduce or eliminate the compensation. It isn't that the Pats only lose compensation for Collins only if they sign one player who signs for equal or greater value.

Third, most of those 14 free agents are players who will be re-signed for cheap money or will get cheap money somewhere else and won't be much of a factor in compensatory pick formula. What are Mingo, Bolden, Develin, or Gregg Scruggs going to get on the open market? Not much more than the veteran minimum with incentives.

Fourth, letting Collins go exponentially increases the chances the Pats re-sign or franchise Hightower, Bennett, and Sheard (the only free agents who are going to get real money). At this point, I expect them to retain at least two of the three. Possibly all three.

Fifth, Vollmer is likely to retire.

Sixth, Long, Branch, and Blount are looking more modest one or two year deals either with the Pats or elsewhere because of their age.

So all that said and done, the Pats are only likely to lose one higher priced free agent this offseason and that isn't even a guarantee now that Collins is gone. So if the Pats are players in free agency, there is a decent chance that they might not have gotten anything for Collins if he stayed.

 

[Koma]

This isn't really surprising. Discussing the compensatory pick formula requires some thought and consideration of multiple factors. That doesn't play well on sports talk radio.

Also, think about the fact that, at the end of the Patriots-Bills game, the announcers spent a minute or so discussing why Rex Ryan didn't challenge a non-TD call even though the "No challenges by coaches inside the final 2 minutes" rule has been in place for over 15 years.

With that level thinking still prevalent, there's no way we're going to hear an informed discussion of compensatory draft picks.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

This is like arguing "Well, BB has never drafted a WR in the first round, so he won't draft one this year."

By all accounts, there is no limit on the number of picks in any given round (other than the overall limit of 32). The cutoffs are predetermined in terms of salaries (e.g., to qualify for the formula as a signing or a loss, a player's salary has to be above the median league salary); if there are eight players above the cutoff, then eight teams get third-rounders.

What the league does is they take a snapshot of the entire leagues average salary at the end of the year, and then they determine where the cut offs are for the comp picks. The average yearly salary of the UFA signed must be in the top 5% of the average league salary in order to be awarded a 3rd round pick.

A quick glance shows that there are at least 80 players on current NFL rosters that make more than 9 million a year (Mack's average salary) which would be @ 21 percent of the league's players. Which means the NFL will adjust cutoff of the average salary upwards to at least 10 million or higher. This is why I say there is no chance that Cleveland gets a third round comp pick this year.


Over the Cap explains it quite well:

This suggests that a snapshot of the entire league’s rosters at the end of the regular season should be taken (including at least the active 53-man roster and all players on injured reserve), and adjust their APYs as explained above to product a ranked list, sorted by adjusted APY in descending order. While it is still not fully determined where the cutoffs lie on this ranked list, looking at previous compensatory pick awardings suggest that the cutoffs lie on certain percentile ranks on this list, conjectured as follows:

Round Highest Percentile Lowest Percentile
3rd 100th 95th (top 5%)
4th 95th 90th (top 10%)
5th 90th 86th (top 14%)
6th 86th 78.5th (top 21.5%)
7th 78.5th 52.5th (top 47.5%)
Non-CFA 52.5th 0th

In simpler terms, a UFA that changed teams must rank within the top half of all players in adjusted APY to qualify as a CFA. Additionally, a player must rank in the top 5% to be given a 3rd round value, within the top 5% to 10% to have a 4th round value, and so on.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

A quick glance shows that there are at least 80 players on current NFL rosters that make more than 9 million a year (Mack's average salary) which would be @ 21 percent of the league's players. Which means the NFL will adjust cutoff of the average salary upwards to at least 10 million or higher. This is why I say there is no chance that Cleveland gets a third round comp pick this year.

(A) 80 players is less than 5% of the league.
(B) Don't forget there are adjustments for playing time and post-season honors (e.g., a player who plays 90%+ of snaps . . . as an OL often does . . . apparently gets a multiplier of 1.135+; a player on IR for the entire season gets dinged about 9%).

And it's funny that you cite OTC as the source for all this, and yet reject their very conclusion that there will, in fact, be eight comp 3s, including Mack.

 

[Rob0729]

In all seriousness, what is the big deal if it is a 3rd round compensatory or a fourth rounder? Odds are the Browns are going to have the first or second pick in the fourth round. We are talking a couple of picks difference.

 

[wizwor]

So basically the Pats traded Collins for less compensation than they would have received if they kept him.

Wouldn't it also make sense if they planned to use his money/cap space today?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

In all seriousness, what is the big deal if it is a 3rd round compensatory or a fourth rounder? Odds are the Browns are going to have the first or second pick in the fourth round. We are talking a couple of picks difference.

Well, it's a 2017 3rd or a 2018 4th, because the Pats would lose a 2017 4th to Herr Goodell.

 

[pdangle]

Wouldn't we also need to wait another year to get the pick anyway?

3rdc rounder this year >> 3rdc rounder + 1 year

 

[luuked]

Absolutely NOT! Mack has the eighth highest average salary of all the UFA signed by other teams last off season. The exact formula is unknown, but what everyone agrees upon is that average yearly salary is the #1 determining factor. The NFL has never issued more than 4-5 3rd round comp picks, there is virtually no chance of Cleveland getting on this year, the NFL would have to issue 8 third round comp picks for that to happen!

And YES, the Pats would almost certainly get a 3rd round comp pick for Collins if he left after the season via free agency. If Collins signed a contract worth @ 11 million a year. Does anyone think the Pats are going to go out and sign a player for an average of $11 million a year? The Pats have 14 players set to become UFA at the end of the year, so any signings the Pats did make, would be off set by the Pats players signing someplace else.

So basically the Pats traded Collins for less compensation than they would have received if they kept him. The only way this trade makes any sense is that the Pats are expecting to lose way more UFAs than they sign this off season, and since the league will only issue up to 4 comp picks to any team, they traded away Collins now, knowing that they are still looking at getting the max 4 comp picks.

I would still love to know Cleveland's rationale for making this trade.......

For the love of god can you stop spreading this nonsense?

If Mack plays above 80% of his snaps the Browns will get a third round compensatory pick if you like it or not.

I dont know how often I have to point you towards all experts that have continuously perfectly called the compensatory picks and they all say the same about Mack.

Your entire paragraph with the 11m example perfectly shows that you dont understand how compensatory picks either. It is not the amount of money but the number of qualifiying FA signed. So even a 3m signing could cancel out Collins leaving for a 11m contract.

So please just stop misinforming everyone here.