Post-cuts breakdown: Looking at the AFC

[Deus Irae]

OK, rosters are theoretically set and, unless something strange happens, we're not likely to see earthshattering moves made between now and week one. With that in mind, I figure it's time to take a look at the AFC, slot the teams, and maybe start doing some (hopefully) fair and balanced assessments of the top contenders. With that in mind, I'd like to suggest that the conference appears to break down in the following manner:

Likely top contenders:

Patriots
Texans
Broncos
Ravens



Likely 2nd tier teams:

Bengals
Colts
Steelers (I could see them as a top contender, too, if their kids develop and the team's health is good)



Wannabes with potential to shock:
Dolphins
Chiefs
Titans (very little potential, IMO, but a little)
Chargers (about the same as the Tits, but with better QB play



Dregs:

Bills
Jets
Browns
Jaguars
Raiders


Ok, have at it...

 

[jah]

Bills (their defense seems to have improved a lot with Pettine) and Browns (Chudzinski's system is better for Weeden) could surprise too.

 

[AzPatsFan]

It will be a Tong war in the AFCN this season. I think however the Bengals will rule the Division. The Ravens will be on their tails but they need some time to re-organize themselves and that will costa couple of unexpected losses. Second place won't win enough to even make a wildcard due to the fierce intra-division fighting.

Another reason is that the Bengals have compiled very good records against their divisional foes only to lose painful out of division games. That ends this season. The Bengals are just too loaded.

 

[Sciz]

Looks about right. The only change I would make is knocking the Steelers down one notch, with their average outcome being in the wannabee category and their ceiling in the second tier. I just have too many questions about too many parts of their team compared to even last season, when they weren't that good.

 

[jmt57]

I might consider either switching the Bengals and Ravens, or at least expand Tier One to include them. They do have some talent on defense.

 

[Ozymandias]

In terms of national media prognostication

Underrated:
Browns
Chiefs
Bills
Steelers

Overrated:
Texans
Broncos
Dolphins
Colts

Best of the best:
Patriots
Ravens

Worst of the worse:
Raiders
Jets
Jaguars

 

[ATippett56]

Playoff Contenders
Patriots
Broncos
Texans
Bengals
Ravens
Steelers

Overrated
Colts
Dolphins

Underrated
Chiefs

Bottom Feeders
Bills
Browns
Chargers
Jaguars
Jets
Raiders
Titans

 

[Gwedd]

Deus:

I agree with all except for the Steelers. I'd swap places between the Steelers and Chiefs. People can smirk, but if there's another coach out there besides Belichick that can motivate a team, it's Andy Reid. He's had some pretty consistent success in his career, and I'd be loath to discount the effect his signing might have on the Chiefs, regardless of the level of their players.

The Steelers have too many issues right now, more so than New England had last year. Too many new faces trying to learn a system, and Lord only knows how many hits Roethlisberger has left before his body refuses to let him get up again. Last fall, his eyes looked like those of a beaten old man, and his smiling facade couldn't hide that. Even with a full offseason, I'm not sure he has that much left in the tank consider the division he plays in.

I could well be wrong, but as of right now, that's how I see it.

As to anything else, I'd be remiss if I didn't say that I would NOT be surprised at all to see the Bengals beat out the Ravens too. There's another team that, while not as badly gutted as the Steelers, may well have a number of problems this year too. I think that their opening game against Denver will be very telling as to how they'll be this year.

 

[Marqui]

I would switch the Steelers with the Chiefs. Then switch the Bills and the Browns with the Chargers and Titans.

 

[Deus Irae]

Just a note:

If you look at the Steelers pattern since 2000, it's been 1 year missing the playoffs followed by 2 years making the playoffs. They missed last year, so they're due to make the playoffs this year and next if the pattern continues.

 

[Nikolai]

Just a note:

If you look at the Steelers pattern since 2000, it's been 1 year missing the playoffs followed by 2 years making the playoffs. They missed last year, so they're due to make the playoffs this year and next if the pattern continues.

I actually think they're headed for one of those rare 3-year droughts. I just don't see how they can top the Bengals or Ravens, which puts them out of the wild card running as well, given what we should expect out of the Colts and possibly the Chiefs.

 

[fnordcircle]

The reports out about the Steelers is that their young WR corps is looking pretty good. They'll have a solid defense as well and if he stays healthy Big Ben can produce (as long as it isn't the SB)

Honestly, until the Bengals prove more to me my money's going to be on the Steelers if it comes down to a battle for a wildcard between the two, last year notwithstanding.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Just a note:

If you look at the Steelers pattern since 2000, it's been 1 year missing the playoffs followed by 2 years making the playoffs. They missed last year, so they're due to make the playoffs this year and next if the pattern continues.

What's different now is that seemingly the Bengals have finally improved with a strong young D as a cornerstone contending for the #2 spot in their conference. If the Squealers have success with their young WR corps and Rthlsbrgr isn't beaten up, they'll be in the fight for a WC spot. I think they'll miss out.

 

[jmt57]

Jets have signed QB Brady Quinn and released former Packer QB Graham Harrell