Patriots open as 5-point favorites at Colts in early lines for NFL week 6

[BobDigital]

Early to bet on a game cause you don't know what might happen tomorrow but I'd jump on that if i were a gambler. Take the over for the Pats. Should be easy money. How fast will that line move you think?

 

[PatsFanSince74]

We're on to Dallas.

 

[supafly]

What's the multiplier of that 5 point favorite? Because it seems awfully low, so either the fix is in or it seems to be an opportunity for gamblers (and I'm not a gambler)

It's very hard to win back to back road games. Pats haven't won back to back road games in a long time. I think the last time was 2012. I hope that streak ends this year.

This is likely a big factor, as the Patriots are 2-9 in their last 11 "back to back" road opportunities.

It also should be noted that even our regular road record isn't as hot as you'd think, which is common for NFL teams, particularly when you win 7 or 8 games at home every year.

I believe that we're 10-8 in the last 18 road games, losing 3 last year and 5 (every single loss including the AFCCG) the year before.

I'd have to guess that these 2 factors, combined with IND's 3 straight victories are lowering next week's futures line a bit.

 

[The Brandon Five]

This is likely a big factor, as the Patriots are 2-9 in their last 11 "back to back" road opportunities.

It also should be noted that even our regular road record isn't as hot as you'd think, which is common for NFL teams, particularly when you win 7 or 8 games at home every year.

I believe that we're 10-8 in the last 18 road games, losing 3 last year and 5 (every single loss including the AFCCG) the year before.

I'd have to guess that these 2 factors, combined with IND's 3 straight victories are lowering next week's futures line a bit.

I don't care about road record the last 18 games, the fact that we only have two competent defensive backs, or any of that. The Pats are going to obliterate the Ponies. A straight-up, no-doubt-about-it butt-kicking. A leave-no-doubt, "hit-em-so-hard they tell 'em where the slaves was hid" beatdown.

 

[Observer]

I thought the Pats cheated the Colts out of an AFC championship and now it is the Pats' FU tour??? We are all dumber for listening to NFL related media.

 

[1960Pats]

Chuck Pagano's supreme confidence surely brings the spread closer by at least a FG

While it will be tempting, I have a strict rule about never giving more than a FG on the road--for any team.

Road teams favored by more than 3 points have gone 5-3 so far this year.
Road teams favored by exactly 3 points have gone 4-4.

 

[fnordcircle]

I put $200 a week down on the pats and they've been so solid over the years that I'm starting to regret not doing it sooner and for more. 5 points is one of those bets where I start thinking about doing something profoundly stupid like putting $10k on the game.

 

[supafly]

Road teams favored by more than 3 points have gone 5-3 so far this year.
Road teams favored by exactly 3 points have gone 4-4.

Well, either way, if you're giving -3 or more on the road, you've gone 9-8 this year--which is exactly why I don't like to do it. I just don't think it has a lot of value. It's just one of those games where I'd prefer to skip over, but that's just me.

I'm not meaning to suggest that NE won't cover next week, as they very well may. This could be one of the handful of situations per year where it could be worth it to take a chance.

Nice job with these stats by the way. Is there a specific site or service that you like to use, or are you just doing old fashioned legwork?

 

[TBR]

My betting website normally puts their point spreads up late Sunday night for the following week. If it's indeed 5 points tomorrow night when I check, I'll probably take advantage as well.

 

[supafly]

My betting website normally puts their point spreads up late Sunday night for the following week. If it's indeed 5 points tomorrow night when I check, I'll probably take advantage as well.

I would certainly keep an eye on it, although I'm skeptical as to whether or not it will actually be -5 when tomorrow's games come to a close and the early lines for week #6 are released.

I use one of the biggest sportsbooks out there, and they don't even have the game listed yet. As a matter of fact, they have just about every game but the NE/IND game listed for week #6 "futures."

 

[pheenix11]

Are we sure this isn't 5 touchdowns?

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

The lines opened a few hours ago and have already been hit hard. As of right now, it is NE -7.5.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

What's a good online betting site? Anything under 8 provides a significantly better than 50/50 chance.

 

[jmt57]

The line has already moved from 5 to anywhere from 7 to 8½ in the last 48 hours, and that was before the Patriots beat the Cowboys by 24 points on the road.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/offshore/2/