Pats Went 1-4 to End Season. What Was The Cause of Implosion?

[Toofy]

It sounds like a conspiracy theory, but did HT and McCourty play soft to avoid getting injuries .. probably HT is retiring and just collect pay day.

Maybe that's the tension Slater was alluding to. Now everyone talks about mentally not there and not elevating. AP and Meyers both said this . I just feel it's a veiled jab at the veterans playing below par.

So if it's a planned sabotage there is not much we can do....

 

[lancerman]

Injuries. Injuries, that was the biggest factor.

Christian McCaffrey had a bad hamstring that he just barely recovered in time for that Panthers game, and he had a limited snap count. Sam Darnold had a shoulder injury that sidelined him for the next month. Gilmore was rusty as well.

The falcons didnt have Cordarelle Patterson or Calvin Ridley.

Browns missed Nick Chubb and ODB - and Baker (with his own shoulder injury) is a QB who NEEDS everything perfect around him to play well.

And Titans missed Derrick Henry and AJ Brown.

I hate how many Patriots fans willingly ignored this, then got surprised we struggled down the stretch (when we played good teams that were HEALTHY), and then played damage control with "hey guys, we were rebuilding anyways" like as if we didn't spend $100m in free agency and collapsed a number 1 seed playoff spot.

Notice how it goes back to 2019 - when the Pats offense was garbage.

It goes to show you that the Patriots defenses have been a product of our offense for awhile now. They can't really carry the team to wins by themselves. They don't ever really confuse good QBs at all anymore.


This is what makes the Bills game so devastating. It basically confirmed that this Patriots team was truly a 7-8 win team that should have missed out. It basically exposed the team.

Will we get those same injury breaks again? And even if we do, what'll happen if Baltimore is healthy next year (we forget that they were 8-3 at one point despite having a decimated running backs group, which is important to their offense)? What if the Browns are healthy? What if WE get injury bugs next year?

Our whole defense needs to be revamped, AND we need to get a real number 1 receiver. Do we have the draft wherewithal and cap space to achieve this?

Exactly. Anybody can beat a team that has the core pieces that are foundational to the team identity out and injured. We beat teams that had serious handcuffs on them or outright bad teams and out of optimism people just ignored context and pretended we were world beaters for a stretch. I saw it a mile away. The Colts were going to crush us and the Bills are just flat better in a straight up contests

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

Take it for what it is worth, but according to Greg Bedard, his sources say after the bye there was a disconnect between the players and coaching staff and the players stopped to buy into the defensive strategy. His take on the information he got is that Bill took over the game after the Cowboys' loss and after the bye he gave the defense back to Steve and Mayo.

That makes more sense than the mirage crap people are saying. During the seven game win streak the defensive was aggressive they were more of an attacking defense. After the bye, the defense turned into mostly a soft defense with players playing off the line and giving up the short and intermediate stuff.

If this is true it would look bad on BB, real bad imo, because I mean i would be ok with giving the defense „back“ to mayo and steve after the bye but BB saw in the games after the bye week it does not get better . He should have interfered than again because it just did not work. He should have taken over again if this is true

 

[DropKickFlutie]

If this is true it would look bad on BB, real bad imo, because I mean i would be ok with giving the defense „back“ to mayo and steve after the bye but BB saw in the games after the bye week it does not get better . He should have interfered than again because it just did not work. He should have taken over again if this is true

It's really interesting deflection because the defense has been key to the Patriot wins this season while the real failures this year and going back since 2019 have been on the offensive staff. This offense only scores 18ppg when you take out blowouts against the worst 3 teams in the league

 

[jmt57]

The 1991 Browns were 6-7 and in the playoff hunt but lost their final three games.

The 1992 Browns were 7-6 and were in playoff track but lost their final three games.

The 1993 Browns were 6-6 and in the playoff hunt but lost three of their last four games.

The 1995 Browns, coming off that playoff season, were 4-4 before collapsing with a 1-7 finish, which most people write off to the team‘s imminent relocation.

The myth that Belichick teams always get get better late in the season is rooted in two things: Tom Brady (weird, huh…the Bucs are 12-1 after Thanksgiving), and the cake schedule to end the 2008 season, where the last four games were against teams that were a combined 25-39, with three of those games at home (and yes, I’m aware the Cardinals went on a Cinderella run to make the SB.)

I’m not crapping on Belichick, though I’ve learned you can’t state facts here because there are too many crybabies. What I like to do is point out that many of the perceived advantages aren’t actually there and are simply confirmation bias. With Brady, Belichick won at a .750 clip. So many of the winning trends are explained by regular dominance and expected winning pct rather than by some other 5D chess factors. This includes:

• Belichick teams have a built-in advantage after a bye week.
• Belichick teams don’t get blown out because they’re so well prepared.
• Belichick does better than expected against rookie QBs.

Again, when you combine a .750 win pct with these other factors, the results make sense. For example, winning at .750 against all teams, means you’ll be winning at a really, really high rate against rookie QBs who have a conglomerate winning pct. of .350 to .400. The teams don’t get blown out much because they’re dominant. They win a lot after the bye week because they flat out win a lot.

Without Brady, you can see that when Bill has had non-elite teams, all of these splits tend to be right on the bell curve.

But what those stats omit is that Belichick is also 31-12 in the postseason. If the hypothesis of his being prone to late season failures were true, that number would be reversed. Similarly having a bye week would be irrelevant.

There's more to it.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

But what those stats omit is that Belichick is also 31-12 in the postseason. If the hypothesis of his being prone to late season failures were true, that number would be reversed. Similarly having a bye week would be irrelevant.

There's more to it.

I don't think he was prone to late season failures with the Brady and the dynasty teams. That would be crazy...they were deep into the playoffs every year. It's more that if the team isn't a clear championship contender, they don't always get better. In fact, history shows they tend to regress in a big way.

I've been avoiding these discussions for awhile because I don't want to divide it into a pre-Brady, post-Brady type of split for Belichick, but you look at the splits and they're pretty extreme. Almost every season without Brady, his teams have fallen apart down the stretch. But this is where it always turns negative, so I'll just leave it at that.

 

[jdlboot14]

Take it for what it is worth, but according to Greg Bedard, his sources say after the bye there was a disconnect between the players and coaching staff and the players stopped to buy into the defensive strategy. His take on the information he got is that Bill took over the game after the Cowboys' loss and after the bye he gave the defense back to Steve and Mayo.

That makes more sense than the mirage crap people are saying. During the seven game win streak the defensive was aggressive they were more of an attacking defense. After the bye, the defense turned into mostly a soft defense with players playing off the line and giving up the short and intermediate stuff.

this does help make sense of what could have happened. a void of true defensive leadership could have devolved into what we saw. bottom line, this ambiguous unnamed DC stuff never worked well - unless it's BB himself who is DC. I say picking Mayo outright or a guy like Josh Boyer or Matty P will help solidify things. Steve Jr. isn't ready.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

this does help make sense of what could have happened. a void of true defensive leadership could have devolved into what we saw. bottom line, this ambiguous unnamed DC stuff never worked well - unless it's BB himself who is DC. I say picking Mayo outright or a guy like Josh Boyer or Matty P will help solidify things. Steve Jr. isn't ready.

pats were 2nd in points against and best in scoring defense. Seems like Steve did a good job? Especially with garbage players in Godchaux, Bentley, and SloJuan

 

[DropKickFlutie]

I don't think he was prone to late season failures with the Brady and the dynasty teams. That would be crazy...they were deep into the playoffs every year. It's more that if the team isn't a clear championship contender, they don't always get better. In fact, history shows they tend to regress in a big way.

I've been avoiding these discussions for awhile because I don't want to divide it into a pre-Brady, post-Brady type of split for Belichick, but you look at the splits and they're pretty extreme. Almost every season without Brady, his teams have fallen apart down the stretch. But this is where it always turns negative, so I'll just leave it at that.

Even with Brady the team nose dived after October 2019. The coaching staff around BB is rotten. and TB12 was ready to leave second half of 2019

 

[JackBauer]

Steve is doing a good job. The weak link is the offense loaded on talent but keeps under performing. The Pats D has to play perfect to carry the mediocre Pats OC.

“loaded on talent”

 

[DropKickFlutie]

“loaded on talent”

You're telling me after blowing $200M in contracts that the offense is still deficient in talent? Would be embarrassing if so. Would it perhaps be self-inflicted like benching their best OLineman Onwenu for 9 weeks, or having zero clue how to even scheme pass attempts to Jonnu Smith?

Yes the offense is loaded on talent and under-performed due to mediocre offensive coaching.

The defense had major flaws with crappy players yet played great for most of the year via smoke and mirrors. Crappy players include Godchaux, Bentley, and SloJuan

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Curran and Perry: Team Needs to Tweak the Coaching Staff. (I agree. Particularly the OC and OLine coach and TE coach).

""First step for me, keep tweaking the staff," Curran said. "The Patriots tweaked their personnel group last year in the wake of Nick Caserio's departure. They got four guys collaborating, and you got a good yield in free agency and a good yield in the draft. Now, do it with the coaches."

New England Patriots – NBC Sports Boston

Find the latest New England Patriots news, highlights, analysis and more with NBC Sports Boston.

www.nbcsports.com

 

[TheRainMaker]

Yes the offense is loaded on talent and under-performed due to mediocre offensive coaching.

No way they are loaded. Not one guy on offense keeps DC's up at night. Once a good team stops the Pats running attack, they are dead to rights. The only good team they beat not able to consistently run the ball and pass their way to a win was bizarrely the #1 seed Titans.

I'd so the O-line is okay.
RB's are good.
WR's are very mediocre.
TE's are okay, but are Hall of Famers compared to what the Pats had in 2019 and 2020.

I don't see the loaded talent you see.

Curran and Perry: Team Needs to Tweak the Coaching Staff. (I agree. Particularly the OC and OLine coach and TE coach).

""First step for me, keep tweaking the staff," Curran said. "The Patriots tweaked their personnel group last year in the wake of Nick Caserio's departure. They got four guys collaborating, and you got a good yield in free agency and a good yield in the draft. Now, do it with the coaches."

New England Patriots – NBC Sports Boston

Find the latest New England Patriots news, highlights, analysis and more with NBC Sports Boston.

www.nbcsports.com

It would've been nice if he elaborated more on that.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

No way they are loaded. Not one guy on offense keeps DC's up at night. Once a good team stops the Pats running attack, they are dead to rights. The only good team they beat not able to consistently run the ball and pass their way to a win was bizarrely the #1 seed Titans.

I'd so the O-line is okay.
RB's are good.
WR's are very mediocre.
TE's are okay, but are Hall of Famers compared to what the Pats had in 2019 and 2020.

I don't see the loaded talent you see.

It would've been nice if he elaborated more on that.

I will agree that no DC stays up at night preparing for the checkers-playing, stale, predictable Patriot offensive coordinator.

Probably laughing their arses off holding the Pats to 3 points last game until the 4th quarter.

.

 

[TheRainMaker]

I will agree that no DC stays up at night preparing for the checkers-playing, stale, predictable Patriot offensive coordinator.

Probably laughing their arses off holding the Pats to 3 points last game until the 4th quarter.

.

Who would you like at OC?

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Who would you like at OC?

...anyone else. But would see if O'Brien or O'Shea were interested

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Exactly. Anybody can beat a team that has the core pieces that are foundational to the team identity out and injured. We beat teams that had serious handcuffs on them or outright bad teams and out of optimism people just ignored context and pretended we were world beaters for a stretch. I saw it a mile away. The Colts were going to crush us and the Bills are just flat better in a straight up contests

Will their record next year be worse ?

 

[lancerman]

Will their record next year be worse ?

Honestly it could range. Bill's usually going to have his team ready to pick off the bad teams and we will get a few of those. I hope we can get to a point where we can beat some of the bubble contenders and actually hang with the contenders. But a lot of this year was that we got a lot of luck. Put it this way, if this were even the 2019 team with Brady and some okayish WR's we probably get the 1 seed easily

 

[StrawHatPatriot]

pats were 2nd in points against and best in scoring defense. Seems like Steve did a good job? Especially with garbage players in Godchaux, Bentley, and SloJuan

I thought we recognized that scoring defense isn't a good metric? These last 4 weeks of Patriots football exposed why scoring defense isn't a good way to judge defense and that the Pats defense isn't that good.

We havent had a truely elite defense since the mid 2000s. The last 10-14 years our defense has been bend-don't-break, and relying on other teams imploding when a) they are trying to keep up with Brady, or b) when there's too much pressure.

Notice how the past two years, we've had a lot of games where the defense would either start of okay but fade down the stretch, or start bad and fail to make a key stop at the end.

The defense tried, but wasn't great.

You're telling me after blowing $200M in contracts that the offense is still deficient in talent? Would be embarrassing if so. Would it perhaps be self-inflicted like benching their best OLineman Onwenu for 9 weeks, or having zero clue how to even throw pass attempts to Jonnu Smith?

Yes the offense is loaded on talent and under-performed due to mediocre offensive coaching.

The defense had major flaws with crappy players yet played great for most of the year via smoke and mirrors. Crappy players include Godchaux, Bentley, and SloJuan

The offensive cast is good if you have a guy like Brady, Rodgers, etc. But it could be better.

 

[StrawHatPatriot]

Will their record next year be worse ?

I feel like it will.

I was cycling through the NFL playoffs the last 10-15 years, and I found that teams that get blown out (lose by 3 possessions) often don't make it back the next year.

The few ones that did make it back - like the 2013-2014 Colts - didn't make it back afterwards. (The 2014 colts had a lucky run to the AFCCG - Cincinnati's key players were injured and Peyton's decline started.)

What this seems to imply is that usually, if you get the brakes beaten off of you in the playoffs, it means that your team as constructed is heavily flawed, not good, and easily exploited, and was lucky to make the playoffs in the first place. Or it means that it was the end of the road for a championship window (think of the 2016 Packers, that was the end of that 2010 Super Bowl window). It means you should probably blow up or shake up the team.

For starters, our front 7 is mush. Our run defense sucks - to where a team like Buffalo can run on us (even though Buffalo did improve the last few weeks, they were not a good running team).

Our offense is cute, but it's not explosive at all. We have a good running game, but when teams really want to stop our rushing attack, they can with ease. Our passing attack is limited - no complex route trees, passing concepts, etc. Why? Our receivers aren't great, and Mac has limitations (for instance, have we seen him throw a 30 yard bullet pass on a post pattern route, in stride, with enough velocity to beat the coverage? No? That's because Mac's arm strength is not great enough to constantly make those throws, and our receivers don't have the crisp route running and speed to do so).

The locker room splintered after the bye week. Was it a Steve Belichick thing if the rumors were true?

Lastly, our special teams was ass. Matthew Slater is 36, and had more errors this year.


To conclude (sorry for the long post), I feel like we'll be 8-9 next year and miss out. There's too many holes to fill and fix (espeically if some guys retire), our cap space is not a lot, and Bill rarely has a great draft 2 years in a row.

We had a lot of "if this or that happened" losses this year, but that happens when you're not a good team. And we got breaks this year that may not be there next year.