Six Tiers Of Talent - Trading Up or Down

[mgteich]

Somthing like this has been posted by many of us at various times. Some have the breaks a bit differently. I think the conclusions are the same.

TIER ONE 1-6 (Bradford, Suh, McCoy, T. Williams, Okung, Berry) This is a consensus (in various orders), although obviously someone could reach for Clausen.
TIER TWO 7-20
TIER THREE 21-40
TIER FOUR 41-80
TIER FIVE 81 -150
TIER SIX after 150

CONCLUSIONS

1) THURSDAY - We may need to trade up in the first to get a top 20 talent, if there is a player there for reasonable trade value. Targets could include Morgan or McClain early and almost anyone for a move up of 1-4 picks.

2) THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY - We may be sitting at 22 with many players on our board with value from 21-40. They ALL are likely to be gone at 44, so we are safe to trade DOWN. Also, we should be wanting to trade UP from 44 or 47 into the top 35.

3) FRIDAY - So, may be sitting in the 2nd with no top 40 players available and many, many players of equal value near the top of our board. We should take any player that we HAVE to have; otherwise we should trade down. I can't see taking picks in the 44-53 range when we could have an additional pick or two for moving down within the same talent pool.

4) EARLY SATURDAY TALK - We will have a new draft, starting in the 4th. We will be focusing first on that one player that might help. Many of us have targeted a TE, WR or RB. We may need to trade up to get our man.

5) THE REST OF SATURDAY - Now Belichick will settle down and try to find a gem or two, and fill the Training Camp roster.

 

[fester]

The big problem with this analysis is that I think you are assuming that most/all other teams are ranking players in the same manner as the Patriots. That assumption negates assuming scheme changes rankings, need changes rankings, and scouts seeing things a bit differently changing rankings.

I think if we were able to steal the Patriots top 20 list, the Steelers top 20 list, the Raiders top 20 list and the Giants top 20 list, there would be significant variation as to which players are on those four lists.

Somthing like this has been posted by many of us at various times. Some have the breaks a bit differently. I think the conclusions are the same.

TIER ONE 1-6
TIER TWO 7-20
TIER THREE 21-40
TIER FOUR 41-80
TIER FIVE 81 -150
TIER SIX after 150

CONCLUSIONS

1) THURSDAY - We may need to trade up in the first to get a top 20 talent, if there is a player there for reasonable trade value. Targets could include Morgan or McClain early and almost anyone for a move up of 1-4 picks.

2) THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY - We may be sitting at 22 with many players on our board with value from 21-40. They ALL are likely to be gone at 44, so we are safe to trade DOWN. Also, we should be wanting to trade UP from 44 or 47 into the top 35.

3) FRIDAY - So, may be sitting in the 2nd with no top 40 players available and many, many players of equal value near the top of our board. We should take any player that we HAVE to have; otherwise we should trade down. I can't see taking picks in the 44-53 range when we could have an additional pick or two for moving down within the same talent pool.

4) EARLY SATURDAY TALK - We will have a new draft, starting in the 4th. We will be focusing first on that one player that might help. Many of us have targeted a TE, WR or RB. We may need to trade up to get our man.

5) THE REST OF SATURDAY - Now Belichick will settle down and try to find a gem or two, and fill the Training Camp roster.

 

[mgteich]

The patriots do not have 32 players on their first round board. The above rankings are the general value rankings. I use Gosselin's top 100 to give a perspective of brackets. And yes, a couple of teams in the top 20 may reach, allowing a general top 20 player or two to fall to us. Maybe one fo those 1 or 2 or 3 players will also be on the patriot boar, maybe not.

The patriots do NOT draft a player just because he is as the top of their board and at a position of need. The value MUST be right. BUTLER in 2009 is a fine example. Many, many of us thought that we would draft Butler at 22, and surely at 26. Belichick thought that he would be a 2nd rounder. Belichick waited and then moved up to 40 to make sure that he got his man at 40 or 41.

The big problem with this analysis is that I think you are assuming that most/all other teams are ranking players in the same manner as the Patriots. That assumption negates assuming scheme changes rankings, need changes rankings, and scouts seeing things a bit differently changing rankings.

I think if we were able to steal the Patriots top 20 list, the Steelers top 20 list, the Raiders top 20 list and the Giants top 20 list, there would be significant variation as to which players are on those four lists.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

The patriots do not have 32 players on their first round board. The above rankings are the general value rankings. I use Gosselin's top 100 to give a perspective of brackets. And yes, a couple of teams in the top 20 may reach, allowing a general top 20 player or two to fall to us. Maybe one fo those 1 or 2 or 3 players will also be on the patriot boar, maybe not.

The patriots do NOT draft a player just because he is as the top of their board and at a position of need. The value MUST be right. BUTLER in 2009 is a fine example. Many, many of us thought that we would draft Butler at 22, and surely at 26. Belichick thought that he would be a 2nd rounder. Belichick waited and then moved up to 40 to make sure that he got his man at 40 or 41.

BB is a value drafter and that may be why we are having such a problem locking on to a candidate or two for the #22 pick. We are struggling balancing the value with the #22 slot.

I think Butler is a perfect example of value and slotting. Good choice.

 

[jeffbiologist]

I agree that this may be the type of draft where may have to sacrifice value and draft position to get BBs percieved value. I can see us ending up with only 3 picks losing one to adjust positioning. And because of this we could end up with only 2 higher picks using the 3rd of these to trade back to recoup a couple picks in the 3-4 range. People will be looking at their trade value chart and yelling at the TV all over New England!

 

[letekro]

The fact that the heart of this draft looks to be from 30-100, the fact that we have three picks in the second round, the fact that there will be a day between the first and second rounds, all leads me to believe that BB's trade machine will be running hot this extended weekend.

 

[MaineMan]

The big problem with this analysis is that I think you are assuming that most/all other teams are ranking players in the same manner as the Patriots. That assumption negates assuming scheme changes rankings, need changes rankings, and scouts seeing things a bit differently changing rankings.

I think if we were able to steal the Patriots top 20 list, the Steelers top 20 list, the Raiders top 20 list and the Giants top 20 list, there would be significant variation as to which players are on those four lists.

No fair including the Raiders. Of COURSE they'll be different.