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Those analytic numbers are deceiving in the sense that the 42% to win is IF folk makes the field goal and doesn’t factor in the probability of Folk making the FG. On the flip side same for if they make the 1st down which given down and distance and condition would be much higher than making a 56yd field goal in the rain for a guy that they rarely even allowed 40+ field goals to last season. The right decision analytically was to go for the first down
Folk wasn't kicking in a vacuum, he's an aging kicker not known for having a huge leg coming off an injury being asked to match his career best kick in the rain. Context makes it a bad gamble, not that any 4th down play is a sure thing by any stretch.
This was the first game of the year where the Pats operated like a real team instead of a collection of random players prone to self sabotage. This made them vastly more competitive, and more like what we're used to from Belichick's coaching in general. But they also had the same fundamental flaws, the biggest by far still being the play of the offensive line as a unit. They are flatly bad, the running was awful even compared to how teams usually do against the Bucs, and we have yet another game where Jones sometimes has to eat an unblocked kill shot just to get a quick pass off that should be routine.
That game reminded me of the Patriots loss to the Rams in their regular season game in 2001. It showed them they can compete with anyone. Great game plan defensively, Steven Belichick did a great job calling that game, and they played their asses off. Mac Jones ability to run their offense a month into his first is exceptional, he’s going to be a really good QB for a long time to come. I would have liked to see them go on 4th down, and agree with those who believe Brady would have gotten them into FG position with the 2 time outs they still had, I’m surprised Belichick had Folk try a career long in the rain. Great game overall, tough loss but this team is going to be good.
I think part of the reason Belichick kicked the ball is because it took pressure off Mac.
Sunday night, primetime home game. You're a rookie playing against your team's former GOAT. If Mac comes up short there, that's pretty tough on him.
I think Mac can handle that pressure and if it was a 61 yard field goal instead of a 56 yarder, I think Belichick goes for it. But given the circumstances and Folk having told Belichick he was good from 58 yards, the FG attempt was a reasonable decision to make.
This was the first game of the year where the Pats operated like a real team instead of a collection of random players prone to self sabotage. This made them vastly more competitive, and more like what we're used to from Belichick's coaching in general. But they also had the same fundamental flaws, the biggest by far still being the play of the offensive line as a unit. They are flatly bad, the running was awful even compared to how teams usually do against the Bucs, and we have yet another game where Jones sometimes has to eat an unblocked kill shot just to get a quick pass off that should be routine.
It was the case the first 3 games also. I didn’t really see a different offense tonight. They were more efficient in the RZ but otherwise it is the same kind of performance than against Miami for example. Still an offense that lives on the short quick throws. The only big play tonight we’re due to trickery
I thought we did what we could outside the turnovers. I liked Macs game fir its toughness more than anything. Areas of improvement for Mac: be more decisive on short throws, the check downs happen too late and you have a wide open Jonnu multiple times but you got laser vision. I know he’s a rookie. That’s why I said this is an area for improvement. Also, at the end of the game he rushed the snaps and didn’t need to. We had plenty of time. And he gave the Tampa D an advantage. It looked like we were on the road. Please tell me the Patriots fans weee smart enough to keep relatively quiet and that they weren’t causing our O to resort to just snapping it and going.
Not really. They were bad for both teams. The refs were basically the reason the Pats could attempt a 56 yards FG. If you talk about Judon being held, I saw plenty of hold to slow down Vea and Barrett that didn’t get called either. And in my opinion, Meyers was clearly a fumble. If we were on the opposite side of that call we would be fuming or at least i would
I think part of the reason Belichick kicked the ball is because it took pressure off Mac.
Sunday night, primetime home game. You're a rookie playing against your team's former GOAT. If Mac comes up short there, that's pretty tough on him.
I think Mac can handle that pressure and if it was a 61 yard field goal instead of a 56 yarder, I think Belichick goes for it. But given the circumstances and Folk having told Belichick he was good from 58 yards, the FG attempt was a reasonable decision to make.
It was the case the first 3 games also. I didn’t really see a different offense tonight. They were more efficient in the RZ but otherwise it is the same kind of performance than against Miami for example. Still an offense that lives on the short quick throws. The only big play tonight we’re due to trickery
I think they did a pretty good job of attacking the intermediate, middle of the field and short area. They aren't working downfield a ton, but the stuff they're doing is working well and is efficient. What really seems to be lacking (besides the OL play) is some outside shots down the sideline. They tried them against New Orleans, but perplexingly towards Lattimore.
If they can hit Agholor and Harry 20-40 yards downfield, outside the hashes, that's going to open up a ton of room for the RBs & TEs.
Not really. They were bad for both teams. The refs were basically the reason the Pats could attempt a 56 yards FG. If you talk about Judon being held, I saw plenty of hold to slow down Vea and Barrett that didn’t get called either. And in my opinion, Meyers was clearly a fumble. If we were on the opposite side of that call we would be fuming
I’m talking about the clips on the big Tampa runs, the constant holding by Tampa that wasn’t called, the invisible holds by Onwenu and hands to the face by Guy that were called, the non call on tripping that was obvious etc. the calls mostly hurt the Patriots and blew up drives.
A bit, but the only secondary as beat up as theirs that I can think of in recent memory was the 2004 Pats. 3 starting corners and a starting safety gone. That’s almost your entire starting Nickel defense.
I think part of the reason Belichick kicked the ball is because it took pressure off Mac.
Sunday night, primetime home game. You're a rookie playing against your team's former GOAT. If Mac comes up short there, that's pretty tough on him.
I think Mac can handle that pressure and if it was a 61 yard field goal instead of a 56 yarder, I think Belichick goes for it. But given the circumstances and Folk having told Belichick he was good from 58 yards, the FG attempt was a reasonable decision to make.
I’m talking about the clips on the big Tampa runs, the constant holding by Tampa that wasn’t called, the invisible holds by Onwenu and hands to the face by Guy that were called, the non call on tripping that was obvious etc. the calls mostly hurt the Patriots and blew up drives.
I'm not sure if you read the entirety of my post, but I made mention of Folk telling Belichick he was good from 58 in pregame (which seemed spot-on).
While I might've gone for it there, I don't have a huge issue with the kick. I have a hard time blaming Folk for missing, either. That would've been a historically good kick if he had made it.
Tough loss, but I'm proud of the team for their performance. Bounce of the ball another way and they probably win that - they certainly played well enough to deserve to win (and that's not to say that Tampa didn't - I just think New England played a really good game of football).
A bit, but the only secondary as beat up as theirs that I can think of in recent memory was the 2004 Pats. 3 starting corners and a starting safety gone. That’s almost your entire starting Nickel defense.
Most people thought we were going to get blown out last night. We were very competitive and didn't allow a td pass at all. Who would have thought that? There are some things to be optimistic about. Mac wasn't intimidated at all.
The Bucs looked rough at times last year. But I will say I am about as happy as you can be at 1-3. We not only have a QB who can play, but who is a leader. We will be fine (but we darn well better beat Houston).
