OTish: Neat chart on teams' 1st-2nd-3rd down run/pass tendencies

[Ring 6]

I would assume that the chart does not cover the cases where 3rd down was not necessary.

Right so it excludes 1st or 2nd down successful plays leaving very little meaning.

 

[Ring 6]

Yes but it's only about 10% of the time. The thing I take from the chart is how Pats don't lead in any one category which makes their play calling unpredictable.

For example, look at HOU #1 with a large % of RPP plays. Same for PIT #1 with large % of PPP plays. Makes them more predictable.

On those two categories Pats are 12th and 18th respectively and those are their largest % combinations making their play calling more unpredictable.

This doesn’t tell you anything about playcalling or predictability because it only includes first and Second downs that didn’t result in a first.

 

[venecol]

This doesn’t tell you anything about playcalling or predictability because it only includes first and Second downs that didn’t result in a first.

That may be true but nobody worries about 1st and 2nd downs that result in a first down. The worry is always about getting that 3rd down. In any event I find the chart interesting.

 

[Ring 6]

That may be true but nobody worries about 1st and 2nd downs that result in a first down. The worry is always about getting that 3rd down. In any event I find the chart interesting.

What?
Nobody cares about the success rate of first and second down? Huh?

What conclusion do you draw from knowing the percentage of time they ran or passed on first and second down when they needed a 3rd without knowing the percentage of time they succeeded?

The chart doesn’t gauge success just frequency of r/p combos on the set of plays where you needed a 3rd down.

I’m not being difficult, I’m genuinely curious what insight this chart would provide.

 

[venecol]

What?
Nobody cares about the success rate of first and second down? Huh?

What conclusion do you draw from knowing the percentage of time they ran or passed on first and second down when they needed a 3rd without knowing the percentage of time they succeeded?

The chart doesn’t gauge success just frequency of r/p combos on the set of plays where you needed a 3rd down.

I’m not being difficult, I’m genuinely curious what insight this chart would provide.

I guess I didn't make myself clear. What I meant was if the 1st a/o 2nd down results in getting 10 yards then, we as fans don't have to worry about getting a 3rd down play, obviously.

I'm talking about us as fans not the league. All we ever talk about here is 3rd down plays, their success rate and completing them or stopping the other team. During last game Brady completed 3 straight 3rd down plays at the end, I believe they were all PPP. Everybody was talking about those 3rd and 10 down plays.

So yea nobody talks about 1st and 2nd down plays that are successful as much. I'm pretty sure the chart is not useful to other teams and that they have more complete analytics of the Pats plays, but since I'm not an analyst, it will help me as a fan, appreciate how they approach 3rd down plays in the future.

 

[venecol]

I can't figure out what the green and red small numbers are at the very top of the chart.

 

[BTTA]

Fruit Juice Is Just as Unhealthy as a Sugary Drink

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Saw this kicking around the net. Neat to see the differences and commonalities between teams.

Excellent find QM...

 

[Patjew]

Remember that time when the Pats converted three 3rd and longs for first downs in overtime in an AFCCG?

I liked that.

 

[n6249c]

That may be true but nobody worries about 1st and 2nd downs that result in a first down. The worry is always about getting that 3rd down. In any event I find the chart interesting.

Any DC who doesn’t worry about 1st and 2nd downs that result in a first down should be tremendously worried about his imminent unemployment.

 

[n6249c]

What?
...
I’m not being difficult, I’m genuinely curious what insight this chart would provide.

It’s pretty.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

who knew the pats were the 3rd most likely team to go run-run-run?

I'm also surprised. Yet looking at the chart the Patriots are often opposite the league average.

Category (Patriots usage Ranking) [league usage overall - best guess from chart]

More likely to be used by the Patriots vs league usage:

PPR (2nd most likely to use) [PPR is the least commonly used category]
PRR (6th most likely to use) [PRR is the 2nd least commonly used category]
RRR (3rd most likely to use) [RRR is the 4th least commonly used category]

Less likely to be used by the Patriots vs league usage:
RRP (6th most unlikely to use) [RRP is the 2nd most commonly used category]
PRP (3rd most unlikely to use) [PRP is the 3rd or 4th most commonly used category)


RPR, RPP, PPP are categories where the Patriots usage falls near league average.