OLB Prospects Anonymized

[MaineMan]

This is not a "test", just an exercise. Here are three potential OLBs for the Pats available in this draft. All are within a few lbs and within an inch or so of BB's nominal height/weight requirements. In no particular order:

- one is a guy who's received only nominal respect from analysts and is now projected to go in the 3rd
- one is considered a potential "elite" pass-rusher who we may have to trade up in the 1st to get
- one is often, but not unanimously, evaluated as a potentially very good pass rusher and decent all around player who is now projected to go in the late 1st, but possibly the early 2nd

Without looking anything up (NO CHEATING!)...
(1) pick which one you'd draft where based on the numbers below and the projections above
(2) choose which one would appear to present the best value
(3) finally, try to guess who's who

The first grid below is obviously their Combine numbers.
The second grid represents their average annual production for years in which they started.

...........speed....1st-step.......upper-str...lower-str.....footwork....agility
Player.....40-yd.....10-yd....VERT...Bench.....Broad Jump...20-Shuttle...3-cone
A ..........4.62......1.61....34.0"....22..........9'08"........4.40 ......7.13
B ..........4.68......1.59....31.0"....NA..........9'07"........4.65 ......7.34
C ..........4.68......1.66....33.5"....23..........9'04"........4.32.......6.69

A -------- 52 TT - 19 TFL - 11.0 sk - 12 QBH -- 3 PD -- 6 FF
B -------- 46 TT - 12 TFL -- 6.5 sk - 13 QBH -- 5 PD -- 2 FF
C -------- 65 TT - 15 TFL -- 9.0 sk - 10 QBH -- 3 PD -- 4 FF

I fully agree that tape means way more than these numbers. I'm only presenting this as an exercise to see how people MAY make distinctions based on numbers alone. Of course, for those of you who feel you have accurately guessed who these players are, you may certainly factor what else you know about them into your choices.

I'll reveal the identities Monday afternoon.

 

[ZoisKing]

I'm going to go with the guess who's who.

Player A-Robert Quinn
Player B-Brooks Reed
Player C-Jabaal Sheard

I'm expecting to get all three right. I'm a stats man at heart, and have evaluated all the potential OLB guys time after time.

Now to see if I'm right

 

[Sciz]

I feel like this is awfully useless without having weight (and height) as well as the numbers given.

 

[Peachhead]

I don't think any of them are Brooks Reed. I seem to recall his broad jump was better than any of those numbers. His short-shuttle too. Although B looks about right for Reed's production, 40 time and 10 yd split, but too slow on the agility numbers.

I'm pretty confident A is Von Miller. Judging mostly from the production.

Just as a wild guess I'd say C is Sam Acho.

Sorry, but I can't make any judgments about who I'd take or their value without seeing tape.

 

[LuthierJr]

I like production numbers more than the combine numbers, but it's still hard to know because we don't know the competition they were going against. Assuming they were all going against top tier competition I'd like A, and C.

 

[serifyn]

BB will address the OLB enigma with a 2nd or 3rd rounder on a prospect from a program he has connections with, if he addresses the situation at all.

the patriots can still build a great defense without directly addressing the elephant in the room....or elephant LB not in the room....sorry.

i can promise you this, the patriots will not be taking any risks on a OLB prospect which limited experience at the position early on.

you can throw your Kerrigans, Quinns and Smiths out the window, if a OLB they liked was at 28, i think that would still be a bit too rich for the patriots, unless it was the perfect storm of experience, mold and familiarity.

 

[supafly]

BB will address the OLB enigma with a 2nd or 3rd rounder on a prospect from a program he has connections with, if he addresses the situation at all.

the patriots can still build a great defense without directly addressing the elephant in the room....or elephant LB not in the room....sorry.

i can promise you this, the patriots will not be taking any risks on a OLB prospect which limited experience at the position early on.

you can throw your Kerrigans, Quinns and Smiths out the window, if a OLB they liked was at 28, i think that would still be a bit too rich for the patriots, unless it was the perfect storm of experience, mold and familiarity.

I agree entirely.

 

[manxman2601]

A) Von Miller
B) Brooks Reed
C) Sam Acho

I'm fairly confident C is Acho, which begs the question, what is the knock on Acho that has him seen as late second, early third?

 

[supafly]

A) Von Miller
B) Brooks Reed
C) Sam Acho

I'm fairly confident C is Acho, which begs the question, what is the knock on Acho that has him seen as late second, early third?

I asked the same question a while back, it seems that many perceive him as a better ILB--although maybe it was just in this system. I really can't remember all of the thoughts, as I will easily admit that I don't 'know' him as good as some others.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I asked the same question a while back, it seems that many perceive him as a better ILB--although maybe it was just in this system. I really can't remember all of the thoughts, as I will easily admit that I don't 'know' him as good as some others.

Gesundheit! Oh, the Texas kid - he failed to impress my lying eyes viewing him on TV tape. His stats are good, his athleticism at the Combine stands out, but watching him head to head with blockers on my TV screen ... meh.

 

[MaineMan]

Gesundheit! Oh, the Texas kid - he failed to impress my lying eyes viewing him on TV tape. His stats are good, his athleticism at the Combine stands out, but watching him head to head with blockers on my TV screen ... meh.

At long last!

 

[WaterfallJumper]

It's Quinn, Sheard, and Acho. Based purely on numbers and reputation, I'd go with Acho (he is definitely the value pick), but like Box mentioned, his game tape is a bit . . . baffling. I don't honestly know that he offers anything we don't have already in Ninkovich and TBC. I like him a lot, especially as a high-character player who will work hard and keep his teammates accountable, but I don't know if he's part of that puzzle-piece that helps us solve the pass rush issue.

 

[bucky]

MaineMan,

the only thing this information could be useful for is to identify whether (a) the prospects are clean, and (b) identify any red flags in athleticism. Having said that, the only thing I can make out from these numbers is that all 3 players are "clean" from a speed perspective, but Player B's lateral mobility numbers (the 2 shuttles) don't correlate to his straight line speed - therefore, he may have issues adjusting to playing in space.

 

[crowell33]

FYI...........your "B" Player is clearly Sheard. He is the only player at the combine to run a 4.68 40yard dash, pass on the bench press and jump a 31" vertical. However he had 9 sacks and 14.5 TFL not the 6.5 sacks and 12 TFL that you listed. Something doesn't jive.

 

[MaineMan]

MaineMan,

the only thing this information could be useful for is to identify whether (a) the prospects are clean, and (b) identify any red flags in athleticism. Having said that, the only thing I can make out from these numbers is that all 3 players are "clean" from a speed perspective, but Player B's lateral mobility numbers (the 2 shuttles) don't correlate to his straight line speed - therefore, he may have issues adjusting to playing in space.

Wait. You thought this was intended to be USEFUL?!

Seriously, though, that's about what I got from "B's" numbers, too.

 

[MaineMan]

FYI...........your "B" Player is clearly Sheard. He is the only player at the combine to run a 4.68 40yard dash, pass on the bench press and jump a 31" vertical. However he had 9 sacks and 14.5 TFL not the 6.5 sacks and 12 TFL that you listed. Something doesn't jive.

Those are intended to be averages of three years starting, not just last year.

But, yes, it was late and I could have "Sheened" the math.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Conner Barwin?

 

[MaineMan]

It's Quinn, Sheard, and Acho. Based purely on numbers and reputation, I'd go with Acho (he is definitely the value pick), but like Box mentioned, his game tape is a bit . . . baffling. I don't honestly know that he offers anything we don't have already in Ninkovich and TBC. I like him a lot, especially as a high-character player who will work hard and keep his teammates accountable, but I don't know if he's part of that puzzle-piece that helps us solve the pass rush issue.

I see Acho as potentially a sort of third copy of Ninkovich and Cunningham who could replace either perhaps for an extended time, not as a one-man solution to the "pass-rush issue." To me, that's where Sheard and a couple of other guys whose names are regularly mentioned also fit. The point being that (IMHO) Acho would be relatively cheap, almost certainly no worse than Ninko/Cunningham at the "non-rush" aspects of OLB, and perhaps having some potential to develop a better pass-rush in BB's scheme. And have I mentioned that he'd be relatively cheap?

Anyway, I'm not one who believes that there IS a one-man solution to the pass-rush in this scheme, certainly not from one edge-rusher. A DL that is stouter against the run, thus constraining the effectiveness of opposition play-action, and that can get better pressure up the middle to disrupt even short drops of opposing QBs, would go a long way toward enhancing the opportunities and success of Ninko, Cunningham, Moore, TBC, Acho (or whoever) coming off the edge.

 

[borg]

1...Quinn
2...Sheard
3...Acho

 

[MaineMan]

Well! Lookee here! It's after NOON!

First of all, I have to say that this was intended to be relatively frivolous with a side order of, "Oh! That's interesting!" but way too many of you are so annoyingly well-versed in the stats of prospects that I'm afraid that this BIG REVEAL is going to be a BIG LETDOWN.:cry2:

So, without further ado .............

Player A = Quinn
Player B = Sheard
Player C = Acho

For those of you who may be wondering, "So, what was the point?! ", I did have it written down, but the cat barfed all over it and I am NOT going to touch that now.