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Question for draft experts on the value of our Thirds

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by BelizePats, Jan 28, 2019.

  1. BelizePats

    BelizePats Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    I'm wondering what the value of our 3rd round pick from Detroit is in terms of using it with our second to move up? How many slots in the second would Detroits 3rd allow us to move up?

    We likely have two 3rd round comp picks that we can now trade, once they've been allocated to us. Roughly how many slots up in the second would one of these 3rd round comp picks move us when combined with the Bears second we own?

    I doubt very much the BB would do this but I think there will be some very good players available mid second round that won't be available later in the second. I'm just wondering how expensive it would be to get in to the mid second and what kind of draft capital (two of our thirds which still leaves us a third) it would take to make such moves.

    The Solder and Butler contracts will give us two thirds and I'm assuming that BB does not sign anyone where we would lose one of these picks.

    Thank you in advance.

    R
     

  2. jboston19

    jboston19 Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    Detroit gave us the 51 and 117 to move up to our 43 last year. The comp picks will be about 20-25 higher than that 117. With Detroit’s 3 and the bears 2, you could make a decent jump into the top realm of the 2, maybe including another late pick. We have 3 or 4 7th rounders as well.

    I think it’s much more likely we move down and push some picks to next year, depending on how free agency plays out.
     
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    Last edited: Jan 28, 2019
  3. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Just to clarify: nothing that happens now will affect the comp picks the Pats will get in the 2019 draft.
     
  4. BelizePats

    BelizePats Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    So even if we sign a couple of high priced free agents in March (not likely I know) we would not lose our comp picks this year? That is good to know..

    I have a feeling that there is going to be significant roster turnover this year, so while I'm sure BB will roll a pick or two in to 2020, I think that most of these picks will be used this year.

    I would use at least one of those probable two third round comp picks to move up in the second round. And possibly try to roll the other in to a second in 2020.
     
  5. jboston19

    jboston19 Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    No, any free agent signed after..... June or July (can’t remember which) doesn’t affect the comp picks for the folllowing year.

    Any free agents we sign this year will offset any we lose this year, with Flowers and Brown being the best chance at third rounders for us. Also, it depends on the value of the contract, so signing someone for a low value contract is not going to cancel out flowers or brown.
     
  6. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Sadly, that's not true.
    (1) FAs cancel out within a round first; if no one is available in that round, it cancels downward; if there are no lower picks, then it cancels upward.
    (2) If a team signs more qualifying FAs than it loses, it gets no comp picks, period, regardless of the value of the contracts.

    [That said, many FAs do not count toward the equation; as a rule, to count as a player lost or a player gained, a player must become a FA on the first day of FA via an expiring contract. Anyone cut doesn't count.]
     
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  7. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    There are a variety of trade charts available to research potential value to move up or down. This one is a good as any.

    2019 NFL Draft Trade Value Chart


    In simple terms based on NFL draft historyl with two late 3rd round picks you would be happy with a single decent backup \ situation starter.
     
  8. Taxed in Maine

    Taxed in Maine On the Game Day Roster

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    You can't trade Comp Picks. You have to make the pick in it's assigned position.
     
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  9. jboston19

    jboston19 Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    They changed this last year. You CAN trade them now.
     
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  10. BelizePats

    BelizePats Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    You can in fact now trade comp picks which is why I find this such a unique opportunity to do so and move up in the second round. There are some good looking receiving prospects like Marquise Brown out of Oklahoma and Parris Campbell out of OSU. These players might be around early to mid 40's but not late 50's. I was just trying to figure out how far up our comp 3rds might get us in combination with our two seconds?
     

  11. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    If you get a Jacoby Brisket, that's not bad.

    Of course, a Joe Tuna-y is much, much better. :)
     
  12. reamer

    reamer Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Receiver is very deep this year. I fully expect a double-dip at the position, but I don't see anyone worth trading up to draft; the incremental value isn't there for me when comparing similar prospects.
     
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  13. BelizePats

    BelizePats Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    Interesting. Then where do you see the value, if any, in hypothetically using a Comp 3rd in combination with our second (not Chicago's) to move up to draft a player? DE? Ferguson out of LT or LB (the kid from Georgia)
     
  14. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    In general, Belichick doesn't use high picks that way. From what I can tell, there are basically three requirements for Belichick to trade up in the first couple of rounds:
    • The player is unlikely to be available at the original pick.
    • The player is worth drafting at the higher pick.
    • He feels that getting that one player will likely help the team more than the player(s) he could have drafted at the original spots. [This doesn't really apply in later rounds, because of how little trade value late-round picks have.]
    So, in this case 63/64 + 97 can get you to somewhere around 52. So the real question for BB will be "Is there a player expected to go in the late first round/early second who is still available and good enough to give up the player we can take at 97?"
     
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    Last edited: Feb 1, 2019
  15. BelizePats

    BelizePats Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    I pretty much agree with your assessment of how and when BB trades up. Question. Where would Duke Dawson fit in to your analysis of when BB is willing to move up?

    With the two almost certain 3rd round comp picks, plus Detroit's 3rd, we have some ammo to move up to get a player. I'm not saying we will do this but given that we have virtually all of the injured 2018 draft class coming back in 2019, I think its a good time to use some of this draft capital to move up for the right player. Both our seconds in 2019 are at the back of the round. Why not move up for the right player with one of those comp 3rds?

    Wynn, Dawson, Bentley, Sam and Barrios will all be back and likely making the team. It's pretty incredible how little we've actually gotten out of 2018 draft class this season. Only Michel and Crossen have contributed, which is pretty amazing given that we are in the Super Bowl on Sunday. It will almost be like getting another a whole other rookie class when training camp starts in July!

    We will almost certainly roll some of the 2019 draft capital in to 2020 but that still leaves us with 8-9 picks in this years draft. To me it just seems like the right time to enhance our seconds by using our comp 3rds.
     
  16. reamer

    reamer Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    There was a run on DBs. So they got the guy they wanted before he was gone.
     
  17. reamer

    reamer Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I really don't want to trade up. The mid rounds have a ton of talent. We have a lot of older players who will need to be replaced in the next few years, and we don't have a lot of younger players on cheap contracts from the last several years. I like our drafted players, but we don't have that many of them right now. We have an extensive number of free agents, plus potential retirees, and I want to use as many picks as possible.

    In fact, I'd be fine trading out of the first round, depending on how the board falls, to fill in the mid rounds this year and pick up a future pick or two.

    Here are ALL our 25 and under players. That's not a very big list. Half of them are fringe player who could (or should) be upgraded. @captain stone would say should. Emphatically. ;)

    Shaq Mason G 25 4 5 yr$45,000,000 $9,000,000 $23,500,000 2024
    Brandon King FS 25 4 2 yr$2,600,000 $1,300,000 $400,000 2020
    Ted Karras G 25 3 3 yr$1,890,000 $630,000 - 2020
    Jacob Hollister TE 25 2 3 yr$1,675,000 $558,333 $90,000 2020
    Deatrich Wise DE 24 2 4 yr$2,980,560 $745,140 $575,880 2021
    Elandon Roberts OLB 24 3 4 yr$2,440,356 $610,089 $100,356 2020
    Adam Butler DT 24 2 3 yr$1,670,000 $556,667 $20,000 2020
    Keionta Davis DE 24 1 3 yr$1,665,000 $555,000 - 2020
    Obi Melifonwu S 24 2 2 yr$1,380,000 $690,000 $100,000 2020
    Jake Eldrenkamp G 24 1 1 yr$495,000 $495,000 - 2020
    Sony Michel RB 23 4 yr$9,626,695 $2,406,674 $8,389,710 2023
    Duke Dawson CB 23 4 yr$4,744,875 $1,186,219 $2,226,494 2022
    Derek Rivers OLB 23 2 4 yr$3,304,896 $826,224 $802,896 2021
    Braxton Berrios WR 23 4 yr$2,578,408 $644,602 $118,408 2022
    Ryan Izzo TE 23 4 yr$2,529,070 $632,268 $69,070 2022
    J.C. Jackson CB 23 3 yr$1,720,000 $573,333 $10,000 2021
    Isaiah Wynn T 22 4 yr$11,441,903 $2,860,476 $11,441,903 2023
    Ja'whaun Bentley ILB 22 4 yr$2,763,954 $690,989 $303,954 2022
    Christian Sam ILB 22 4 yr$2,641,495 $660,374 $181,495 2022
    Kelon Crossen CB 22 4 yr$2,534,392 $633,598 $74,392 2022



    Just for the fun of it, here are the 26 - 29 year old players. There are some core players, sure, but there are some upgrades to be had. Again, a number of them could be gone next year.

    Rob Gronkowski TE 29 9 6 yr$54,000,000 $9,000,000 $12,920,000 2020
    Nate Ebner FS 29 7 2 yr$5,000,000 $2,500,000 $1,200,000 2020
    James Ferentz C 29 3 2 yr$1,350,000 $675,000 - 2020
    Stephon Gilmore CB 28 7 5 yr$65,000,000 $13,000,000 $40,000,000 2022
    Dont'a Hightower ILB 28 7 4 yr$35,500,000 $8,875,000 $19,000,000 2021
    Dwayne Allen TE 28 7 4 yr$29,400,000 $7,350,000 $16,000,000 2020
    Duron Harmon SS 28 6 4 yr$17,000,000 $4,250,000 $6,500,000 2021
    Lawrence Guy DE 28 8 4 yr$15,300,000 $3,825,000 $4,900,000 2021
    Rex Burkhead RB 28 6 3 yr$9,750,000 $3,250,000 $5,500,000 2021
    Kyle Van Noy ILB 27 5 2 yr$11,757,095 $5,878,548 $5,500,000 2020
    James White RB 26 5 3 yr$12,000,000 $4,000,000 $4,690,000 2021
    David Andrews C 26 4 3 yr$9,000,000 $3,000,000 $1,600,000 2021
    Joe Cardona LS 26 4 4 yr$4,310,000 $1,077,500 $1,000,000 2023
    Joe Thuney G 26 3 4 yr$3,213,428 $803,357 $773,428 2020
    Darren Andrews WR 26 3 yr$1,715,000 $571,667 $5,000 2021
    David Parry DT 26 4 1 yr$720,000 $720,000 - 2020
    Stephen Anderson TE 26 3 1 yr$645,000 $645,000 - 2020
    Ufomba Kamalu DE 26 3 1 yr$630,000 $630,000 - 2020
    Ryker Matthews T 26 1 yr$495,000 $495,000 - 2020


    Our impending free agents: 2019 NFL Free Agents Tracker
     
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  18. BelizePats

    BelizePats Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    I can't argue with your logic Reamer. I envision a significant roster churn this year.
    With expiring contracts, possible retirements and the need for some contract renegotiations that will not likely be welcome, which could lead to a couple of surprise releases, I don't think its a coincidence that we have a lot of draft picks this year. BB is too smart and is committed to planning ahead.
    I would not be surprised to see Detroit's 3rd, rolled in to a 2020 second and I kind of expect one of our seconds to be rolled in to a third and a 4th as I don't think we have a 4th at the moment.

    My initial question was about how far up in the second one of our comp thirds would move us to?

    You have a far better handle on draft talent than I ever could and I'd be good with using most of our 2019 picks as they currently stand. I'm of the belief that this D badly needs an influx of youth and athleticism and the only way to get that is though the draft.
     
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  19. reamer

    reamer Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Sorry, I should have answered your question! Based on the widely circulated draft value charts, the 3rd round comps (if we get them; we should, but I've heard some rumors we may only get 4ths) should be between 100 and 116 points in value, roughly. Our own 2nd is about 270, and the Bears 2nd is around 340. So, packaged with the Bears 2nd, we could jump into the mid 40s.

    To me, the jump from mid 50s to mid 40s isn't compelling enough to give up a 3rd. If anything, I'd expect them to reallocate resources to have more options mid-late rounds.
     
  20. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    I fully expect bb to trade pick number 32 for a second this year and a second next year.

    Chances are, we could potentially have two 3rd round comp picks next year as well. (Offensive tackle brown and de flowers)

    This draft is really deep so bb can make his trade at 32 and then sit tight and pick players. In the fourth round, he could trade back to the fifth round and pick up another 4th next year.
     
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