Semi OT: What's with the lopsided betting trends this week?

[Wolfpack]

That is simply not true. There are sharps that can move the line with a bet.

Sorry, but you're mistaken. What do you think happens? Some guy walks into a casino with a big button on his chest that says "Well Respected Professional Gambler" and that when he places a bet, ALL the casinos on the strip (not to mention all the offshore books) adjust their lines accordingly? What you're saying simply doesn't even make sense. You've seen too many movies about what things were like 50 years ago. Modern day Vegas just doesn't operate like that, despite what Hollywood and paperbacks try to tell you.

 

[Wolfpack]

You're correct, and if you're interested here's a book that I thought was a great read:

Amazon.com: Lay the Favorite: A Memoir of Gambling (9780385526456): Beth Raymer: Books: Reviews, Prices & more

Here's a quote from the book that supports what you're saying....

On the screen in front of me, the basketball game changed from minus 155 to minus 159. I realized Dinky's opinion was so respected that when he or his crew bet money on a game, the office we bet with changed their odds. I thought that was cool as hell.

You're talking about a shift in the money line (and not even really all that big of one) not a shift in the point spread.

 

[Wolfpack]

loses three.

The only winners are the pros, and the house.

The house (almost) always wins because the house doesn't gamble. They do their best to see to it that equal action is placed on both sides. If they allowed a disproportionate number of bets to be placed on one side over the other, then they would be gambling. But the house doesn't gamble. They just collect the vig from all the gamblers (such as myself) willing to lay 11 to win 10.

Your "gambling trends" from some obscure offshore sportsbook does not represent all the combined action across all boards in Las Vegas.

 

[mgcolby]

Sorry, but you're mistaken. What do you think happens? Some guy walks into a casino with a big button on his chest that says "Well Respected Professional Gambler" and that when he places a bet, ALL the casinos on the strip (not to mention all the offshore books) adjust their lines accordingly? What you're saying simply doesn't even make sense. You've seen too many movies about what things were like 50 years ago. Modern day Vegas just doesn't operate like that.

I won't get into a pissing match with you, but Casino computer systems are state of the art, when a large bet is placed flags are raised, they have face recognition software that can send alerts when a specific person walks in. How do you think they keep out the known cheats? Do you think every casino employee recognizes them when they come in?


I stand by my statement.

 

[Wolfpack]

I won't get into a pissing match with you, but Casino computer systems are state of the art, when a large bet is placed flags are raised, they have face recognition software that can send alerts when a specific person walks in. How do you think they keep out the known cheats? Do you think every casino employee recognizes them when they come in?

Casinos use face recognition software to combat cheaters and criminals, not to go after legitimate gamblers making fair and legal bets.

Now I notice you subtly shifted from "small bet" to "large bet". Yes, a large bet can shift the lines. But a small bet will not do so, no matter the name or reputation of the guy who placed it (unless the casinos have reason to believe it will represent an ongoing trend). Not to mention that when it comes to sports betting, anyone can easily have someone doing it on their behalf. How well does face recognition software work when some high roller sends his new assistant down to the casino to make a wager? It isn't like card counting where it takes a certain talent and the person has to be there.

By the way, while they try to keep out known cheats, it is most assuredly not a foolproof system.

I stand by my statement.

You can stand by it all you want, but that don't make it true.

 

[Water Boy]

The oddsmakers are doing what they always do: Setting the lines to do their best to get equal action on each side. Some obscure statisitc from some obscure offshore sportsbook does nothing to change that fact.

I would venture to guess that there are many thousands of NFL wagers made on Sportsbook.com - enough for the trends in the betting lines to represent statistically valid samples that should reflect the national trend. To have 6 games with trends in the range of 75%-25% strikes me as bizare. As luck would have it, 3 of the 6 games went in the houses favor. Maybe the intent is to entice more gamblers with "attractive" spreads that lead to lopsided trends, but allowing the law of averages to kick in by having multiple games with lopsided trends.

 

[makewayhomer]

You're talking about a shift in the money line (and not even really all that big of one) not a shift in the point spread.

you have no idea what you're talking about - when 1 moves, the other moves

They do their best to see to it that equal action is placed on both sides.

no, not always. they sometimes take positions

Some obscure statisitc from some obscure offshore sportsbook does nothing to change that fact.

sportsbook.com is far, far bigger than any Vegas sports book. in fact it's probably bigger than all of them combined

 

[Wolfpack]

I would venture to guess that there are many thousands of NFL wagers made on Sportsbook.com - enough for the trends in the betting lines to represent statistically valid samples that should reflect the national trend. To have 6 games with trends in the range of 75%-25% strikes me as bizare. As luck would have it, 3 of the 6 games went in the houses favor. Maybe the intent is to entice more gamblers with "attractive" spreads that lead to lopsided trends, but allowing the law of averages to kick in by having multiple games with lopsided trends.

Right now on sportsbook.com, they have 22 bets for this upcoming weekend (11 games, each game has winner and total). 16 of those 22 bets fall outside an 80%-20% range. I just don't consider that an accurate sample of national trends. There is no way casinos are allowing lopsided action on 16 of 22 bets.

 

[Wolfpack]

you have no idea what you're talking about - when 1 moves, the other moves

This comment makes me think you don't even know the difference between a point spread and a money line.

no, not always. they sometimes take positions

This is the sort of comment that doesn't even make sense if you think it through. People like you talk about "Vegas" like it is one big huge single entity. It isn't. It is a whole bunch of separate, and competing hotel/casinos.

So essentially in order to believe that "Vegas" is taking a position on a certain game, we have to believe that every single one of those casinos is in perfect lock step, happily taking the same position on the same game.

Is that really a realistic scenario in your mind? Every single casino in Vegas (not to mention all the ones in England, Australia, offshore, etc, etc) all are happy taking the same position on a certain game?

sportsbook.com is far, far bigger than any Vegas sports book. in fact it's probably bigger than all of them combined

Do you have any source to back up that statement, or are you just pulling it out of thin air?

 

[makewayhomer]

This comment makes me think you don't even know the difference between a point spread and a money line.

umm, likewise? do you not understand they are derivatives of the same thing?

do you really think that when a point spread of -3 -110 moves to -3 -120 the moneyline stays the same?

This is the sort of comment that doesn't even make sense if you think it through. People like you talk about "Vegas" like it is one big huge single entity. It isn't. It is a whole bunch of separate, and competing hotel/casinos.

yeah I worked at one for 5 years.

So essentially in order to believe that "Vegas" is taking a position on a certain game, we have to believe that every single one of those casinos is in perfect lock step, happily taking the same position on the same game.

no, you don't. books are distinct businesses. they each have 2 goals: maximize profits and minimizing risks. these things sometimes conflict with one another. some books are more risk averse than others, and others will be more aggressive.

Do you have any source to back up that statement, or are you just pulling it out of thin air?

here is one article that is years old. I wonder what's happened since then - the internet gained popularity, or walk in casinos did?

Offshore sports books combined for an estimated handle of $76.6 billion in 2004, compared to a handle of $2.08 billion in Nevada. At least five offshore books alone took in more money in sports wagers last year than the entire state.

 

[mgcolby]

Casinos use face recognition software to combat cheaters and criminals, not to go after legitimate gamblers making fair and legal bets.

Now I notice you subtly shifted from "small bet" to "large bet". Yes, a large bet can shift the lines. But a small bet will not do so, no matter the name or reputation of the guy who placed it (unless the casinos have reason to believe it will represent an ongoing trend). Not to mention that when it comes to sports betting, anyone can easily have someone doing it on their behalf. How well does face recognition software work when some high roller sends his new assistant down to the casino to make a wager? It isn't like card counting where it takes a certain talent and the person has to be there.

By the way, while they try to keep out known cheats, it is most assuredly not a foolproof system.
You can stand by it all you want, but that don't make it true.

Don't put words in my mouth. I didn't shift ****. And you are wrong, but keep arguing all you want.

Books/casino's do in fact "gamble" and they win far more often than they lose and they collect the vig to boot.

How else do you explain cases of 75% + of the money coming in on one side and the line either stays put or moves in the publics favor? Please explain that.

I would give you a recent example, but I am at work and cannot access my normal betting forum.

And if you think the Vegas casino's take more action than offshore books you truly don't have a clue about sports betting.

 

[Wolfpack]

umm, likewise? do you not understand they are derivatives of the same thing?

do you really think that when a point spread of -3 -110 moves to -3 -120 the moneyline stays the same?

Are we talking football or basketball? Because the anecdote presented was for basketball. And here's the basketball money line to point spread conversion chart:

NBA Basketball Moneyline Bets

So what's the point spread when the money line goes from 155 to 159? 3.2?

yeah I worked at one for 5 years.

So did I. And yet you still don't know how the industry works.

no, you don't. books are distinct businesses. they each have 2 goals: maximize profits and minimizing risks. these things sometimes conflict with one another. some books are more risk averse than others, and others will be more aggressive.

And yet, by an amazing coindcidence, when all is said and done, the books have the same point spread for every game (give or take a point here or there). Tell ya what... monitor this week's lines and then let me know which books are being aggressive and which books are being risk averse.

URL="http://www.casinocitytimes.com/news/article/sports-betting-guess-where-big-bettors-spend-their-money%3F-153385?contentID=153385"]here is one article[/URL] that is years old. I wonder what's happened since then - the internet gained popularity, or walk in casinos did?

Your article is from 2005. The internet has gained popularity - but Congress passed legislation that made internet gambling illegal in 2006. I think it's safe to say that that legislation hurt business.

Now don't get me wrong. There are still ways to get around the law. But speaking from personal experience, it has become a lot harder and you have to jump through far more hoops today than you used to.

 

[Wolfpack]

Don't put words in my mouth. I didn't shift ****. And you are wrong, but keep arguing all you want.

Books/casino's do in fact "gamble" and they win far more often than they lose and they collect the vig to boot.

Sorry, but they didn't build all them palaces in the desert by gambling. They take sure things, and there ain't nothing more sure than collecting a 4.8% vig on equal action. Now don't get me wrong... it is not a foolproof system. Sometimes a casino can get "middled" and lose money on a game. But those situations are few and far between.

How else do you explain cases of 75% + of the money coming in on one side and the line either stays put or moves in the publics favor? Please explain that.

:ugh: Dude are you really this clueless? Is it really so tough to follow the conversation? My whole point is that that doesn't happen. You're asking me to explain something which I have been saying for several pages now doesn't take place. :ugh:

And if you think the Vegas casino's take more action than offshore books you truly don't have a clue about sports betting.

I didn't give an opinion on that matter. I asked for a source because I am interested in reading the stats behind the statement.

 

[makewayhomer]

the books have the same point spread for every game (give or take a point here or there).

lolol. that "point here or there" is how professional sports bettors make there living. you are trivializing the single most important thing in profitable sports betting - line shopping

Your article is from 2005. The internet has gained popularity - but Congress passed legislation that made internet gambling illegal in 2006. I think it's safe to say that that legislation hurt business.
Now don't get me wrong. There are still ways to get around the law. But speaking from personal experience, it has become a lot harder and you have to jump through far more hoops today than you used to.

no - sports betting over the phone (and then internet) has been illegal for decades in the US. you don't know what the UIGEA did in 2006, it had almost no effect on the legality of internet gambling, particularly wrt sports betting.

and to clarify, I worked for an internet casino/poker room/online gaming site. I am well aware of what the UIGEA did.

in any case, Vegas business has been down for years now. internet sports betting is alive and well, and completely dwarfs the entire strip, combined

 

[makewayhomer]

Traditionally, sports betting has been assumed to following a market clearing model where the sportsbook essentially just acts as a middleman, matching bets for a fee. More recent research on sports markets has challenged that idea, suggesting that sportsbooks may act to "take positions" to maximize profits.

 

[makewayhomer]

They take sure things, and there ain't nothing more sure than collecting a 4.8% vig on equal action.

except when they don't

 

[mgcolby]

Sorry, but they didn't build all them palaces in the desert by gambling. They take sure things, and there ain't nothing more sure than collecting a 4.8% vig on equal action. Now don't get me wrong... it is not a foolproof system. Sometimes a casino can get "middled" and lose money on a game. But those situations are few and far between.
:ugh: Dude are you really this clueless? Is it really so tough to follow the conversation? My whole point is that that doesn't happen. You're asking me to explain something which I have been saying for several pages now doesn't take place. :ugh:
I didn't give an opinion on that matter. I asked for a source because I am interested in reading the stats behind the statement.

I get your point and you are wrong. So you can keep making the point but it does not make it true. So the concept of Reverse Line movement is lost on you?

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/75539-sports-betting-handicapping-reverse-line-movements

http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/advancedtheory/a/reverseline.htm

 

[Wolfpack]

lolol. that "point here or there" is how professional sports bettors make there living. you are trivializing the single most important thing in profitable sports betting - line shopping

Except we're not talking about bettors, we're talking about the house. My whole point is that the lines are set to ensure equal action. Now the casinos are not all tied into some centralized database whereby they all move their lines in lockstep unison. So yes, you can find a discrepancy from one place to the next when you look hard enough.

no - sports betting over the phone (and then internet) has been illegal for decades in the US. you don't know what the UIGEA did in 2006, it had almost no effect on the legality of internet gambling, particularly wrt sports betting.

What it did was go after the financial providers and banks who allowed such transactions. I didn't want to go into the details of the act since it is completely tangential to the whole point being made but I forgot this was the internet and you have to go into details or else someone thinks you don't know what you are saying.

and to clarify, I worked for an internet casino/poker room/online gaming site. I am well aware of what the UIGEA did.

in any case, Vegas business has been down for years now. internet sports betting is alive and well, and completely dwarfs the entire strip, combined

Well now that makes 3 of us who have worked in the industry.

If it makes you feel better, I am not arguing that point. But you should note that you have subtly changed the terms of the discussion. The original statement, which I am not sure I sign on to, said that that one single online sportsbook dwarfs all of Vegas. You're trying to change it to the entire world of online sportsbooks.

And of course it's all irrelevant because that isn't even really the point being argued.

 

[Wolfpack]

except when they don't

I admitted it wasn't a foolproof system because casinos cannot react instantaneously 100% across the board to every bet being placed. But dude, your article totally proves the point I have been making (thank you for posting it). The casinos set the line in an attempt to get equal action on both sides - or, when it comes to a money line, they try to set the line with payouts proportional to how they feel the money is going to be bet.

"People came into Las Vegas and they wanted to root for David," said Jay Kornegay, the executive director of the Las Vegas Hilton race and sports book. "The anticipated large wagers that we expected on the Patriots just never materialized."

Newsflash: That's the whole point I have been trying to make. They try to predict what the public will do and set their lines (and odds) accordingly. Like I said above, I admit it isn't a totally foolproof system. In this case they did a bad job predicting the public's behavior. But they weren't deliberately trying to steer action to one team.

And here's another paragraph from your article that proves what I was saying:

Kornegay said the amount wagered was weighted to the Giants by as much as 60 percent -- heavy action that caused many books to shift their opening lines from the Patriots being favored by 14 points down to 12.

60% of the wagering was on one side. So how did the casinos respond? By shifting the line in order to try and even out the action!! That's the whole point I have been making in this entire thread! And yet people in this thread think that 85% of the action can go to one side and the casinos don't respond to that at all.

 

[Wolfpack]

I get your point and you are wrong. So you can keep making the point but it does not make it true. So the concept of Reverse Line movement is lost on you?

Yeah I know what "reverse line movement" is. It's something people always talk about after-the-fact with 20/20 hindsight which "proves" their outlandish conspiracy theories are true.

Tell ya what... come to us on Saturday and tell us which games are the ones with "reverse line movement" and we'll see how those games do.