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OT: Justin Jefferson signs a team friendly deal for $35 million a year

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Jefferson is taking up the same cap percentage that Calvin Johnson did when he signed his deal. The cap is going to increase pretty drastically every year making the cap even more irrelevant.
Were the Lions good?

And why would the cap rise "drastically" every year after just increasing the most it has since it the cap was invented due to new TV and gambling deals and after decades of rising roughly 4% in the decade in between new tv deals? Once the new deals settle in place you'll seen incremental rises like you always have.

Anything that forces teams to let good/great players walk out the door is not irrelevant.
 
Were the Lions good?

And why would the cap rise "drastically" every year after just increasing the most it has since it the cap was invented due to new TV and gambling deals and after decades of rising roughly 4% in the decade in between new tv deals? Once the new deals settle in place you'll seen incremental rises like you always have.

Anything that forces teams to let good/great players walk out the door is not irrelevant.
The Lions were generally pretty average but guys like Tyreek Hill and AJ Brown really aren't that far off in AAV. In fact Tyreek, Cooper Kupp, and Deebo will still have the top 3 highest cap hits at receiver in 2024 and all were on playoff teams. As things sit right now (obviously new deals will pop up) Justin Jefferson won't even be a top 5 cap hit in 2025 and will only be the third highest in 2026. You can manipulate the cap in so many ways as long as you have an owner who is willing to pay big chunks up front.



The cap has increased by $10 million+ 9 of the last 10 seasons with the Covid year being the only anomaly and the bounce back from the Covid cap to 2022 was $26 million, over $16 million to 2023, and then almost $30 million this year. The league has shown us more than ever they don't care about the fans or the product and that they only care about the money. With that unabashed greed fully dictating the future of the league the cap is only going to go up as league revenue increases.
 
The Lions were generally pretty average but guys like Tyreek Hill and AJ Brown really aren't that far off in AAV. In fact Tyreek, Cooper Kupp, and Deebo will still have the top 3 highest cap hits at receiver in 2024 and all were on playoff teams. As things sit right now (obviously new deals will pop up) Justin Jefferson won't even be a top 5 cap hit in 2025 and will only be the third highest in 2026. You can manipulate the cap in so many ways as long as you have an owner who is willing to pay big chunks up front.
Yeah, it’s easy to manipulate and overpay WR’s when Tua, Hurts and others are on rookie deals. QB is the most expensive position in football, once that rookie deal ends is when the belt tightening starts and difficult decisions have to be made. Like I said way back, this works in Minny if JJ McCarthy is good on his rookie deal.
The cap has increased by $10 million+ 9 of the last 10 seasons with the Covid year being the only anomaly and the bounce back from the Covid cap to 2022 was $26 million, over $16 million to 2023, and then almost $30 million this year. The league has shown us more than ever they don't care about the fans or the product and that they only care about the money. With that unabashed greed fully dictating the future of the league the cap is only going to go up as league revenue increases.
Saying the cap increased 10 million is misleading, how much did it increase… roughly 4%. Versus this year where it had the highest increase in cap history. New TV deals, gambling deals, a 17th game and money recouped from Covid losses precipitated that. This is a moment in Pro fotball history of ridiculous growth.

Once all the deals are signed, once all the games are accounted for it will settle back into a steady slow increase like it did for decades before. You said it, the owners like money. They’re going to dole it out as sparingly as possible. Old TV deals lasted on average about ten years, some twelve… in between those large increases the cap rises about 4%.

The cap is irrelevant? The cap just increased the most it has in history and teams like Miami, Buffalo and others still felt the sting and had to let good players walk. The cap isn’t impossible to maneuver, but the NFL has a hard cap. This isn’t baseball and we don’t have a conversation every offseason about whether the Pats should extend themselves over the cap into the luxury tax… because there isn’t one. Baseball salaries are stupid for that reason. If NFL teams could simply spend more and consistently win we’d see it happen. Jerry Jones would do it every year. Paul Allen would outspend everyone every offseason.
 
QB Magic... unicorns and fairy's.
There is nothing "magic" about Patrick Mahomes being the best active QB in the NFL. Good luck finding terribly many people who disagree with that statement.
 
There is nothing "magic" about Patrick Mahomes being the best active QB in the NFL. Good luck finding terribly many people who disagree with that statement.
I didn’t say he wasn’t . He’s better because Reid is a genius, his offensive line is exceptional, his defense top five and he even has competent weapons.

Once you have a great QB, Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert, potentially Stroud, it’s up to the team to maximize his potential.

The Chiefs did that, the Bengals and Chargers not so much.

It’s a team game… nobody does it alone.
 
Yeah, it’s easy to manipulate and overpay WR’s when Tua, Hurts and others are on rookie deals. QB is the most expensive position in football, once that rookie deal ends is when the belt tightening starts and difficult decisions have to be made. Like I said way back, this works in Minny if JJ McCarthy is good on his rookie deal.

Saying the cap increased 10 million is misleading, how much did it increase… roughly 4%. Versus this year where it had the highest increase in cap history. New TV deals, gambling deals, a 17th game and money recouped from Covid losses precipitated that. This is a moment in Pro fotball history of ridiculous growth.

Once all the deals are signed, once all the games are accounted for it will settle back into a steady slow increase like it did for decades before. You said it, the owners like money. They’re going to dole it out as sparingly as possible. Old TV deals lasted on average about ten years, some twelve… in between those large increases the cap rises about 4%.

The cap is irrelevant? The cap just increased the most it has in history and teams like Miami, Buffalo and others still felt the sting and had to let good players walk. The cap isn’t impossible to maneuver, but the NFL has a hard cap. This isn’t baseball and we don’t have a conversation every offseason about whether the Pats should extend themselves over the cap into the luxury tax… because there isn’t one. Baseball salaries are stupid for that reason. If NFL teams could simply spend more and consistently win we’d see it happen. Jerry Jones would do it every year. Paul Allen would outspend everyone every offseason.
It is much easier with a QB on a rookie deal but the Eagles have now paid Hurts as well as Devonta Smith and AJ Brown, Stafford is already making big money along with Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey and all their other big contracts in addition to Cupp and the Dolphins will just restructure Hill when they pay Tua this summer. It is why every time the market resets at a position in 2-3 years that market setting deal is just a run of the mill for higher end players at the position.

As for the cap increases look at this year alone. Netflix has now been added to the exclusive streaming of games on Christmas which is new this year. ESPN+ has also locked in an exclusive streaming rights game and this is already in addition to Amazon Prime, and YoutubeTV. It will now cost more than ever if you want to watch every game that would have been broadcast on traditional prime time television. If you want to get Sunday ticket and watch all the other games it will now cost over $850. It is only a matter of time before the NFL+, Apple TV+, Hulu, and all the 35 other apps start streaming games exclusively. That doesn't even factor in the 50 different ways they can cash in on sports betting going forward. The streaming, the gambling, the added games and playoff teams. Eventually there will be a tipping point but it doesn't look like it will happen any time soon.

The cap is crap. Look at the dead cap over the last handful of years. In the last 5 years alone $200 million in dead cap was tied to just 4 players. The way teams are able to structure deals and manipulate the cap and kick the can down the road it doesn't really matter as long as the cap increases YoY. Every single year for the last decade we hear about the Saints being over the cap and they never release anyone who is truly invaluable.



Cash spending is what matters. You can click the text below for an article where Andrew Brandt, who used to manage the cap in the NFL for the Packers outlines that cash is what matters.

Let’s make this very simple: Cash is real money; cap is simply accounting. Cash is what a player will actually receive in a contract. Cap is a mechanism of compliance, a way NFL teams account for a contract over the life of the deal. And through the NFL’s systematic magic of signing and option bonus proration—spreading out the cap impact of bonuses over the term of the deal—cap can be adjusted to provide short-term gain for long-term pain.

As an example, in Jalen Hurts’s recent $251 million extension with the Eagles, the first- and second-year cap numbers are $6.15 million and $13.5 million. Those are cap percentages of roughly $2.8% and 5.7%, shockingly low percentages for a star quarterback on a veteran contract. Of course, the cap numbers and percentages rise significantly in later years, but the future structure of the deal also prevents high cap numbers and percentages. The Eagles used a structure with team options that push out cap proration into dummy void years that will never materialize. Thus, the cap percentages for Hurts in this contract are alarmingly low for a player of his stature.
 
It is much easier with a QB on a rookie deal but the Eagles have now paid Hurts as well as Devonta Smith and AJ Brown, Stafford is already making big money along with Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey and all their other big contracts in addition to Cupp and the Dolphins will just restructure Hill when they pay Tua this summer. It is why every time the market resets at a position in 2-3 years that market setting deal is just a run of the mill for higher end players at the position.
The Eagles also had to let Javon Hargrove and other good players go to make it happen. It wasn’t all sunshine and roses and their defense collapsed from 10th fewest points allowed in 2022 to 30th in 2023… calamity.

The Rams had a fire sale the season before last and posted the worst record in NFL history by a Super Bowl winner the year prior.

The Dolphins just let Christian Wilkins, their best young defensive lineman walk out the door. Are they better now?
As for the cap increases look at this year alone. Netflix has now been added to the exclusive streaming of games on Christmas which is new this year. ESPN+ has also locked in an exclusive streaming rights game and this is already in addition to Amazon Prime, and YoutubeTV. It will now cost more than ever if you want to watch every game that would have been broadcast on traditional prime time television. If you want to get Sunday ticket and watch all the other games it will now cost over $850. It is only a matter of time before the NFL+, Apple TV+, Hulu, and all the 35 other apps start streaming games exclusively. That doesn't even factor in the 50 different ways they can cash in on sports betting going forward. The streaming, the gambling, the added games and playoff teams. Eventually there will be a tipping point but it doesn't look like it will happen any time soon.
Time will determine that, these deals are signed for years… not renegotiated every season.
The cap is crap. Look at the dead cap over the last handful of years. In the last 5 years alone $200 million in dead cap was tied to just 4 players. The way teams are able to structure deals and manipulate the cap and kick the can down the road it doesn't really matter as long as the cap increases YoY. Every single year for the last decade we hear about the Saints being over the cap and they never release anyone who is truly invaluable.



Cash spending is what matters. You can click the text below for an article where Andrew Brandt, who used to manage the cap in the NFL for the Packers outlines that cash is what matters.

Let’s make this very simple: Cash is real money; cap is simply accounting. Cash is what a player will actually receive in a contract. Cap is a mechanism of compliance, a way NFL teams account for a contract over the life of the deal. And through the NFL’s systematic magic of signing and option bonus proration—spreading out the cap impact of bonuses over the term of the deal—cap can be adjusted to provide short-term gain for long-term pain.

As an example, in Jalen Hurts’s recent $251 million extension with the Eagles, the first- and second-year cap numbers are $6.15 million and $13.5 million. Those are cap percentages of roughly $2.8% and 5.7%, shockingly low percentages for a star quarterback on a veteran contract. Of course, the cap numbers and percentages rise significantly in later years, but the future structure of the deal also prevents high cap numbers and percentages. The Eagles used a structure with team options that push out cap proration into dummy void years that will never materialize. Thus, the cap percentages for Hurts in this contract are alarmingly low for a player of his stature.
The cap is crap except to those teams in cap straits who have to let good players walk and hold fire sales. Cash is more important than cap? Not for teams that want to be consistently good every year, to teams that don’t mind being good one season and stinky the next sure… cash spending matters more.

From 1999-2008 the Packers won zero rings with Andrew Brandt’s cap expertise… not sure I’ll defer to his opinion.
 
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The Eagles also had to let Javon Hargrove and other good players go to make it happen. It wasn’t all sunshine and roses and their defense collapsed from 10th fewest points allowed in 2022 to 30th in 2023… calamity.

The Rams had a fire sale the season before last and posted the worst record in NFL history by a Super Bowl winner the year prior.

The Dolphins just let Christian Wilkins, their best young defensive lineman walk out the door. Are they better now?

Time will determine that, these deals are signed for years… not renegotiated every season.

The cap is crap except to those teams in cap straits who have to let good players walk and hold fire sales. Cash is more important than cap? Not for teams that want to be consistently good every year, to teams that don’t mind being good one season and stinky the next sure… cash spending matters more.

From 1999-2008 the Packers won zero rings with Andrew Brandt’s cap expertise… not sure I’ll defer to his opinion.
The "cap casualties" are guys like Hargrave. Guys around 30 would be signing their third contract who are replaced by guys in the draft who in this case was Jordan Davis. Smart teams don't pay 30 year olds big money deals. As for the Rams they lost Stafford, Kupp, and multiple starting linemen mid-way through the year. They also didn't really have a "fire sale". They let an aging Von Miller walk which looks like a good decision, cut their punter, and other than that let a few role players walk. The Rams also traded away every high pick they had for years so they were basically building a team through free agency and trades and it worked out for them and the year after the "fire sale" they were back in the playoffs.

So you and Andrew Brandt have the same amount of rings from 1999-2008 but we should all listen to your opinion instead of the guy who actually did the job for 10 years?
 
I didn’t say he wasn’t . He’s better because Reid is a genius, his offensive line is exceptional, his defense top five and he even has competent weapons.
You are overrating Reid. Prior to Mahomes taking over, he was known as a terrible game manager with McNabb/Eagles (a very good NFL QB) and was fired. During his time with the Chiefs, they had Kelce, Hunt and Hill for a few years, but were an afterthought in the AFC with Smith at QB. They instantly go to 6 straight AFCCG's with Mahomes with bad defenses and poor O-line play during some of those years.
 
You are overrating Reid. Prior to Mahomes taking over, he was known as a terrible game manager with McNabb/Eagles (a very good NFL QB) and was fired. During his time with the Chiefs, they had Kelce, Hunt and Hill for a few years, but were an afterthought in the AFC with Smith at QB. They instantly go to 6 straight AFCCG's with Mahomes with bad defenses and poor O-line play during some of those years.
Brother, that's a lot of subjectivity to take credit away from the guy. He won a ton of games before having an all-timer at QB. Then when he finally got his phenomenal QB, it's been nonstop trips to AFCCGs and SBs. That's what great coaches do when they get a great QB, unlike Peyton, McCarthy, and Dungy, who got meager returns from HoF play at QB. I dislike the Queefs as much as the next guy but I tip my cap to Reid as a coach.
 
The "cap casualties" are guys like Hargrave. Guys around 30 would be signing their third contract who are replaced by guys in the draft who in this case was Jordan Davis. Smart teams don't pay 30 year olds big money deals. As for the Rams they lost Stafford, Kupp, and multiple starting linemen mid-way through the year. They also didn't really have a "fire sale". They let an aging Von Miller walk which looks like a good decision, cut their punter, and other than that let a few role players walk. The Rams also traded away every high pick they had for years so they were basically building a team through free agency and trades and it worked out for them and the year after the "fire sale" they were back in the playoffs.
The 49ers signed Hargrave and found themselves back in the Super Bowl.

The Rams had a fire sale, leading tackler Bobby Wagner, best CB Jalen Ramsey, superweapon they just signed Allen Robinson, leading sacker Leonard Floyd... "role players" they tried to get rid of Stafford but nobody wanted that contract. This article literally has fire sale in the title:


But yeah... this is what you cap deniers do every offseason, pretend things like this aren't happening and dismiss All Pros as being no good. Laughable...
So you and Andrew Brandt have the same amount of rings from 1999-2008 but we should all listen to your opinion instead of the guy who actually did the job for 10 years?
I'll listen to the guy with 6 rings who sustained greatness for two decades.

"Cash spending isn't really that relevant. It's cap spending," Belichick said on WEEI's Greg Hill Show. "So teams that spend a lot of cash one year probably don't spend a lot of cash in the next year, because you just can't sustain that. So we've had high years, we've had low years, but our cap spending has always been high. And that's the most competitive position you can be in. So that's really -- the cash spending, there's no cash cap. There's a salary cap and we spend to the salary cap, that's what's important."

When pressed on the Patriots' philosophy of not going "all in" with cash spending, Belichick said such an approach is not sustainable.

"Temporarily you can. You can't sustain it, no. I mean you can't sustain the 20 years of success that we sustained by overspending every year without having to eventually pay those bills and play with a lesser team," he said. "So I think if you look at the teams that have done that, that's kind of where some of them ended up. Jacksonville back in '14, the Rams are going through it, Tampa's going through it now. Not saying there's anything right or wrong with it, it's just a different way of doing things, and there's a result for doing that."


www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/bill-belichick-salary-cap-spending-more-important-than-cash-spending/
 
You are overrating Reid. Prior to Mahomes taking over, he was known as a terrible game manager with McNabb/Eagles (a very good NFL QB) and was fired. During his time with the Chiefs, they had Kelce, Hunt and Hill for a few years, but were an afterthought in the AFC with Smith at QB. They instantly go to 6 straight AFCCG's with Mahomes with bad defenses and poor O-line play during some of those years.
We played Reid in a Super Bowl back in 2004 when Mahomes was in preschool... give me a break.

He's the best offensive mind in football.
 
Well played sir, that is what I was trying to say but was too dumb to put into words. Thank you.

Also leaving the specific position aside there are only so many generational talents, if you get one at any position you hang onto them in their prime even if it costs a little bit more.


Meanwhile......

For the 31 teams who don't have a generational QB, you find the most successful ones over the past several years indeed have strong receiving corps. Teams such as Philly, San Fran, Cincy, LA, Buffalo, Dallas, Detroit, GB. Having great receivers is the best way to make an average QB look good and a good QB look great.
 
You are overrating Reid. Prior to Mahomes taking over, he was known as a terrible game manager with McNabb/Eagles (a very good NFL QB) and was fired. During his time with the Chiefs, they had Kelce, Hunt and Hill for a few years, but were an afterthought in the AFC with Smith at QB. They instantly go to 6 straight AFCCG's with Mahomes with bad defenses and poor O-line play during some of those years.
+1 +1 +1

It is amazing how much smarter that "genius" coach once Patrick Mahomes starting playing. Kinda reminds me of another sub-.500 "genius" who got a lot smarter once a certain QB started playing, but I digress....
 
Brother, that's a lot of subjectivity to take credit away from the guy. He won a ton of games before having an all-timer at QB.
He was Marty Schottenheimer until he got Mahomes. No one called him a genius. No one called him brilliant. He was the guy who couldn't win the big one and was fired by the Eagles.
 
The 49ers signed Hargrave and found themselves back in the Super Bowl.

The Rams had a fire sale, leading tackler Bobby Wagner, best CB Jalen Ramsey, superweapon they just signed Allen Robinson, leading sacker Leonard Floyd... "role players" they tried to get rid of Stafford but nobody wanted that contract. This article literally has fire sale in the title:


But yeah... this is what you cap deniers do every offseason, pretend things like this aren't happening and dismiss All Pros as being no good. Laughable...

I'll listen to the guy with 6 rings who sustained greatness for two decades.

"Cash spending isn't really that relevant. It's cap spending," Belichick said on WEEI's Greg Hill Show. "So teams that spend a lot of cash one year probably don't spend a lot of cash in the next year, because you just can't sustain that. So we've had high years, we've had low years, but our cap spending has always been high. And that's the most competitive position you can be in. So that's really -- the cash spending, there's no cash cap. There's a salary cap and we spend to the salary cap, that's what's important."

When pressed on the Patriots' philosophy of not going "all in" with cash spending, Belichick said such an approach is not sustainable.

"Temporarily you can. You can't sustain it, no. I mean you can't sustain the 20 years of success that we sustained by overspending every year without having to eventually pay those bills and play with a lesser team," he said. "So I think if you look at the teams that have done that, that's kind of where some of them ended up. Jacksonville back in '14, the Rams are going through it, Tampa's going through it now. Not saying there's anything right or wrong with it, it's just a different way of doing things, and there's a result for doing that."


www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/bill-belichick-salary-cap-spending-more-important-than-cash-spending/
Lol you don't even know which year you're talking about for the Rams. You mentioned them winning a Super Bowl and having the worst year for a defending champion and having a fire sale. The "fire sale" you mentioned was in 2023 when they let Wagner walk after a one year rental and traded Ramsey for a third. Guess what happened last year? They nailed the draft and were back in the playoffs where they narrowly lost to the Lions. Looks like the Rams proved you can build a solid team in free agency or through the draft. You can't even keep track of your own nonsense.

Once again you like to cherry pick and argue in bad faith. We both know that was Bill walking back comments he made about being last in cash spending and then had to tuck his tail between his legs and backtrack. No one is ever going to do what Bill and the Patriots did but it is pretty clear there are other ways to win in this league but you'll never admit it because you're Andy 2.0.
 
+1 +1 +1

It is amazing how much smarter that "genius" coach once Patrick Mahomes starting playing. Kinda reminds me of another sub-.500 "genius" who got a lot smarter once a certain QB started playing, but I digress....
QB's are called coach killers for a reason. Case in point what just happened in NE. If Mac Jones was good, Bill would still be here. Scott Pioli also confirmed the long debated rumor that had Brady flamed out in 2001, both he and BB were going to get fired.
Brother, that's a lot of subjectivity to take credit away from the guy. He won a ton of games before having an all-timer at QB. Then when he finally got his phenomenal QB, it's been nonstop trips to AFCCGs and SBs. That's what great coaches do when they get a great QB, unlike Peyton, McCarthy, and Dungy, who got meager returns from HoF play at QB. I dislike the Queefs as much as the next guy but I tip my cap to Reid as a coach.
Again, he had McNabb which many are downplaying as a slouch. Reid was 5-11 in year one before McNabb became a full time starter in 2000. He was a 6 time Pro Bowler. When he left, Reid was 10-6, 8-8 and then 4-12 which got him fired.

The Peyton/Dungy Colts teams lost for a few reasons. One because they had to face NE on the road. Their defenses was also light and weak and a GM who neglected the defense.

Aside from 2014 and 2011 choke jobs and 2015 against Arizona, McCarthy's teams were consistently overmatched whether they had homefield or not. Their rosters were pretty bad compared to the teams that ended up beating them.
We played Reid in a Super Bowl back in 2004 when Mahomes was in preschool... give me a break.

He's the best offensive mind in football.
How does him going to the Super Bowl in 2004 (20 years ago) help your argument that he's a genius? By the way, they would've gotten handled had the hobbling Owens not played.
He was Marty Schottenheimer until he got Mahomes. No one called him a genius. No one called him brilliant. He was the guy who couldn't win the big one and was fired by the Eagles.
Yep. He was known as a poor clock managing coach who wanted to kick a field goal in a TD needing situation (or maybe that's someone else). I can't remember what game that was. He's a good offensive mind, but you can see the clear correlation of how he did with McNabb and now Mahomes.
 
Unless the NFL changes the rules and a TD scored by a premium WR adds 14 points to the scoreboard I'm investing that money on the OL every day. A good QB with time can move the chains with any scrub.
That's a luxury piece for me.
I'm not saying it's not important of course I'm not blind, but get WRs in rookie contracts and keep renewing. That's the way for me.
 
Only in Madden football you can draft elite WR's on the cheap, let them go and replace them with a new rookie. Only Brady and Mahomes have won multiple Super Bowls without an X WR. Everyone else has to pay up.

Jefferson obliterated the guarantees which I predicted, but he's only $3M per more than the previously leading AJ Brown. This a signing to keep asses in the seats in Minnesota as they have nothing going for them.
Mahomes had better WR overall in his career than Brady but both of them had ELITE, #1 and 2 of all time (could go either way ) TE that was the key to the O and DC had to gameplan around them!!
 
Mahomes had better WR overall in his career than Brady but both of them had ELITE, #1 and 2 of all time (could go either way ) TE that was the key to the O and DC had to gameplan around them!!
I guess by default Mahomes had better WR play because he had Hill for 4 years to Moss' 2 full seasons with Brady. I only see Brady having about 4-5 years out of his career with really mediocre to bad WR play. 2001, 2006, 2013, 2018 and 2019 being the worst.

Kelce is a HOF TE, but Gronk changed the game, had DC's sweating at night and defenders resorting to "Hack a Shaq" like dirty tactics to slow him down. Like Gonzalez and Gates before him, teams were scrambling to find that next big TE to match NE.
 
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