So do Patriots play starters vs. Houston?

[upstater1]

I'm not worried about Balto; I want to avoid Pitt. I didn't think there was any scenario where if Houston wins Pitt gets in the playoffs? I guess if Houston wins and Balto & NJY lose and Pitt wins Pitt gets in?

Nope, it would be Den and Houston instead of Pitt.

If Houston wins, then Pitt needs the Jets, Baltimore and Den to lose.

That's why a Houston win is the worst thing possible for Pitt.

Pitt would take a Den win, or Jets win, or Balt win before a Houston win.

 

[Triggerfish]

I'm not worried about Balto; I want to avoid Pitt. I didn't think there was any scenario where if Houston wins Pitt gets in the playoffs? I guess if Houston wins and Balto & NJY lose and Pitt wins Pitt gets in?

The only way Pittsburgh can still get into the playoffs with a Houston WIN is if Baltimore, Jets, and Denver ALL lose.

 

[Oceanviewer1]

Play the starters. If the score dictates that Brady, Moss, Welker can be pulled, do it.

 

[upstater1]

The only way Pittsburgh can still get into the playoffs with a Houston WIN is if Baltimore, Jets, and Denver ALL lose.

The NFL is kind of like the NCAA. It doesn't matter if you lose to the crud teams, as long as you beat the best teams on your schedule. This means that if the top teams overlook you and you upset them, your postseason resume looks better than a team that didn't beat the best teams but also didn't lose the worst games.

So, you could beat Indy, San Diego, Cincy and New England, lose to Cle, St Louis, Seattle and KC, and that would help you.

Not to mention common opponents which is just a crazy nutty tiebreaker.

Watch this:

Say you're in the AFC South and have the following games in common with Baltimore: Oakland (both of you won), Indy (both of you lost), New England (both of you lost), Cleve (both of you won).

Who gets in?

Well, Baltimore does because they played Cle twice within the division, they won both games, and therefore have a higher %.

if you're in a division with crud teams like St. Lou or Detroit, and you sweep them, half the teams in your conference are at a disadvantage in this tiebreaker.

It's a totally preposterous and stupid tiebreaker. Words can't begin to describe how asinine it is. of all the tiebreakers, common game % is the worst.

I would change the rule so that if you beat a team twice in your division, only one of the wins counts (and vice versa for losses).

 

[Triggerfish]

The NFL is kind of like the NCAA. It doesn't matter if you lose to the crud teams, as long as you beat the best teams on your schedule. This means that if the top teams overlook you and you upset them, your postseason resume looks better than a team that didn't beat the best teams but also didn't lose the worst games.

So, you could beat Indy, San Diego, Cincy and New England, lose to Cle, St Louis, Seattle and KC, and that would help you.

Not to mention common opponents which is just a crazy nutty tiebreaker.

Watch this:

Say you're in the AFC South and have the following games in common with Baltimore: Oakland (both of you won), Indy (both of you lost), New England (both of you lost), Cleve (both of you won).

Who gets in?

Well, Baltimore does because they played Cle twice within the division, they won both games, and therefore have a higher %.

if you're in a division with crud teams like St. Lou or Detroit, and you sweep them, half the teams in your conference are at a disadvantage in this tiebreaker.

It's a totally preposterous and stupid tiebreaker. Words can't begin to describe how asinine it is. of all the tiebreakers, common game % is the worst.

I would change the rule so that if you beat a team twice in your division, only one of the wins counts (and vice versa for losses).

I agree. And if you played a team twice and SPLIT, that team shouldn't qualify for the tie-breaker's minimum of four common games UNLESS the other team involved also had the opportunity to play them twice (which I suppose wouldn't happen unless in the same division, but you get my drift). A team shouldn't benefit because their schedule provided the luxury of playing a really crappy team TWICE. It's ridiculous for sure.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Alright, I get it that if we lose Pitt is screwed. Too bad.

Two questions for those of you who know a whole lot more about it than do I:

1) What has to happen next Sunday for us to get the number three seed?

2) Is it true that if the Ravens and Jests both win, they are in the Playoffs as five and six seeds respectively?

Thanks!

 

[supafly]

Alright, I get it that if we lose Pitt is screwed. Too bad.

Two questions for those of you who know a whole lot more about it than do I:

1) What has to happen next Sunday for us to get the number three seed?

2) Is it true that if the Ravens and Jests both win, they are in the Playoffs as five and six seeds respectively?

Thanks!

Hey there pfs74.

In regards to the #3 seeding: If MIN beats CHI tonight, we'd have a 5 game lead in SoV over Cincy. So the only way we wouldn't get the #3 is pretty much if NE lost, and Cincy won. Technically, if CHI upset MIN tonight, Cincy would creep to within 4 games in SoV (if both were tied) and could still 'technically' get it over us if a bunch of other things happen on Sun, even if both win or both lose.

But, for the most part, we will get the #3 with a win, or if we and CIN both lose. The SoV comes down to if we're both tied with the same record, and right now, we have a lead that should increase to 5 games as long as MIN wins tonight.

For your next question, no--you have it the other way around.

The NYJ get the #5, while BAL gets the #6. It's pretty much impossible for us to play the NYJ in round 1, that's why if BAL wins we'll play them. (unless we lost and CIN won to change our seed)

Hope this helps.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Alright, I get it that if we lose Pitt is screwed. Too bad.

Two questions for those of you who know a whole lot more about it than do I:

1) What has to happen next Sunday for us to get the number three seed?

2) Is it true that if the Ravens and Jests both win, they are in the Playoffs as five and six seeds respectively?

Thanks!

1) a Pats win and/or a Bengals loss. Either woud lock up #3.

2) Yup- Jets and Ravens both control their own destinies. Everyone else needs a win and help.

 

[upstater1]

Hey there pfs74.

In regards to the #3 seeding: If MIN beats CHI tonight, we'd have a 5 game lead in SoV over Cincy. So the only way we wouldn't get the #3 is pretty much if NE lost, and Cincy won. Technically, if CHI upset MIN tonight, Cincy would creep to within 4 games in SoV (if both were tied) and could still 'technically' get it over us if a bunch of other things happen on Sun, even if both win or both lose.

But, for the most part, we will get the #3 with a win, or if we and CIN both lose. The SoV comes down to if we're both tied with the same record, and right now, we have a lead that should increase to 5 games as long as MIN wins tonight.

For your next question, no--you have it the other way around.

The NYJ get the #5, while BAL gets the #6. It's pretty much impossible for us to play the NYJ in round 1, that's why if BAL wins we'll play them. (unless we lost and CIN won to change our seed)

Hope this helps.

Supafly has it exactly right.

We're #3 unless we lose and Cincy wins.

Jets are the #5 seed w/ win and Balt #6.

 

[supafly]

Supafly has it exactly right.

We're #3 unless we lose and Cincy wins.

Jets are the #5 seed w/ win and Balt #6.

Only because I've paid attention to you

 

[upstater1]

Only because I've paid attention to you

You should see the complete mosh I made of things in the scenario thread I just posted, where I consider all teams losing and two 8-8 teams making the playoffs.

It's a work in progress.

I got it down to strength of victory among 8-8 teams. I didn't need to do common opponents because with that many teams tied at 8-8, common opponents goes out the window.

 

[tombonneau]

BTW, think it was mentioned in here at some point, but worth pointing out Vegas has Houston as -8 favorites. So obviously they think Pats will be resting players.

Still like the +8 though ...

 

[juny]

I remember a few years ago that the Pats had a chance to get a #3 seed in the final week but elected to rest their starters and settled for #4. At this point, I don't think it really matters.

 

[JonVaughnTD]

This is their bye week...they should take advantage of it.

 

[BradysBunch12]

Do I sound like a Colts fan if I selfishly want Brady to throw 2 TDs to get to 30 on the season?