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Here is my response.With all due respect Ken, I think the most compelling argument would simply be the possibility of passing the torch from one franchise QB to another. Certainly not meaning to be a smartass, as I'm quite sure you've covered many possibilities while pondering the idea.
Garoppolo has obviously progressed quite nicely and has a good grasp of our system. To me, that's likely the most important trait, even more than "just" talent. That said, he certainly has looked plenty talented and has shown quite a lot of poise in his first 2 starts. I don't think anyone better is coming through that door anytime soon in terms of future franchise QBs, but of course that's simply my humble opinion.
a. HTF do you "pass the torch" when releasing Tom Brady after the 2017 creates a dead cap issue that completely destroys your cap structure. And I'm assuming here that "passing the torch" means Tom Brady is no longer a Patriot in 2018 Again it would cost over 20MM to get rid of Brady and another 20 MM to sign JG long term.
If Miguel comes on the site and explains how that could happen realistically, then I might reconsider my opinion, but right now I can't see it happening, ESPECIALLY when we are going to have to sign at minimum THREE top of the market deals to keep the core of our team together THIS off season, and then sign another half dozen FA's to decent deals if we want to keep our team together. Now based on what Miguel has written I believe we can get most of this accomplished. HOWEVER if Miguel is correct (as he usually is), one year later our cap IS NOT going to be able to absorb a $40+MM hit at the QB position for 2018.
This isn't an issue of JG's talent and potential, nor is it even an issue of Tom Brady or JG (though I have to admit I have no clue as to what people who want to move on from Brady are thinking). It's an issue of contracts and timing..
b. No one is more excited about how well JG looked in those 5+ quarters. I expect him to be good, but not THAT good. HOWEVER this is only 5+ Quarters. Has everyone forgotten how good Tony Eason was before he got beat up and became the gun shy "turtler" that seems to his only legacy. It was a lot longer than just 5 quarters. I can even remember how great Jim Plunket looked for a few years before he too took too many big hits.
That's why I don't understand how you can possible want to "move on" from Tom Brady for a guy (as good as a prospect as he seems) couldn't get through a game and half before he got hurt. And they want to do this BEFORE even Brady shows a scintilla of decline.
c. I do not understand why there seems to be such an urgency to make a decision when there is ANOTHER QB prospect on the roster who might be every bit as good as JG, though we won't know for sure for another 2 years. A prospect whose contract spans the timing that fits the cap and the eventual decline in Brady I'm expecting to see after the 2018 season.
d. I do not understand how people don't see how valuable an asset JG would be after the 2016 season, and how much less an asset he'd be after 2017...if anything at all. So again, I ask a question, why would you waste a premium asset when the alternative seems to be either destroying you cap structure or becoming another one of those top heavy teams thin teams we saw here in the late 90's, and ruin your team building philosophy of building a deep team with lots of depth and a strong middle class.
And I blame you for keeping up past 2am to write this