[Old 2020 thread] NFL Free Agency/Trade Rumors:

[RobertWeathers]

This, times 1000. I am completely amazed at the complete stupidity of people, on this board and in social media/mainstream media who blame Belichick for not “keeping” Brady. The Pats had like a dollar sixty five in cap space when Brady signed with the Bucs. It’s not like they were able to miraculously come up with 25 mill in cap space to sign him at that moment. Can’t create cap space out of thin air.

Can’t believe people don’t understand that. For Christ’s sake, I’m not Einstein and I understood it.

You have 3 groups of people who maintain the position of "BB could have kept Brady"

1) They think any amount of cap space can be created in a year without a) losing players or b) using future year cap space. This means they don't understand cap management or acknowledge it and subsequently believe every team can keep everyone and there aren't any future repercussions.

2) They believe Bill should have done everything to make Tom happy financially. The fault in this position is they fail to acknowledge money was one of the issues Tom had with the Patriots and there were multiple.

3) They just want to argue and the whole "cap is crap" position. From this crowd you always hear, "Yea but they could do this or that", and to support their argument can create an endless number of financial models/scenarios to support their argument.

The real question was did BB WANT Tom here and did Tom WANT to stay and we've had that answer for almost an entire year.

 

[Sicilian]

Are we saying that Thuney was more important to the team than Brady?

I think you might be reading into my post a little too far. My point is not they chose Thuney over Brady, it's that Brady wanted both the money AND assurances that the team was going to bolster the talent around him, and he couldn't get both in NE. I don't see a way they could have kept Brady and improved the talent that was around him in 2019. But we're getting back into hashing out the how's and the why's of Brady's departure, which have been discussed ad nauseum. My point was, they did not have $25m of cap space to "just sign Brady", without having significant cap consequences that would have made Brady even more disgruntled at his supporting cast.

 

[Ring 6]

"Now" is the optimal word.

If you think he's worth it, that's fine. I respect your opinion to believe that way.

Why is now the “optimal” word?

You can’t have and keep a top qb if you don’t accept what they cost today expect to pay them money they won’t accept.

It just makes no sense to me to approach a situation like this:

I am taking over a team that had a bad year after a few decent ones. When I look at it I see one huge positive and thankfully it’s a young player at the most important position under a long term contract. The offense was decent but inconsistent and the defense was god awful after having been a strength and still has some pieces to build around. 8 if the 12 losses were by 1 score.
So here’s my plan. Let’s get rid of the one good thing we have so we can build a team without it’s most important part then spend years being a bad team because we can’t find a qb.
It just makes no sense. If you feel you don’t want to invest in an immature player who took his ball, went home and is holding his breath and kicking his feet and refusing to communicate with his employer 4 months after signing an enormous contract, that is arguable, but as the best strategy to build a franchise from a football persoective, maturity issues aside, it makes no sense.

 

[upstater1]

Unfortunately for you, your thinking is dreadfully wrong.

Huh? Why would it be unfortunate for me? What does that even mean? And are you saying I'm wrong to think that a coach about to be fired while the franchise is melting down will have a dreadful impact on the field of play?

 

[Ring 6]

You have 3 groups of people who maintain the position of "BB could have kept Brady"

1) They think any amount of cap space can be created in a year without a) losing players or b) using future year cap space. This means they don't understand cap management or acknowledge it and subsequently believe every team can keep everyone and there aren't any future repercussions.

2) They believe Bill should have done everything to make Tom happy financially. The fault in this position is they fail to acknowledge money was one of the issues Tom had with the Patriots and there were multiple.

3) They just want to argue and the whole "cap is crap" position is viewed as this nebulous, From this crowd you always hear, "Yea but they could do this or that", and to support their argument can create and endless number of financial models/scenarios to support their argument.

The real question is.....Did BB really WANT Tom here and did Tom WANT to stay.

There is a 4th angle.

The end will come, the 42 year old looked awful the second half of last year, due to injury but smart money says injured 43 year olds don’t improve, you don’t have the cap room to keep him and fill the needs you also have that must be filled to be a contender, he’ll you don’t have it even if he leaves. You will have franchise changing cap room next year to rebuild, but if the 42 year old injured qb is not improved at 44 you are paying him 30 mill out of that reboot and he is likely to be beyond the days he can win.
So the reason to keep him is emotional.

Ultimately the patriots were not going to be a better team in 2020 than 2019. The cap guaranteed that. They lost key players and had no cap space to replace them with. If Brady stayed thuney and McCourty wouldn’t have been able to and no additions could be made. There was going to be a day when Brady won’t be able to, healthy enough or good enough to keep playing. No one in the league was willing to say that was later than 2021. Regardless of what brady did in Tampa (because the patriots franchise has to be about what is best for itself not the optics of who wins when they leave) the choice was bring him back for 2 years knowing 2020 was a damaged season a s 2021 was the cap bonanza, but Brady is 44.
There are very strong arguments that Brady choosing to leave is the best thing in the long run for the patriots.

 

[upstater1]

I could be wrong, but weren't they $25m under the cap AFTER all the opt outs (which included Hightower at 10+)? At the time Brady made his decision, the Patriots were definitely NOT $25m under. Hell, they weren't even there a few weeks before camp when they signed Cam to $1m plus incentives. Players opted out between then and camp if I remember correctly.

Whatever moves the Pats could have made to keep Brady is one thing, but they didn't have the space to just keep him without additional moves, some of which may have cost them players, not added them.

They did have the space. A 2 year deal would've made it even easier, but I went through the whole cap space deal and before the opt outs it wouldn't have taken much to cut a few players who weren't adding much. We also took on an additional $10m+ in new contracts after Brady left, and those players didn't help. It was actually quite easily done.

 

[upstater1]

This, times 1000. I am completely amazed at the complete stupidity of people, on this board and in social media/mainstream media who blame Belichick for not “keeping” Brady. The Pats had like a dollar sixty five in cap space when Brady signed with the Bucs. It’s not like they were able to miraculously come up with 25 mill in cap space to sign him at that moment. Can’t create cap space out of thin air.

Can’t believe people don’t understand that. For Christ’s sake, I’m not Einstein and I understood it.

Huh? They offered him a contract!!!!

 

[patsfanincleveland]

Why is now the “optimal” word?

You can’t have and keep a top qb if you don’t accept what they cost today expect to pay them money they won’t accept.

It just makes no sense to me to approach a situation like this:

I am taking over a team that had a bad year after a few decent ones. When I look at it I see one huge positive and thankfully it’s a young player at the most important position under a long term contract. The offense was decent but inconsistent and the defense was god awful after having been a strength and still has some pieces to build around. 8 if the 12 losses were by 1 score.
So here’s my plan. Let’s get rid of the one good thing we have so we can build a team without it’s most important part then spend years being a bad team because we can’t find a qb.
It just makes no sense. If you feel you don’t want to invest in an immature player who took his ball, went home and is holding his breath and kicking his feet and refusing to communicate with his employer 4 months after signing an enormous contract, that is arguable, but as the best strategy to build a franchise from a football persoective, maturity issues aside, it makes no sense.

You're actually a shrewd football evaluator so I have full confidence you would find another franchise QB without $42M CAP hits.

If you feel very comfortable with $40M+ CAP hits in $180M-$200M CAP ranges beyond 2021, then that's great, also.

I take solace in that.

Your evaluation of the player is way more favorable then mine. I respect that.

The Tunsil and Hopkins trades are a matter of debate for maybe another time.

 

[Ring 6]

I feel like there is another team that is in that same position but can't put my finger on it.

There are a lot. This is why you see 4th round talents being drafted in the 1st round every year because they are qbs.
1/3 of the league, at least, is on a cycle of an desperation that causes them to make one bad decision after another.

Look at Arizona.
They hire a new coach and draft a qb in round 1.
Then after 1 year they fire the coach, hire a college coach who was fired because he couldn’t win there, dump the win they drafted the year before in round 1 and draft another then go 5-10-1 and 8-8

 

[upstater1]

Just as an FYI to people saying we didn't have the cap space, the Patriots could've dumped or not signed players like Cannon, Phillips, Allen, Bolden, Spence, and several others, to save $16m (yes, I'm counting dead money). The next moves would be to extend Brady, Hightower and Gilmore. You don't need to pay Brady $25m up front. You can average it there over 3 years even if he's only going to play for 2 more. Same with Hightower and Gilmore. So before the opt outs, we had enough to keep Brady AND Thuney without losing a single player who helped us last year other than Adrian Phillips (who wasn't even integral).

 

[patsfanincleveland]

Huh? Why would it be unfortunate for me? What does that even mean? And are you saying I'm wrong to think that a coach about to be fired while the franchise is melting down will have a dreadful impact on the field of play?

Notice my "incleveland". The Browns were actually do very well up until the time the move was announced. NFL Network has a show on that. Trust me, that situation was much more traumatic.

I had someone in my office still talking about that this morning. It had nothing to do with anybody melting down........the meltdown happened because of the move.

As far as Houston goes, bad play was not caused by the coach melting down. Bad play from mentally weak players caused the coach to melt down.

 

[venecol]

What I mean is that the free agent pool.will be more than 20% lower (on average) because most of the cap is already committed.
For example:

Team A has $120 million committed. If cap is $220 million they have $100 million to play with. If it’s $176 million the only have $56 million for a shopping spree.

That's all true but that doesn't mean some teams won't employ the same strategies of mortgaging the future by getting creative with contracts (kicking cap $$ downstream). Plus, won't the reverse be true next year (idk, asking) where the cap goes way up (assuming a regular season this year), making this just a 1-yr event?

 

[KDPPatsfan85]

 

[50-yard-line]

One thing to consider with a guy like Watson is where the cap will be after next year.

I don't know that there will be this remarkable rebound well into the 200's. The Superbowl was terribly rated.

Sports go in cycles; if the NFL is hitting a down cycle now, the cap could be more like:

2021: 180
2022: 200
2023: 210...

Just guessing here - I doubt it goes from 180 to 225 or something like that.

Which makes Watson's contract more like 20% of the damned cap! Good luck with that.

 

[Ring 6]

You're actually a shrewd football evaluator so I have full confidence you would find another franchise QB without $42M CAP hits.

If you feel very comfortable with $40M+ CAP hits in $180M-$200M CAP ranges beyond 2021, then that's great, also.

I take solace in that.

Your evaluation of the player is way more favorable then mine. I respect that.

The Tunsil and Hopkins trades are a matter of debate for maybe another time.

The trades were awful but don’t really have anything to do with this.

Finding a qb you can win with us a daunting task. 32 teams have been trying to draft that guy for years and maybe 10 have him
When you have him, you have to pay the market price. And Watson’s contract is the market price.
Sure there is an argument that qbs are overpriced. But that is only theoretical. They cost what they cost. Until you can show me teams that can consistently win with a an no one else wants to pay, it’s simply the cost of doing business.

Ultimately when Watson’s cap number is 40 mill a mediocre QB who if he is your QB you are looking to replace so you can win will cost 25 mill.
I’ll take a top few qb and skrimp for 15 mill by having a few more rookies for depth than veterans or backloading a contract or 2 that I would prefer not to, than sit around losing and bragging that I only pay my crappy qb 25 mill

 

[Ring 6]

I would have made that trade in a heartbeat for the Patriots. Then I would have drafted a an also. Then I would have spent the 40-60 mill I had left to upgrade around them.
That is assuming I couldn’t make a similar trade for someone I like better than wentz.
If the bar was a 3 and 2 for wentz we damn well better end up with something better than wentz

 

[Love The Drake]

Wow kinda wish we made this deal.

 

[ScottishPatriots]

That's a very good deal for Indianapolis, really buying low and if still Reich believes in him then then i still do, nobody knows him better.

 

[DaBruinz]

Unfortunately for you, your thinking is dreadfully wrong.

Oh really? Why don't you be a bit more expansive on why he is "dreadfully wrong" in regards to what happened to BB in Cleveland..

 

[Zarozzor]

And here they were asking for 2 1st Round Picks for Wentz.