Report: Brandon Lloyd's 'erratic behavior proved tiresome', may lead to release

[Sciz]

He was targeted 130 times. 7.00 yards per target. Also a measly 180 yards after catch. Of the top 40 (yards-wise) receivers in the NFL, Lloyd was ranked 38th in YAC. The only players worse than that were Maclolm Floyd and Lance Moore, who averaged about 14 and 16 YPC respectively, so they are typically working the deep zone. Lloyd worked the short-middle zone all year and couldn't produce anything except a fall to the ground.

I'm not sure Lloyd would be worth bringing back at no cost. He truly may be a net loss when you consider his high targets, relatively low yardage, and non existent YAC abilities.

YAC is a terrible stat. What advantage does a player who averages a 4 yard catch plus 7 yards of YAC have over a player who averages 12 yards per catch and 0 yards of YAC?

 

[Rob0729]

People here are making too big a deal out of his producttion and not focusing in on scheme. Lloyd never fit the patriots offense like a glove the way welker or edelman have. Lloyd was a third or 4th option for brady. Lloyd may have had his yards, but wallace is much better for the team's needs. Brady struggles against the ravens and giants because all of his receivers including lloyd are running 10-15 yard routes. If you confine the offense to a limited portion of the field on any given down then you are limiting your success.

A few things:

• Lloyd was the #2 WR in an offense with Gronk, Welker, and Hernandez. He was brought in to be the third or fourth option in this offense. He was never brought in to be a primary target and his contract reflected that.
• Edelman and Lloyd are different receivers. Edelman fit in because he was more because he is an over the middle type of receiver who can be hit in stride. That is the Pats' bread and butter.
• How does anyone know Wallace is much better for the team's needs? I don't know if Wallace has ever been known for being a route runner and this team needs WRs to be able to run routes, make presnap adjustments, and grasp the complicated playbook. What we don't know is whether Wallace fits that bill.
• Brady struggled against the Ravens not because he didn't have receivers who could run routes more than 10-15 yards, but because he didn't have a go to red zone threat with Gronk out. The Pats had little problem moving the ball between the 20s especially in the first half (hence why Brady threw for 320 yards). The Pats got into most of their trouble when they got inside the red zone which is why they only had 13 points in five trips into the red zone. The Pats were missing Gronk or a Anquan Boldin WR, not a burner.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Well you better find someone else to wish for, because Wallace isn't happening for a ton of reasons.

The formula for winning super bowls these days are an elite qb + 2 game breakers at WR + marginal defense. Pats have no one at WR who is close to being a game breaker like cruz or nicks. And the TEs don't have great straight line speed. Wallace may not be the guy, but they have to look for someone in the draft.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

A few things:

• Lloyd was the #2 WR in an offense with Gronk, Welker, and Hernandez. He was brought in to be the third or fourth option in this offense. He was never brought in to be a primary target and his contract reflected that.
• Edelman and Lloyd are different receivers. Edelman fit in because he was more because he is an over the middle type of receiver who can be hit in stride. That is the Pats' bread and butter.
• How does anyone know Wallace is much better for the team's needs? I don't know if Wallace has ever been known for being a route runner and this team needs WRs to be able to run routes, make presnap adjustments, and grasp the complicated playbook. What we don't know is whether Wallace fits that bill.
• Brady struggled against the Ravens not because he didn't have receivers who could run routes more than 10-15 yards, but because he didn't have a go to red zone threat with Gronk out. The Pats had little problem moving the ball between the 20s especially in the first half (hence why Brady threw for 320 yards). The Pats got into most of their trouble when they got inside the red zone which is why they only had 13 points in five trips into the red zone. The Pats were missing Gronk or a Anquan Boldin WR, not a burner.

Im not buying the Gronk excuse. gronk played aganst the ravens during the regular season and they still lost. Gronk and hernandez also played aanst the jets in 2010 and the giants in the 2012 regular season game. And who is to say they would have beaten SF even if they did get by the ravens?

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

YAC is a terrible stat. What advantage does a player who averages a 4 yard catch plus 7 yards of YAC have over a player who averages 12 yards per catch and 0 yards of YAC?

It is terrible if taken with no context, but I already provided the 7.0 YPT number, which shows an extremely low rate of production per target. And this stat is very relevant, as guys like Calvin Johnson and Rob Gronkowski are typically among the league leaders, proving your eyes don't lie. The YAC becomes relevant because it shows that Lloyd is a terrible fit for this scheme, which clearly relies heavily on YAC, unless you are a burner who works the deep zone of the field. In other words, the reason Lloyds yards per target is so atrociously low is because he cannot do anything after he catches the ball.

I'll give you a very relevant example:

In 2010, Deion Branch had 92 targets, 818 yards, and 272 YAC. Breakdown: each target results in an average of 5.93 yards in the air, 2.96 YAC, and 8.89 yards total.

In 2012, Brandon Lloyd had 130 targets, 911 yards, and 180 YAC.
Breakdown: each target results in an average of 5.62 yards in the air, 1.38 YAC, and 7.00 yards total.

Branch 2010: 5.93 yards at point of catch, 2.96 YAC, 8.89 yards total.
Lloyd 2012: 5.62 yards at point of catch, 1.38 YAC, 7.00 yards total.

Branch and Lloyd had very similar roles in the offense, and the yards at point of catch are not that far off. The main difference was Branch's ability to run precise routes (resulting in opening more space) and do something besides fall down.

Again, the yards at point of catch are close, but when you look at the ultimate result, which factors in the Yards after Catch, you have a big difference. At 8.89 yards per target, Branch is a very good WR and should have garnered pro bowl consideration in 2010- that average puts him among very good receivers. At 7.00 yards per target, Lloyd should rightfully be on the bench somewhere. Cut the number in half and tell me the difference between a running back who averages 4.45 yards against a running back who averages 3.5 yards per carry.

 

[DaBruinz]

So glad to read this. Lloyd's salary to production ratio is beyond horrendous. I posted throughout the season his yards per target numbers, and they were well below Reche Caldwell and virtually every receiver we've ever had. A hobbled Hernandez outperformed him handily.

I'd much rather save this money for the secondary or spend $2-3M on a real WR who makes the offense better or a young, promising WR who will at least be on the team for a handful of years. I hope we draft a tall speedster, but let's just take what we can get.

Yards per Target? Since when did that EVER become an actual STAT other than in your own mind? Seriously. Yards per Reception are what matter. Drops are what matter. Not some bogus stat that penalizes the receiver for poor throws by the QB..

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Yards per Target? Since when did that EVER become an actual STAT other than in your own mind? Seriously. Yards per Reception are what matter. Drops are what matter. Not some bogus stat that penalizes the receiver for poor throws by the QB..

Are you kidding? So a guy who is targeted 15 times and catches 1 pass for 80 yards in the best player in the league? Yards per target is the best stat out there for evaluating a player's production. If you watch a season and then look at the YPT, it will confirm everything you thought you saw.

 

[Rob0729]

Im not buying the Gronk excuse. gronk played aganst the ravens during the regular season and they still lost. Gronk and hernandez also played aanst the jets in 2010 and the giants in the 2012 regular season game.

The Pats scored 30 points vs. the Ravens in the regular season. How does that have to with the fact that the Ravens scored 31 points with 503 yards of offense.

Gronk and Hernandez were rookies in 2010. And they did nothing to help the defense make Mark Sanchez look like Drew Brees.

Again, every game is different. But if you watched the AFCCG, the Pats drove down the field and stalled in the red zone quite a bit. What would a burner who can run 30 yard routes do to help the Pats on a 3rd and 8 on the Raven's 15 yard line.

 

[Raymond]

Ok, but "lloyd likely out" would have had the same effect....it reflects more what bedard's report actually said. My original title was not "Lloyd out in NE" but "REPORT: lloyd out in NE" - meaning that a third party was behind it.

The title is just fine. Eleven words? What, you think we don't have enough of an attenti :woot:

 

[Uncle Rico]

Bedard expands on his comments a bit:

I wouldn't say that Lloyd was a bad guy who the team must jettison or anything. It was just the type of up-and-down mood swings that we heard a lot about in his previous stops:

...

You just never know what you're going to get with Lloyd, and either you can deal with it or you can't. For example, talked to one player a few weeks ago that said he was talking to Lloyd about something and suddenly Lloyd said in mid-sentence, "I don't want to talk to you anymore," and put his headphones on.
It's one thing for that unevenness to be dealt with in the locker room and on the practice field, but when you combine it with his inconsistent play ... the Patriots love consistency. Anything that disrupts the flow of the season too often becomes a nuisance and tiresome. That was Lloyd.

Still says a return isn't out of the question, just a topic being discussed thoroughly within Gillette offices.

 

[DaBruinz]

He was targeted 130 times. 7.00 yards per target. Also a measly 180 yards after catch. Of the top 40 (yards-wise) receivers in the NFL, Lloyd was ranked 38th in YAC. The only players worse than that were Maclolm Floyd and Lance Moore, who averaged about 14 and 16 YPC respectively, so they are typically working the deep zone. Lloyd worked the short-middle zone all year and couldn't produce anything except a fall to the ground.

There is no such stat as Yards per target. It is something made up by you and is meaningless. Why? Because it puts all the onus on the RECEIVER for Bad Throws, Passes defensed, etc.

Does it really matter that Lloyd was 38th out of the top 40 receivers in YAC? No. It doesn't because that was never his game.. Oh.. If he couldn't produce anything other than falling to the ground, what do you call the 50 1st downs that he got?

And everyone knew going into the season that Lloyd would be the #3 or #4 receiving option behind Welker, Hernandez, and Gronkowski. Holding that against him is hypocritical.

 

[DaBruinz]

Im not buying the Gronk excuse. gronk played aganst the ravens during the regular season and they still lost. Gronk and hernandez also played aanst the jets in 2010 and the giants in the 2012 regular season game. And who is to say they would have beaten SF even if they did get by the ravens?

Why did they lose the regular season game against the Ravens? There is one reason and 1 reason only. The replacement Refs who didn't know the rules regarding a field goal. .

Sorry, but your rebuttal is wanting in a huge way.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

The Pats scored 30 points vs. the Ravens in the regular season. How does that have to with the fact that the Ravens scored 31 points with 503 yards of offense.

Gronk and Hernandez were rookies in 2010. And they did nothing to help the defense make Mark Sanchez look like Drew Brees.

Again, every game is different. But if you watched the AFCCG, the Pats drove down the field and stalled in the red zone quite a bit. What would a burner who can run 30 yard routes do to help the Pats on a 3rd and 8 on the Raven's 15 yard line.

And hernandez and gronk played most of the 2011 AFCCG where the offense was outplayed badly....the problem goes beyond gronk. You're lookng at one game, im thinking bigger picture. How can you not say a burner wouln't help? If the offense has the ball on its own 30 and brady drops ine in there to a mike wallace or another deep threat, the offense scores points instead of stallng in the red zone. This death by a thousand paper cuts thing just isn't working. Either that or brady isn't suited to throw the deep ball which is a huge problem.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Why did they lose the regular season game against the Ravens? There is one reason and 1 reason only. The replacement Refs who didn't know the rules regarding a field goal. .

Sorry, but your rebuttal is wanting in a huge way.

What about 2010 v jets, 2011 v giants (regular season), etc? The problem goes way beyond a healthy Gronk, heck if that was the case there would have been no reason to sign lloyd last offseason.

 

[Kontradiction]

Im not buying the Gronk excuse. gronk played aganst the ravens during the regular season and they still lost. Gronk and hernandez also played aanst the jets in 2010 and the giants in the 2012 regular season game. And who is to say they would have beaten SF even if they did get by the ravens?

The defense sucked in the regular season game against the Ravens. So did the officiating.

 

[DaBruinz]

Are you kidding? So a guy who is targeted 15 times and catches 1 pass for 80 yards in the best player in the league? Yards per target is the best stat out there for evaluating a player's production. If you watch a season and then look at the YPT, it will confirm everything you thought you saw.

You really don't know what you are talking about. Again, there is no such thing as Yards per Target. And please don't put words in my mouth. Especially ones that make no sense the way your example makes no sense.

Yards per target is not a stat and nothing about it can evaluate a receivers production. Your claim is ludicrous and has no actual foundation in reality.

ONE stat can not, in any way, shape or form, give you any indication of a players production. And a fictitious stat like "Yards per Target" certainly can't do that since it penalizes the receiver for issues that aren't his. Such as a QB making a bad throw (be it out of bounds, into the ground, over-thrown, intercepted, or defensed).

While you have your opinion that Lloyd stunk, it's certainly not supported by some bogus "stat".

 

[BradyManny]

Im not buying the Gronk excuse. gronk played aganst the ravens during the regular season and they still lost. Gronk and hernandez also played aanst the jets in 2010 and the giants in the 2012 regular season game. And who is to say they would have beaten SF even if they did get by the ravens?

The Patriots "lost" to the Ravens in the early part of the season almost solely because of the refs. They dominated that game and would've blown them out if not for the refs giving Baltimore 5 downs on several occasions.

 

[DaBruinz]

What about 2010 v jets, 2011 v giants (regular season), etc? The problem goes way beyond a healthy Gronk, heck if that was the case there would have been no reason to sign lloyd last offseason.

What about the 2010 Jets game? Gronk and Hernandez were rookies. The defense was horrid. The O-line had a let down game.

They lost the 2011 game against the Giants due to poor clock management and the 2 interceptions thrown by Brady.

There was plenty of reason to sign Lloyd last off-season. It was to give Brady another weapon and taken pressure off of Gronkowski and Hernandez. Anyone with half a brain could understand that. What you fail to acknowledge is that losing someone who has produced as many TDs as Gronk did in his 1st 2 seasons is a huge loss. And that production has to be made up some how.

Part of that if from the players and part of that is from the scheme. And that includes Brady.

BTW, could you show me where anyone said it was ONLY Gronk's health because that's not what Rob said.. He said not having a 2nd red zone target.

 

[BradyBranch39]

This happens to him every year. Look at the amount of teams that have let him walk.

That said, if we do let him walk, we need to not only keep Welker and Edelman, but get somebody who can directly replace Lloyd.

Percy?

 

[Rob0729]

And hernandez and gronk played most of the 2011 AFCCG where the offense was outplayed badly....the problem goes beyond gronk. You're lookng at one game, im thinking bigger picture. How can you not say a burner wouln't help? If the offense has the ball on its own 30 and brady drops ine in there to a mike wallace or another deep threat, the offense scores points instead of stallng in the red zone. This death by a thousand paper cuts thing just isn't working. Either that or brady isn't suited to throw the deep ball which is a huge problem.

Gronk had a great game until he got hurt in the 2011 AFCCG. He had 8 catches for 87 yards in the first three quarters. He was injured at the beginning of the fourth and used as a decoy only going forward. If he was healthy for the entire game, he would have probably had well over 100 yards.

I was responding to your post about how the Pats were missing a burner against the Ravens in the championship game a month or so ago. You said the Pats struggled against the Ravens and the Giants because they lack a burner and I will argue the Pats have one or possibly two Super Bowls over the last two years if they had a healthy Gronk against those teams in the playoffs.

I am thinking big picture, not just one game. I think a burner like Wallace is an overprice luxury rather than a must spend on team necessity. Again, I feel this team is a healthy Gronk away from two Super Bowls (or at least one and possible at least another Super Bowl appearance) over the last two years.

Where this team needs to improve is on defense. They let Flacco pass all over them in the second half in this AFC Championship Game, couldn't stop Eli Manning from mounting a two minute TD drive when they were up by 3 with 3 minutes left in the game, and couldn't stop the Ravens earlier in the season. Yet, every time the Pats lose in the playoffs, all we hear about is how the offense is broken.