Shanahan's 2nd & 10 nightmare revealed

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

Atlanta had 6 guys blocking 4. Freeman was covered beautifully by Sheard, eliminating the safety valve. Ryan's receiver options over the middle and to the left were blanketed. HT started to beat Hooper's block, flushing Ryan to the right and into Flowers' grasp. Credit Mack for a half-sack for slamming into Ryan while futily chasing Flowers down, eliminating any chance Ryan had of breaking free from Flowers.

Not Shanahan's best play call by any stretch, but the Pats did a ton right on that play while Atlanta had about the worst execution possible.

Regards,
Chris

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

If he ran it up the gut twice and then they miss the FG, he would have been crucified for being too conservative.

.

This is the main problem with the bashing of the call. I remember in the 2004 playoffs the jets and chargers lost on being too conservative in the same type situation where they could seal wins, with their kickers missing <40 yard fgs iirc. Heck, it happened to us in 2012 vs az when bb went mega conservative when we were moving at will late.

It all boils down imo mostly to pats haters having trouble dealing with trophy #5. Much like with pete carroll, at the end of sb49, its way easier for the jealous bunch to bash our opponents than to give credit where its due. The reality neither coach is really at fault with what happened.

 

[luuked]

Don't think Rowe got the credit he deserves, thought he had a pretty dam good game and season

He got exactly the credit he deserved. In many games the times he was closest to the ball was when he high fived the team mate who actually made the play.

Seriously, just rewatch the Texans and Steelers games and see how he gets bailed out repeatedly by bad throws or drops. T

he way he played last year he is great depth but not someone you really want to have as your starter on the outside in every game. I hope a full offseason will give him a boost because he has all the measurables to be decent.

 

[luuked]

Disagree that their play calling was stupid. Absolutely agree that their game clock usage was poor.

The Falcon's tried to run the ball but couldn't because the Pats D was thoroughly shutting it down. I do think the worst play call was the 7 step drop pass play while in field goal range. Pass or run they needed to avoid the sack with a quick low risk play including throwing it out of bounds.

But playcalling and game clock usage go hand in hand. It doesn't matter if the Falcons would have gotten stuffed on the run twice. It is all about risk management at that point in the game as you are not playing to score a TD but burn the clock, the opponents TO and make it a two possession game via FG that you are already in range for.

A run doesn't carry the risk of a sack, substantially less risk of a holding penalty or a tipped pass turning into a INT. You can even mitigate the risk of fumbling by instructing the runner to not fight through contact but go down early.

Obviously, you are right that it doesn't have to be a true run but any kind of bubble screen would be effectively the same thing.

Even if they would have gotten stuffed 3x behind the LOS they would have been still easily in Bryant's FG range. A distance where he is about 90%.. inside a dome..

 

[Tony2046]

But playcalling and game clock usage go hand in hand. It doesn't matter if the Falcons would have gotten stuffed on the run twice. It is all about risk management at that point in the game as you are not playing to score a TD but burn the clock, the opponents TO and make it a two possession game via FG that you are already in range for.

A run doesn't carry the risk of a sack, substantially less risk of a holding penalty or a tipped pass turning into a INT. You can even mitigate the risk of fumbling by instructing the runner to not fight through contact but go down early.

Obviously, you are right that it doesn't have to be a true run but any kind of bubble screen would be effectively the same thing.

Even if they would have gotten stuffed 3x behind the LOS they would have been still easily in Bryant's FG range. A distance where he is about 90%.. inside a dome..

I stand corrected regarding the play calling while in field goal range. You're right. To run was the best option.

I stand by that their play calling wasn't bad rather it was the Pats D who took it to another level and stopped them.

Btw: The drive charts for this game are just amazing.

 

[Simpelton]

After watching this play a dozen times, I'm left wondering why Atlanta's coaches elected to run such a deep drop. Ryan ran back a full 5 yards before setting to pass, than panicked and ran backwards another 5 yards. In this situation, wouldn't you go for a quick screen or checkdown?

Ryan had to buy time for a receiver to get open after a 11 yard run, a quick slant wouldn't have done that

 

[Simpelton]

In the same situation, wanting to gain 11 yards on second down, Brady would have made 2 plays, perhaps a slant to White on the outside for a 5 yard gain and then a bullet up the slot to Edelman. Ryan thinks bigger, he tries to make the big plays, like Rodgers does. And like Bledsoe did. Wants to get everything in one shot. it's brilliant if it works. IF it works. The Drew Bledsoe era here in New England was full of times when it didn't, and I honestly see a lot of Bledsoe in Ryan.

The Falcons coaching staff with their lead crumbling and momentum squarely in the Patriots' favor clearly needed to take the call out of Ryan's hands and clamp down and insist on conservative play to protect their lead. But with a guy like Ryan, who is absolutely a legitimate home run threat on every play, it's hard to resist that urge to gamble and see if you can't reverse the momentum with one big deep ball, especially after he'd just had that spectacular complete to Julio Jones.

If Ryan wins Superbowls it will be because he either gets a power runner to offset his style offensively and chew up much more clock on offensive drives, or because he gets a coach that insists on forcing Ryan to make the little, smart plays a Brady might make, 5 yard gainers and 2 yard outlet passes where the goal is to run after the catch and exploit a gap in the defense, rather than living and dying on the home run ball and trying to make every first down on first and 10, then 2nd and 10, then third and 10.

 

[luuked]

In the same situation, wanting to gain 11 yards on second down, Brady would have made 2 plays, perhaps a slant to White on the outside for a 5 yard gain and then a bullet up the slot to Edelman. Ryan thinks bigger, he tries to make the big plays, like Rodgers does. And like Bledsoe did. Wants to get everything in one shot. it's brilliant if it works. IF it works.

It is just horrible situational football no matter if it works or not. Again, you don't need a TD, what you need is to burn clock, make it a 2 possession game and preferably also remove as many TOs as you can from the equation.

It is a scenario that you will win 95%+ of the time if played to maximize those three things because it puts the other team into a position to score quickly without a full set of TOs (which removes some of the playbook as time is winding down), score a 2pt conversion, recover an onside kick AND score again (depending on the 2pt a fg or a td).

The set of playcalls they chose introduced enough points of failure to take them from inside the 30 to outside fieldgoal range. This is something that at this point in a game would never happen to a BB team. Yes, there can always be penalties or turnovers due to poor execution but you can minimize the risk with careful playcalling if you realize that a TD doesn't matter.

The reason I am still completely baffled by the sequence is because I truly thing this is a worse way to lose a SB than e.g. helmet catch.

 

[luuked]

I stand corrected regarding the play calling while in field goal range. You're right. To run was the best option.

I stand by that their play calling wasn't bad rather it was the Pats D who took it to another level and stopped them.

Btw: The drive charts for this game are just amazing.

View attachment 17127

I understand what you are saying and agree that the Patriots took everything the Falcons put on the table on that drive.

But like I implied.. it is a give and take. For the sake of argument, the Falcons could have kneeled 3x burning the clock (or burning our TOs) and the D couldn't have done anything except maybe block a FG (which historically is even less probable than an onside kick recovery). You are misunderstanding me if you feel like I am downplaying what the defense did because they were otherworldly clutch. As Hightower said.. "everything has to be perfect" and it was.. but none of this would have been possible if the Falcons were better at situational football and didn't even give our D so many attack vectors.

But boy am I glad that they did..

 

[Tony2046]

I understand what you are saying and agree that the Patriots took everything the Falcons put on the table on that drive.

But like I implied.. it is a give and take. For the sake of argument, the Falcons could have kneeled 3x burning the clock (or burning our TOs) and the D couldn't have done anything except maybe block a FG (which historically is even less probable than an onside kick recovery). You are misunderstanding me if you feel like I am downplaying what the defense did because they were otherworldly clutch. As Hightower said.. "everything has to be perfect" and it was.. but none of this would have been possible if the Falcons were better at situational football and didn't even give our D so many attack vectors.

But boy am I glad that they did..

I know you're not downplaying the Pats D and I agree with pretty much with everything your saying. Just discussing.

My question is, outside of the play calling while in field goal range what could have or should have Atlanta done differently? I don't think they could have done anything differently. They were basically living or dying on the big play. It seemed their plays were either huge or nothing. 52 of their 104 rushing yards came on two plays (37 + 15) but they also had 10 rushing plays of 3 or less yards including 5 negative gains ( one of them was a no play because of an Atl holding penalty).

My original point was that Atlanta's play calling was effective or wasn't "stupid" but do agree the field goal series was poor. Basically there are two series that turned the momentum in the Pats favor. The Hightower sack/fumble series which was not a bad play call rather a missed assignment and the series of downs while in field goal range. I would point to those two as the only plays that Atl could have handled differently and only one of those was due to play calling. All the others were the Pat's Def and Offense taking control of the game.

 

[bradydaman29]

It was amazing how everything went right for the Pats on that series. If Blount was the coach of Atlanta at that point, they probably would have won the thing (you can hear him on the bench, kind of resigned to the loss, saying all Atl has to do is run down the clock).

One thing that went right was on the play after the sack when there was a holding call on Atlanta. The wr and the db grabbed each other's facemask. That was pretty much ignored by the refs and the announcers but if that had been called as off-setting penalties, I think the play would have been voided and they would have run the play again, giving Atl another chance and giving them back the 10 yards.

Huge no-call if I'm right.

 

[SalemPats]

This was on Ryan and not Shanahan. It's really Ryan's main weakness, his footwork in the pocket, it's what separates him from the top tier

 

[bormio]

It was amazing how everything went right for the Pats on that series. If Blount was the coach of Atlanta at that point, they probably would have won the thing (you can hear him on the bench, kind of resigned to the loss, saying all Atl has to do is run down the clock).

One thing that went right was on the play after the sack when there was a holding call on Atlanta. The wr and the db grabbed each other's facemask. That was pretty much ignored by the refs and the announcers but if that had been called as off-setting penalties, I think the play would have been voided and they would have run the play again, giving Atl another chance and giving them back the 10 yards.

Huge no-call if I'm right.

That was simply good officiating - no advantage, no foul. Do not swallow the whistles, but do not call stuff that is not affecting the game. Both SB49 and 51 were well-officiated.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

After watching this play a dozen times, I'm left wondering why Atlanta's coaches elected to run such a deep drop. Ryan ran back a full 5 yards before setting to pass, than panicked and ran backwards another 5 yards. In this situation, wouldn't you go for a quick screen or checkdown?

I think you nailed it when you said "panicked and ran backwards." I dunno, but I kind of think, in that situation, Brady would have a clear plan in mind to drop back five yards, take less than a second to find a safe place to throw it in the field of play or toss it over somebody's head into the fifth row of the stands. By Brady standards, Ryan has plenty of time to unload the ball before he turns and runs.

 

[DaBronxPats14]

Thanx OP. Since you got me thinkin about SB51 I think i'll put it on for like bizillionth time and I always start it right after commercials when H'T speed rushes causing strip sack straight through to.............

TOSS TO WHITE...........HE'S IN! PATRIOTS WIN SUPERBOWL!
BRADY GETS HIS FIFTH! WHAT A COMEBACK!

 

[luuked]

I know you're not downplaying the Pats D and I agree with pretty much with everything your saying. Just discussing.

My question is, outside of the play calling while in field goal range what could have or should have Atlanta done differently? I don't think they could have done anything differently. They were basically living or dying on the big play. It seemed their plays were either huge or nothing. 52 of their 104 rushing yards came on two plays (37 + 15) but they also had 10 rushing plays of 3 or less yards including 5 negative gains ( one of them was a no play because of an Atl holding penalty).

If you ask me once they were in comfortable field goal range they should have just done 3 low-risk runs up the gut burning time and timeouts and then kick it. Essentially, approach it like a game winning fg in OT. Personally, I'd go crazy as a fan or coach over this sequence for an eternity if I was on the receiving end.

My original point was that Atlanta's play calling was effective or wasn't "stupid" but do agree the field goal series was poor. Basically there are two series that turned the momentum in the Pats favor. The Hightower sack/fumble series which was not a bad play call rather a missed assignment and the series of downs while in field goal range. I would point to those two as the only plays that Atl could have handled differently and only one of those was due to play calling. All the others were the Pat's Def and Offense taking control of the game.

I totally agree that the Hightower forced fumble was not a bad call by Atlanta at all. They got their look, the play would have been the dagger but one player not doing his job screwed it up. But as much as Zolak can't believe the seven step drop, I didn't have an issue at all with that call. Despite the play breaking down like that if HT gets there just a blink of an eye later this is not a fumble but an incompletion.

 

[long distance]

Thanx OP. Since you got me thinkin about SB51 I think i'll put it on for like bizillionth time and I always start it right after commercials when H'T speed rushes causing strip sack straight through to.............

TOSS TO WHITE...........HE'S IN! PATRIOTS WIN SUPERBOWL!
BRADY GETS HIS FIFTH! WHAT A COMEBACK!

Strangely enough it was the first time I put the game on.

A few nuggets while we're at it:

1. Two great ST plays after both 8 point drives (2 Ghosts perfect kicks at 2yd and 0yd + great coverage by Slater, Bolden, JJ and Ebner)

2. 5:07 -- RT Schraeder goes down and out of the game - sub Compton comes in (played only 69 snaps in the season). 3 ATL OL mistakes follow (none directly by Compton but OL possibly trying to compensate for the new guy), 2 of them cost them the game

3. 3:17 -- 3rd and 10 on NE 9yd line - White is late picking up the blitz by Poole but somehow manages to throw himself at the hand of Poole at the last moment causing him to miss Brady's throw by the smallest part of an inch

4. 2:11 -- Ref places the ball on the ground after Edelman's catch with Andrews in a hurry to organize a snap before 2 min warning. Quinn is “forced“ to throw a flag before 2 min warning. The result is Pats get additional play in peace + ATL loses their final time out (that they could use dearly on their last drive with 0:57 remaining). The fact that the ref was able to see and actually call the catch on the field was both amazing and paid big dividends for NE. Somehow I feel BB would not throw the flag there

 

[Wheelman]

One thing that went right was on the play after the sack when there was a holding call on Atlanta. The wr and the db grabbed each other's facemask. That was pretty much ignored by the refs and the announcers but if that had been called as off-setting penalties, I think the play would have been voided and they would have run the play again, giving Atl another chance and giving them back the 10 yards.

Huge no-call if I'm right.

Joe Buck noted that there was a facemask on Ryan and Sanu when they showed the replay. But yes you are correct, it should have been off setting and the down replayed.

 

[DaBronxPats14]

Strangely enough it was the first time I put the game on.

A few nuggets while we're at it:

1. Two great ST plays after both 8 point drives (2 Ghosts perfect kicks at 2yd and 0yd + great coverage by Slater, Bolden, JJ and Ebner)

2. 5:07 -- RT Schraeder goes down and out of the game - sub Compton comes in (played only 69 snaps in the season). 3 ATL OL mistakes follow (none directly by Compton but OL possibly trying to compensate for the new guy), 2 of them cost them the game

3. 3:17 -- 3rd and 10 on NE 9yd line - White is late picking up the blitz by Poole but somehow manages to throw himself at the hand of Poole at the last moment causing him to miss Brady's throw by the smallest part of an inch

4. 2:11 -- Ref places the ball on the ground after Edelman's catch with Andrews in a hurry to organize a snap before 2 min warning. Quinn is “forced“ to throw a flag before 2 min warning. The result is Pats get additional play in peace + ATL loses their final time out (that they could use dearly on their last drive with 0:57 remaining). The fact that the ref was able to see and actually call the catch on the field was both amazing and paid big dividends for NE. Somehow I feel BB would not throw the flag there

Well done, great points.. There are so many little gems that make up Big plays and decisions made by players, coaches or lack there of by coaches. But one thing that was evident throughout was Pats were Never giving up and took advantage of every possible chance they got. Either by Them creating their breaks or capitalizing on Atl mistakes or questionable play calling. THAT comeback was Epic and a thing of beauty and more and more you watch it you get an even better appreciation for it.

 

[Joker]

The Patriots BEAT the Falcons to win the Super Bowl. Stop beating this poor blood splotch of a former horse into a rivulet of red and let the street sweepers clean up all this revisionist hysteria. It's 2017...the Patriots have won FIVE Super Bowls since 2001. If you can't enjoy this FACT perhaps you can't enjoy anything...in which case, stab your eyes out ,puncture your eardrums with pencils and super glue your mouth shut. The world will be a better place...