PostGame Thread OFFICIAL POSTGAME THREAD: Patriots Beat Titans 31-13

[VrabelJr]

Daniel Jones’ success is not that hard to understand

- Fantastic OL
- Great RB
- A ton of big bodied WRs

Stop the run and put the Colts into 3rd and long situations and you can have New York Giants Jones again.

 

[n1997y]

I got this really interesting feed on my MSN browser today. It put out the supposition that using that top pick to find your QB of the future to turn your team's fortunes around, almost NEVER works out for the team who did the drafting. And then they started to go down the list of QB's. Although some have turned out to be great QB's (like Goff, Darnald, and Stafford) it's never for the team that drafted them and then they went to name a number of guys who have flourished for other teams.

Interestingly they even include CWilliams, JDaniels, Nix, and Pennix, saying the they are not sure things and point out stats and ratings for all of them that are pretty mediocre even though their teams are currently above .500. Like barely 60% passing completion rates for them all and rating in the 20's for passing efficiency.

There is one exception of course and he is never mentioned in the article because he is clearly the exception that proves the rule. Drake Make. HE is the reason along with guys like Manning, Luck, Elway that teams waste all those high picks hoping that it brings them a guy that turns their fortunes around. I didn't realize just how rarely it actually turns to work out.

BTW TJ Stroud LOOKED to be one too, (he has TWO playoff wins to his credit) but this year he's looked very ordinary this year and last night he looked just bad. It should be a cautionary tale for us. Your QB is only going to be as good and the people you put around him, both players and coaches. And the seeming greatness we are seeing NOW has no guarantees for the future. The Texans screwed around with their OL and Stroud is paying the price and it looked ugly last night.

Good points. As usual for you.

I think there’s a strong bias against success for QBs picked early in the draft, because teams picking early in the draft are the worst of the worst.

They are generally in need of many more upgrades than just QB. They are often in such a shambles it has taken years of team effort to get so bad. Frequently the real problem is their front office and coaching staff.

As a result a good QB is far less likely to make a significant impact on their performance than they are to impact his performance.

At least that’s the way it looks to me. Great recipe for leveling the playing field by keeping anyone from getting to be too good. Not a great recipe for improving performance and developing excellence.

 

[Real fan 02]

That story aged well. August 7. Even before preseason. Waste of a post.

Key quote from that early August article: "If the 2025 season continues to provide mediocre production, it could lead the Indy brass to blow the entire operation up,"

How many are arguing today the the 2025 season looks to be providing mediocre production?

Your right was just something posted regarding a earlier point prior to indy having the success they are having. But good points by you N..

 

[Real fan 02]

As many of us forget, the MVP is awarded after many, many more games.

I'd have him as #2 in the MVP race at this point.

Oh ok so not Taylor? Wow! But not mat Stafford who's 17TD lead the league right..

 

[Real fan 02]

He's the QB of a team that's winning.

It's eerily similar to Minnesota last year, with Darnold (except Darnold was always a better prospect than Jones, not really close).

Good comparison.. I'd really like to get a poster like yourself take on jones.. because last I checked a 2nd year QB who had jerod rust for a coach and had to sit behind Jacoby Brissett.. last season and is taking the second year leap this season.. is also in the MVP conversation.. and his team has no formidable running game... Tannenhill was also on a team that went to an AFCCG...

 

[Bill Lee]

I got this really interesting feed on my MSN browser today. It put out the supposition that using that top pick to find your QB of the future to turn your team's fortunes around, almost NEVER works out for the team who did the drafting. And then they started to go down the list of QB's. Although some have turned out to be great QB's (like Goff, Darnald, and Stafford) it's never for the team that drafted them and then they went to name a number of guys who have flourished for other teams.

Interestingly they even include CWilliams, JDaniels, Nix, and Pennix, saying the they are not sure things and point out stats and ratings for all of them that are pretty mediocre even though their teams are currently above .500. Like barely 60% passing completion rates for them all and rating in the 20's for passing efficiency.

There is one exception of course and he is never mentioned in the article because he is clearly the exception that proves the rule. Drake Make. HE is the reason along with guys like Manning, Luck, Elway that teams waste all those high picks hoping that it brings them a guy that turns their fortunes around. I didn't realize just how rarely it actually turns to work out.

BTW TJ Stroud LOOKED to be one too, (he has TWO playoff wins to his credit) but this year he's looked very ordinary this year and last night he looked just bad. It should be a cautionary tale for us. Your QB is only going to be as good and the people you put around him, both players and coaches. And the seeming greatness we are seeing NOW has no guarantees for the future. The Texans screwed around with their OL and Stroud is paying the price and it looked ugly last night.

I think QB drafting is like the lottery, you gotta play to win. Keep buying tickets till one hits. This is a pretty common observation.

The less common observation I have is you have to 'fail fast'. Give a guy two seasons to prove himself. If he can't/doesn't, blow it all up and start all over again. The worst thing to do is to give a mediocre QB four seasons then be pressured into signing him to big money like you see with Tua Turndaballova and the LOLphins. Just good enough to have bad draft position for a few years, then you hit rock bottom like they are right now.

The problem is that the team's marketing department and the coaching staff invests so much in a QB and doesn't want to admit they made a mistake so they don't want to blow it all up. Also if they blow it up their own jobs become at risk. So in many cases you end up with long term mediocrity.

In an odd way the whole Cam Newton / Jerrod Stidham / Mac Jones / Bailey Zappe / Jacoby Brissette thing in hindsight was a good thing in that at no point did we decide these guys were good enough so we kept trying. Look at how long the Giants stuck with Daniel Jones. Turns out Jones wasn't the problem the Giants were, but the way that became obvious was that he moved on to another team. Now the Giants need to do what they should have done two years ago, blow it all up.

 

[Simpelton]

I got this really interesting feed on my MSN browser today. It put out the supposition that using that top pick to find your QB of the future to turn your team's fortunes around, almost NEVER works out for the team who did the drafting.

For teams that draft that QB and think the job is done, this is true.

The success stories are like what we did with Maye where we recognized that drafting the franchise QB was where the work BEGAN, not where it ended.

Teams that just dump a QB out there with a team that was good enough to compete for a first overall pick, having done little to no other work to upgrade the roster, can expect disaster.

What the Patriots did was immediately sell out to upgrade the run game and offensive line. We already had a pretty good defense, and we correctly targeted players that would turn the offense into a competitive unit, giving Maye people to throw to and people to protect him and roleplayers who can play their roles.

Ironically, as frustrating as it was to win the Milton game last year and lose the #1 overall pick, it showed us something important. It showed us that we were on the right track in rebuilding the offense and that we had some good bones to build on, even if they picked an inconvenient moment to be unexpectedly good. (I still think we'd have been smarter to keep Milton, I'd have had more faith in him as a backup than I have in the Passtronaut, but that's water under the bridge)

 

[Simpelton]

Daniel Jones’ success is not that hard to understand

- Fantastic OL
- Great RB
- A ton of big bodied WRs

Stop the run and put the Colts into 3rd and long situations and you can have New York Giants Jones again.

Stopping the run is easier said than done. People are still sleeping on Jonathan Taylor and I don't know why. If that cat is healthy, it's gonna be a lot easier to say "stop the run" than it will be to actually stop it.

The Cardinals, Rams, Chargers and Broncs all had good defenses and each of these teams knew that to beat the Colts they had to stop Taylor. None of them actually stopped him, not even the Rams, who mostly lucked into their win due to a boneheaded rookie doing boneheaded rookie things (seriously, Adonai Mitchell literally took 14 points off the scoreboard all by himself - there's a reason he's barely been on the field since then!).

 

[mgteich]

Oh ok so not Taylor? Wow! But not mat Stafford who's 17TD lead the league right..

the other top picks at the moment (for the bettors) is Mahomes, Allen and Goff.

Oh ok so not Taylor? Wow! But not mat Stafford who's 17TD lead the league right..

Taylor is on schedule to be the Offensive Player Of The Year
========
The MVP will almost surely go a QB. Mahomes, Allen, Goff and Mayfield are the betting favorites, with Maye starting to get more bets. I think that if Jones bring the colts to the title game, anything can happen in the voting.

I do expect that the MVP is likely to be one of the four QB's in the conference championships.

 

[mgteich]

Daniel Jones’ success is not that hard to understand

- Fantastic OL
- Great RB
- A ton of big bodied WRs

Stop the run and put the Colts into 3rd and long situations and you can have New York Giants Jones again.

ROFL
Surely, we all thought that the Colts would be one of the very best teams in the NFL. NOT!
Where were the colts projected to finish?

REALITY
Daniel Jones has been a welcome surprise to all fans of the colts.

 

[StockingAnarchyNumber12]

Hindsight is 20/20. More draft picks fail than succeed.

Yeah, I get blaming Bill for some **** but not drafting Mac itself. He took a shot, didn’t work out. It happens

 

[n1997y]

I think QB drafting is like the lottery, you gotta play to win. Keep buying tickets till one hits. This is a pretty common observation.

The less common observation I have is you have to 'fail fast'. Give a guy two seasons to prove himself. If he can't/doesn't, blow it all up and start all over again. The worst thing to do is to give a mediocre QB four seasons then be pressured into signing him to big money like you see with Tua Turndaballova and the LOLphins. Just good enough to have bad draft position for a few years, then you hit rock bottom like they are right now.

The problem is that the team's marketing department and the coaching staff invests so much in a QB and doesn't want to admit they made a mistake so they don't want to blow it all up. Also if they blow it up their own jobs become at risk. So in many cases you end up with long term mediocrity.

In an odd way the whole Cam Newton / Jerrod Stidham / Mac Jones / Bailey Zappe / Jacoby Brissette thing in hindsight was a good thing in that at no point did we decide these guys were good enough so we kept trying. Look at how long the Giants stuck with Daniel Jones. Turns out Jones wasn't the problem the Giants were, but the way that became obvious was that he moved on to another team. Now the Giants need to do what they should have done two years ago, blow it all up.

For teams that draft that QB and think the job is done, this is true.

The success stories are like what we did with Maye where we recognized that drafting the franchise QB was where the work BEGAN, not where it ended.

Teams that just dump a QB out there with a team that was good enough to compete for a first overall pick, having done little to no other work to upgrade the roster, can expect disaster.

What the Patriots did was immediately sell out to upgrade the run game and offensive line. We already had a pretty good defense, and we correctly targeted players that would turn the offense into a competitive unit, giving Maye people to throw to and people to protect him and roleplayers who can play their roles.

Ironically, as frustrating as it was to win the Milton game last year and lose the #1 overall pick, it showed us something important. It showed us that we were on the right track in rebuilding the offense and that we had some good bones to build on, even if they picked an inconvenient moment to be unexpectedly good. (I still think we'd have been smarter to keep Milton, I'd have had more faith in him as a backup than I have in the Passtronaut, but that's water under the bridge)

There’s the crux of the problem.

Too many teams are drafting QBs then failing fast at developing them.

It would be interesting to see an analysis of QB success vs how soon after being drafted they are starting games.

Intuitively I expect most teams drafting QBs in the top five are desperate and start them immediately, in the middle of a hot mess. That’s a recipe to fail fast, and reliably.

 

[Bill Lee]

For teams that draft that QB and think the job is done, this is true.

The success stories are like what we did with Maye where we recognized that drafting the franchise QB was where the work BEGAN, not where it ended.

Teams that just dump a QB out there with a team that was good enough to compete for a first overall pick, having done little to no other work to upgrade the roster, can expect disaster.

The only thing missing from your last sentence is "just like the Jets have experienced time and time again"....

 

[n1997y]

Duplicate post.

Where’s the delete button?

 

[Real fan 02]

I think QB drafting is like the lottery, you gotta play to win. Keep buying tickets till one hits. This is a pretty common observation.

The less common observation I have is you have to 'fail fast'. Give a guy two seasons to prove himself. If he can't/doesn't, blow it all up and start all over again. The worst thing to do is to give a mediocre QB four seasons then be pressured into signing him to big money like you see with Tua Turndaballova and the LOLphins. Just good enough to have bad draft position for a few years, then you hit rock bottom like they are right now.

The problem is that the team's marketing department and the coaching staff invests so much in a QB and doesn't want to admit they made a mistake so they don't want to blow it all up. Also if they blow it up their own jobs become at risk. So in many cases you end up with long term mediocrity.

In an odd way the whole Cam Newton / Jerrod Stidham / Mac Jones / Bailey Zappe / Jacoby Brissette thing in hindsight was a good thing in that at no point did we decide these guys were good enough so we kept trying. Look at how long the Giants stuck with Daniel Jones. Turns out Jones wasn't the problem the Giants were, but the way that became obvious was that he moved on to another team. Now the Giants need to do what they should have done two years ago, blow it all up.

It took them waste 100 million on a QB and watch the RB they drafted win a championship for them to get it..

 

[Ring 6]

There’s the crux of the problem.

Too many teams are drafting QBs then failing fast at developing them.

It would be interesting to see an analysis of QB success vs how soon after being drafted they are starting games.

Intuitively I expect most teams drafting QBs in the top five are desperate and start them immediately, in the middle of a hot mess. That’s a recipe to fail fast, and reliably.

I think a more interesting look would be who coached them.

 

[dliverey44]

As many of us forget, the MVP is awarded after many, many more games.

I'd have him as #2 in the MVP race at this point.

Since we are bringing up MVP candidates, I do not think Goff is getting anough MVP talk.

 

[Simpelton]

The only thing missing from your last sentence is "just like the Jets have experienced time and time again"....

I felt that was implied.

 

[Real fan 02]

Since we are bringing up MVP candidates, I do not think Goff is getting anough MVP talk.

Redirect Notice

 

[TommyD4207]

Good comparison.. I'd really like to get a poster like yourself take on jones.. because last I checked a 2nd year QB who had jerod rust for a coach and had to sit behind Jacoby Brissett.. last season and is taking the second year leap this season.. is also in the MVP conversation.. and his team has no formidable running game... Tannenhill was also on a team that went to an AFCCG...

Tannehill's not a bad comp, I'd say Jones has a better arm overall. He was like 2 rounds overdrafted at least, and is probably pretty close to his ceiling right now (Jones).

Which isn't bad.