Should the Pats have drafted DK Metcalf instead of N'Keal Harry?

[BradyFTW!]

I can't imagine another line as bad as this past Sunday's Patriots line, but fair enough.

Only really makes sense to me when you're drafting a guy who's notably injury prone in the first place. Which doesn't apply here, since Harry's pre-draft career showed him to be a durable guy while Metcalf had and still has majory injury red flags.

If I was going to list off what the most alarming injuries a big WR prospect can have on his resume, my top 3 would probably be season-ending injuries to his foot, neck, and/or back, and Metcalf had 2 of the 3 in a short college career. It's basically small sample size noise that in their extremely brief NFL careers Harry has been injured while Metcalf hasn't. If the Pats had drafted Metcalf the same people questioning Harry right now would be killing them for picking a guy who's 'made of glass'.

 

[NG Pats Fan]

You're moving the goalposts halfway through your own comparison. For Dunlap vs. Cunningham, you're citing scouts who believed that Dunlap projected better to the NFL, while for Michel vs. Chubb you're citing college production. If you look at Cunningham and Dunlap's college stats, you'll see that Dunlap had 19.5 career sacks and 0 INTs, while Cunningham had 18.5 sacks and 1 INT. Dunlap had 26 TFL, while Cunningham had 33. Dunlap had 1 forced fumble, Cunningham had 5. Clearly that's at least partly because Cunningham had a larger body of work, but that body of work is part of the evaluation in its own right, and even if you insisted on averaging it all out you'd still arrive at a purely statistical conclusion that Dunlap was better at sacking the QB while Cunningham's production indicated a more well-rounded skillset. The scouting report wouldn't and didn't say that, but if you're looking purely at the stats with zero context as you're trying to do with Chubb and Michel, that's what they say.

If you were doing the "player A vs. player B" kind of stats comparison that you're attempting with Chubb and Michel, you'd reach a similar conclusion: that stats alone don't clearly show either to be better than the other.

So basically, you've gotta pick a standard and stick with it if you want to make an honest comparison. Michel/Chubb and Cunningham/Dunlap *is* similar for exactly this reason. The stats showed them to be roughly even, while the eye test showed one to project better than the other. In both cases, Belichick took the wrong guy IMO for what I suspect are similar reasons: because he placed a higher premium on perceived versatility that didn't necessarily translate all the way at the pro level in the way he thought it would. I'm not hating on the philosophy, as it's yielded us a lot of good players in its own right, but in these two cases the results pretty much speak for themselves.

The big difference between Cunningham/Dunlap and Michel/Chubb, however, is that I think Michel is actually a good player, so even in picking the 'wrong' guy he still got a running back that I believe in. Unlike with Cunningham, who was just flat-out bad.

I question Michel being a good starting NFL back. What exactly is Michel good at?

 

[Deus Irae]

My logic is just fine. I don’t “debate”. I could not care less whether an anonymous person on the internet agrees with me.
You can feel you are correct if you want to. I would assume anyone giving any opinion feels they are correct.

Your logic is practically non-existent. You tried to argue an overall point by ridiculously inserting a one game lineup as some theoretical trump card.

And if you don't care about anonymous people on the internet agreeing with you, why are you always crying about anonymous internet people supposedly being mean to you?

 

[Keyser Söze]

The knock of Metcalf was his inability to run routes. Yeah sounds like he would have been great here /sarcasm

 

[Deus Irae]

I can't imagine another line as bad as this past Sunday's Patriots line, but fair enough.

The comparison was bad OLs in 2019 to date, not bad OLs for one week in 2019. Ring 6 was flailing about, trying to manipulate the argument towards a position where he wasn't crazy.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I question Michel being a good starting NFL back. What exactly is Michel good at?

Decisive, downhill runner with good vision who can finish runs through contact. I also think, based on his college production and what he's flashed when given the opportunity this year, that he's a better receiving threat than he gets credit for.

He's not a transcendent talent like Chubb who's going to make your running game work no matter how bad the guys around him are, but he's good in the right situation. Unfortunately, the right situation for him entails having a FB in front of him who can help create an entry point and get him some momentum (reminds me of Fournette in that regard), as well as ideally a guy who can pull like Mason does when he's healthy, and/or a TE who's capable of blocking in the ground game. If you have any of these things he will look a lot better than he's looked so far.

Look at what Michel did in the latter half of last season, and remember that he did that with an injured knee. That's the player he can be, he's still that same guy. To the extent that he's been a bit of a disappointment this year, it has more to do with losing your starting C, starting LT, blocking TE, and two fullbacks while your best pulling guard tries to gut it out at like 50% than any talent regression on his part. If we were looking for reasons why the running game has fallen off so much from last year, Michel probably wouldn't even make my list at all, but if he did he wouldn't be in the top 5 reasons.

 

[Ring 6]

Decisive, downhill runner with good vision who can finish runs through contact. I also think, based on his college production and what he's flashed when given the opportunity this year, that he's a better receiving threat than he gets credit for.

He's not a transcendent talent like Chubb who's going to make your running game work no matter how bad the guys around him are, but he's good in the right situation. Unfortunately, the right situation for him entails having a FB in front of him who can help create an entry point and get him some momentum, as well as ideally a guy who can pull like Mason does when he's healthy, and/or a TE who's capable of blocking in the ground game. If you have any of these things he will look a lot better than he's looked so far.

Look at what Michel did in the latter half of last season, and remember that he did that with an injured knee. That's the player he can be, he's still that same guy. To the extent that he's been a bit of a disappointment this year, it has more to do with losing your starting C, starting LT, blocking TE, and two fullbacks while your best pulling guard tries to gut it out at like 50% than any tlaent regression on his part.

You really can’t compare RBs getting good blocking to RBs constantly running behind an OL getting pushed around.
Michel looks great when there is a hole. So does Chubb. michel looks crappy when no one blocks. So does Chubb.

 

[1960Pats]

Bert was kidnapped?

.

He looks scared because of his wide-eyed look.

 

[BradyFTW!]

You really can’t compare RBs getting good blocking to RBs constantly running behind an OL getting pushed around.
Michel looks great when there is a hole. So does Chubb. michel looks crappy when no one blocks. So does Chubb.

Cleveland's OL sucks too, but Chubb looks great anyway. That's not a knock on Michel, he's a good player and I like him and I don't blame him at all for how the running game has fallen off since last year. But Chubb is the better player and that is exactly why: he's so talented that he actually can make chicken salad out of chicken ****.

 

[1960Pats]

Yeah, I don't know how one is supposed to predict whether a drafted player will pull a hamstring the following August.

.

Damn Belichick. He should have known.

And while we're on the subject of the draft, how the heck could stupid Belichick take a chance by letting Brady go until pick #199? Someone else could have drafted him before the Pats.

 

[Ring 6]

The comparison was bad OLs in 2019 to date, not bad OLs for one week in 2019. Ring 6 was flailing about, trying to manipulate the argument towards a position where he wasn't crazy.

No it was not, hence the “right now” at the beginning of my sentence. Since I was responding to someone else there appears to be no way you would be the arbiter of “why the discussion was about”.

 

[Ring 6]

Cleveland's OL sucks too, but Chubb looks great anyway. That's not a knock on Michel, he's a good player and I like him and I don't blame him at all for how the running game has fallen off since last year. But Chubb is the better player and that is exactly why: he's so talented that he actually can make chicken salad out of chicken ****.

Cleveland has a very good run blocking OL. Chubb isn’t running over people to gain his yards.

 

[pctronics0072]

Lol so the only way to be bust is to be cut in training camp 4 months after you’re drafted?

I guess I have always thought of it as a bust is a player that is out of the league. Conversely, if a player is still in the league, then while they can be severe disappointments (read Cyrus and most likely Dawson), then they are not busts.

Based on the responses, I feel I might be in the minority in that thought though.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Funny how threads go from one player to another.

Anyways, I knew it was a matter of time before someone would get fed up with Harry on IR. While I’ll be irritated, it’s not going to surprise me if the Pats announce Harry stays on IR.

As for Michel, he looks like Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis - Decent back, but doesn’t do anything spectacular. I have no idea where people where comparing him to Alvin Kamara.

We blame the line, not have TE’s, and no FB for his poor play, but what does that say about him? He needs perfect blocking to be effective.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Cleveland has a very good run blocking OL. Chubb isn’t running over people to gain his yards.

They really don't, and yeah, he is running over around and through people to gain his yards. I've watched 5 Browns games start to finish, the ground game production is coming almost entirely from him being really, really good. This is a team that cut their LT before the season started to sign him to a smaller contract, and nobody in the league thought highly enough of him to offer him a better deal because everyone knows he sucks. And he does suck, so much that the Browns just benched him. The current state of our OLs are very comparable right now, all the way down to both teams having excellent LGs who are proving to be the most reliable guys on the line.

It's not a knock on Michel that he can't overcome bad run blocking, very few guys can. Just look at what's happened to Joe Mixon. I can't state enough that I like Michel and don't blame him at all for what's happened so far this year in the ground game. But Chubb is one of those rare few guys, and that's the difference between them. It's the difference between an absolutely elite RB and a 'merely' good one.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Funny how threads go from one player to another.

Anyways, I knew it was a matter of time before someone would get fed up with Harry on IR. While I’ll be irritated, it’s not going to surprise me if the Pats announce Harry stays on IR.

As for Michel, he looks like Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis - Decent back, but doesn’t do anything spectacular. I have no idea where people where comparing him to Alvin Kamara.

We blame the line, not have TE’s, and no FB for his poor play, but what does that say about him? He needs perfect blocking to be effective.

After watching him for more then 4 seconds in college. The comparison was as clear as day. He was a bigger Kamara.

W/e he is now is completely irrelevant. Injury, weight gain, coaching/style. Irrelevant.

Comps are hard to get right but coming out that comp made 100% sense if you actually watched both players. Which I bet is less then .5% of this forum.

 

[Ring 6]

They really don't, and yeah, he is running over around and through people to gain his yards. I've watched 5 Browns games start to finish, the ground game production is coming almost entirely from him being really, really good. This is a team that cut their LT before the season started to sign him to a smaller contract, and nobody in the league thought highly enough of him to offer him a better deal because everyone knows he sucks. And he does suck, so much that the Browns just benched him. The current state of our OLs are very comparable right now, all the way down to both teams having excellent LGs who are proving to be the most reliable guys on the line.

It's not a knock on Michel that he can't overcome bad run blocking, very few guys can. Just look at what's happened to Joe Mixon. I can't state enough that I like Michel and don't blame him at all for what's happened so far this year in the ground game. But Chubb is one of those rare few guys, and that's the difference between them. It's the difference between an absolutely elite RB and a 'merely' good one.

We will have to agree to disagree.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Can we discuss football players and draft picks without resorting to homerism?

Here are just the cold hard facts about the 2019 NFL draft so far this year:

#25 Marquise Brown 326 yards 3 TDs
================
#32 N'Keal Harry 0 yards 0 TDs
#45 Joejuan Williams 3 games played 13% defensive snaps, 5 games DNP
================
#51 AJ Brown 348 yards 3 TDs
#56 Mecole Hardman 374 yards 4TDs
#64 DK Metcalf 402 yards 4 TDs
#66 Diontae Johnson 296 yards 3 TDs
#76 Terry McLaurin 458 yards 5 TDs

So those are just the facts, man. Which draft picks made bigger impacts this year?
The Patriots wide receiver taken in the 1st round?
Or how about the Patriots cornerback taken early in the 2nd?

Have those later 2nd and 3rd round picks outperformed those earlier draft selections?
This pattern bears out over and over again. New England sucks at drafting WRs and CBs.

The Patriots could have easily traded down and got other players who would have made an impact this year. And if they really, really wanted Harry, they could have traded down from JJ Williams and taken you know, an actually productive wideout?

 

[zipster9]

Unsure, but look at the draft history for WRs... Not very good. Only 2 were Edelman and Branch. But that is over 17rs...

 

[VJCPatriot]

Actually it was coach **** Rehbein who convinced BB to draft Brady.

Article:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/spor...10ce94-0820-11e8-8777-2a059f168dd2_story.html

If not for this coach stepping up to bat for Brady, the Pats would have missed out on a HOF talent.

If not for Rehbein, we could have been stuck with Tim Rattay instead... *shudders*

6 Superbowl wins later, and we better be thankful everyday that the right call was made and someone was willing to speak up for a skinny, unheralded QB from Michigan.

Damn Belichick. He should have known.

And while we're on the subject of the draft, how the heck could stupid Belichick take a chance by letting Brady go until pick #199? Someone else could have drafted him before the Pats.