Pats Should Keep Garoppolo Through 2017

[IllegalContact]

It'll resolve soon enough. Once Brady is back to playing and dominating, people will forget the issue. We will need to revisit it in the offseason.

What issue?

 

[Miguel]

Brady's DOB=8/3/1977
Jimmy Garoppolo=11/2/1991
Jacoby Brissett=12/11/1992

Franchise tag for QBs in 2016 was $19.953 million.
Likely franchise tag for QBs in 2018 is over $22 million.
In order to tag Jimmy G in 2018 the Patriots must first tag him which means
1.) his 2018 cap number at the start of the 2018 League Year will be $22 million.
2.) the franchise tag can't be used on Malcolm Butler or any other Patriot in 2018.

Brady's 2017 cap number = $14M including his 1 million salary. If traded before 6/2/2017 it would increase to $27 million. If traded in 2017 but after 6/1/2017 his 2017 dead money would be $13 million and his 2018 dead money would be $14 million.

Brady's 2018 cap number = $22M. If cut or traded before 6/2/2018 it would decrease to $14 million.
If traded in 2018 but after 6/1/2018 his 2018 dead money would be $7 million and his 2019 dead money would be $7 million.

Brady's 2019 cap number = $22M. If cut or traded anytime in 2019 it would decrease to $7 million.

The Browns are not the only team in the NFL in need of a quarterback that can help them win a Super Bowl. It is a false choice to contend that Jimmy G's only options to start are the Pats and the Browns.

Jimmy Garoppolo's 2017 cap number is $1,098,513 which consists of
$820,077 salary
$65,000 offseason workout bonus
$213,436 signing bonus proration (if traded this will remain on the Patriots cap)

Starting on January 2,2017 Jimmy G's rookie deal can be extended or restructured. Any extension or restructure will NOT impact the 2016 salary cap.

Unsure why Jimmy G would agree to one-year 10M deal in 2018 when if tagged he is fully guaranteed $22M.

Brock Osweiler received $37M fully guaranteed (18M APY)
Andrew Luck received $47M fully guaranteed. (24.5 APY)

With the cap increasing 8% a year let's split the difference and project a $42M fully guaranteed deal (22M APY) in 2018 for Jimmy G. One way to do that is to have small 2018 signing bonus and a large 2019 option bonus. Downside of doing so is that Jimmy G's cap numbers for the rest of the deal are in the 20M range.

Edited at 9:57 AM to add
Not sure why Brady would agree to be a backup in 2018/2019 when he can start elsewhere and earn $15 million in cash each year

 

[long distance]

Thanks Miguel for answering the call ..

 

[varjao]

I think the only way Brady plays for another team is for the 49ers to live his childhood's dream, if and only if they put a nice team together which seems unlikely in less than 2 years.

 

[PatriotsPimp136]

Brady has two years left in my mind. Idk how great he will play at 41. Apparently some people here think tommy will find the fountain of youth. I say keep jimmy. I really feel he can be our next starting QB. I think tommy might retire if he wins number 5.

 

[aluminum seats]

Brady's DOB=8/3/1977
Jimmy Garoppolo=11/2/1991
Jacoby Brissett=12/11/1992

Franchise tag for QBs in 2016 was $19.953 million.
Likely franchise tag for QBs in 2018 is over $22 million.
In order to tag Jimmy G in 2018 the Patriots must first tag him which means
1.) his 2018 cap number at the start of the 2018 League Year will be $22 million.
2.) the franchise tag can't be used on Malcolm Butler or any other Patriot in 2018.

Brady's 2017 cap number = $14M including his 1 million salary. If traded before 6/2/2017 it would increase to $27 million. If traded in 2017 but after 6/1/2017 his 2017 dead money would be $13 million and his 2018 dead money would be $14 million.

Brady's 2018 cap number = $22M. If cut or traded before 6/2/2018 it would decrease to $14 million.
If traded in 2018 but after 6/1/2018 his 2018 dead money would be $7 million and his 2019 dead money would be $7 million.

Brady's 2019 cap number = $22M. If cut or traded anytime in 2019 it would decrease to $7 million.

The Browns are not the only team in the NFL in need of a quarterback that can help them win a Super Bowl. It is a false choice to contend that Jimmy G's only options to start are the Pats and the Browns.

Jimmy Garoppolo's 2017 cap number is $1,098,513 which consists of
$820,077 salary
$65,000 offseason workout bonus
$213,436 signing bonus proration (if traded this will remain on the Patriots cap)

Starting on January 2,2017 Jimmy G's rookie deal can be extended or restructured. Any extension or restructure will NOT impact the 2016 salary cap.

Unsure why Jimmy G would agree to one-year 10M deal in 2018 when if tagged he is fully guaranteed $22M.

Brock Osweiler received $37M fully guaranteed (18M APY)
Andrew Luck received $47M fully guaranteed. (24.5 APY)

With the cap increasing 8% a year let's split the difference and project a $42M fully guaranteed deal (22M APY) in 2018 for Jimmy G. One way to do that is to have small 2018 signing bonus and a large 2019 option bonus. Downside of doing so is that Jimmy G's cap numbers for the rest of the deal are in the 20M range.

Edited at 9:57 AM to add
Not sure why Brady would agree to be a backup in 2018/2019 when he can start elsewhere and earn $15 million in cash each year

Now that is the definition of a useful post.

Maybe we should change the "useful" rating to "Miguel."

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

I think the only way Brady plays for another team is for the 49ers to live his childhood's dream, if and only if they put a nice team together which seems unlikely in less than 2 years.

This is true ^^^^

 

[Mack Herron]

I do not see in Miguel's post that there is no reasonable way to keep both (that is, to extend JAG offering $40M guaranteed while Brady plays out his contract). If this is wrong, I would appreciate a clear explanation.

 

[fnordcircle]

You people predicting Brady being done in 2 years...good luck with that. I bet you've been predicting Brandon Bolden getting cut 4 years in a row now. I dunno why some of you are so excited to bet against Tom.

I'm not 100% convinced Brady will retire before Brissett's contract is up, let alone Jimmy.

Sorry everyone, I think we're stuck with Brady for a while.

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

You people predicting Brady being done in 2 years...good luck with that. I bet you've been predicting Brandon Bolden getting cut 4 years in a row now. I dunno why some of you are so excited to bet against Tom.

I'm not 100% convinced Brady will retire before Brissett's contract is up, let alone Jimmy.

Sorry everyone, I think we're stuck with Brady for a while.

We would probably need to trade Brady before he starts showing serious decline, especially if you are hoping to fetch something in return

...not that I want to do that, but that's the choice facing our team

Personally, I think he's capable of winning us at least 1 more Super Bowl. It's just a question of remaining in contention for the next 10 years, instead of the next 2 or 3 (depending how you look at)

 

[dafoe2016]

Outside of the cap issue this is a no brainer. If Bill honestly feels like Jimmy can be a solid to above average QB for the next 10-15 years Brady has to go after next year. You don't trade a couple of years of potentially great QB play for well over a decade of very good QB play. One needs to look no further than the last two decades in the AFC East if you want to understand how difficult it is to find a good QB.

I appreciate everything that Brady has done here, but that doesn't afford him some sort of special protection. Bill has to do what's best for the team. That's what he's done since he got here. Troy Brown is the only guy I can think of who may have gotten an extra year out of Bill. And that was a completely different circumstance. He cannot start making decisions based on emotion. If he trades Garoppolo it has to be because he doesn't think the Arizona and Miami games were a good indicator of his talent level. It can't be because of some weird sense of loyalty to a 40 year old QB who wants to play for 5 more years. That's how loser organizations are run. Bill has to do what he has always done: think long term.

 

[Bradyking12]

Outside of the cap issue this is a no brainer. If Bill honestly feels like Jimmy can be a solid to above average QB for the next 10-15 years Brady has to go after next year. You don't trade a couple of years of potentially great QB play for well over a decade of very good QB play. One needs to look no further than the last two decades in the AFC East if you want to understand how difficult it is to find a good QB.

I appreciate everything that Brady has done here, but that doesn't afford him some sort of special protection. Bill has to do what's best for the team. That's what he's done since he got here. Troy Brown is the only guy I can think of who may have gotten an extra year out of Bill. And that was a completely different circumstance. He cannot start making decisions based on emotion. If he trades Garoppolo it has to be because he doesn't think the Arizona and Miami games were a good indicator of his talent level. It can't be because of some weird sense of loyalty to a 40 year old QB who wants to play for 5 more years. That's how loser organizations are run. Bill has to do what he has always done: think long term.

Yea imagine if the Packers would of kept Favre and traded Rogers due to history with the team (16 Seasons/Fan loyalty) then 2-3yrs later he retires and imagine where the Packers would be at meanwhile Rogers is lighting it up on another team and no i'm not comparing JG to Rogers. Something like that has to be given a thought. As a fan i prefer long term success then short term, i prefer our marathon continues rather than it come to an end in a few years.

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

Outside of the cap issue this is a no brainer. If Bill honestly feels like Jimmy can be a solid to above average QB for the next 10-15 years Brady has to go after next year. You don't trade a couple of years of potentially great QB play for well over a decade of very good QB play. One needs to look no further than the last two decades in the AFC East if you want to understand how difficult it is to find a good QB.

I appreciate everything that Brady has done here, but that doesn't afford him some sort of special protection. Bill has to do what's best for the team. That's what he's done since he got here. Troy Brown is the only guy I can think of who may have gotten an extra year out of Bill. And that was a completely different circumstance. He cannot start making decisions based on emotion. If he trades Garoppolo it has to be because he doesn't think the Arizona and Miami games were a good indicator of his talent level. It can't be because of some weird sense of loyalty to a 40 year old QB who wants to play for 5 more years. That's how loser organizations are run. Bill has to do what he has always done: think long term.

I agree 100%...but with Brady, you have a much greater chance of winning another Super Bowl over the next 2 years. Granted, it's a far smaller window of time, but you know Brady's guaranteed to deliver elite quarterback play, especially in big games.

Not to mention, you need a QB who can take advantage of the roster we have, before key player play out their contract.

 

[Deus Irae]

You don't trade a couple of years of potentially great QB play for well over a decade of very good QB play.

Of course you do, if you're in a position to otherwise challenge for the title. You make that move every time.

 

[Bradyking12]

Of course you do, if you're in a position to otherwise challenge for the title. You make that move every time.

And then once those few years are up the era of struggling begins??? then what

 

[oldrover]

Is Polo a thing?

"Marco!"

 

[dafoe2016]

"Brady's guaranteed to deliver elite quarterback play, especially in big games."

Is he really? What he did against Seattle was legendary. Vintage Tom Brady. But his playoff track record from 2005-2013 was spotty. I wouldn't quite put him in that David Ortiz clutch category. He will be 40 next August. Are we 100% positive that he has 2 more years of elite play in him? His deep ball has been one of the worst in the league for years now. He's going to lose a step or three eventually. Who says it's not in 2017? Or even this year? Maybe it's not for another four years. Look at Manning. You could make the argument that he was the worst starting QB in the league last year. At Brady's age the end could come at any moment.

But regardless, I don't think you can trade 2 years of greatness for 10-15 years of solid play. Even if you could guarantee me 2 more elite years of Brady I would still go with Jimmy. Assuming Bill is as high on him as fans are. Granted Bill is drafting backups in the later rounds, but his list of drafted QBs not named Brady or Garoppolo is not great. Are we sure he will be any better picking in round one? Look at the complete inability to draft an above average WR. We can't count on finding another stud in the draft without bottoming out. Even then it's a crapshoot. Think the Browns might be able to use Carson Wentz right about now?

None of this is meant to bash Brady. He is one of the best QBs of all time. Arguably the best. I appreciate everything he has done here and I can't think of anyone I would rather have start for me if I needed to win one game. But again, this is about the long term. I want to see this run continue more than I want to feel all warm and fuzzy about Brady retiring in a Pats uniform. The man is running around in a Yankees hat. Do you really think he's one of us? He's going to retire eventually and return to California and eventually run for political office. Boston will be in his rear view mirror. He's just a guy who plays QB for my team, not my mother. I will get over seeing him in a 49ers uniform for a couple of years if it means being competitive for another decade plus.


In a perfect world my favorite Patriots of all time (Curtis Martin) would have retired here. But sports, like life, are messy. Bill's job is to keep this dynasty going for as long as possible.

 

[Deus Irae]

And then once those few years are up the era of struggling begins??? then what

You get that there's a difference between average/good/very good play, and elite play, right? Elite QBs win titles, and the Favre example cited doesn't really prove what was intended. It really proves the opposite.

1. Green Bay was 13-3 in Favre's last year there, and got to the AFCCG. The next year, it was 6-10.
   
2. The Jets, coming off of a 4-12 season, were 8-3, and on the way to, perhaps, dethroning the Patriots in the AFCE, before Favre got hurt
   
3. The Vikings got to the NFCCG before falling and, had Favre's foot/ankle not gotten hurt on a very questionable play, the Vikings probably get a first down at the end of regulation play, with Favre running for that first, and the Vikings are probably lining up for a potentially game winning FG that could have sent them to the SB.

So, in a 3 year span, having that top shelf QB put two different teams in the NFCCG, and had a 3rd team rolling in its division before injury struck. Meanwhile, as great as he may be, Aaron Rodgers has just the one SB win and appearance, which is something that Favre would certainly have had the chance to equal, in his last 3 seasons, had they been in Green Bay.

Yeah, you take that elite QB over the clearly lesser QB, every damned time. History's pretty clear on the importance of elite QB winners, and Brady is the best there's ever been, and he's still arguably the best QB in the NFL. You don't kick him to the side for "average", "good", or "very good".

 

[Edelmania]

I would trade him for no less than 2 mid first rounders. Otherwise keep him and make sure you get a deal done. Worst thing would be to let him walk away in free agency. If that happens you lose a lot of value.

 

[Deus Irae]

Tom Brady has been the Patriots starter for 14 seasons. During that stretch, the Patriots have been to the AFCCG 10 times, and to the Super Bowl 6 times, and they've won the SB 4 times.

But I'm sure that any "average", "good", or "very good" QB could do that. It probably happens all the time. Really, BB should just trade Tom today. After all, JAG didn't **** himself for a whole five quarters...