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Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by patfanken, May 12, 2019.

  1. patfanken

    patfanken PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Common wisdom....and most of media keeps telling us what a big loss not having Gronk back this year is going to be. I mean they are literally coming at us with "dire times", and "end of days" scenarios. There talk that his retirement will have the impact of the "once in 500 years flood". In other words, the world as we once knew it will never ever be the same :eek: ....or will it?

    But here's the thing. I'd like to put out there a DIFFERENT supposition. One that proposes that the Pats offense this season will NOT miss Gronk nearly as much as its been predicted. Remember this is coming from the guy who was literally apoplectic when NONE of the 4 very good TE prospects that were withing our reach was taken. I couldn't IMAGINE why this OBVIOUS omission had occurred. It seemed like no one in that draft room seemed to know that Gronk was gone. And if you read any of the various draft threads I posted on.....well you got my opinion on the matter. ;)

    But whenever you think the Pats have acted in a strange way you always have to reset and think, "WHY wasn't TE a big priority for Bill? And here are some the the facts that may have gone into his thought process.

    Lets look at three numbers that have been pretty much lost in all the "Gronk is gone" panic.

    47- 682-3

    These, in order, are the number of passes Gronk caught, his receiving yds, and TD's. Clearly Gronk was diminished for most of last season. But his number are his numbers. So why should we think that our passing offense will suddenly fall apart because Gronk's 2018's production will be gone. Based on last year's TE production the bar wasn't set very high for this year's group.

    All our TE's combined for just 3 TD's. That is THREE touchdowns in 19 games. Am I being unreasonable to expect that the TE group as it stands right now should give us more this season. Right, I agree

    Last season all our TE's combined for about 750 yards. Is it unreasonable to think that our current group might do as well....if not better. Watson and Lacosse had 650 last season, and ASJ only played 4 games last season (and had an additional 95 yds. So isn't it reasonable to think that in one of the most successful offenses in the league and the GOAT at QB, these guys could at least DUPLICATE what they did last year. BTW- Last season, in fewer games, they managed to have 4 TD's.

    I know Gronk add ed greatly to the run game and pass protection. I know his locker room presence will be greatly missed. I am NOT saying that Gronk's retirement isn't going to have an impact on the team. But by the middle of the season, no one was formulating their defense based on where Gronk was any longer. In the end what I am saying is that it's not going to be nearly the impact that its being implied.

    Think about it. We didn't lose the guy from 2010-2015. The Pats have been to 3 straight superbowls with Gronk averaging just under 5 TD/yr. That is a NOT a high bar to reach for whatever group the Pats end up putting out there.

    The offense will continue to evolve to fit the talent that they wind up with as they build this team. But to think the passing attack is in trouble because we lost 700 odd yards and 3 TDs from last year is simply lazy thinking. Though I admit that I thought "lazily" when I first heard the news and then didn't see the response in the draft I envisioned. And while I will never understand the need to trade UP to draft a punter in the 5th round, I fully understand now why Bill didn't panic, while the rest of us did.

    Just sayin'.
     
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  2. DropKickFlutie

    DropKickFlutie 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    A 2RB offense will help out 42 year old Brady. And agree we don't need a miracle TE, a standard good blocking 5td catching TE is sufficient. Harry is the new big passing target.
     
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  3. luuked

    luuked Pro Bowl Player

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    Except this is not true.

    He was one of the major chess piece of this offense through his entire tenure. Just look how the Rams had no idea how to match up with us in 22. That was because of Gronk.

    Without a player like him the other team will have it way easier to direct personnel. Dont confuse the stat sheet with impact on games.
     
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  4. signbabybrady

    signbabybrady Pro Bowl Player

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    We're not replacing Gronk but I think this offense has plenty of talent for Brady to work with. If Sony continues to develope and Harry works out then this offense could/should be better than last year.
     
  5. aluminum seats

    aluminum seats Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I don’t really see much of this end of days stuff you mention. Obviously a loss though, and beyond just his numbers.
     
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  6. 1960Pats

    1960Pats PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The Pats won a title without Gronk and I'm confident that they can do it again. As long as they have Brady I like their chances.
     
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  7. Pat the Pats Fan

    Pat the Pats Fan In the Starting Line-Up

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    I agree with the numbers, as a pass catching tight end, Gronkie, had declined from his earlier dominance. However, he was one of the best blockers ever, and his presence on the field had to be accounted for by the defense. He created mis matches by just being on the field, in passing, and in blocking. That made him unique. The numbers he put up recently, can and will be replicated, but his presence to disrupt a defensive scheme will not be easily replaced.
     
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  8. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    We may be expecting too much from Harry as a rookie, I am saying this as sokmeone who thinks he has pro bowl potential as a WR.
    That being said we have enough weapons for Brady to thrive.
     
  9. mosslost

    mosslost Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Thank you for the analysis. I actually think they will be as strong as always.

    The one thing though I wonder is the fact that the Defenses had to always be aware of Gronk, even when his production is less. (that is likely partly why)

    I wonder if there is any evidence that defenses were able to not double him as much, etc.

    Either way, he won't be on the field now (most likely), so that element will be gone.
     
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  10. Brandon_Cox

    Brandon_Cox On the Game Day Roster

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    Bill tried to trade Gronk to Detroit before last season. He's prepared for life after Gronk, even if we're not.
     
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  11. robertweathers

    robertweathers PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    They will miss his blocking and those "rising to the moment" plays great players make but they will be fine.
     
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  12. luuked

    luuked Pro Bowl Player

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    And none of this is relevant to this discussion.

    Of course there is a life after Gronk and obviously BB and McDaniels will figure it out and hand Brady gameplans that will give him other reliable presnap reads and ways to put him into favorable personnel mismatch situations.

    But if you wanna reply to my post at least stick to script and don't move the goalposts. This was about Gronk not being important anymore and opponents not planning around him.
     
    Last edited: May 12, 2019
  13. PatsWickedPissah

    PatsWickedPissah PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Supporting Ken's position
    2019 offense not designed with Gronk type TE in mind; designed around RBs and new red Zone options instead
    Against Ken's position
    Opponent DCs do not have to game plan how to cover Gronk's almost unique attributes (block, release from block, catch pass, drag defenders)
     
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  14. SBLIII

    SBLIII 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    The Patriots averaged 27 points in the 29 regular season games Gronk missed and won 77% of their games without Gronk.

    Losing Gronk (especially the 2018 version) has little to no effect on the Patriots success going forward.
     
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  15. BUSTAMOVE

    BUSTAMOVE Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Gronk is one of my all time favs and the best ever at his position. He will be missed. He cannot be replaced at his position. We featured the TE position because of his talent and Defenses had to game plan for it.

    With him gone we now will feature other areas of our Offense that we have built to be a strength that teams will have to game plan for. We won three SB’s with Fauria and /Rutledge-Wiggins at TE.

    We replace the Joker with the Riddler. Same Bat time same Bat channel...........
     
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  16. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    To me you just have to look at 20 years of history. When there is change this team adapts. We had fans of this team screaming in this board last year that the team had horrendous flaws and their best case was one and done. One of the most prescient comments I’ve ever heard from Belichick was early in his tenure when he said something to the effect of they never try to replace players and rebuild to what they had in the past, instead they build the new version. Building a team that includes the GOAT TE and one that doesn’t are 2 very different things. Clearly the gronk years made the TE a key piece while the post gronk years will diminish the role and place focus in other areas.
     
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  17. 363839

    363839 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    No worries. We got Ben Watson coming back!
     
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  18. Actual Pats Fan

    Actual Pats Fan PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    When Daniel Graham left us in free agency in '07, I was concerned about blocking from that position, which is always an underrated but important factor. We had Watson and a couple other guys and that was it. Signing Welker the same day from the fins was intriguing, but we figured to improve that position regardless.

    From ESPN:

    On another front, a source close to Bill Belichick reacted with skepticism Monday to reports that the New England coach is "enamored of" Randy Moss and might consider acquiring the Oakland Raiders wide receiver in a trade.

    Said the source: "I'd be very cautious about how I treat second- or third-hand information about what's going on in the mind of Belichick when it comes to this stuff. Unless you're hearing it directly [from Belichick], you're taking a big leap. It happens every year with the Patriots, about free agency and draft plans, a lot of agendas and speculation that rarely end up happening."

    So that became reality, and we all know what happened. And while we should have, the fact is we didn't win the Super Bowl.

    Bottom line: Gronk retiring is a tremendous loss, it will take hard work and effort to be as effective now without him.

    That said, last season was long and hard, and I've been hoping we have a little smoother ride in '19. But it won't be easy. It never is.
     
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  19. patfanken

    patfanken PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'm not putting a lot of expectations on Harry. In 20 years here NO rookie WR has gotten over 520 yds.

    So, while the situation is lining up for Harry to play a bigger role in the offense than most rookies have, anything in the 5-6OO yard range would be a GREAT rookie season relative to the Pats. And while its not likely going to get him any post season honors, it will be a great sign for his long term future development.

    In other words, anyone who think's Harry is gong to become Brady's "go to guy" and be a 1000 yd type receiver in his first year is gong to be disappointed. Let the kid be a rookie this year, and not overly pressure him with grandiose expectations.
     
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  20. aluminum seats

    aluminum seats Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Have you told @Joker about this? o_O
     
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