Semi OT: What's with the lopsided betting trends this week?

[Water Boy]

According to Sportsbook.com there are a total of 6 games including the Pats Chargers with heavily lopsided betting trends.

Pats +2.5 78%
Chargers -2.5 22%

Steelers -3.0 82%
Miami +3.0 18%

Jags +9 21%
Chiefs -9 79%

Bills +14 28%
Ravens -14 72%

49ers -3 73%
Panthers +3 27%

Cards +7 19%
Seahawks -7 81%

What the hell are the oddsmakers doing? I predict that at least 3 of these games go in favor of the house. Hopefully the Pats Chargers game isn't one of them.

 

[Patriot Missile]

I don't know but I don't like it. Let's just say it seems like Vegas likes to dangle carots sometimes and it makes me nervous.

 

[Jackson 2]

I don't know but I don't like it. Let's just say it seems like Vegas likes to dangle carots sometimes and it makes me nervous.

I'm with you. Smells bad.

 

[notex]

I'm with you. Smells bad.

I teased 3 of the more lopsided ones...:singing: hopefully that works


I am suprised the pats are underdogs - not very often a 4-1 team is underdog to a 2-4 team regardless of home/away

 

[GostkowSKI]

Essentially professional gamblers keep the spreads honest.

For example, if you or I walked into one of the major casinos right now and wagered $10,000 on the Pats taking the 3, the line probably won't move.

However, if right behind is in line is a well respected professional gambler who wagers $1,000 on the Chargers laying the 3, that has more influence on the line that the average Joe wagering 10x the money.

So the betting trends would look like this on those 2 wagers: Pats 91%, Chargers 9%.

However, they'd take more stock in the professional gamblers wager than either of ours.

Another way of looking at it is that if casinos overreacted and adjusted lines just based on all the public money coming in by moving them multiple points, then pros would swoop in and clean up every week.

 

[mgcolby]

I read last night that Boumann is probably starting for the Jags, and pounced on KC -10 for 3 units.

I badly want to take the Ravens and probably will before 1pm, but I can't help but wonder if last weeks game took a toll on them.

I liked SF as well Carolina is averaging 8.5ppg, but Moore is starting today. Still loking at some other games.

I took the following this week:

KC -10 3 units (guessed wrong on where the line was going, could of had it at -9 this morning)
Bal -12.5 4 units
Mia ML 1 unit
Phi ML 1 unit

 

[jmt57]

Ravens game is tough to stay away from. Even though last week's game took a toll out of Baltimore physically (5 quarters) and mentally, I would expect them to come out that much more fired up and take out their frustrations from last week's game on the Bills. Buffalo is considered by most everybody to be the league's worst team, and they are on the road at a team that a week ago was considered to be the best team in the league by some, and at least in the top three by most. Buffalo is giving up 182 yards per game on the ground, by far the worst in the NFL, and 4.8 yards per carry, 3rd worst in the league, to Ray Rice and company.


I'll be very interested in seeing how these six games turn out.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Ravens game is tough to stay away from. Even though last week's game took a toll out of Baltimore physically (5 quarters) and mentally, I would expect them to come out that much more fired up and take out their frustrations from last week's game on the Bills. Buffalo is considered by most everybody to be the league's worst team, and they are on the road at a team that a week ago was considered to be the best team in the league by some, and at least in the top three by most. Buffalo is giving up 182 yards per game on the ground, by far the worst in the NFL, and 4.8 yards per carry, 3rd worst in the league, to Ray Rice and company.


I'll be very interested in seeing how these six games turn out.

I think the Bills would beat Carolina but that's it,Carolina is worse IMO

 

[Water Boy]

I badly want to take the Ravens and probably will before 1pm, but I can't help but wonder if last weeks game took a toll on them.

Looks like you've got a favorable line at -12.5. The spread I've seen is Baltimore -14. I loath games where the favorite needs to cover that many points, but no way would I put any money on Buffalo.

 

[mgcolby]

Looks like you've got a favorable line at -12.5. The spread I've seen is Baltimore -14. I loath games where the favorite needs to cover that many points, but no way would I put any money on Buffalo.

It was at 13 for the past few days, it dropped to 12.5 sometime this morning.

 

[Water Boy]

It was at 13 for the past few days, it dropped to 12.5 sometime this morning.

I noticed that. Surprising given all the money that's on Baltimore.

 

[SanAngeloState]

Casinos wouldn't care if the "pros swoop in" to rake in all the money...it's not the casino's money they are taking, it's the opposite side. The casinos are just taking the vig as a fee. No risk that way.

maybe those bets are just from one particular site.

Ravens are trailing against the bills. Unlikely to win by 14.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Well, Miami just covered, so there's one.

 

[BradyFTW!]

It was at 13 for the past few days, it dropped to 12.5 sometime this morning.

You could get in at 12.5 yesterday on Bodog- that was the first time I checked. I stay away from lines that high, though, whether 12.5 or 14.

 

[mgcolby]

You could get in at 12.5 yesterday on Bodog- that was the first time I checked. I stay away from lines that high, though, whether 12.5 or 14.

Yeah, I should have headed my own advice. I added a late unit on KC so they washed each other out and I lost the juice. But given the situation I was in at halftime in those two games, I'll gladly lose the juice.

But now I get to feel better and root for the Bills.

 

[Wolfpack]

What the hell are the oddsmakers doing? I predict that at least 3 of these games go in favor of the house. Hopefully the Pats Chargers game isn't one of them.

The oddsmakers are doing what they always do: Setting the lines to do their best to get equal action on each side. Some obscure statisitc from some obscure offshore sportsbook does nothing to change that fact.

They didn't build all them palaces in the desert by gambling. If Vegas was trying to get all the gamblers to pick one team over another, then they're essentially doing gambling of their own.

 

[Wolfpack]

Essentially professional gamblers keep the spreads honest.

For example, if you or I walked into one of the major casinos right now and wagered $10,000 on the Pats taking the 3, the line probably won't move.

However, if right behind is in line is a well respected professional gambler who wagers $1,000 on the Chargers laying the 3, that has more influence on the line that the average Joe wagering 10x the money.

So the betting trends would look like this on those 2 wagers: Pats 91%, Chargers 9%.

However, they'd take more stock in the professional gamblers wager than either of ours.

Another way of looking at it is that if casinos overreacted and adjusted lines just based on all the public money coming in by moving them multiple points, then pros would swoop in and clean up every week.

Yeah, that isn't even remotely how it works. The casino wants equal action on both sides. They don't care if it comes from professionals or regular joes. If the money is coming in heavily for one side, they shift the line. If it falls within the desired 48%-52% spread, the line will stay constant.

 

[mgcolby]

Yeah, that isn't even remotely how it works. The casino wants equal action on both sides. They don't care if it comes from professionals or regular joes. If the money is coming in heavily for one side, they shift the line. If it falls within the desired 48%-52% spread, the line will stay constant.

That is simply not true. There are sharps that can move the line with a bet.

 

[jmt57]

Let's look at the results.


Pats +2.5 78%
Chargers -2.5 22%
Pats 23, Chargers 20
The majority wins


Steelers -3.0 82%
Miami +3.0 18%
Steelers 23, Dolphins 22
The majority loses


Jags +9 21%
Chiefs -9 79%
Chiefs 42, Jaguars 20
The majority wins


Bills +14 28%
Ravens -14 72%
Ravens 37, Bills 34
The majority loses


49ers -3 73%
Panthers +3 27%
Panthers 23, 49ers 20
The majority loses


Cards +7 19%
Seahawks -7 81%
Seahawks 22, Cardinals 10
The majority wins



The majority wins three and the majority loses three.

The only winners are the pros, and the house.

 

[GostkowSKI]

That is simply not true. There are sharps that can move the line with a bet.

You're correct, and if you're interested here's a book that I thought was a great read:

Amazon.com: Lay the Favorite: A Memoir of Gambling (9780385526456): Beth Raymer: Books: Reviews, Prices & more

Here's a quote from the book that supports what you're saying....

On the screen in front of me, the basketball game changed from minus 155 to minus 159. I realized Dinky's opinion was so respected that when he or his crew bet money on a game, the office we bet with changed their odds. I thought that was cool as hell.