Punting on The First Round

[jays52]

My thought process is as follows:
1) Meat of the '23 draft is late 1st-3rd
2) '24 is a vastly superior draft class, especially at the top
3) Patriots aren't close to a championship team
4) Poorly run teams may see someone they like
5) Poorly run teams usually yield high draft selections
6) Collecting an additional third provides further movement flexibility to maneuver within the sweet spot between 31 and 50.

Am I an idiot? Can you not delay gratification? What say you.

 

[zimmy]

I don't mind acquiring a 24 1st but you would be an absolute fool to trade your 23 1st straight up. Teams often give up a future first to move up 10-15 spots in the first. In 2021, Miami traded a future 1st to move from 12 to 6. Chicago traded a future 1st to go from 20 to 11 in the same draft. In 2019, NO gave up a future 1st to move from 30 to 14.

Would happily make a similar move this year. We'd need to get a pick in the 20-40 range and a future 1st for me to do it.

 

[jays52]

I don't mind acquiring a 24 1st but you would be an absolute fool to trade your 23 1st straight up. Teams often give up a future first to move up 10-15 spots in the first. In 2021, Miami traded a future 1st to move from 12 to 6. Chicago traded a future 1st to go from 20 to 11 in the same draft. In 2019, NO gave up a future 1st to move from 30 to 14.

Would happily make a similar move this year. We'd need to get a pick in the 20-40 range and a future 1st for me to do it.

Good call. If I recall correctly the value of a future pick is .5(value of that year’s pick). I’m not sure how they determine the hypothetical position of the future 1st which must be the complexity of the transaction. If by some act of God Jalen Carter falls to 14 you’re going to get a king’s ransom for that pick.

 

[DaBruinz]

If a team that had multiple picks next year wanted to trade a 2nd this year and a 1st next year for #14, I'd seriously consider it..

 

[crawhammer]

Belichick is soon to be 71. He's not gearing up for the 2024 draft. Unless he's going through the motions until he passes Shula, he wants to put the team in the best position possible to win over the next 2-3 seasons.

 

[jays52]

Belichick is soon to be 71. He's not gearing up for the 2024 draft. Unless he's going through the motions until he passes Shula, he wants to put the team in the best position possible to win over the next 2-3 seasons.

What do you think would be the catalyst for deviating from his mission statement of acting in the best interest of the football team?

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

If a team that had multiple picks next year wanted to trade a 2nd this year and a 1st next year for #14, I'd seriously consider it..

Something like this, I'd want something back this year.

Idk on one hand we're not a SB contender, yes. That said we'll never get there without some big swings. I go back and forth on it.

Plus the draft can be crazy. Injuries, down years, prospects staying. It's definitely more top heavy but you'd still want to be in that top ten to guarantee one of the top 3 tackles, two WR/DL or a QB if things didn't go great with Mac. We'd have to be top ten bad.

I thought this was the year we go "all in" so to speak but not happening so far.

 

[scott99]

The stupidity of trading out of the 1st round when you have a chance for an excellent prospect at #14, I’ll never understand that. Maybe if we were picking at 28 or lower, but we are at the top half of the first round. Someone excellent is going to be available at #14.

That being said, I have ZERO doubt we won’t be picking at #14. There’s no doubt in my mind that Bill trades down. Not saying it’s a smart move, but I’m pretty sure it’s gonna happen.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

The stupidity of trading out of the 1st round when you have a chance for an excellent prospect at #14, I’ll never understand that. Maybe if we were picking at 28 or lower, but we are at the top half of the first round. Someone excellent is going to be available at #14.

That being said, I have ZERO doubt we won’t be picking at #14. There’s no doubt in my mind that Bill trades down. Not saying it’s a smart move, but I’m pretty sure it’s gonna happen.

Let's hope someone excellent is there at #14. It is not a really strong draft.

 

[Water Boy]

In my opinion this is definitely a draft where a trade down in the early twenties and a trade up in the 30s in the second round is called for.


If Witherspoon, Gonzalez or JSN are there at 14 I consider using the pick.

Otherwise give me Zay Flowers later in the first and Darnel Wright or Dawand Jones with the early second.

Given the depth, I’d take a CB in the 3rd.

 

[Patsgofor4]

My thought process is as follows:
1) Meat of the '23 draft is late 1st-3rd
2) '24 is a vastly superior draft class, especially at the top
3) Patriots aren't close to a championship team
4) Poorly run teams may see someone they like
5) Poorly run teams usually yield high draft selections
6) Collecting an additional third provides further movement flexibility to maneuver within the sweet spot between 31 and 50.

Am I an idiot? Can you not delay gratification? What say you.

This is a silly argument until we see who is available at 14 (at least one top 10 ranked player seems to drop to the mid-teens every year) but no matter who is available, trading out of the first round is bad idea, in my opinion, unless you end up with an extra 2023 high 2nd and another 2023 day 2 pick. Punting this year’s 1st into the 2024? Strong no for me.

They have a low-salaried starting QB for the next two years. They have to determine whether Mac is their longterm guy this year and part of that evaluation process is surrounding him with as much talent as possible. They need to act with urgency to fill the remaining holes in their roster THIS offseason.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

So someone with a draft value chart including trades forward into 24. what would be a good back-of-the-envelope version of what these guys say is "the move," assuming our guy isn't there at 14 and a partner exists?

2023 no. 14

For

2023 no. 23 (?)
+
2024 Xth round pick

What's that, like a 5th or something?

 

[PatsFanInVa]

And my vote is THKAGBIDT

Tee Higgins Killed a Guy But It Didn't Take

 

[Badbisco]

I agree this draft has real strength 25-80, depending on who is there at 14, picking up an extra pick in that range is ideal. I’d rather hypothetically get Darnell Wright/Dawna’s Jones and E Forbes/Julius Brents than just get Broderick Jones. Increasing picks in this range also dramatically reduces risk of outright bust with two chances to hit it. Would probably feel different if we had a top eight pick but difference between 14 and 25 seems relatively small in this draft.

 

[Stu Pidassle]

For 2023 re-building the winning culture is as important as re-building the talent on the field. Deferring a first round pick to next year would send a bad message unless the team got a 2nd this year and a first next year. That is not going to happen for the 14th pick.

 

[stinkypete]

Wait out the board. There's not a ton of guys I see as value at #14, but there's a plausible chance that Skoronski or Witherspoon fall.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

I agree this draft has real strength 25-80, depending on who is there at 14, picking up an extra pick in that range is ideal. I’d rather hypothetically get Darnell Wright/Dawna’s Jones and E Forbes/Julius Brents than just get Broderick Jones. Increasing picks in this range also dramatically reduces risk of outright bust with two chances to hit it. Would probably feel different if we had a top eight pick but difference between 14 and 25 seems relatively small in this draft.

while i agree with your statement, i hope some "blue chip" players are available at 14 because i think the team could use a blue chip player since we have enough depth guys or players who can play on a solid level but not spectacular/high impact or whatever we want to call it.
I believe that we need to focus on difference maker on either side of the ball which would be my approach.
So i would rather go with let's say Lukas van Ness/Bryan Breese/Porter/Witherspoon/ or an LT like Jones, Johnson if they believe those players can achieve their ceiling here. I would also consider use our second rd pick and third rd. pick to try and move up in the draft in the 24-34 range for darnell wright/zay flowers/addison depending on who we selected with our first pick and who is still available.
This would still leave us with 8 picks i believe, which is enough to fill in some depth spots and take shots at a WR/EDGE/DT/C/S/blocking TE and K/P

 

[aluminum seats]

Belichick is soon to be 71. He's not gearing up for the 2024 draft. Unless he's going through the motions until he passes Shula, he wants to put the team in the best position possible to win over the next 2-3 seasons.

I would hope Belichick will do what's best thing for the team, regardless of his age or when he might retire

 

[Sciz]

So someone with a draft value chart including trades forward into 24. what would be a good back-of-the-envelope version of what these guys say is "the move," assuming our guy isn't there at 14 and a partner exists?

2023 no. 14

For

2023 no. 23 (?)
+
2024 Xth round pick

What's that, like a 5th or something?

The value difference is a present second, so you’re not doing it for only a future second. Probably something like 23, present 3rd, and future 2nd.

The Jets did actually trade from 23 to 14 a couple years ago (apparently concerned that the Pats wanted AVT at 15), trading 23, 66, and 86 for 14 and 143. You’d basically be replacing 66 (a high 3rd) with a future 2nd.

It would take the right team and the right player, but there is precedent for getting two firsts for 14. The Saints traded up to 14 for Marcus Davenport in 2018, giving up 27, 147, and a future 1st.

 

[scar3392]

I've seen a few mocks that have Will Levis slipping a bit. If he is there at #14 I would hope BB would listen to some offers if Wash - #16, TB -#19 or Minn - #23 come calling.