Should the Pats Attempt to Sign Jimmy Graham to an Offer Sheet?

[Wheelman]

The cons are too great.

 

[supafly]

I'd say it's more than unlikely, I can't remember the last time a team gave up 2 1sts and a big long term contract for a FA.

It has been 14 years, and the DAL CBoys were the team to do it.

They gave up 2 firsts and a long term 42m dollar deal to acquire WR Joey Galloway.


http://news.google.com/newspapers?n...vEyAAAAIBAJ&sjid=qwgGAAAAIBAJ&pg=6693,3009598

(Info courtesy of DI several months back)

 

[supafly]

We've been discussing the fact that Graham cannot block very well lately (putting it mildly), so I think that would be a major con.

The fact that we'd also have to give up 2 firsts for '15 and '16 would probably be the deal-breaker for Belichick. That's difficult to come back from, particularly since we've moved to a more reasonable pay scale for the first round picks.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

No no nooooo

 

[chasa]

Andre johnson is also on the wrong side

We've been discussing the fact that Graham cannot block very well lately (putting it mildly), so I think that would be a major con.

The fact that we'd also have to give up 2 firsts for '15 and '16 would probably be the deal-breaker for Belichick. That's difficult to come back from, particularly since we've moved to a more reasonable pay scale for the first round picks.

he'd essentially be playing WR on the first three downs. Gronk would be the blocking tight end, that occasionally splits out wide.

 

[Brady6]

I would rather try to pull of a trade for Vernon Davis for a much lower asking price. It is essentially a trade of 2 first round picks for Jimmy Graham. I do not think Jimmy Graham is worth 2 first round picks personally. I would probably only give up 2 first round picks for a select # of players in the NFL and that is Johnson, Peterson, Watt, and a few other in that top 10 of all players in the NFL class.

 

[OhExaulted1]

I was on board with this months ago. Go get him Bill. As varjao said, 2 #32's? Done! Eff the money aspect. Find a way. Why everyone goes to the $'s as the obstacle is beyond me. Yup. We couldn't get Revis. Ever. Costs too much. Uh-huh.

The Son of Sams money is off the books next year. He doesn't block very well? Over the last 4 years I'd put his stats up against anyone. Go get this kid. Give Brady the weapons. Defense is looking sweet. Piss off everyone in football and make them hate us even more. Pull the trigger Bill and let's go on another F-U NFL tour. This time with the payoff.

If either of the next #32 picks in the draft come anywhere close to these #'s or impact, I'll eat my friggin' hat.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GrahJi00.htm

 

[ausbacker]

I don't see Belichick as the type of guy that would screw a contemporary in Sean Payton for Graham's services right now. Despite whatever feelings people have toward Belichick, he strikes me as a football gentlemen.

 

[lurker1965]

My first reaction was, "Sure, the Saints won't let him go so what can it hurt?"

Then I thought about it. What if the Saints, say, sure?

He is great, but no one except maybe some QBs are worth two first rounders. Then even if he renegotiates to league minimum, etc. he is still viewed as the savior and now you got locker room head aches.

No insult to him, but he, and maybe no one, is worth that.

 

[lurker1965]

...

If either of the next #32 picks in the draft come anywhere close to these #'s or impact, I'll eat my friggin' hat.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GrahJi00.htm

Good point. Those #1s are likely #32 (at least over #29). Still my "savior" part stands.

 

[Danger Zone]

Good point. Those #1s are likely #32 (at least over #29). Still my "savior" part stands.

The average Drafting position of the Patriots over the past 14 years has been 26th.

28th if you discount 2001.

Even at 28 or 26.. thats two very very late #1s.

(Btw, Ravens average 21, Steelers average 21).

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Graham is a bit over-rated in my book. He's useless on the line, and most of his catches are with safeties and linebackers on him. Putting a corner on him minimizes his effectiveness significantly, as we found out with Talib. But as it turns out, several others figured that out as well.

Graham finished with 90 catches for 1,267 yards and 16 touchdowns last season, including the postseason. Only 20 of his receptions were made against a cornerback, for 258 yards and four touchdowns. Graham caught a pass only 12 percent of the time a cornerback covered him.
...
Then there was Graham's disappearing act in the NFC divisional playoff game at Seattle.


The Seahawks covered Graham with a cornerback 13 times in the playoffs, compared to six times during the regular-season matchup in Week 13. Brees targeted Graham only once out of those 13 occasions as Seattle threw four corners at Graham during the Saints' loss (Richard Sherman, Byron Maxwell, Walter Thurmond, Jeremy Lane). Graham's only catch came in the final seconds, and it wasn't with a cornerback on the assignment.

http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf/2014/06/jimmy_graham_cornerback_compar.html

FiveThirtyEight also did an article on which receivers/TEs benefited or were hurt by the QB they played with. The assumptions aren't exactly great, but it found that Graham certainly benefits from having Brees throw him the ball. He'd still be good with say Tony Romo as his QB, but not elite.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/without-drew-brees-jimmy-graham-is-a-good-but-not-great-receiver/

So when figuring in the cost of the contract, draft pick compensation, and his ability to be easily removed from a game, I'd say no no no.

 

[supafly]

Andre johnson is also on the wrong side

he'd essentially be playing WR on the first three downs. Gronk would be the blocking tight end, that occasionally splits out wide.

I'm not seeing the relevance of Andre Johnson to the conversation, but I'm assuming that may have been a leftover comment that you didn't erase prior to posting.

I hear what you're saying about Graham's services as being basically a WR, and there are obviously pros to that aspect. I just don't personally feel as though Belichick would a) part with 2 first round picks and b) want someone who cannot properly block. Even our WRs have the task of successfully blocking on a high percentage of their plays. Graham is not exempt in this regard.

I'm of the opinion that if you're going to part with 2 first round picks, you should definitely, without a doubt, walk away with one of the top elite players in the NFL. While Graham is certainly very talented, I just don't see him falling into that category and being worth 2 firsts--that's all.

I'd actually be interested in hearing Belichick's behind the scenes talk about whether or not he'd part with ONE first round pick for Jimmy Graham, not that we'll ever hear those thoughts of course.

I would imagine that if Belichick were to give up a 1st/and a 3rd (let alone 2 firsts), or something like that, he would have his pick of guys who could benefit our system very well over the years, both offensively and defensively. We just don't see these kinds of deals too often. One can assume that we could've gotten some pretty decent players over the years with a first round pick in trade compensation.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

If graham WAS to come here (he isn't however)...at some point he would have to block someone...and that would just end up.....bad

 

[SHOWTIME15]

This move would not make them the greatest team in the history of the NFL. It wouldn't even make them the greatest team in Patriots history.

I can assure you the offense would be better than 2007.

 

[Deus Irae]

I can assure you the offense would be better than 2007.

No.

Not just no, but hell no.

 

[Sciz]

There are players that are worth the top contract at their position, and there are players that are worth two first round picks. Outside of a true franchise QB, I don't think there are any players worth both.

That said, I hope somebody makes a move for him. We need some excitement in the NFL over the next few weeks.

 

[supafly]

There are players that are worth the top contract at their position, and there are players that are worth two first round picks. Outside of a true franchise QB, I don't think there are any players worth both.

I agree, with maybe the exception being a guy like Calvin Johnson or JJ Watt--and even then, we'd likely have quite a debate about it.

 

[Deus Irae]

There are players that are worth the top contract at their position, and there are players that are worth two first round picks. Outside of a true franchise QB, I don't think there are any players worth both.

Your position seems, to me, to be completely off the mark. JJ Watt is worth 2 firsts. No question.

JJ Watt v. Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower

JJ Watt v. Justin Gilbert and Johnny Manziel

JJ Watt v. Sharrif Floyd and Xavier Rhodes

JJ Watt v. Tavon Auston and Alec Ogletree



There are a lot of non-QBs who would be worth two first round picks. Picks, in general, are wildly overrated. Even first round picks produce a 1/3-1/3-1/3 stud/meh/disappointment sort of ratio. GMs are reluctant to make even the obvious moves, though, because they're afraid that they'll be giving up the NEXT JJ Watt with their picks.

 

[OhExaulted1]

If graham WAS to come here (he isn't however)...at some point he would have to block someone...and that would just end up.....bad

He's 6-7 and 260+ lbs. Go up to his face and tell him he's a p***y who can't block. I dare you.