Predict Our Rookie QB

[maineman209]

My guess is that 3 QBs are gone in the first 3 picks, to CLE, BUF (after trading with the Giants for the #2) and the NYJ.

After that, the only other team between there and the Pats at #23 what seems highly likely to take a QB would be ARZ at #15.

While there are a couple-three other teams in that range that might take a QB, they'd need to make a value judgment that one of the remaining QB prospects represents more value as a potential successor to their current, established starter than a prospect at another position. I think the odds are good that no more than 4 QBs are off the board by the time the Pats pick at #23.

If you can predict who the top-4 are most likely to be, then whoever is left is who the Pats will be selecting from.

For me, based purely on their hype quotient, I'd guess that the first three are Darnold, Rose and Allen (not necessarily in that order), although Mayfield, or even Jackson, could knock Allen out of the first three, I suppose.

So, who might the Pats take out of who's likely to be left? Who would YOU want? Is there one of the top four that you'd be willing to trade up ahead of ARZ at #15 to get?

Trading with GBY at #14 would probably go something like ...

Pats give up #23 & #31
GBY give up #14 + #76 (3rd) + #133 (4th)

This would leave the Pats with 2-2nds, 2-3rds, and a 4th.

 

[zipster9]

No way Patriots take Mayfield or Rosen. This is a guarantee.

 

[mgteich]

First. I'd rather trade 31 + 43 or 23 + 63. I would like to keep the 2 firsts.

But let's deal with the substance.

I don't think that it likely that any of the top four get out of the top 9, certainly not Mayfield. Allan might.

So, with 4 QB's off the board in the top 10, Let's go with your suggestion that another is not chosen by 14. Trading up would give us our choice of QB Jackson, QB Rudolph or LT McClinchey. I could see anything happening. However, Belichick wanting his choice of quarterback here, and the LT at 23 or 31 depending on which was traded. That would leave us drafting a LB or DE in the 2nd. Basically the idea is to use 4 picks on 3 players in positions of great need.

Enough procrastinating! My guess is Rudolph. I know that Wonderlic's aren't everything, but I just can't see us drafting a QB with a Wonderlic of 13. We want him to be able to execute the offense in 2019 if Brady is down for a game or two. That's a tall order.

My guess is that 3 QBs are gone in the first 3 picks, to CLE, BUF (after trading with the Giants for the #2) and the NYJ.

After that, the only other team between there and the Pats at #23 what seems highly likely to take a QB would be ARZ at #15.

While there are a couple-three other teams in that range that might take a QB, they'd need to make a value judgment that one of the remaining QB prospects represents more value as a potential successor to their current, established starter than a prospect at another position. I think the odds are good that no more than 4 QBs are off the board by the time the Pats pick at #23.

If you can predict who the top-4 are most likely to be, then whoever is left is who the Pats will be selecting from.

For me, based purely on their hype quotient, I'd guess that the first three are Darnold, Rose and Allen (not necessarily in that order), although Mayfield, or even Jackson, could knock Allen out of the first three, I suppose.

So, who might the Pats take out of who's likely to be left? Who would YOU want? Is there one of the top four that you'd be willing to trade up ahead of ARZ at #15 to get?

Trading with GBY at #14 would probably go something like ...

Pats give up #23 & #31
GBY give up #14 + #76 (3rd) + #133 (4th)

This would leave the Pats with 2-2nds, 2-3rds, and a 4th.

 

[maineman209]

First. I'd rather trade 31 + 43 or 23 + 63. I would like to keep the 2 firsts.

But let's deal with the substance.

I don't think that it likely that any of the top four get out of the top 9, certainly not Mayfield. Allan might.

So, with 4 QB's off the board in the top 10, Let's go with your suggestion that another is not choose by 14. Trading up would give us our choice of QB Jackson, QB Rudolph or LT McClinchey. I could see anything happening. However, Belichick wanting his choice of quarterback here, and the LT at 23 or 31 depending on which was traded. That would leave us drafting a LB or DE in the 2nd. Basically the idea is to use 4 picks on 3 players in positions of great need.

Enough procrastinating. My guess is Rudolph. I know that Wonderlic's aren't everything, but I just can't see us drafting a QB with a Wonderlic of 13. We want him to be able to execute the offense in 2019 if Brady is down for a game or two. That's a tall order.

Well, currently the Top-9 are ...

#1 CLE - (they have no QB, essentially)
#2 NYG - MANNING (they may want his successor right now, I suppose)
#3 NYJ - (they have no QB, essentially)
#4 CLE ----- (I don't think they'll draft two QBs)
#5 DEN - KEENUM (would they want an upgrade right away?)
#6 IND - LUCK (only if his prognosis is essentially career-ending)
#7 TBY - WINSTON
#8 CHI - TRUBISKY
#9 SFO - GAROPPOLO

I'm just not seeing the certainty that 4 QBs are off the board by #9.

#10 OAK - CARR
#11 MIA - TANNEHILL
#12 BUF - (they have no QB, essentially)
#13 WAS - SMITH
#14 GBY - RODGERS
#15 ARZ - (Bradford seems unlikely to be their envisioned future)

 

[Username]

Logan Woodside

 

[Kontradiction]

Well, currently the Top-9 are ...

#1 CLE - (they have no QB, essentially)
#2 NYG - MANNING (they may want his successor right now, I suppose)
#3 NYJ - (they have no QB, essentially)
#4 CLE ----- (I don't think they'll draft two QBs)
#5 DEN - KEENUM (would they want an upgrade right away?)
#6 IND - LUCK (only if his prognosis is essentially career-ending)
#7 TBY - WINSTON
#8 CHI - TRUBISKY
#9 SFO - GAROPPOLO

I'm just not seeing the certainty that 4 QBs are off the board by #9.

#10 OAK - CARR
#11 MIA - TANNEHILL
#12 BUF - (they have no QB, essentially)
#13 WAS - SMITH
#14 GBY - RODGERS
#15 ARZ - (Bradford seems unlikely to be their envisioned future)

I think the top 3 for sure are going QB. Denver MAY after that depending on how they feel about Keenum in their system (I personally would if I were them). They may also be tempted to take Chubb if Cleveland lands Barkley with one of their picks. That could leave a top QB that the Pats like hovering around 10 or so and that’s when things would get interesting.

 

[oceansizer]

Well, currently the Top-9 are ...

#1 CLE - (they have no QB, essentially)
#2 NYG - MANNING (they may want his successor right now, I suppose)
#3 NYJ - (they have no QB, essentially)
#4 CLE ----- (I don't think they'll draft two QBs)
#5 DEN - KEENUM (would they want an upgrade right away?)
#6 IND - LUCK (only if his prognosis is essentially career-ending)
#7 TBY - WINSTON
#8 CHI - TRUBISKY
#9 SFO - GAROPPOLO

I'm just not seeing the certainty that 4 QBs are off the board by #9.

#10 OAK - CARR
#11 MIA - TANNEHILL
#12 BUF - (they have no QB, essentially)
#13 WAS - SMITH
#14 GBY - RODGERS
#15 ARZ - (Bradford seems unlikely to be their envisioned future)

Elway did not rule out grabbing another qb in the 1st round. Seriously ,I doubt he would do that with such a high pick. Nevertheless taking qb in round 2nd by Denver is very possible. And that move is prior to our pick.It means Rudolph might be off the board till our pick in the 2nd round. BTW - Giants also might take one at the beginning of the 2nd.

 

[mgteich]

Well, currently the Top-9 are ...

#1 CLE - (they have no QB, essentially)
#2 NYG - MANNING (they may want his successor right now, I suppose)
#3 NYJ - (they have no QB, essentially)
#4 CLE ----- (I don't think they'll draft two QBs)
#5 DEN - KEENUM (would they want an upgrade right away?)
#6 IND - LUCK (only if his prognosis is essentially career-ending)
#7 TBY - WINSTON
#8 CHI - TRUBISKY
#9 SFO - GAROPPOLO

I'm just not seeing the certainty that 4 QBs are off the board by #9.

#10 OAK - CARR
#11 MIA - TANNEHILL
#12 BUF - (they have no QB, essentially)
#13 WAS - SMITH
#14 GBY - RODGERS
#15 ARZ - (Bradford seems unlikely to be their envisioned future)

There isn't a certainly, but I wouldn't trade up for Allen at 9 or 10.

#2 GIANTS
The Giants are in a similar situation to the patriots. They have a quarterback who is expected to play for another couple years at top level, but who could player longer. Many are suggesting Chubb, but a QB is quite possible. I could see lots of teams wanting to trade into #2, BUFF, ARIZ, and perhaps MIA.

#4 CLEVELAND
Maybe they're set on Barklay or Chubb. However, a trade down seems right.

#5 DENVER
I think DEN either picks a QB or trades down to someone who wants a QB

#6 - #10
IMHO, anyone who didn't get a franchise QB will trade up here to get one.

BOTTOM LINE
CLE, NYJ, BUF and ARIZ all pick within the top 15 and want quarterbacks. I agree that it is POSSIBLE that one of the quarterbacks could slip to 15 if no one else wants one of the QB's. However, there are several teams with ammunition to draft a QB in the top 10: NYG (perhaps even after a trade down), DEN, and MIA. There may be others like the patriots with no pick in the top 15, but with ammunition to trade up.

So, for me, unless Allan's evaluation goes way down, all 4 are likely to be drafted in the top 10.

The open question is where Jackson and Rudolph get drafted. If the Giants draft a quarterback, at least one of the top 4 may feel pressured to move up. This would mean that at least 5 would be drafted in the top 15, not counting DEN and MIA. I could see all 6 drafted in the top 15, with patriots not being one of them. Of course, this would mean that a non-QB that the patriots didn't think possible might be available earlier than was thought likely.

In an extreme example, if 6 QB's, Chubb and Barklay are in the top 8, we might have the pick of the rest at 9. If "only" 5 quarterbacks are chosen, then we can have the pick of the rest at 8 (including Rudolph). Personally, I expect Rudolph to be available at 15.

 

[Kontradiction]

Elway did not rule out grabbing another qb in the 1st round. Seriously ,I doubt he would do that with such a high pick. Nevertheless taking qb in round 2nd by Denver is very possible. And that move is prior to our pick.It means Rudolph might be off the board till our pick in the 2nd round. BTW - Giants also might take one at the beginning of the 2nd.

If Chubb slides to them, Elway may be very tempted to grab him to get that defense up to snuff and grab a QB day two.

 

[Love The Drake]

If Chubb slides to them, Elway may be very tempted to grab him to get that defense up to snuff and grab a QB day two.

I don't think Chubb gets past Indy

 

[Kontradiction]

I don't think Chubb gets past Indy

Agreed, but Denver may scoop him up before Indy. Especially if the top 3 all go QB (which I think they will) and Cleveland goes with Barkley at 4.

 

[GoBlue]

I can agree with you on Woodside's running but i've watched him look around the field. He did like to run though. I'm not thinking of him as a QB for the Pats though. Another Edlemon type maybe..

 

[mgteich]

If Chubb slides to them, Elway may be very tempted to grab him to get that defense up to snuff and grab a QB day two.

If DEN doesn't want Chubb at 5, there likely will be several teams willing to trade with them to draft Chubb, including IND.

I'll go further, there are 4 top QB's, Barklay and Chubb. DEN is a great position at 5. If they don't want the two remaining, there should be lots of calls. In fact, DEN could be considering those calls now if they are willing to trade down.

 

[Patsgofor4]

#2 GIANTS
The Giants are in a similar situation to the patriots. They have a quarterback who is expected to play for another couple years at top level, but who could play longer.

 

[KDPPatsfan85]

After watching more tape on QBs, I think the best fit is Rudolph.

 

[Love The Drake]

After watching more tape on QBs, I think the best fit is Rudolph.

Id be happy with about 7 of the QBs I trust Bill and Co to select the right one if they do.
I predict the Broncos to take Mayfield.
Id be shocked if we plan to trade up to 2 for Rosen or Allen.
Lauletta seems likeable but the poster who compared him to Peterson great mind fast release but doesnt have a NFL arm to get the ball there without the DB making a play on it scares me.

 

[mgteich]

Id be happy with about 7 of the QBs I trust Bill and Co to select the right one if they do.
I predict the Broncos to take Mayfield.
Id be shocked if we plan to trade up to 2 for Rosen or Allen.
Lauletta seems likeable but the poster who compared him to Peterson great mind fast release but doesnt have a NFL arm to get the ball there without the DB making a play on it scares me.

Perhaps your seven are Darnold, Rosen, Allen, Mayfield, Jackson, Rudolph and Lauretta.

I suspect that many teams have the first 6 they expect to be drafted. The open question is how high teams will need to go to get the last of the six.

I agree with regard to Lauretta.

 

[Love The Drake]

Perhaps your seven are Darnold, Rosen, Allen, Mayfield, Jackson, Rudolph and Lauletta.

I agree with regard to Lauretta.

I have a feeling BB is drafting 2 mid round QBs.
Or one mid and one late.

 

[The Boston Patriot]

It's one that's not listed probably.

 

[Ring 6]

And disappear if you're wrong.

Fnord will never disappear. He may put himself on ignore though.