Without the crucial data that, by the NFL's admission, does not exist, all we can say is that the Colts' balls were in range on the retest. We don't know that they weren't overinflated (as a hedge in the case of a "sting").
ct, I gotta disagree. Strongly.
You are not prostrating yourself sufficiently before Mother Nature. Careful. She can be a cast-iron ***** if you piss her off with insufficient subservience ...
1) We know that EVERY ball inflated to 12.5 psig @ 75°F WILL show a pressure of 11.0 - 11.2 psig once the air inside has equilibrated to 50°F.
2) We strongly believe that the game balls were basically dry, having sat indoors for at least 24 hours. (I don't believe that the Pats practiced in the rain after 6 pm on Saturday. This would be easy to check.) If confirmed, this means that the leather was basically dry, with a relatively low thermal mass (compared to water soaked leather).
3) We know that it was a cold drizzling rain throughout the first half, which produces an excellent heat sink, quickly drawing the down the temp of the air inside the balls.
3) We know that the balls got soaked, the leather absorbed lots of cold water, thereby adding significantly to the leather's thermal mass.
4) We strongly suspect that the balls were brought inside for their half-time measurement. (More comfortable for the refs, & that's where the pressure gauges were. It's possible that they checked the pressure out on the field, but I doubt it.)
5) We strongly suspect that the exterior of the balls were wiped kinda sorta dry with a towel, once they were brought inside. (It's a natural thing to do when handling the footballs, as I found out in my test. It makes them less slippery & more comfortable to handle.)
6) We know that an external wiping will NOT remove the water from the bulk of the leather. This retains a cold reservoir of water-soaked leather around the internal air bladder, with a significantly higher thermal mass than the dry leather.
7) We know that the only mechanism at work in warming the air inside the bladder is thermal conduction thru the 4 layers (bladder elastomer, vinyl, linen, water-soaked leather) and then conduction & convection to the air in the room.
8) We know that items 2 thru 7 above guarantee that the air inside the balls cooled down rapidly & rewarmed very, very slowly.
9) ALL of the above applies just as much to the Colts' balls as it does to the Pats' balls.
10) I believe that the Colts knew nothing more about football thermodynamics than any football team, player, or reporter prior to this incident, and would have had zero clue how to rig the system to allow their balls to pass a half-time pressure inspection while having the Pats' balls fail.
11) "Overinflated Colts' balls" requires that THEIR balls be switched after inspection. Which is just as dumb as the Pats' balls being switched after inspection. Mr. Occam says "No f'king way, José!"
My conclusions:
i) It is 100% IMPOSSIBLE that the Colts' balls were checked & found to be "within specs". This violates the rules of this universe.
ii) It is 100% IMPOSSIBLE that the Colts' balls were checked, found to be 1.0 to 2.0 psi under pressure (as they would have to have been) & NOT have that information be released.
iii) Due to i) & ii) above, it is impossible that the Colts' balls were inspected at all.
