Pundits' predictions for pick #32 (was "Pete Prisco")

[manxman2601]

Before we try to read too much into Prisco's prediction, here's a story leading up to the 2018 draft:

In his initial mock draft, Prisco had the Patriots selecting OT Kolton Miller at #31. Then the Cooks trade happened and the Patriots now had #23 and #31. In his revised mock draft, Prisco had the Patriots select Miller at #23, 8 spots earlier than his prior estimate. At #31, he had them drafting DT Taven Bryan from Florida. In his earlier draft, Bryan was selected by Atlanta with the 26th pick. If you were trying to apply logic, you would think the Patriots would take a different player at #23 and still take Miller at #31. There was no explanation why Miller was now worth the 23rd pick or why Atlanta would change their mind on Bryan, allowing him to fall to the Patriots.

The short version is, don't put too much stock in Pete Prisco's draft predictions.

He got the Jamie Collins pick.

 

[luuked]

He chooses Jeffrey Simmons at 32. Then Arizona chooses Dexter Lawrence. I can't see them letting Lawrence go instead of Simmons.

Not sure they would use an early pick for Lawrence with Pennel on the roster. But comes down to how the draft unfolds anyway.

 

[patchick]

I read draft pundits opinions just for the the draft day they were so wrong laughs.

Yep, and the only thing that would be a bigger embarrassment would be looking back at my own predictions.

Despite all of the time we put into studying the Patriots' tendencies, we never know much. For years now I've offered to write a victory ode in honor of anyone who manages to score 3 points in the annual draft board contest, and I've never had to put pen to paper.

 

[YOUGOTMOSSED]

Jeffery Simmons is not a bad pick at all at #32. He may need a year to heal, so what? Typically, Patriots rookies don't have much of an impact anyway.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

I’d be happy with either Simmons or Lawrence at 32 if one’s still available.

 

[mgteich]

Not sure they would use an early pick for Lawrence with Pennel on the roster. But comes down to how the draft unfolds anyway.

Both Brown and Shelton played in over 30% of the 2018 defensive reps. We need 2 replacements. We have Pennell, with Guy and Butler coming back. In effect, we are discussing upgrades to Kamalu.

 

[Froob]

I changed the thread title in hopes of avoiding a separate thread like this for every football writer in America.

What was the original title lol?

 

[SBLIII]

What was the original title lol?

Just Prisco

 

[patchick]

Typically, Patriots rookies don't have much of an impact anyway.

Interesting, that's not my impression at all. Aside from injury issues, haven't most high round picks become starters as rookies? Michel, Thuney, Brown, Solder, Hightower, McCourty, etc?

 

[SHOWTIME15]

I changed the thread title in hopes of avoiding a separate thread like this for every football writer in America.

Not sure why everyone thinks these football writers are experts. Very few of them have played professional football or coached/scouted in the NFL, and yet we continue to give them the microphone.

 

[SBLIII]

Interesting, that's not my impression at all. Aside from injury issues, haven't most high round picks become starters as rookies? Michel, Thuney, Brown, Solder, Hightower, McCourty, etc?

and Thuney was a 3rd rounder. Wouldn't surprise me if we get up to 3 starters from this draft for the 2019 season.

 

[luuked]

Both Brown and Shelton played in over 30% of the 2018 defensive reps. We need 2 replacements. We have Pennell, with Guy and Butler coming back. In effect, we are discussing upgrades to Kamalu.

I agree that we need a second big body. I am just not convinced that using your first round pick on Lawrence is worth it given who is around already.

Of course if he ends up being a pro bowl level player it is a different story but given where we draft odds are he will be another Malcom Brown. Solid player on a reasonable deal but ultimately nothing special.

I'd rather bring Shelton back if possible on a reasonable deal and use that pick for something else. Just conceptually speaking.. of course who knows with the draft being the crapshoot it is where things will go.

 

[YOUGOTMOSSED]

Interesting, that's not my impression at all. Aside from injury issues, haven't most high round picks become starters as rookies? Michel, Thuney, Brown, Solder, Hightower, McCourty, etc?

There are exceptions of course. I assume you mean Malcolm Brown, the DT signed as the 32nd pick in 2015. He was okay but nothing special. Simmons could be a stud but probably not until next year. Since we have a ton of picks, it may make sense to think long term.

 

[patchick]

There are exceptions of course. I assume you mean Malcolm Brown, the DT signed as the 32nd pick in 2015. He was okay but nothing special. Simmons could be a stud but probably not until next year. Since we have a ton of picks, it may make sense to think long term.

But they're really not the the exception--they're the rule. Aside from injuries, how many first-round Pats picks have not played a significant role and started multiple games as rookies? None in the last decade at least.

It's not an argument against drafting Simmons in particular, I'm just skeptical of the notion that missing a year is no big deal because Patriots rookies don't play anyway.

 

[patfanken]

Not sure why everyone thinks these football writers are experts. Very few of them have played professional football or coached/scouted in the NFL, and yet we continue to give them the microphone.

They are just like us, but with a much bigger platforms

 

[borisman]

and Thuney was a 3rd rounder. Wouldn't surprise me if we get up to 3 starters from this draft for the 2019 season.

Yeah, the year our pick was stolen. Could've had Hunter Henry, Sterling Sheppard, Myles Jack, Chris Jones or Michael Thomas with that 32nd pick. Yikes!

 

[SBLIII]

Yeah, the year our pick was stolen. Could've had Hunter Henry, Sterling Sheppard, Myles Jack, Chris Jones or Michael Thomas with that 32nd pick. Yikes!

Imagine Michael Thomas on the Pats!

 

[YOUGOTMOSSED]

But they're really not the the exception--they're the rule. Aside from injuries, how many first-round Pats picks have not played a significant role and started multiple games as rookies? None in the last decade at least.

It's not an argument against drafting Simmons in particular, I'm just skeptical of the notion that missing a year is no big deal because Patriots rookies don't play anyway.

True, if we're limiting it to just 1st round picks, they usually wind up as starters. My point is what's better, an okayish DT rookie that can start right away or a potential blue chip that you may have to wait a year on?

 

[Billb57]

I think Dexter Lawrence could be our replacement for Vince Wilfork. Good against the run and puts good pressure on QB.

 

[SBLIII]

Lance Zierlein has the Patriots selecting Defensive Tackle Jeffrey Simmons, Junior, Mississippi State

Lance Zierlein 2019 NFL mock draft 2.0: Giants reload at WR, QB