Pat’s 1st round pick prediction thread.

[KDPPatsfan85]

I think we trade up for Leighton Vander Esch. He's a perfect fit.

 

[scott99]

I think we trade up for Leighton Vander Esch. He's a perfect fit.

Love Vander Esch. Him or Sam Hubbard. If we can come out of the 1st round with either one of them I’d be thrilled. Prefer Vander Esch, but big fan of Sam Hubbard as well.

 

[maineman209]

I have my doubts about a trade up from #31. I think that BB thinks that he's more than just one or two good players away from having the roster he wants - not only for 2018, but for a couple years after that.

Reid, Vander Esch, Hubbard (there may be one or two others) BB might take at #31 if he thinks they won't last until #43. But BB may not like any of those guys anyway.

If none of BB' preferred guys are going to be there at #31, I'd think that BB would try to trade down for an extra pick in the top 100, but there are only a couple-three teams who possess the actual picks to make that mathematically realistic - and that's assuming that they'd want to trade up.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I saw a mock that had us trading 31 to the browns for 35 and 104.

They had us taking

35 - ot o’Neil Pittsburgh
43 - cb davis auburn
63 - de ejoifor wake forest
95 - olb Warner BYU
104 - qb woodside toledo
136 - ilb Burns Vanderbilt
210 - the breneman u mass
219 - Dt Thompson Georgia

Ps: I loved the woodside pick!

 

[WaterfallJumper]

I have my doubts about a trade up from #31. I think that BB thinks that he's more than just one or two good players away from having the roster he wants - not only for 2018, but for a couple years after that.

Reid, Vander Esch, Hubbard (there may be one or two others) BB might take at #31 if he thinks they won't last until #43. But BB may not like any of those guys anyway.

If none of BB' preferred guys are going to be there at #31, I'd think that BB would try to trade down for an extra pick in the top 100, but there are only a couple-three teams who possess the actual picks to make that mathematically realistic - and that's assuming that they'd want to trade up.

What's funny is that I was just doing a projected 53 man roster, and I struggled to find places to put rookies. Different perspectives. This is a solid team that should contend for the Super Bowl again. While we need to continue to build depth for the future, I'm not sure I see a lot of starting jobs available. In fact, in my most recent mock, I had us picking three rookies, and trading the rest of the picks forward to get a 1st next year (43 + 95 for a 2019 first, to give us ammo to trade up next year or the year after to get a QB of the future).

I could see this year going one of two ways: like last year, with only four players taken, or like 2015, with 11 players drafted and then Andrews added in UDFA. I haven't made up my mind at all, because I'm not privy to the team's internal dynamics. Strange season.

 

[BelichickFan]

I could see this year going one of two ways: like last year, with only four players taken, or like 2015, with 11 players drafted and then Andrews added in UDFA. I haven't made up my mind at all, because I'm not privy to the team's internal dynamics. Strange season.

It's tough because we don't know how they feel about the young guys on the 53 (Hollister, Jones * 2, Wise, Lee, Dorsett Mitchell's knee, etc) and also some of the intriguing practice squad guys.

If the answer is negative on many of them I would stand pat or trade down to load up on picks.

If the answer is positive I would try to flip #31 into a #1 next year and a #3 or so this year Like you said, to position ourselves as good as possible for a QB next year.

QB high this year ? Only if a really good value is there for us or if there's real uncertainty about Brady beyond 2018. Otherwise I would take a QB late as a shot and hope to get lucky. With lots of QB this year the third group could really fall if 8 or so go in the first two rounds.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

I saw a mock that had us trading 31 to the browns for 35 and 104.

They had us taking

35 - ot o’Neil Pittsburgh
43 - cb davis auburn
63 - de ejoifor wake forest
95 - olb Warner BYU
104 - qb woodside toledo
136 - ilb Burns Vanderbilt
210 - the breneman u mass
219 - Dt Thompson Georgia

Ps: I loved the woodside pick!

Just a note: Breneman retired due to injuries.

 

[IllegalContact]

another day, another A+


Your score is: 23016 (GRADE: A+)

Your Picks:
Round 2 Pick 15 (ARI): Rankin, Martinas, OT, Mississippi State (A-)
Round 2 Pick 26 (ATL): Averett, Anthony, CB, Alabama (A-)
Round 2 Pick 31: Hurst, Hayden, TE, South Carolina (A-)
Round 3 Pick 1 (BUF): Allen, Marcus, FS, Penn State (A-)
Round 3 Pick 7 (DEN): Baker, Jerome, OLB, Ohio State (A)
Round 3 Pick 15 (ARI): Miller, Kolton, OT, UCLA (A-)
Round 3 Pick 20 (LAC): Kiser, Micah, ILB, Virginia (A+)
Round 3 Pick 31: Holmes, Jalyn, DE, Ohio State (A)
Round 3 Pick 35 (DEN): Penny, Rashaad, RB, San Diego State (A+)
Round 4 Pick 13 (DEN): Toliver II, Kevin, CB, LSU (A+)
Round 4 Pick 36: Litton, Chase, QB, Marshall (B-)
Round 5 Pick 18 (LAC): Fountain, Daurice, WR, Northern Iowa (A)
Round 6 Pick 31: Mataafa, Hercules, OLB, Washington State (A+)
Round 6 Pick 36: ****son, Michael, P, Texas (A)

 

[mgteich]

What's funny is that I was just doing a projected 53 man roster, and I struggled to find places to put rookies. Different perspectives. This is a solid team that should contend for the Super Bowl again. While we need to continue to build depth for the future, I'm not sure I see a lot of starting jobs available. In fact, in my most recent mock, I had us picking three rookies, and trading the rest of the picks forward to get a 1st next year (43 + 95 for a 2019 first, to give us ammo to trade up next year or the year after to get a QB of the future).

I could see this year going one of two ways: like last year, with only four players taken, or like 2015, with 11 players drafted and then Andrews added in UDFA. I haven't made up my mind at all, because I'm not privy to the team's internal dynamics. Strange season.

Yes, 4 player were taken last year, but we should include Cooks, our first rounder.

 

[mgteich]

What's funny is that I was just doing a projected 53 man roster, and I struggled to find places to put rookies. Different perspectives. This is a solid team that should contend for the Super Bowl again. While we need to continue to build depth for the future, I'm not sure I see a lot of starting jobs available. In fact, in my most recent mock, I had us picking three rookies, and trading the rest of the picks forward to get a 1st next year (43 + 95 for a 2019 first, to give us ammo to trade up next year or the year after to get a QB of the future).

I could see this year going one of two ways: like last year, with only four players taken, or like 2015, with 11 players drafted and then Andrews added in UDFA. I haven't made up my mind at all, because I'm not privy to the team's internal dynamics. Strange season.

You say that you can't find spots for rookies. You also say that you don't see a lot of starting jobs available.

Before discussing, I would point out that draft choices are usually for future starters and even future backups. For example, surely we might need a starting DE next year, or a starting LB, or even a starting guard.

With regard to 2018, warn I look at my WAG roster projections, I see at least the following possibilities. I don't know how many might make the team. I would need to know who is injured between now and the beginning of the season. Only 4 were drafted last year plus Cooks. However, I believe 3 UDFA's made the team, so there were slots.
========
14 POSSIBILITIES (my WAG's currently in those roster spots)
QB3 (no one, this would be a developmental roster spot)
KR/WR5 (Patterson)
TE2 (Allan)
TE3 (Hollister/Tye)
RB4 (Gillislie/Hill)
RB5 (no one, this would be a developmental roster spot)
DE4 (Lee)
DE5 (no one, this would be a developmental roster spot)
LB 3 (Rivers if he is healthy)
LB 4 (Flowers)
LB 5 (Roberts/Langi)
CB 5 (C Jones)
S 4 (Richards)
ST (as always, a top STer would have a shot)

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Good points @mgteich. You're absolutely right about depth and future starters, vis-à-vis immediate starters. I was also indulging in a bit of hyperbole, so forgive me for the lack of precision. I agree with your overall assessment above.

For what it's worth, my projection looked something like this, although I am fully aware it's early, and the numbers per position aren't well balanced. TE2 is a mess. I think I left Allen off accidentally, so that would have to be fixed. Don't be too harsh.


Attempt at a 53

31: Justin Reid (replaces Richards; can play strong or free, and is also a good man to man coverage specialist who can run with both TEs and slot corners)
43 + 95 = 2019 1st (positioning for a future trade up for a top quarterback after Brady)
63: Tyquan Lewis (replaces Grissom; heavily underrated edge player who reminds me of a cross between Everson Griffen and Vinny Curry, and can rush standing up or inside against guards)
136: Leon Jacobs (replaces Roberts; experience playing inside and outside linebacker, as well as rush end, comfortable in coverage, and hs supreme physical abilities per elite testing)

The rest traded into next year or for vets? Practice squad players? Obviously not realistic. As I mentioned, TE is a problem area. This is still early in the team building process, and I expect a few minor trade involving late round picks, as well as some bargain bin shopping in free agency as the season progresses.


DT
Brown Shelton Guy
Butler Valentine Wise (could also be DE, but plays inside on some passing downs)

DE
Clayborn T. Flowers
T. Lewis Rivers

LB
Hightower Van Noy
Jacobs M. Flowers Langi

DB
Chung McCourty Harmon
Reid King Ebner

CB
Gilmore McCourty
Rowe J. Jones
R. Lewis (pending C. Jones recovery from knee surgery)


QB
Brady Hoyer

RB
Burkhead White Devlin
Hill Bolden

TE
Gronk Hollister

OT
Waddle Thuney Andrews Mason Cannon
Garcia Croston Karras Tobin

WR
Edelman Cooks Mitchell
Hogan Slater Patterson

ST
Cardona Ghost Allen

 

[manxman2601]

First Round pickS prediction thread you mean

 

[manxman2601]

It’s a lot to give up for a linebacker (two firsts) but remember when Belichick told Roquan that they’d never see him as they were picking at 31. Not saying he’d use both firsts for Roquan but it was one of the first things to come to mind when I heard about the Cooks trade.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

It’s a lot to give up for a linebacker (two firsts) but remember when Belichick told Roquan that they’d never see him as they were picking at 31. Not saying he’d use both firsts for Roquan but it was one of the first things to come to mind when I heard about the Cooks trade.

I thought he said that to Chubb?

 

[WaterfallJumper]

It’s a lot to give up for a linebacker (two firsts) but remember when Belichick told Roquan that they’d never see him as they were picking at 31. Not saying he’d use both firsts for Roquan but it was one of the first things to come to mind when I heard about the Cooks trade.

He said the same to Bradley Chubb. Either could potentially be transformational.

 

[manxman2601]

That’s my mistake, sorry, I thought it was Roquan. Well the same applies I suppose.

 

[scott99]

First Round pickS prediction thread you mean

I’d be surprised if Belichick uses BOTH 1st round picks. I could see him using pick #23, and then trading #31 for more picks. Pats now have:

1
1
2
2
3
6
6
7

I could see #31 turning into a 2 and a 3, and a 2 turn into a 3 & a 4. That would leave us at

1
2
2
3
3
3
4
6
6
7

I can’t see B.B. drafting in the 3rd round and then not picking till round 6. He will trade up, down and all around.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I’d be surprised if Belichick uses BOTH 1st round picks. I could see him using pick #23, and then trading #31 for more picks. Pats now have:

1
1
2
2
3
6
6
7

I could see #31 turning into a 2 and a 3, and a 2 turn into a 3 & a 4. That would leave us at

1
2
2
3
3
3
4
6
6
7

I can’t see B.B. drafting in the 3rd round and then not picking till round 6. He will trade up, down and all around.

I'm guessing the Pats will make about 7 or 8 picks, not 10+.

 

[manxman2601]

I’d be surprised if Belichick uses BOTH 1st round picks. I could see him using pick #23, and then trading #31 for more picks. Pats now have:

1
1
2
2
3
6
6
7

I could see #31 turning into a 2 and a 3, and a 2 turn into a 3 & a 4. That would leave us at

1
2
2
3
3
3
4
6
6
7

I can’t see B.B. drafting in the 3rd round and then not picking till round 6. He will trade up, down and all around.

Agreed, but at least for now they have multiple picks in the first. Enjoy it while it lasts. And now, at least we’ll likely see a pick made on the Thursday - it’s been boring of late without a Thursday pick.

 

[luuked]

I’d be surprised if Belichick uses BOTH 1st round picks. I could see him using pick #23, and then trading #31 for more picks. Pats now have:

1
1
2
2
3
6
6
7

I could see #31 turning into a 2 and a 3, and a 2 turn into a 3 & a 4. That would leave us at

1
2
2
3
3
3
4
6
6
7

I can’t see B.B. drafting in the 3rd round and then not picking till round 6. He will trade up, down and all around.

I think they will definitely move one of the early picks to space out their day 3 picks a bit more. There is a giant gaping hole between round 3 and 6 right now.

The most likely imo remains #31 as #43 is close enough and the late first round pick has the added value of a fifth year for teams that want to trade back in for a specific player.

But realistically they have so much flexibility now that anything is possible really.