OT: Official 2021 Tompa Bay Gronkaneers Thread

[Deus Irae]

He is but he has some real all stars up front. But also hot heads too. The 15 yard penalties have to be driving him nuts!

Yeah, I think we've been seeing Brady's temper shortening during the recent stretch.


And I'm not trying to dismiss that OL. But we've seen this year after year. Between protection adjustments, the ability to to audible out of bad play matchups, the ability to move in the pocket, the quick read and release, and the willingness to let plays die, Brady makes his line look much better than it is. Donovan Smith is a great individual example of that. That doesn't mean that the players aren't good, but one thing we've seen by following Brady is that he has the ability to fix everything (or almost everything) on an offense, until a tipping point is reached.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

No

You'd want 4QCs per/possible 4QCs. In other words, how many times does the QB succeed when put in the position of needing to do so.

I don't have the point margins, but a simple calculation of 4QC and losses, meaning that technically it's been possible to come back any time you're losing at some point in the 4th quarter (including postseason, and obviously buzzer beaters would be the exception):

4QC / (4QC + Losses)

Brady: 52/126 - 41.3%
Mahomes: 10/25 - 40.0%
Manning: 45/137 - 32.8%
Roethlisberger: 43/134 - 32.1%
Wilson - 28/89 - 31.5%
Brees: 38/123 - 30.9%
Stafford: 34/132 = 25.8%
A. Smith: 20/93 = 21.5%
Rivers - 30/143 - 21.0%
E. Manning: 31/152 - 20.4%
Rodgers: 19/94 - 20.2%

And this meets the eye test, too. Rodgers is a fake superstar. You can only write off small percentages to defense, luck, point margin to overcome. And the Packers general rankings don't come even close to supporting this case.

It demonstrates exactly what people say about him, which is that he's an ultimate front runner who puts up big stats when things are easy but lacks the upper level skills/ refuses to take risks when the team needs him most.

"Captain Comeback"...lmfao...it is quite literally the very opposite.

 

[Deus Irae]

I don't have the point margins, but a simple calculation of 4QC and losses, meaning that technically it's been possible to come back any time you're losing at some point in the 4th quarter (including postseason, and obviously buzzer beaters would be the exception):

4QC / (4QC + Losses)

Brady: 52/126 - 41.3%
Mahomes: 10/25 - 40.0%
Manning: 45/137 - 32.8%
Roethlisberger: 43/134 - 32.1%
Wilson - 28/89 - 31.5%
Stafford: 34/132 = 25.8%
A. Smith: 20/93 = 21.5%
Rivers - 30/143 - 21.0%
E. Manning: 31/152 - 20.4%
Rodgers: 19/94 - 20.2%

And this meets the eye test, too. Rodgers is a fake superstar. You can only write off small percentages to defense, luck, point margin to overcome. And the Packers general rankings don't come even close to supporting this case.

It demonstrates exactly what people say about him, which is that he's an ultimate front runner who puts up big stats when things are easy but lacks the upper level skills/ refuses to take risks when the team needs him most.

"Captain Comeback"...lmfao...it is quite literally the very opposite.

Yeah, and that's a good way to do it. It's not quite perfect (One might have "failed" to come back after an opponent managed to get the GW score with under 10 seconds to play, for example), which is why I would love to see someone really get into it. But it does, as you say, make the point.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Yeah, and that's a good way to do it. It's not quite perfect (One might have "failed" to come back after an opponent managed to get the GW score with under 10 seconds to play, for example), which is why I would love to see someone really get into it. But it does, as you say, make the point.

I'd love to see an advanced breakdown, but I don't have the resources. But, yes, quite simply: in games where QB X trailed at any point in the fourth quarter, what percentage of games did QB X win?

I can't imagine, over that type of large sample size, the variation of time remaining, point margin, field goal percentage, defensive strength, etc will account for more than a few percentage points.

 

[Deus Irae]

I'd love to see an advanced breakdown, but I don't have the resources. But, yes, quite simply: in games where QB X trailed at any point in the fourth quarter, what percentages of games did QB X win?

I can't imagine, over that type of large sample size, the variation of time remaining, point margin, field goal percentage, defensive strength, etc will account for more than a few percentage points.

What's interesting about even the date we have (that you just compiled) is the comparison of Brady and Mahomes. Mahomes is off to an "all-time" kind of start, as in "OMG! Baby G.O.A.T.!" kind of start. And, yet, Brady's percentage is still higher, over a 20+ year period. It's a stat that should get a lot more coverage, and should have had a lot more in depth analysis done on it by this time, because it has the potential, in context, to say a lot when comparing high end QBs to other high end QBs.

And it could then be paired up with a similar "blown 4Q leads" stat to flesh things out even more.

 

[Deus Irae]

Asked if Bucs will cut Antonio Brown outright or put him on a "reserve/did not report" list that would keep him from signing elsewhere, Arians said "that's up to Jason (Licht) and what he wants to do."

 

[Deus Irae]

Arians, asked what he said that Brown objected to and left the field: "You'd have to ask him, brother. I don't have a clue." Also said team had no objection to how Brown handled his lengthy ankle rehab, as has been reported. "None whatsoever."

Asked if there were "precipitating moments" with Antonio Brown before conversation on the sideline that led to him walking off the field mid-game, Arians again says "none whatsoever." Not a lot of details about what was said between the two, so still hard to understand.

"We had a conversation and he left the field." Bruce Arians declined to share details of his conversation with Antonio Brown on Sunday when speaking with reporters on Monday, but he did say it had nothing to do with Brown being injured.

 

[Deus Irae]

Arians on playing everyone Sunday vs. Panthers: "You're playing to get that second seed, that's huge. We're not resting anybody. We're playing to win."

 

[Deus Irae]

Arians says Bucs are waiting on MRI on Ronald Jones' ankle to determine severity. Said Ke'Shawn Vaughn has bruised ribs ("hopefully he'll be ready to go" and he has "fingers crossed that Gio might be able to get back." Also have Bell, Barner. Said "we'll have somebody out there."

 

[amfootball]

They need to put him on that list. Silly to let him sign anywhere with the playoffs in a week.

 

[Deus Irae]

Candidate for "understatement of the year":

"It was not his best game, that's for sure," Arians says of LB Devin White, but says he's not limited by injury. White had only two tackles in Bucs' win over Jets on Sunday.

 

[Tottie]

What's interesting about even the date we have (that you just compiled) is the comparison of Brady and Mahomes. Mahomes is off to an "all-time" kind of start, as in "OMG! Baby G.O.A.T.!" kind of start. And, yet, Brady's percentage is still higher, over a 20+ year period. It's a stat that should get a lot more coverage, and should have had a lot more in depth analysis done on it by this time, because it has the potential, in context, to say a lot when comparing high end QBs to other high end QBs.

And it could then be paired up with a similar "blown 4Q leads" stat to flesh things out even more.

It's a pretty small sample size for Mahomes though. He's obviously not Brady but he at least has done alot more than Rodgers to warrant the coverage.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

If they can keep him on the roster, they should do it. That's what suspensions are for...and with Brown's own actions, they're justified in suspending him for multiple games. Not only would they keep him away from other teams, but who the heck knows...maybe in a few weeks, AB has found god again.

 

[Deus Irae]

Arians, explaining why Bucs went for two up two with 0:15 left vs. Jets, said theJets' only real opportunity to score against Bucs was to block the PAT and return it, and running the ball on a two-point attempt took away that risk for him.

 

[amfootball]

Eh. I hated it. Go up 3 there as if you miss the 2 point and Jets get a great return on the kickoff which they almost did, they can beat you with a FG.

 

[Deus Irae]

It's a pretty small sample size for Mahomes though. He's obviously not Brady but he at least has done alot more than Rodgers to warrant the coverage.

Exactly. It's a small sample during an almost unprecedented run by the guy being pimped as the "next G.O.A.T.", yet Brady's career average a/k/a percentage, after all ups and downs, and with multiple teams, and through multiple eras, is still higher.

 

[Deus Irae]

They need to put him on that list. Silly to let him sign anywhere with the playoffs in a week.

If they can keep him on the roster, they should do it. That's what suspensions are for...and with Brown's own actions, they're justified in suspending him for multiple games. Not only would they keep him away from other teams, but who the heck knows...maybe in a few weeks, AB has found god again.

My guess is that they'll go over the possible legal ramifications and headache, and analyze the (remote to zero) possibility of another team picking him up, before making that final call.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

If they can keep him on the roster, they should do it. That's what suspensions are for...and with Brown's own actions, they're justified in suspending him for multiple games. Not only would they keep him away from other teams, but who the heck knows...maybe in a few weeks, AB has found god again.

Pretty much everyone on the list is aligned just right with their skill level. The Hall of Fame type players are at the top, with Brady being in a different class. Then you have the mid-tier guys like Stafford, Rivers, Eli, etc....just to demonstrate that clutch play really correlates to skill level moreso than some ultra clutch gene. So everyone should line up about where you'd expect. Great QBs get a lot of comebacks because they're great. Brady, Manning, Roethlisberger, Brees and Wilson are Hall of Fame quarterbacks, and they're over 30%.

Then...well...there's only one player who, by virtue of his resume, accolades, and "stats" should absolutely be over 30%. And that one guy just so happens to be the one who is known to be an extremely seflish jackass who ony cares about his own stats and has been accused many times of putting his accomplishments over team accomplishments. The idea that his low percentage is an outlier is absolutely laughable. He's so low because what they say is absolutely true.

 

[Tottie]

My guess is that they'll go over the possible legal ramifications and headache, and analyze the (remote to zero) possibility of another team picking him up, before making that final call.

Whatever they do they need to make sure it is not emotional and that it has the best interest of the team in mind. I'm guessing lots of guys in the locker room are tired of him so locking him up somewhere is not a bad idea. What if Evans goes down in the playoffs and AB apologies to the team? Do you play him or lose the season right there?

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Eh. I hated it. Go up 3 there as if you miss the 2 point and Jets get a great return on the kickoff which they almost did, they can beat you with a FG.

Weird...I was thinking it was a bad call for the exact same reason: that a fumble/return for TD the other way is a lot more likely than a blocked extra point return.