On defense:
Teams that run at the Patriots cause them trouble. Many teams have fallen behind and stopped running.
In the last Jets game, they ran down the field fairly effectively on their first series, and then turned to the pass. Even in the loss, they had good results with the run. Cleveland clearly dominated on the ground. Other teams have run well against the Patriots.
Further, the Jets did a good job against the Indy defense by committing to the run. They tried to hold the ball and tire the defense.
The Patriots have fewer DL rotational players than they like.
The Patriots like to confuse less-experienced QB's with exotic coverages.
I would expect the Jets to run Greene and Tomlinson throughout the game, keep the game out of Sanchez's hands, and try to keep the score close. That's their best chance to win.
The Patriots need to be able to stop the run early. Hopefully the return of Spikes helps. Hopefully the return of Cunningham helps. Hopefully Pryor and Love can contribute. The Pats should be in slightly better shape to defend the run than they were two weeks ago.
On offense, it's not really possible to match up Crumpler against Revis, as some have suggested. The Jets determine who Revis covers. But he can only take out one guy. Cromartie is very good against big speedy receivers; he's not nearly as effective against a player like Branch. Further, Woodhead, when on the field with Branch and Welker, adds a third shifty receiver that's a match-up problem for the Jets.
The Jets defense has not been as effective, as much as I have seen, against screens given their exotic all-out blitzes. If the Pats can see them and throw right over the rush, they can slash that defense. Similarly, when the Jets drop back against the Pats shifty receivers they are similarly at a disadvantage.
