Just don't think there's enough bad teams/bad quarterbacks on the schedule. In the last 3 seasons (see what I did there? didn't mention the former qb) they've beaten ONE good quarterback (not sure I'm going to classify the 2021 win over SD as such bc Herbert was in his second year) and that ONE victory was in a hurricane. The list of 2023 opposing quarterbacks - Hurts, Tagavailoa 2x, Rodgers 2x, Prsecott, Jimmy G, Carr, Allen 2x, Daniel Jones, Herbert, Pickett, Mahomes, Russell Wilson...only Sam Howell and whoever starts for Indianapolis would qualify as Belichick win quality over the last 3 years....there are no Sam Darnolds, Sam Ehlingers, Sam Sneads, Sam the Sham and the Pharoahs, or Sam Cassells on the quarterback schedule this season.
Bill the Coach can devise a scheme to hold Carr, Pickett, Wilson, Rodgers (once), Jones, and Jimmy G to around 17-24 points, so maybe the Pats offense, special teams, and defense can coddle together 3 touchdowns and a couple fg in those games.... and Indianapolis and Washington should suck...so I'll say 6-7 wins