OT: Wanna read an article about how bad the Colts are?

[Pat_Nasty]

Whatever shot there was that the Colts wouldn't win the AFC South just died with Mike Peterson's season-ending injury.

 

[Fencer]

The last paragraph says the Colts aren't great because they only beat bad teams by small margins when they should win by big margins. Would anybody here care to endorse that argument emphatically?

 

[Oswlek]

The last paragraph says the Colts aren't great because they only beat bad teams by small margins when they should win by big margins. Would anybody here care to endorse that argument emphatically?

Football outsiders did a study a year ago that showed a far greater correlation between teams that demolish bad teams and winning the SB and teams that win a bunch of close games and winning the SB.

It is probably in the archives if you search for words like guts, skates and stomps. These are the terms they used for different types of wins.

 

[Pujo]

Football outsiders did a study a year ago that showed a far greater correlation between teams that demolish bad teams and winning the SB and teams that win a bunch of close games and winning the SB.

It is probably in the archives if you search for words like guts, skates and stomps. These are the terms they used for different types of wins.

The irony is that everything being said about the Colts is also said about the Pats. I remember us not demolishing too many teams in 2001, 2003, or 2004.

 

[mgcolby]

The irony is that everything being said about the Colts is also said about the Pats. I remember us not demolishing too many teams in 2001, 2003, or 2004.

Here is the difference between those teams and this year's Colts team, YPC.

The Pats YPC allowed for each of those seasons:
2001 - 4.3
2003 - 3.6
2004 - 3.9

The 2002 Pats allowed 4.7 YPC. Just an FYI.

The Colts are allowing 5.2 YPC against these teams:

Total Rushing Yards and YPC (note: NFL ranking is based on total rushing yards not Yards per carry)

Total Rushing Rank
NYG - 7th - 4.8 YPC
Hou - 29th - 3.2 YPC
Jax - 8th - 3.8 YPC
NYJ - 25th - 3.2 YPC
Ten - 23rd - 4.0 YPC

All of these team's rushing stats were aided by the Colts run D.

Here is a list of the SB winning teams (last 10 years) and their YPC allowed for that season:

'96 GB - 3.6
'97 Den- 4.7*
'98 Den- 3.6
'99 StL - 3.5
'00 Bal - 2.7
'01 NE - 4.3*
'02 TB - 3.8
'03 NE - 3.6
'04 NE - 3.9
'05 Pit - 3.4

* Only teams to win with more than 4 YPC allowed. But both teams were in the top 5 in points allowed. Denver in 1997 allowed 17.9 PPG and the 2001 Pats allowed 17.0 PPG.

The 2005 Colts are allowing 20.0 PPG against offenses that rank 6,23,8,15,30 respectively. Only two top 15 teams in points scored.

Their next 9 opponents are ranked the following in Points and total rushing:

Rushing Rank - Points Scored Rank
WAS - 6th - 16th
Den - 4th - 28th
NE - 5th - 11th
Buf - 19th - 26th
Dal - 3rd - 3rd
Philly - 11th - 2nd
Ten - 23rd - 29th
Jax - 10th - 8th
Cin - 16th - 7th

I just don't see how they magically plug the gaping hole they have in their defense and win consistentlyagainst the teams they face in this stretch.

 

[workhorse]

Wait until McNair gets hurt, he always seems to. Remember he is the "ultimate warrior" always playing through injuries. Either that or he is always hurt, living up to the nickname McHurt. But hey, they are 4-1.

I hate to say I told you so, but...

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I hate to say I told you so, but...

...you will anyway, shocking so many of us with you prescience on McNair.

 

[Miguel]

I still believe the Jaguars will take that division. I will go one step further. There is a very good chance that Indy does not even make the playoffs. They have played the weak part of their schedule and have won (barely). Now, they go against some tough teams that will run them into the ground (besides the next three after their bye). They might be looking at six to seven losses which may not be good enough.

Still think that Jaguars will win the AFC South.