One more try: 4/19 2 round mock

[mayoclinic]

You either have William Moore going twice at 45 and 49 or Alphonso Smith going twice at 48 and 49. So which one is the clone?

PS Zero safeties for the Pats in this year's draft? If Sean Smith lasts that long, I'd draft him instead of harvin and see what kind of saftey he could be. At 6'3, it's gonna be tough to get the ball over him if he's protecting the middle of the field.

Neither. I had William Moore at 45, Alphonso Smith at 48, and DJ Moore at 49. At one point I had Alphonso Smith at 49 and forgot to change the name.

If we draft Malcolm Jenkins in the 1st round then I don't see us drafting Sean Smith as well. I think it's one or the other at most. Jenkins could play both CB and FS, which is part of why I didn't keep another safety. The one I like is Louis Delmas (who I think would play SS for us), but in this mock he was gone to Cleveland at 36, and with Jenkins in the 1st I wasn't going to go DB with the first 2 picks.

A variant of this draft would look something like this:

18 - Andre Smith, OT (trade up for him if he falls; BJ Raji could also be here, but I can't see him falling to 18)
34 - Barwin
47 - Gilbert
51 - trade up to get Sean Smith, CB/S

I'm not sure Smith would fit the Pats style and he has major character issues (more immaturity than anything else), but he is probably a top 5 talent, and if he fell and the Pats liked him (they had him in for a visit, and will certainly have talked extensively with Nick Saban) then it would make sense. My problem is I can't see him getting past Buffalo at #11.

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

Hey Mayo - nice work here, thanks a lot for sharing.

I find it very interesting to watch your thinking/attitude towards different players change, best example of this being Malcolm Jenkins - especially from your original Top 50 Big Board.

What is it that you've seen or thought about that made you reconsider him to the degree that you'd predict BB would actually trade up to snag this guy? I know you're seeing him as a safer pick - does this indicate that you think Jenkins might be the last of the very tip top 1st round talent left, and the rest of the players left to take by standing pat at #23 would essentially be reaches at that draft spot? If Jenkins were to be taken off the board earlier than anticipated, would you see the Patriots maybe trading back for more 2nd rounders and/or into 2010 instead of picking someone they're not "first round" crazy over at 23?

I for one am hoping to see Robert Ayers. I also hope that if Curry were to drop to the 8-10 postion, that BB consider moving way up to grab him (if Curry grades highly on the Patriot's board) -- I just feel that if you could land a major player at a position of need (just like Mayo), then it's worth spending the draft pick capital to do it, instead of picking guys who may (Asante Samuel) or may not (Chad Jackson) pan out later on.

 

[mayoclinic]

Hey Mayo - nice work here, thanks a lot for sharing.

I find it very interesting to watch your thinking/attitude towards different players change, best example of this being Malcolm Jenkins - especially from your original Top 50 Big Board.

What is it that you've seen or thought about that made you reconsider him to the degree that you'd predict BB would actually trade up to snag this guy? I know you're seeing him as a safer pick - does this indicate that you think Jenkins might be the last of the very tip top 1st round talent left, and the rest of the players left to take by standing pat at #23 would essentially be reaches at that draft spot? If Jenkins were to be taken off the board earlier than anticipated, would you see the Patriots maybe trading back for more 2nd rounders and/or into 2010 instead of picking someone they're not "first round" crazy over at 23?

I for one am hoping to see Robert Ayers. I also hope that if Curry were to drop to the 8-10 postion, that BB consider moving way up to grab him (if Curry grades highly on the Patriot's board) -- I just feel that if you could land a major player at a position of need (just like Mayo), then it's worth spending the draft pick capital to do it, instead of picking guys who may (Asante Samuel) or may not (Chad Jackson) pan out later on.

Very good point. I was wondering when someone was going to call me out on that.

I talked about my shift on Jenkins a bit in another thread. For a long time he wasn't really someone I thought about a lot because I assumed he would go top 10. Then, by the time his 40 time started to erode his draft status, we had signed Bodden and Springs and the CB position seemed less of a need.

But the more I thought about Jenkins, the more I like him. His 40 time is pedestrian but he is a very smart CB who uses his physical skills well. He has a blazing short shuttle and 3-cone time, suggesting terrific agility. He has versatility at FS in case he doesn't work out at CB, though I think that a big CB rotation of Jenkins and Leigh Bodden could by dynamite. He's a very high character guy with no flaws, and less ego than almost any top CB prospect. And a lot of people on this board kept emphasizing the desire to use the first round pick on a "safe" prospect who could contribute day 1. Jenkins could come in at FS day 1 opposite Meriweather and upgrade our secondary, and move between CB and S his first year.

On my original draft board I clearly put Jenkins too low. That was in part because of his slow 40 time and bot being sure he could play CB for us, and partly just plain stupidity on my part. I've since moved him up to around #5. If I compare Sean Smith and Jenkins, Smith has a bit more size and perhaps more upside, but Jenkins is much more NFL ready and safer.

Andre Smith is another guy I'm rethinking, as most of his issues are maturity rather than bad character. He has top 5 talent. His 6'4" height is the same as Matt Light, and he has really long arms. Other than his weight and immaturity, there's a lot to like. The Pats brought him in for a visit.

 

[tanked_as_usual]

I don't see the pats moving up for jenkins.....why would they do that at 17 when none of the teams between there and #23 are projecting to take a DB?

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

Thanks for the reply... I wasn't trying to call you out or anything though -- I just think it's all fun and games and was just wondering what had helped you change your mind.

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

I don't see the pats moving up for jenkins.....why would they do that at 17 when none of the teams between there and #23 are projecting to take a DB?

I think it's already somewhere in this thread that Mayo thinks the Bucs would take Jenkins.

 

[mayoclinic]

Thanks for the reply... I wasn't trying to call you out or anything though -- I just think it's all fun and games and was just wondering what had helped you change your mind.

Call out all you want. It's part of the fun of the board. Sometimes I go back and look at what I wrote and wonder WTH I was thinking.

 

[mayoclinic]

I think it's already somewhere in this thread that Mayo thinks the Bucs would take Jenkins.

I think Tampa, Detroit and Minny could all take Jenkins, so a small trade up is not entirely unreasonable if BB wanted him. Denver at 18 could go for Jenkins, but they could also be a trade partner.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Neither. I had William Moore at 45, Alphonso Smith at 48, and DJ Moore at 49. At one point I had Alphonso Smith at 49 and forgot to change the name.

If that's the case, you might want to go back and fix your typos then.

 

[tanked_as_usual]

I think Tampa, Detroit and Minny could all take Jenkins, so a small trade up is not entirely unreasonable if BB wanted him. Denver at 18 could go for Jenkins, but they could also be a trade partner.

possible, but all 3 have bigger needs along the DL, and if detroit takes stafford, they will most likely go with OL with their next pick......

tampa would be the most likely of the bunch, but with a new DC who is planning on a scheme change, they have a bigger need for a DT like jerry or they could be in play for making a move for josh freeman who has a connection to the new head coach.......

but if they do take jenkins, that's fine.....I just don't see him as a good value to move up for for the pats

 

[mgteich]

I don't think a trade of a 1st or 2nd into 2010 is unrealistic, just ill-advised.

The patriots have one of the best postions ever in one of the best drafts ever, and there is a need to develop players for 2010 when there will be limited opportunities to sign free agents.

If we must trade our annual pick into the future, I have nominated pick 89. However, there are much better uses for the pick.

In some of my previous mocks I've suggested a trade into 2010 - and, as I recall, gotten panned for it as being unrealistic.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I don't think a trade of a 1st or 2nd into 2010 is unrealistic, just ill-advised.

The patriots have one of the best postions ever in one of the best drafts ever, and there is a need to develop players for 2010 when there will be limited opportunities to sign free agents.

Here's the rub, though—if the Pats use the pick now, they have to cut another player to make room. If they wait until next year, that's a hole they may have to fill anyways.

I don't think there's a definitive right answer here: there's a logical argument to be made for trading a pick into 2010, and a logical case for using all the picks this year. My guess is they're not going to actively seek trades ("Hey KC . . . want #34 back?"), but they will listen to offers, and given four first-day picks, you know some teams are going to be calling.

 

[bakes781]

- Cincinnati trades Chad "Ocho Cinco" Johnson to St. Louis for #35

And to think they could've had two 1st round picks from Washington just a year ago!

 

[mgteich]

The critical players that you are concerned about (those at the bottom of the roster currently with a likely roster spot) are listed below. There are none that I would not hope to upgrade in this draft to develop for 2010 and beyond. I would much rather that any of them be upgraded this year, in a better draft, rather than in next.

QB Gutierrez
RB Green-Ellis
TE Thomas
OG Yates
OT O'Callaghan/Britt
OT LeVoir
DL Smith
OLB Redd
ILB Ruud
DB Spann
DB Williams

Here's the rub, though—if the Pats use the pick now, they have to cut another player to make room. If they wait until next year, that's a hole they may have to fill anyways.

I don't think there's a definitive right answer here: there's a logical argument to be made for trading a pick into 2010, and a logical case for using all the picks this year. My guess is they're not going to actively seek trades ("Hey KC . . . want #34 back?"), but they will listen to offers, and given four first-day picks, you know some teams are going to be calling.

 

[mayoclinic]

The critical players that you are concerned about (those at the bottom of the roster currently with a likely roster spot) are listed below. There are none that I would not hope to upgrade in this draft to develop for 2010 and beyond. I would much rather that any of them be upgraded this year, in a better draft, rather than in next.

QB Gutierrez
RB Green-Ellis
TE Thomas
OG Yates
OT O'Callaghan/Britt
OT LeVoir
DL Smith
OLB Redd
ILB Ruud
DB Spann
DB Williams

Good list. Of those, the two I am highest on for the long term are LeVoir (who looked very good last year) and Vince Redd (who has intriguing athleticism and long-term potential). Id be happy to see the others upgraded though.

 

[jays52]

Smith also performed very well filling in for Warren.

 

[mgteich]

I suppose Redd can make the team if our developmental OLB has another role on the team, and thus saves a roster spot. He might also beat out Banta-Cain, but that is unlikely. Finally, he can make the team if Thomas moves over to ILB and supports Woods, Banta-Cain, Crable and the draftee OLB (but this OLB would be taking lots of reps).

Good list. Of those, the two I am highest on for the long term are LeVoir (who looked very good last year) and Vince Redd (who has intriguing athleticism and long-term potential). Id be happy to see the others upgraded though.

 

[carolinatony]

Good job Mayo and I like some of your trades. There will be 3/4 for sure in the first round this year.
I am also not on the Harvin bandwagon but who knows.

 

[WhiZa]

Good mock. All the trades blow my mind, but quite possible.

I don't get trading Edwards for the #29. Wasn't he the 3rd pick in the draft? It's not like he hasn't played up to that level. He is worth a higher pick. (#23? )

 

[mayoclinic]

Good mock. All the trades blow my mind, but quite possible.

I don't get trading Edwards for the #29. Wasn't he the 3rd pick in the draft? It's not like he hasn't played up to that level. He is worth a higher pick. (#23? )

Edwards was the #3 pick in 2005. He had a good 2007 but a mediocre 2008 with a lot of dropped balls.

Mangini seems determined to clean house and start fresh. Kellen Winslow Jr. was the #6 pick in 2004 and was traded to TB for only #50, so getting a 1st round pick seemed reasonable. I've heard rumors Cleveland may take as little as a 2nd and a 5th.