Reiss:Angelo's view on misguided Pats plan

[Brady_to_Moss]

Demaryius Thomas, was on the Broncos 2 years before peyton showed up and had a total of 800 yards and 6 TD's Julius Thomas, was there a full season before Peyton and had 1 rec before this season, Eric Decker was there best WR before Manning was on the team and he had a total of 50 rec 700 yards and 9 TD's in two full seasons, Wes Welker was the only new guy they give peyton and he went right back to the player he was with the fish a 70 rec slot WR/PR,

as much as we hate to admit Peyton Manning made that team and its receivers what they are, as for the writer saying BB pretty much treated Brady like a game manager not giving him weapons come on they signed Danny and Edelman Drafted two WR's with vereen and the best TE in the NFL. the pats averaged 33 points a game with Gronk in the game,


Denver had over 500 yards 27 first downs and was on the field for over 35 min your not going to win in the playoffs like that, the pats have been in the top 3 in scoring offense the last 4 years Brady does not need more Weapons the defense just has to find a was to get off the field and give Brady more shots at scoring

He needs at least another quality TE outside of Rob. At his age Brady needs quite a lot.

 

[Deus Irae]

Demaryius Thomas, was on the Broncos 2 years before peyton showed up and had a total of 800 yards and 6 TD's Julius Thomas, was there a full season before Peyton and had 1 rec before this season, Eric Decker was there best WR before Manning was on the team and he had a total of 50 rec 700 yards and 9 TD's in two full seasons, Wes Welker was the only new guy they give peyton and he went right back to the player he was with the fish a 70 rec slot WR/PR,

as much as we hate to admit Peyton Manning made that team and its receivers what they are, as for the writer saying BB pretty much treated Brady like a game manager not giving him weapons come on they signed Danny and Edelman Drafted two WR's with vereen and the best TE in the NFL. the pats averaged 33 points a game with Gronk in the game,

D. Thomas had a significant foot injury which took him the best part of two seasons to overcome, and he was coming from a blocking-style college program, so he had to make some adjustments to the NFL. His injury limited him to 21 games and 7 starts in his first two seasons, and you could clearly see that foot affecting him for most of those games. You're also pointing to a wide receiver's rookie season and keeping it lumped together with his subsequent season.

With regards to Decker, you're again pointing to both the rookie and second seasons together. In fact, Decker's numbers showed a huge improvement, going from 6 catches to 44 catches. Decker was clearly a player on the come.

J. Thomas was another guy who couldn't stay healthy. He had zero catches with Peyton, Mighty Peyton, as his QB in 2012.

Peyton didn't make that team, or its receivers. Time and health did that, although I'm sure working extensively with Peyton helped out in terms of them getting on the same page quickly, and I'm sure that Peyton's famous meticulousness (much like Brady) means those players are running those routes the way that they are supposed to.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Bill Belichick has been the very best drafter in the NFL since 2000. Nobody gets everything right. Nobody. Belichick does it better than anybody over the long haul. Which is why the Pats are one of the very best teams in the NFL every single year.

You guys are killing my Top Ten Pats Homo status. Just killin' it!

 

[Sicilian]

Not that I disagree with your take here, but to also point out another big part of the Miami problem, because it could be of importance for the Patriots going forward. A fair part of the reason Wallace wasn't getting those catches was because of two other things:

The play calling minimized Wallace's impact.
The QB didn't ever really figure out how to get on the same page with Wallace.

Both fair points. As with most observations, there's always a web of things that contribute to what you see. I just always thought it was an odd thing to overlook on Miami's part, and the season seemed to confirm that (again, for multiple reasons).

 

[Rob0729]

You guys are killing my Top Ten Pats Homo status. Just killin' it!

Well, you are sliding. You were top 3 at one point. You gotta work as hard as I do. I will never slip out of the top 5.

 

[Deus Irae]

Both fair points. As with most observations, there's always a web of things that contribute to what you see. I just always thought it was an odd thing to overlook on Miami's part, and the season seemed to confirm that (again, for multiple reasons).

Absolutely. It just makes me wonder just how much that's a QB issue. If Tannehill's lost the confidence in his long ball, that's a big plus for NE fans, because that's a lot of wasted money at that point.

 

[ivanvamp]

You guys are killing my Top Ten Pats Homo status. Just killin' it!

The article I linked to earlier plus CHFF did one as well a couple of years ago (Decade in the making: the ultimate NFL draft grades). It's a fact: the Patriots have been right at the top of the NFL in terms of their draft success since BB took over. The arguments against this always come in the form of "BB missed on this player here when he could have taken that player there", but you could say that for EVERY SINGLE TEAM, multiple times over. Those two studies give us actual data, form an actual baseline, for making such evaluations.

Deus' criticism that it takes into account players like Brady who have been to multiple Pro Bowls, etc., is spurious, for two reasons: (1) Drafting a true franchise player may be worth more than drafting three other "regular" Pro Bowl players, and (2) it also accounts for the Peyton Mannings, the Drew Brees', the Patrick Willis', etc., of the NFL, who also have been to multiple Pro Bowls. So if you're going to take Brady out of the mix you have to take out all the other guys who have been to more. Even taking Brady out, the Patriots STILL have drafted players with more Pro Bowl seasons than any other team, even if you allow the other teams to count their Peyton Mannings, Drew Brees, and Patrick Willis.

Moreover, when you factor in the idea that New England routinely has just about the worst starting position in every draft (over the time BB has been in charge, the Patriots have averaged the worst first round drafting position in the NFL), it gives you an appreciation for just how great a job BB has done.

It is a fact: BB has been the best drafter in the NFL. It's just true. He has PLENTY of misses, but he has still been the most successful drafter in the league.

 

[patsfan-1982]

D. Thomas had a significant foot injury which took him the best part of two seasons to overcome, and he was coming from a blocking-style college program, so he had to make some adjustments to the NFL. His injury limited him to 21 games and 7 starts in his first two seasons, and you could clearly see that foot affecting him for most of those games. You're also pointing to a wide receiver's rookie season and keeping it lumped together with his subsequent season.

With regards to Decker, you're again pointing to both the rookie and second seasons together. In fact, Decker's numbers showed a huge improvement, going from 6 catches to 44 catches. Decker was clearly a player on the come.

J. Thomas was another guy who couldn't stay healthy. He had zero catches with Peyton, Mighty Peyton, as his QB in 2012.

Peyton didn't make that team, or its receivers. Time and health did that, although I'm sure working extensively with Peyton helped out in terms of them getting on the same page quickly, and I'm sure that Peyton's famous meticulousness (much like Brady) means those players are running those routes the way that they are supposed to.

I agree they were all good young up and coming receivers that need it to stay healthy but they were all there before Manning got there not like the writer is saying they built the team around manning. and they never would have had they same type of season with any other QB short of Brady and brees

 

[Mack Herron]

and now for this year's interest:

Adam Schefter ?@AdamSchelter 18m

Source told me at Media Day that Patriots looking to shop Rob Gronkowski this offseason to Houston for Andre Johnson and Arian Foster.

 

[ivanvamp]

and now for this year's interest:

Hmmmm… That's very interesting. When all of them are healthy, Gronk is the best player of the group. But Andre Johnson is still great, and Foster is outstanding. Though BB doesn't value RBs that much. Maybe he's just worried that Gronk just won't be healthy enough to be worth the money he'll be getting soon.

Of course, this entire rumor could be total BS. But if it isn't, I'd have to think about how much I like it or not.

 

[Deus Irae]

...Deus' criticism that it takes into account players like Brady who have been to multiple Pro Bowls, etc., is spurious, for two reasons: (1) Drafting a true franchise player may be worth more than drafting three other "regular" Pro Bowl players, and (2) it also accounts for the Peyton Mannings, the Drew Brees', the Patrick Willis', etc., of the NFL, who also have been to multiple Pro Bowls. So if you're going to take Brady out of the mix you have to take out all the other guys who have been to more. Even taking Brady out, the Patriots STILL have drafted players with more Pro Bowl seasons than any other team, even if you allow the other teams to count their Peyton Mannings, Drew Brees, and Patrick Willis...

Deus' criticism is not spurious at all. It was simply one obvious example of the problems with the article. The time frame is another. When people talk about the Patriots drafting problems, they are generally referring to 2006-present, and that's a perfectly valid time frame to question (particularly 2006-2009) when you look back to analyze drafts. By deliberately elongating the time frame, the article deliberately blurs the issue.

The fact that just about half of the writer's argument falls on the shoulders of Brady/Seymour/Wilfork is just one issue among many.

 

[Sicilian]

Hmmmm… That's very interesting. When all of them are healthy, Gronk is the best player of the group. But Andre Johnson is still great, and Foster is outstanding. Though BB doesn't value RBs that much. Maybe he's just worried that Gronk just won't be healthy enough to be worth the money he'll be getting soon.

Of course, this entire rumor could be total BS. But if it isn't, I'd have to think about how much I like it or not.

It's definitely interesting. I think the thing that tips me towards not liking it is I'm not sold on Arian Foster being all that great. So it's basically Gronk for Johnson. It shores up outside WR, but leaves us with Mulligan and Hooman again for TE's (currently). Unless you think you're going to snag an elite TE again in the draft, this doesn't make your offense better IMO.

 

[ivanvamp]

Deus' criticism is not spurious at all. It was simply one obvious example of the problems with the article. The time frame is another. When people talk about the Patriots drafting problems, they are generally referring to 2006-present. By deliberately elongating the time frame, the article blurs the issue.

The fact that just about half of the writer's argument falls on the shoulders of Brady/Seymour/Wilfork is just one issue among many.

Silliness. The question is whether BB is good at drafting or not. So you have to take into account his entire track record, not just cherry pick the years you want to use.

That that article squares with what CHFF put together means there are two sources with similar research results. You have….what, exactly, other than criticisms?

 

[Danger Zone]

Deus' criticism is not spurious at all. It was simply one obvious example of the problems with the article. The time frame is another. When people talk about the Patriots drafting problems, they are generally referring to 2006-present, and that's a perfectly valid time frame to question (particularly 2006-2009) when you look back to analyze drafts. By deliberately elongating the time frame, the article blurs the issue.

The fact that just about half of the writer's argument falls on the shoulders of Brady/Seymour/Wilfork is just one issue among many.

Really.. you are going to start referring to yourself in the third-person?

 

[ivanvamp]

It's definitely interesting. I think the thing that tips me towards not liking it is I'm not sold on Arian Foster being all that great. So it's basically Gronk for Johnson. It shores up outside WR, but leaves us with Mulligan and Hooman again for TE's (currently). Unless you think you're going to snag an elite TE again in the draft, this doesn't make your offense better IMO.

The thing is, you acquire Foster to be your every-down back, not just a RB-by-committee guy. And when he's right, he's incredibly dynamic. His production, when healthy, is astounding.

And so if you get Foster to be that, what happens to Ridley? Just relegated to backup role? And Vereen as well? Because Foster is a three-down guy.

Johnson for Gronk is interesting. If Gronk is totally healthy, I wouldn't do it, but if he's not healthy, then I'd rather have Johnson.

Not buying the rumor, but at least it's something interesting to talk about.

 

[Deus Irae]

I agree they were all good young up and coming receivers that need it to stay healthy but they were all there before Manning got there not like the writer is saying they built the team around manning. and they never would have had they same type of season with any other QB short of Brady and brees

When you argue against players who were developing, and you were using an injury season for Welker as a rebuttal, you were clearly slanting the playing field. The bottom line is that the Broncos went out and got the game's best slot WR to compliment a group of very talented developing players, and kept a backup TE who was making more than $3m, while the Patriots let that same slot WR go and replaced him with an injury prone lesser version, also replacing their #1 outside WR with a pair of rookies in the process.

 

[Deus Irae]

Silliness. The question is whether BB is good at drafting or not. So you have to take into account his entire track record, not just cherry pick the years you want to use.

That that article squares with what CHFF put together means there are two sources with similar research results. You have….what, exactly, other than criticisms?

It's not silliness at all. It's pointing out that someone's trying to frame the discussion in the most pro-Patriots manner possible, which is exactly what the author was doing. IMO, BB is fine drafting, but he's had some really stupid picks and some really bad drafts. That stuff happens. There was no need for the writer to shade the argument, and doing so made his argument useless. It was pathetic homerism in the guise of a journalistic endeavor.

 

[ivanvamp]

It's not silliness at all. It's pointing out that someone's trying to frame the discussion in the most pro-Patriots manner possible, which is exactly what the author was doing. It was pathetic homerism in the guise of a journalistic endeavor.

As was CHFF's article that came to the same conclusion?

 

[Joker]

Source told me at Media Day that Patriots looking to shop Rob Gronkowski this offseason to Houston for Andre Johnson and Arian Foster.

 

[Deus Irae]

As was CHFF's article that came to the same conclusion?

When CHFF first came out, it was an excellent site. Now, even most of its supporters will tell you that it's decline is obvious. Hell, I went from checking it every day to barely looking at it.

Measuring a steady front office against those that have lasted fewer years is another way that the bias is built in. "Has NE been better 2010-2013 than SEA?" is a completely different issue than whether or not NE was better than an earlier, struggling SEA group. It's another example of why the time bias makes the article useless.