Patriots Plan is become clearer each day

[Ring 6]

I would say it this way.

Bill Belichicks plan is to get the group of players that give him the best chance to win, now and in the future.

GROUP is the key word.

Perhaps Adam Vinatieri is a better kicker than what we will end up with.

But what adds up to more overall? Vinatieri plus 1 or 2 other guys who have to be cheap acquisitions, or the next K plus one or 2 guys that we spend that excess money on to upgrade?

Another way to put it is that we have 20mill of cap room. After factoring in the draft etc, say we have 14.

Is it better to pay 2 star players 7mill each, or to spread that 14 mill over 8-10 guys?
Do you vastly upgrade 2 spots or upgrade to a lesser degree 8-10???????

I dont think the answer is always the same. It depends on the team you have so far, it depends on strengths and weaknesses, it depends on what you expect from developing players who could contribute more next year, etc. It also depends heavily on your long range cap shape.
20mill in cap room is a tiny factor in the cap equation. You can spend that 20 mill many diffierent ways. Which is the best depends more on what 07,08,09 etc cap status looks like.

Another example:

Lets say BB has determined Willie McGinest could be a tremendous help to this team in 2006, but by 2007 probably won't be able to contribute nearly as much and will need a replacement.

Here is your choice. Do you sign McGinest and also find his replacement to start coaching up (rookie or young FA) or do you cut ties, find the replacement now, at a cheaper price, accept you move backward today, but forward in the future in that roster spot, but then use the excess cap room to improve another one?

It all boils down to one thing IMO. EVERY available player is judged as:
1) How much can he help me today
2) How much can he help me down the road
3) How big is the dropoff to the next guy in line
4) AND MOST VITAL:
What do i sacrifice being able to do in other areas by paying this guy

Its kind of like living on a budget.
Your home needs upgrades, you cannot afford all. Every single one you choose not to do is a problem. You must choose based on necessity, cost, and alternatives.
If my roof is leaking and it takes my entire budget to fix it, but there are 7 other things needed to be done that cost the same as the roof, I must choose between those choices. None are perfect, but I cannot consider doing the other 7 things without recognizing they make me live with a leaky roof.
If one of those is a refrigerator and fixing the roof means I have eat out every day, and wont be able to afford it, that may force me to accept that I need to put a bucket under the leak.

It just amazes me sometimes that as fans we seem to get caught up in who is being signed by who, and forget the complexity of building a roster.
If BB did not have such a track record of success, I might wonder if he knows what he is doing---because he is doing it differently than the rest of the league is right now. However, with BBs record if 31 teams do one thing and BB is the only one to do it differently, Im pretty confident 1 has a better plan than 31 others share.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Good thread. The only thing that I'll add about Eric is the old saying.

BB taught Eric everything that that Eric knows. BB did not teach Eric everything that BB knows.

 

[Mainefan]

And another thought--we've suffered a great deal because of injuries in the last couple of years. That may have cost us an SB last year. But by holding back some cap money, we can go out and buy good replacements when we need them.

Still, it is nerve-wracking, especially to fans who don't know the inside thinking. And it will be equally nerve-wracking to see who BB/SP choose in the draft. Lawson vs. Carpenter vs Greenway. How can anyone be sure?

And then there are the plans of our competitors. How might they throw a monkey-wrench into our plans? Who might fall, unexpectedly, and who might be snatched up more quickly than expected? And we have 15 minutes to react?

We have talents, personalities, desires to judge, to look at as logically as possible, and even BB and SP have their own emotions and inclinations to deal with. It's almost like deciding between three cars, each with their pluses and minuses, each with their unknowns--except that we don't have to worry that other buyers might steal our choice. Well, if we're talking about used cars, that factors in too.

I pity those who think that football season begins in late August.

 

[gomezcat]

I would say it this way.

Bill Belichicks plan is to get the group of players that give him the best chance to win, now and in the future.

GROUP is the key word.

Perhaps Adam Vinatieri is a better kicker than what we will end up with.

But what adds up to more overall? Vinatieri plus 1 or 2 other guys who have to be cheap acquisitions, or the next K plus one or 2 guys that we spend that excess money on to upgrade?

Another way to put it is that we have 20mill of cap room. After factoring in the draft etc, say we have 14.

Is it better to pay 2 star players 7mill each, or to spread that 14 mill over 8-10 guys?
Do you vastly upgrade 2 spots or upgrade to a lesser degree 8-10???????

I dont think the answer is always the same. It depends on the team you have so far, it depends on strengths and weaknesses, it depends on what you expect from developing players who could contribute more next year, etc. It also depends heavily on your long range cap shape.
20mill in cap room is a tiny factor in the cap equation. You can spend that 20 mill many diffierent ways. Which is the best depends more on what 07,08,09 etc cap status looks like.

Another example:

Lets say BB has determined Willie McGinest could be a tremendous help to this team in 2006, but by 2007 probably won't be able to contribute nearly as much and will need a replacement.

Here is your choice. Do you sign McGinest and also find his replacement to start coaching up (rookie or young FA) or do you cut ties, find the replacement now, at a cheaper price, accept you move backward today, but forward in the future in that roster spot, but then use the excess cap room to improve another one?

It all boils down to one thing IMO. EVERY available player is judged as:
1) How much can he help me today
2) How much can he help me down the road
3) How big is the dropoff to the next guy in line
4) AND MOST VITAL:
What do i sacrifice being able to do in other areas by paying this guy

Its kind of like living on a budget.
Your home needs upgrades, you cannot afford all. Every single one you choose not to do is a problem. You must choose based on necessity, cost, and alternatives.
If my roof is leaking and it takes my entire budget to fix it, but there are 7 other things needed to be done that cost the same as the roof, I must choose between those choices. None are perfect, but I cannot consider doing the other 7 things without recognizing they make me live with a leaky roof.
If one of those is a refrigerator and fixing the roof means I have eat out every day, and wont be able to afford it, that may force me to accept that I need to put a bucket under the leak.

It just amazes me sometimes that as fans we seem to get caught up in who is being signed by who, and forget the complexity of building a roster.
If BB did not have such a track record of success, I might wonder if he knows what he is doing---because he is doing it differently than the rest of the league is right now. However, with BBs record if 31 teams do one thing and BB is the only one to do it differently, Im pretty confident 1 has a better plan than 31 others share.

Nicely summed up. The thing that people seem to overlook is the fact that you can count on losing 20-30% (at a guess) of players through injury for at least part of the season. The last time I checked, big FA signings fall into that category as well. Some of those signings for other teams are going to look very expensive when their backup messes up on a key play.

BTW, kudos to Marcus for an excellent post. It's about the long term and realising that today's $20 million can become much, much less in a year's time.

 

[arrellbee]

The more you see what they are doing and more importantly NOT doing...the clearer it becomes.

Very good observations in your whole post. Thanks.

Indeed, you would think it would be 'clearer' to a lot of folks, especially the media 'experts'. But it strikes me that it shouldn't be GETTING CLEARER. There is very little that the Pats are doing that isn't EXACTLY what they have done all along !! And their approach is PROVEN successful. So why do so many people, including those pundits, try SO hard to think that 1) the Patriots should NOW do things differently, mostly to do short-sighted unenlightened moves that so many other teams have proven is a bad way to operate; and 2) that all of a sudden, this proven approach isn't any good anymore ? IT SHOULD BE CLEAR ALREADY.

The patriots are making many spots available for younger players acquired through the draft in 4 weeks or the up and coming unrecognized free agent talent that they will sign between now and June.
There still are enough top quality character veterans on both sides of the ball to help transition in the new talent.
This will help the Patriots VERY quickly go from one of the oldest teams in the league to one of the youngest.
This will allow the Patriots over the next year to make a big transition in terms of youth and speed, while still remaining competitive.
The huge payoff will be in 2007-2009, when all of this infusion of youth and speed becomes seasoned and they will be able to make another extended run.

You make two perceptive points - the Patriots will do the best job they can in getting draft talent that can be solid contributors AND they will shop for value (NOT the same things as cheap !! ) priced free agents. However, you then kind of empasize the draft side over the free agents. Their approach actually seems to continue to look equally at both approaches (the roster runs about half players they have drafted and half that they have signed as FA or traded for). It would appear that the approach is to bring both types into camp and pick the best between the two on a position by position basis - without any particular bias toward either, but which seems to work out about equal as it ends up. I'm not sure that I agree that this year will be any different. And I'm pretty sure that the Patriots will NOT overly sacrifice their chances to win this year at the expense of future years - but, conversely, I'm pretty sure that they always make their player decisions with practical weight towards the future as well.

They will still focus on doing everything they can to keep the few true core players (Brady, Seymour, Branch, Watson, Wilfork). But other than those few guys they are prepared to let any other player walk if the price is not right.

Well, I'm not totally sure they regard any player as such a core player that they will match the highest bid of other teams. Fortunately, we didn't have to find out the hard way on Brady whether even he fit into that category. But I am not at all convinced that they will pay highest dollar for even Seymour or Branch. I certainly wouldn't be surprised if I were wrong - but I will be more surprised if they do.

The big difference for the Patriots' darft in 4 weeks relative to many other teams (whoa re locked in at many postions with high priced free agents) is that it is likely that 4-5 of teh Pats draftees will have major chances at starting or becominfg key backups right away.

They do tend to keep roster spots for most of the rookie draftees for at least the first season. As a matter of expectation, though, in terms of how much contribution they will get from the draft, note the following. I'll only include draftees since 2001, since 2000 was kind of a first year for BB/SP.
-They have had 6 first rounds picks and all 6 are still with the team and are all starters.
-They have had 5 second round picks and all 5 are still with the team. Only 3 are starters, and Bethel Johnson and Marquise Hill may be on the bubble.
- They have had 3 third round picks and all 3 are still with the team. Hobbs and Kaczur appear to be solid players and even contending for starting jobs. Jury is still out on Gus Scott.
-They have had 9 fourth rounders but only 4 are still with the team, so you begin to see a significant drop off (only to be expected). You have only one starter, Samuel, and one solid backup, Green, and Klecko and Sanders are still uncertainties.
-From the 19 fifth thru seventh round picks, only 4 are left. One starter, Koppen, and then Tully Banta-Cain. Claridge and Cassel are too new to tell.

So you can't count on very many roster players below the third round. At each draft, folks get somewhat excited about 4th-7th rounders, but it's long odds.

postscript: None of the 2000 draft are still around, but the two that remain are pretty good contributors - Brady a 6th and Pass a 7th !!

Yes, the past month has been hard to sit by and watch all those big names go off the board. But Belichick and Pioli know better than John clayton, Michael Felger or Borges...what system they want to
play and what type of player will fit in and can play it.

Boy, you got that right !!

Lastly, because Mangini, Crennell and others are now on other teams within the AFC...The Patriots have to make major changes in personnel and philosophy to stay a step ahead of the other teams with ex patriots players.

The best way to do that is big time changes on offense and Defense both with Philosophy and personnel. Scouts will not have a great read on capabilities of players taken through the draft or these lower tier free agents.

I think Pioli and BB's plan is brillliant and NECESSARY. They ahve to chnage into a comletely new team. THe old ways will likely not work as well as teams are very prepared for the old ways.

Actually, that probably isn't the case. There are famous observations that all teams knew exactly what plays Lombardi's Packers were going to run - but the Packers just executed so well, that the other teams couldn't stop them anyway. And there is another famous reference about the Red Auerbach Celtics - all the coaches and players in the league knew all of the Celtics plays, even by the names the Celtics had for the plays - but the plays were just so fundamentally sound and executed so well, that, again, it didn't matter that everyone knew exactly what the Celtics were doing.

I think that you may find that the Patriots fall into that same type of category. Belichick has refined a system of play designs on offense and defense that he feels gives the best results. I am sure he is not inflexible about changing over time, but my guess it is only when he feels there is a slightly better scheme. I'm sure he does some adaptation or selection based on particular player talents in a give year. And, of course, he is renowned for game planning to pick a particular subset of scheme that causes the other team real problems. An example to ponder - last preseason, there was rampant speculation that, because of the depth of the DL and the losses in the LB corps, that Belichick would surely switch to a 4-3 defense. But, regardless, he didn't. You can probably attribute that to the fact that he is convinced that the 3-4 is the more effective base scheme - even if all other teams in the league know how it operates and have large amounts of film to observe. Belichick will simply coach the players he has and try to get better each practice and game and get players to be effective in his chosen system. The results toward the end of last season pretty much prove the validity of his approach.

2006 will be a good year...But look for 2007-2009 to be MORE GREAT YEARS. BB and Pioli are brilliant and are light years ahead of the rest of the predictable GM's and coaches in the league.

NE PATS fans are so lucky to have BB and Pioli!

Keep spreading the word and the faith !! Those of faint heart can use all of the encouragement we can give them !!

 

[Ring 6]

Nicely summed up. The thing that people seem to overlook is the fact that you can count on losing 20-30% (at a guess) of players through injury for at least part of the season. The last time I checked, big FA signings fall into that category as well. Some of those signings for other teams are going to look very expensive when their backup messes up on a key play.

BTW, kudos to Marcus for an excellent post. It's about the long term and realising that today's $20 million can become much, much less in a year's time.

Injuries are a TREMENDOUS concern.
We won the SB in 03 and 04 as the most injured SB winners ever (1 and 2)
Last year we didnt win the SB and injuries probably were a primary reason

The history of Free Agency says way more signings are disappointments than not. And it makes sense because they are paid for what they were, not what they will be. (I mean the big name guys)
As we patiently approach FA and allow the prices to come in line (its very realiistic that we end up affording 2 more players by waiting than by jumping in with the same total cap cost) what type of players remain? Ones that stand to GET BETTER rahter than have their best days behind them, and just a simportantly, the younger crop of players that are less likely to be injured.

If the FA class BB signs turns out to be totally mediocre, but injury free, we are a better team than we were last year, because in addition to our excellent nucleus we are putting decent players on the field instead of having better ones injured and on the sidelines and players on the field that we scrambled to find off the street.

 

[PATRIOTS-80]

Great post Andy Johnson.

 

[fgssand]

Andy, as usual - you have nailed it. The Patriots are always improving on an ongoing basis. Scott Pioli has said many times, whenever there is an opportunity to upgrade a position and get better talent, he will do it everytime, that is his job. He owes it the football team to do just that no matter how hard of a decision it may be from a personal or emotional standpoint. What is in the best interest of winning football games is what the New England Patriots are all about from top to bottom of the organization.

I suggest everybody go back and read "Management Secrets of the NEP Volume 1&2" for a refresher course on how and why this team has been, is and will continue to be amongst if not the best team in the NFL, as long as current management remains in place.

 

[AzPatsFan]

One step or three ahead of y'all

Surprise !! We are already very young. The offense is nothing but kids and two geezers Dillon and Brown. The Dline and DBs are mostly kids.

Next for the LBs and ST, the last and oldest squads left. Notice that Phife, TJ, Willie, and Chad Brown are gone from the LBs? That AV, and Chatham are gone from ST? Coincidences ?? Yeah, SUUURRREEE they are....

In fact this is the end of getting younger, I think, not the beginning. Maturing to win is what's in store after this offseason...

 

[shakadave]

Surprise !! We are already very young. The offense is nothing but kids and two geezers Dillon and Brown. The Dline and DBs are mostly kids.

Next for the LBs and ST, the last and oldest squads left. Notice that Phife, TJ, Willie, and Chad Brown are gone from the LBs? That AV, and Chatham are gone from ST? Coincidences ?? Yeah, SUUURRREEE they are....

In fact this is the end of getting younger, I think, not the beginning. Maturing to win is what's in store after this offseason...

Radical brilliant post AZ!

 

[DarrylS]

Glad to see this post, seems that so many fans have been dealing with the emotion of these personnel losses. I have felt all along that Givens, McGinnest, Vinateri and the rest of the players who have left are vastly overpaid and to have matched their offers would have left us less wiggle room to take care of our "core" players.

I see this team as achieving even more depth, being faster, younger and less predictable than last year. An excellent post is Mangini and Crennel know our players, their strengths and our play calling tendencies so all changes are probably done with this in mind.

Have felt all along this is an 11 0r 12 win team, there is no doubt there will still be some surprises before kickoff in September. We will dominate our division and we will in all likelihood make it deep into the playoffs.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Az, I tripped over that information as well, just putzing around on the team site or somewhere. It's pretty interesting how you can get a "problem" stuck in your head ("need to get younger,") not hear it mentioned for a while, and assume it's ongoing. Good post!

:eat3:

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I agree with just about everything you say. However, towards the end of your post you contradict yourself when you write that the Patriots will have to "change into a completely new team." That implies that the core is not already in place, but it is in the persons of Brady, Seymour and a few others.

The future is difficult to predict and the Patriots are into uncharted territory right now as the only post-cap "Dynasty" to try to continue playing at a Championship level (the '90's Cowboys imploded after the Johnson/Jones Catfight)...everyone is getting better and, as you correctly point out, are using the Patriots and their system as the role model. It remains to be seen whether anyone else can pull it off. Crennel? Will he be able to command the respect that BB commanded on both sides of the ball? Saban? After a good start, things have started to look rocky down in Miami. Cowher? Will he be able to build on last season or will it be a "one year wonder," aided and abetted by some horrible officiating in the SB? Dungy? Will Adam V. turn them into winners at last? Will someone come out of the blue and become the next Belichick? Of all the above, the only one I'd put money on is that the Manning Colts are destined to go the way of the Ewing Knicks. Close a couple of times, but never lifting the trophy.

Otherwise, I think you are one of the few people to pick up on the fact that the Patriots are not rebuilding, but transitioning.

 

[Pats726]

While the players may change significantly (but coaching strategy less so IMHO), I think the one major constant is an unwavering commitment to quality depth across-the-board as the best way to stay consistently competitive through the rigors of an entire season (and post-season). Their use of this depth to compensate for injuries over the long haul has been remarkable. They have been gradually becoming younger for the last couple of seasons, starting with the defensive line, then to the secondary which will continue but with the next emphasis being at LB.

All great points with this post..I AGREE!!!

 

[Jacky Roberts]

I think the Pats are clearly looking to sacrifice this season for big rewards in the near future.

 

[Pats726]

I think the Pats are clearly looking to sacrifice this season for big rewards in the near future.

Huh???? Chicken littles are back...