So how do you all see our FA losses impacting our draft?

[bosfan]

Think it is obvious now that we will be using all (or most) of our picks in order to restock the team which we should be able to do rather nicely. Trading down probably still in order but doubt we will lose any high picks to trade up.

 

[DaBruinz]

I think that we will see the Pats focus on OLB/DE early (something that I had mentioned as a distinct possibility back in January and February). I think that WR will be had in the 2nd or 3rd round and again in the 5th round. I also think that we will see TE as a pick unless the Pats can convince someone like Aaron Shea to come in and be the 3rd TE.

Its going to be about best value available at every pick. And that Value is going to be based on numerous things, including, but not limited to, team need, player's tangibles, player's intangibles.

I could very easily see the Pats drafting Manny Lawson, Jason Avant, Bernie Pollard, Joe Klopfenstein, Daryn Colledge, Matt Bernstein, Brian Calhoun, Jonathan Orr, and a kicker. if this happened, I would be happier than a pig in you know what.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Think it is obvious now that we will be using all (or most) of our picks in order to restock the team which we should be able to do rather nicely. Trading down probably still in order but doubt we will lose any high picks to trade up.

In answer to the question, "how do you all see our FA losses impacting our draft," I can only speak to today's status with numerous changes coming in the weeks ahead.

My current draft target board (needs for some of you):

OL depth: We have some young reserves for the interior line (Hochstein, Tucker, Mruczkowski, Yates). We have Kaczur and Britt for young OTs. We also have a G and a T in NFLE. RG is unclaimed, RT is the only other position in flux, assuming Koppen and Light have no problem with their recovery. We know Hochstein can start at G & C and give us good results, Tucker, Mruc, and Yates have been tested in spot duty only. Shopping list: OT, OG/OC

LB depth: We have three proven veterans for four slots (Rosie, Tedy, Vrabes), we have two transitioning players who will have a chance to prove they can start and succeed (Monty and Tully), we have two young ILBs (Claridge and Alexander), and we have two Special Teams demons (Izzo and Davis). Shopping List: DE/OLB, DE/ILB, STs specialists.

WR depth: We have one proven smurf WR, one KR/WR, and one young smurf WR. We have three WRs in NFLE and one I/R mystery man. Shopping list: Possession WR, PR/WR

CB depth: We have three veteran CBs (Poole, Poteat, and Hawkins), we have three young CBs who have stepped up big, (Samuel, Gay, and Hobbs), and we have one NFLE CB (Spann). My best guess is that Poole is healthy and the right price, he and probably Hobbs look to have the best chance at winning a starting job. Gay and Samuel look to be next on the depth chart, With Poteat and Hawkins as STs depth. Shopping list: A CB to groom as Poole's replacement.

TE depth: BB wants a number three TE, preferably one who can move to number two if Graham isn't extended.

RB depth: We have a feature back (Dillon), a third down back (Faulk), and a utility back (Pass). Shopping list: Another utility back/PR/KR combo.

DE/NT depth: We have the best D-line in the game with Warren, Wilfork, and Seymour, and Green as the third down specialist. Hill is okay as a back-up behind Seymour, Wright showed nice promise as a utility DL, Klecko also has value as a utility DL, Thomas came off the Practice Squad, but isn't settled. Shopping list: NT depth, DE depth

1 OT, 1 OC/OG, 1-3 LBs, 1 CB, 2-3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 RB, 1 DL = 10-12 'needs' to address with 11 picks (1, 2, 3a, 3b, 4a, 4b, 5, 6, 2 projected comps, 7).

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I think that every loss and every addition impacts the Pats draft. I also think that anticipated future cuts (Moulds????) impact who's name BB calls later next month.
The real question is what does BB percieve as the greatest need versus greatest value. All things being equal if Lienhart fell to #21, he would be great value at that pick, but that doesn't fill a need.
WR Holmes could easily fall to #21. WR is a huge need, does he represent good value at #21?????
I think the onl;y thing we can count on from now until the draft is a constant change of percieved needs versus implied value.
I'm still very confident BB will pick people that make me scratch my head in April and go "wow decent pick" in August.

 

[jct]

Excellent analysis last 2 posters.
Personally at this point I'd like to see:
1) LB C Greenway
2) CB R Marshall
3) RB Addai
3) WR Avant
4) S
4) OL
5,6,6,6,7) WR,NT,TE,LB,KR/ST

 

[InBillITrust]

BTW, what do you think are the odds that the Pats will draft a kicker?

 

[big mike]

I think that we will see the Pats focus on OLB/DE early (something that I had mentioned as a distinct possibility back in January and February). I think that WR will be had in the 2nd or 3rd round and again in the 5th round. I also think that we will see TE as a pick unless the Pats can convince someone like Aaron Shea to come in and be the 3rd TE.

I could see TE on day 2, but not day 1. Too many other needs that rank higher.

Its going to be about best value available at every pick. And that Value is going to be based on numerous things, including, but not limited to, team need, player's tangibles, player's intangibles.

That's somewhat of a contradiction. The phrase "Best value" tends to mean the best player at that draft position, independent of team need. Generally people feel that teams draft either based on best player/value, or based on team needs (which means taking the best players they can get that suit their needs, rather than just the best overall player at each draft pick).

 

[big mike]

Excellent analysis last 2 posters.
Personally at this point I'd like to see:
1) LB C Greenway
2) CB R Marshall
3) RB Addai
3) WR Avant

Sure, that would be nice - but it's highly doubtful that Addai slips even to our pick in the second round (53?), no way he goes into the third, short of some calamitous injury between now and the draft. R Marshall is also pretty unlikely to make it to our 2nd round pick.

I'd like to see LB, RB, WR, and CB with the first four picks too - just don't think it's realistic to expect Addai to be available there, or Marshall in the 2nd. I don't think Greenway is the right fit in NE either - I'd prefer Manny Lawson (if he slips) or Bobby Carpenter (might be able to trade down a bit and still get him, which could let us move up in round 2 to take a stab at Addai).

 

[jct]

Sure, that would be nice - but it's highly doubtful that Addai slips even to our pick in the second round (53?), no way he goes into the third, short of some calamitous injury between now and the draft. R Marshall is also pretty unlikely to make it to our 2nd round pick.

I'd like to see LB, RB, WR, and CB with the first four picks too - just don't think it's realistic to expect Addai to be available there, or Marshall in the 2nd. I don't think Greenway is the right fit in NE either - I'd prefer Manny Lawson (if he slips) or Bobby Carpenter (might be able to trade down a bit and still get him, which could let us move up in round 2 to take a stab at Addai).

Anything this early is just a projection...
I think Greenway has the most upside
I think Marshall has the most development in a similar system,but this pick could go WR Stovall
I much prefer to have a killer defense and use round 3 to grab 2 offensive guys BPA

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

BTW, what do you think are the odds that the Pats will draft a kicker?

Very Low......