OT: Byes and Seeding

[NovaScotiaPatsFan]

I miss when there were two byes. I hate this stupid 7 team format. I bet the NFL goes to 8 teams and gives the #1 seed a half a bye next.

 

[brdmaverick]

NO MORE PLAYOFF teams. C'mon, man then half the Damn league would be in the playoffs. Here is a simple solution. Just add a simple proviso. A division winner must have at least 10 wins to get a home game. How is that different than counting conference wins to determine a #1 seed in a tie breaker. Just another arbitrary determiner. That eliminates what we are seeing this year in the NFCS yet still keeps the importance of winning your division and division rivalries intact. EXCEPT in those rare years like this one.

Ooh, I like that idea about the 10 wins to guarantee a home game as a division winner.

 

[brdmaverick]

This is a great thread. I've had an 'inner conflict' trying to figure out which is better for the Pats....#1 seed with bye or #2 seed with no bye

I know I know, the rationale side of you says....well, if they are the #2 seed you'll be stressing all week leading up to the game all to try to win a game that would be an ACTUAL guarantee if you were the #1 seed. Not to mention that playing a game just exposes more opportunity for injuries.......but....

Then there is the flip side.
1.) If a team is rolling, maybe it's good to 'keep playing' and not acquire rust.
2.) is the 'rust' factor real. In the new college football playoffs the teams with byes have a losing record
3.) As much as we love Drake Maye, he doesn't actually have any playoff experience. Maybe it would be good to get his feet wet at home against the Chargers instead of coming in cold facing a team like the Bills or Jaguars.

 

[mgteich]

hmm

We want fan interest and competition.

Going into the last week, only one seed was determined!

Going into today, the last day, only two seed has been determined (SEA and GB)

In the AFC, six teams have the possibility of at least three different seeds.

 

[XLIX]

fair enough. I said that it wasn't clear that the bye is an advantage. You think that the situation is 100% clear.
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CONSIDER
if Campbell, Williams, and Boutte weren't able to play tomorrow or perhaps they play for just a series.
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You are 100% sure that it wouldn't be better for everyone to have a game against the weakest wildcard to get ready for a run at the championship. You are 100% sure that the Defense will be better with yet another weak of rest so that they can come back together after not having played together for many weeks.

I'm simply saying that the situation is not at all 100%. If the goal is the championship, then it may sometimes be better for the team to have a first game against a weak team instead having 6-8 players coming into Week 20 very, very rusty.
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We do need to win the game. The #2 seed is indeed important. I think that there is at least an argument that the bye is not a huge plus.
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PERHAPS
you just don't think that we're that good and should be hugely afraid that we'll lose our first game.

I think that if we are one of top 5 or 6 teams in the NFL, we SHOULD be heavily favored in the first game and that the Defense can benefit more from a week playing together from the bye.
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I'm ONLY saying that it is not all that clear. To put it another way, I am not terribly disappointed that we won't have the bye. I'm excited that I am looking forward to playing a home game against the weakest wildcard team and getting our Defense ready for the rest of the playoffs. It will be great to see Williams, Barmore, Tonga and hopefully Spillane playing together instead of resting.

It is 100% clear to everyone that a week of rest is better than a grueling week of practice and a game where you risk exacerbating injury.

It is 100% clear that an automatic pass into the 2nd round is better than having to play a game you might lose. Even the “weakest” WC team is going to be a damn decent team. That isn’t “fear”; it is pure common sense.

You seem not to be aware that based on current seeding - which will probably change later today but I am taking here and now - that “weakest wild card” beat NE in Foxboro earlier this year.

 

[XLIX]

That tells me that the teams that got the bye were better teams.

Of the result of every game was determined by a coin flip, then the #1 seed (team with the bye) would make the Super Bowl twice as often as any of the other seeds individually.

 

[mgteich]

.

You seem not to be aware that based on current seeding - which will probably change later today but I am taking here and now - that “weakest wild card” beat NE in Foxboro earlier this year.

Perhaps you would be interested in last week's seeding or the week before. What matters is seeding after today's games.

Whatever. I would welcome playing BUF. We would have a better chance against them than either of the two other wild cards.
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"grueling week of practice"?
We haven't had those for a decade. that is the very reason why we have so many injuries.
In any case, that is the choice of the coaches.

 

[XLIX]

What the hell planet are (some of ) you people living on? If the Patriots are in a close game and Broncos are down big to LA today in the 4th quarter (which I know is highly, highly unlikely but I am saying IF) then anyone who roots for Miami to pull it out because we’d rather have the #2 than the #1 is a total moron.

 

[mgteich]

Of the result of every game was determined by a coin flip, then the #1 seed (team with the bye) would make the Super Bowl twice as often as any of the other seeds individually.

But it isn't a coin flip with equal opportunities.

TEAM A - 10 point better on a neutral field
TEAM B - 10 points worse on a neutral field

If team B is given a bye, that would not be the same as Team A getting a bye.

I agree that the team with a bye is much more likely to win their next game and much more likely to win the Super Bowl. The team that gets the bye is almost always expected to be the better team.

 

[XLIX]

Perhaps you would be interested in last week's seeding or the week before. What matters is seeding after today's games.

You’re a fool if you think the Patriots can sleepwalk their way to victory against any of the 3 possible opponents. They are all good teams and winning in the NFL is hard.

Whatever. I would welcome playing BUF. We would have a better chance against them than either of the two other wild cards.

No matter what you say, no matter how overconfident you are, if you make the playoffs then your best chance to advance to the second round is to not have to play that first round game in the first place.

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"grueling week of practice"?

I notice you left out “grueling week of practice AND A GAME.” Yeah practice would probably be light on contact - but the game sure as hell won’t be.

 

[XLIX]

But it isn't a coin flip with equal opportunities.

TEAM A - 10 point better on a neutral field
TEAM B - 10 points worse on a neutral field

If team B is given a bye, that would not be the same as Team A getting a bye.

You’ve just obliterated your own argument. If team B is the worse team then they would benefit **tremendously** from getting the bye because it’s one less game they could potentially lose.

 

[mgteich]

This is a great thread. I've had an 'inner conflict' trying to figure out which is better for the Pats....#1 seed with bye or #2 seed with no bye

I know I know, the rationale side of you says....well, if they are the #2 seed you'll be stressing all week leading up to the game all to try to win a game that would be an ACTUAL guarantee if you were the #1 seed. Not to mention that playing a game just exposes more opportunity for injuries.......but....

Then there is the flip side.
1.) If a team is rolling, maybe it's good to 'keep playing' and not acquire rust.
2.) is the 'rust' factor real. In the new college football playoffs the teams with byes have a losing record
3.) As much as we love Drake Maye, he doesn't actually have any playoff experience. Maybe it would be good to get his feet wet at home against the Chargers instead of coming in cold facing a team like the Bills or Jaguars.

this
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I think that we might very well be a better team in the divisional round if we play the Chargers first.
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I never said that this was true, only that there is an argument for this to be true as you demonstrated. I'm glad to see the discussion.

 

[mgteich]

You’re a fool if you think the Patriots can sleepwalk their way to victory against any of the 3 possible opponents. They are all good teams and winning in the NFL is hard.

No matter what you say, no matter how overconfident you are, if you make the playoffs then your best chance to advance to the second round is to not have to play that first round game in the first place.

I notice you left out “grueling week of practice AND A GAME.” Yeah practice would probably be light on contact - but the game sure as hell won’t be.

If the goal of the playoffs is to reach the divisional round, then you are certainly correct in your analysis.

 

[XLIX]

If the goal of the playoffs is to reach the divisional round, then you are certainly correct in your analysis.

The goal of the playoffs is to win the Super Bowl.

Reaching the divisional round is a necessary component thereof. It is not something that can be avoided or short circuited.

As such, anyone with an ounce of logic would want the easiest path to the divisional round. For any playoff team, the easiest path to the divisional round is to simply not have to play WC weekend.

 

[mgteich]

The goal of the playoffs is to win the Super Bowl.

Reaching the divisional round is a necessary component thereof. It is not something that can be avoided or short circuited.

As such, anyone with an ounce of logic would want the easiest path to the divisional round. For any playoff team, the easiest path to the divisional round is to simply not have to play WC weekend.

So, for you, the best preparation for the Championship Game and the Super Bowl is to not play.

We have the argument every year. By your logic, if there is no change in seeding to play for, all the starters should simply be sideline cheerleaders. Many agree with you and some think that anyone who disagrees doesn't have an ounce of logic.

 

[XLIX]

So, for you, the best preparation for the Championship Game and the Super Bowl is to not play.

As noted above, the goal of the playoffs is to win the Super Bowl.

If we were given the choice right now to skip the AFC playoffs and go straight to the Super Bowl then we would be absolute morons to say "no, really... we'd rather have to play 3 games against the best of the best with the knowledge that we have to win all 3 of those games or else the season is over."

Have fun rooting for the Dolphins today.

 

[mgteich]

.

Have fun rooting for the Dolphins today.

As you have said, sometimes a poster's comment has no logic behind them at all.

 

[NFL Mystique]

I liked it the way they had it. 6 teams per conference make the postseason. Top two seeds in each conference get a bye. The number one seed gets HFA throughout.

 

[XLIX]

I liked it the way they had it. 6 teams per conference make the postseason. Top two seeds in each conference get a bye. The number one seed gets HFA throughout.

I agree 100%. The 6-team per conference format was ideal.

And no one was ridiculous enough to suggest a team was better off without the bye than they'd be with it.

 

[Triumph]

1 Denver

There are always upsets in the Wildcard round.

2 Pats - 2 vs 7 LAC = Pats
3 Jags - 3 vs 6 Bills = Bills
4 Ravens or Pitt 4 vs 5 Texans = Texans

5 Texans
6 Bills
7 LAC