Rich Hill: The Patriots have the No. 1 defense in the league before garbage time

[Rhodey]

Patriots Defense Playing Tremendously, but Garbage Time Skews the Stats

The Patriots are allowing just 19 points per game, currently tied for eighth in the NFL. But with the help of their stellar offense, the Patriots put away the games so early and bury opposing teams so quickly that their non-garbage time defense ranks #1 in the entire league. Think of this way: nearly 50% of the Patriots points allowed have come after they've clinched 99% chance of victory.

For the last 3-4 weeks, I've been wondering about this..how good the Pats defensive number would look had they not given away points after being up by a significant margin.

 

[Tony2046]

But it's not. This is not a defense that is creating mistakes, or at least capitalizing on them, at even an above-average rate. Patriots have forced 10 takeaways (8 int, 2 fum) which is good for T13th in the league, and is midway between the most (19) and least (3), and there are teams that have only played 6 games to this point.

There have been lots of times when QBs have held the ball for more than three seconds looking for receivers, and/or have scrambled and broken the pocket. That happens more often than a one-two-sack count. The coverage is holding up and I think most of that is Collins and Chung and whoever is playing FS (McCourty, Harmon). The middle of the field has been mostly closed to TEs whereas in the pre-2014 past teams ate the Pats up there.

This IS a defense that is forcing QBs to make an inordinate number of sideline throws, the most difficult throw, and that's where most of the Pats INTs are coming from. Harmon is making hay on offline deep sideline throws, and Ryan is very effective identifying shorter sideline routes and stepping in front of them.

Great post. You're right I am not giving enough credit to the secondary. I haven't seen a percentage of ball distribution by the opposing team but would like to see that.

I disagree with turnovers created stat I prefer turnover differential combined with offensive rankings. New England ranks second in Turnover differential with +7 which gave the number 2 scoring offense 7 more chances than the opposing team to put points on the board. In other words a turnover for the Patriots has more offensive value than a turnover for a 32nd ranked offensive team.

The defense has 26 sacks, ranked 4th in sack percentage and it is currently ranked 3rd in Football outsiders pass protection stat which is based on pass rush, sack rates etc.. OR this defense is creating pressure on opposing offenses. (Btw....NE defense was ranked 20th in pass protection last year)

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2015 DEFENSIVE LINES

But Sacks and pressure doesn't tell the whole story in that I think they scheme against the run and allow the QB to throw and just wait for the QB to make a mistake (incompletion, interception etc..) and basically get the ball back to the offense without giving up too many points. I think that's why we see a lot of 3rd down conversions by the opposing offenses in that they are willing to let the QB throw as long as they take away the run.

They held the Jets (136 ypg avg) to 89 yards total rushing yards.

They held the Phins (100 ypg avg) to 15 yards total rushing yards. Yikes. Along with 5 sacks and 10 hits.
And this was without Sheard.


Anyways my original point is that in order to compensate for the loss of Revis etc... they beefed up on their front 7 to force the opposing offenses into mistakes, turnovers and other drive killing miscues. And that's what I think we are seeing.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

It would be interesting to see a points per drive stat to really show the rankings. However, the point is taken. The Patriots defense has been absolutely dominant this season.

 

[FourierSeries]

Our safeties have been superb this year.

This is something that I never thought I'd be saying 2 years ago: but Chung has been an absolute beast in coverage.

And for as much flack as the CBs have received, Butler, Ryan, and Coleman have all been solid.

I won't be upset at all if we don't add another CB before the trade deadline. In fact, with all of the OL injuries, I could see Bill looking to add more OL depth, as opposed to getting another CB.

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

It would be interesting to see a points per drive stat to really show the rankings.

According to Rich Hill, the Patriots rank 8th in points allowed per drive (PAPD), sandwiched between the the Packers and the Cardinals.

 

[Tony2046]

It would be interesting to see a points per drive stat to really show the rankings. However, the point is taken. The Patriots defense has been absolutely dominant this season.

I think of the Patriot defense and ST as a compliment to the offense. So points per drive, IMO, doesn't tell the whole story. Points differential plus a average drive start diff gives you a better idea of how each phase of the game is complimenting the other.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

According to Rich Hill, the Patriots rank 8th in points allowed per drive (PAPD), sandwiched between the the Packers and the Cardinals.

And this is with the 99% win probability drives taken out?

 

[Oswlek]

I disagree with turnovers created stat I prefer turnover differential combined with offensive rankings. New England ranks second in Turnover differential with +7

TO diff is a great team stat, but it's not a good defensive stat since it includes your offense's propensity to lose the ball.

 

[glm]

I don't know. I mean look yeah no one CB is playing near an All Pro level, but they are hardly liabilities. People seem to forget some of those bad secondaries of years past with just complete breakdowns and dudes running wide open (kind of like what we do to teams on a weekly basis on offense).

Deltha O'Neal says hello

 

[Tony2046]

TO diff is a great team stat, but it's not a good defensive stat since it includes your offense's propensity to lose the ball.

I use it as a complementary stat. How is the defense complementing the offense. In the Pats case the defense has given a net +7 scoring opportunities to the #2 scoring offense in the league.

 

[Oswlek]

I use it as a complementary stat. How is the defense complementing the offense. In the Pats case the defense has given a net +7 scoring opportunities to the #2 scoring offense in the league.

I agree with your vantage point, but I think the application is wrong. If a couple of NE's fumbles bounced into opposing hands and the differential were +4, would that change how the defense has performed?

If we're trying to figure out what the defense has contributed, the best way to go about it is to isolate it as much as possible in the analysis. IMO, anyway.

 

[JMC00]

Interesting read. However other good Ds allow garbage points too. The Patriots have seen more garbage time than maybe anyone though.

Denver's defense has only had 2 drives when their team had a 99% win probability. Oakland and Detroit

 

[DaBruinz]

When talking about this defense, you can't just talk about certain aspects. You need to talk about the WHOLE.

Yes, the number of turnovers (8 Interceptions (6th in the league)/ 2 Forced Fumbles) isn't where we normally see the Patriots. However, the number of SACKS (26), QB Hurries (25), and QB Hits (33) is up substantially. That is 26 sacks after 7 games.. The Pats defense has also drawn 17 penalties through 7 games..

The 84 times the Patriots have gotten to the QB is on 277 pass attempts. That is 30% of the time the Pats are getting to the QB.. This type of pressure is something we've never seen (imho) out of a Belichick defense.. Certainly not in 2001, 2003 or 2004.

The 2005 Defense (arguably the Pats worst defense under Belichick) had 33 sacks on the entire season. This Pats team is likely to surpass it by Game 9.

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

Sunday NFL Thoughts: Garbage Time, Cameron Wake, and Stork vs Andrews

Here are the points where the Patriots achieved 99% chance of victory:

Steelers: 10:21 left in the 4th quarter

Bills: 4:15 left in the 3rd quarter

Jaguars: 0:36 left in the 2nd quarter

Cowboys: 9:55 left in the 3rd quarter

Colts: 12:56 left in the 4th quarter

Jets: 1:18 left in the 4th quarter

Dolphins: 0:29 left in the 2nd quarter

This means that the Patriots have spent 30.1% of their games in garbage time, and this is where they've allowed 47.4% of their points. You can draw your own conclusions, but you would expect the percentage of garbage time to be equal to the percentage of points allowed if you believed garbage time doesn't matter. The Patriots don't actually have the best defense in the league, but they're a perfect complement to the offense, and that is exactly what is needed.