NFL News Official 2025 NFL Free Agency Thread

[DaBruinz]

2020-2025 trades where main comp was 3rd round pick. Some straight third, others included later pick swaps or later picks.
But the 3rd round pick was the main return.

Bradley Roby

Matt Ryan

Rodney Hudson

Devante Parker

Jalen Ramsey

Calvin Ridley

Rasul Douglas

Carlton Davis

Chase Young

Jarius Sneed

Matthew Judon

Marshon Lattimore

Amari Cooper

Darius Slay

Gareon Conley

Emmanuel Sanders

Duke Johnson

Geno Smith

Emmanuel Sanders and Gareon Conley were traded traded in 2019. Just because the trades were for 2020 picks doesn't change that the trades occurred in 2019, So, your time frame of trades just expanded from 6 years to 7 years. So, 18 players over 7 years.. That's 2.6 per year.. Even at 6 years, it's only 3 per year. Not exactly "a ton".

Though you try and downplay it, many of the trades included other picks. You lumping ALL trades with a 3rd rounder involved is a poor attempt to justify your exaggerations of how often 3rds are traded for Veteran players.

 

[DaBruinz]

What? I already posted the data on 3rd round picks success which is what I was talking about.

Geno Smith, Matt Judon, I'm not going to Google for you something that happens every year.

I'm KCSVEN. How dare anyone not take me at my word just because I say so. *SMH*

Listen. You made the statement claiming that TONS of 3rds are traded for vets. The reality is that it's just 2-3 and many times it's not JUST for a vet player. Many times there are other picks involved.

You relying n Charlie Casserly's data that is over a decade old in regards to player success rates based on round doesn't help your claims either. It varies year to year and varies by position.

 

[DaBruinz]

Saying similar things. Hope I helped.

It's not saying SIMILAR things. His claim was that it trades of 3rd round picks for Vet Players happens a TON. He attempted to backtrack on it after getting called for the information.

2-3 times a year is NOT "a ton". And that 2-3 is only if you include the trades where there was more involved than just a Vet player and the 3rd round pick. It's like saying that Mike Vrabel was traded for a 2nd round pick. It's not telling the whole story.

He also is attempting to push a narrative based on information from Charlie Casserly, who may have gotten it from others before him. I happen to remember Casserly posting the article. What KCSven is leaving out is that Casserly stated that draft class success varies from position to position, round to round, year to year. So, for him to generalize that there is only a 25% success rate for 3rd round picks, he's not telling you the whole story.

 

[ausbacker]

We are less than 12 hours in, but I'm not surprised.
My assumption was Vrabel would address the trenches and defense.
- Slightly surprised by the amount of emphasis on defense.
- Disappointed in the lack of additions to the OL, specifically LT.
- Not surprised that WR was a lower priority.
Perhaps they are going to wait a bit to see what McDaniels can do with what he has to work with first?
Maybe they are being realistic/pragmatic and this is more than a one-year fix, despite all the cap $ to work with.

I'm not overly concerned about the offense, mainly because I knew the Pats couldn't address every roster issue in Free Agency and the Draft this season. What I am pleased with is there appears to be a clear team and culture building direction.

From the new coaching staff to the infusion of much needed talent, with a potential generational QB at the helm, this is the best I've felt about the Patriots prospects in years.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

I’d just sign Justin Reid. Safeties are not worth that

Do we know Reid’s price? 3 yrs/45m?

 

[40yrpatsfan]

He was playing with the league MVP. That's a part of the equation.

He also played well with McDaniels in LV.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

I hate Brown’s work ethic
He is so hot and cold
How about Cornelius Lucas on a 1 year deal
Team Captain to push rest of Line

Brown’s coming off a knee injury.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

The problem with this is that taxes aren’t as simple as just your home state. Every year will be different depending on schedule. Not sure administratively if it’s possible to make it work where it’s equal team to team. NFL also has no control over the state that endorsements and investment gains would be taxed at. I don’t think there’s actually a way to equalize it.

Leave it outside the cap but allow teams to reimburse players at least a portion of state tax paid.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

If the league pays the players taxes then the IRS will treat that as income and tax them on it though. Taxation isn’t an NFL thing, it’s an IRS thing.

I guess you could have players agree to after tax salaries and each NFL team would have to gross up the payroll each week such that the play gets his after tax salary pro rated. But the player still has to finalize and a tax return and what state they’re in and any other income generated will impact what they actually file with.

It wouldn’t have to be exact, just a way to lessen the diff between a high tax vs low/no tac state. Yes the reimbursement amount would also be taxable but it addresses about 50% of the problem, makes it much less of a hurdle.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

Dup

 

[mnpatfan]

What's the current cap space for the Pats after yesterday's haul? Still enough to comfortably pay Robinson 20+MM?

 

[Clonamery]

What's the current cap space for the Pats after yesterday's haul? Still enough to comfortably pay Robinson 20+MM?

from patscap:

My latest projection of the Patriots 2025 salary cap space number after accounting for Josh Dobbs and Mack Hollins. Have the Patriots w/ over $126M in cap space and over $100M in effective cap space.

Waiting on details of these 6 deals (Landry, Spillane, Williams, Moses, Davis and Tonga)

 

[manxman2601]

Mack Hollins is going to magically catch more TD passes than any other season of his career? NOT.

So long as he catches 50% of the the rest of the WR corps, I'd be happy with that.

 

[KCSVEN]

Just for fun -

I have a first round pick - it's #16 in a normal typical draft
How many "not that valuable" 3rd round picks would you give me for my first round pick #16

Depends on the draft
Since the majority of all pros come from the first round they are very valuable, also depends on my team make up whether I have my core superstars or not
I sssume,p Ihave a 16th pick of the third round because there’s a big difference between the first pick and the last and the round
According to the draft value chart it would take 5-6 third round picks, of course the odds of me having that many 3rd picks in the draft is basically zero so if talking future draft picks they become less valuable to trade third round pick five years out than this year.

In the 2025 draft 16 the first round is equivalent to 27th or so pick in 2024.

Between 3 and 10 depending on the quality of the prospects in the draft. Probably 10 if 2024 probably three if it’s 2025.

 

[KCSVEN]

Emmanuel Sanders and Gareon Conley were traded traded in 2019. Just because the trades were for 2020 picks doesn't change that the trades occurred in 2019, So, your time frame of trades just expanded from 6 years to 7 years. So, 18 players over 7 years.. That's 2.6 per year.. Even at 6 years, it's only 3 per year. Not exactly "a ton".

Though you try and downplay it, many of the trades included other picks. You lumping ALL trades with a 3rd rounder involved is a poor attempt to justify your exaggerations of how often 3rds are traded for Veteran players.

As we know you’re odds of getting anybody out of the later pick is almost 0 so yeah if the 3rd round pick was the key to the trade it counts. Absolutely 100% not a poor attempt.

How many teams are aggressively pursuing veterans for a third round pick?
You’re aggressively pursuing veterans with third round in your hypothetical.


Since teams over value third round picks it’s amazing How many are traded for veterans. Definitely seems like a sweet spot if you were to aggressively use these picks to trade for veterans.

If I was Aggressive as a GM could I get 4 to 8 NFL caliber players by trading a third pick every year for the next eight years? Probably. If I kept the draft picks and I am an average NFL drafter I'd be getting two contributing players in those 8 years.

The main point is 3rd round picks are over valued and 8 out of 10 end up with little or no value for an average team and some teams get zero value over 8 years.

 

[KCSVEN]

I'm KCSVEN. How dare anyone not take me at my word just because I say so. *SMH*

Listen. You made the statement claiming that TONS of 3rds are traded for vets. The reality is that it's just 2-3 and many times it's not JUST for a vet player. Many times there are other picks involved.

You relying n Charlie Casserly's data that is over a decade old in regards to player success rates based on round doesn't help your claims either. It varies year to year and varies by position.

I have no idea who Charlie Caserly is, but that’s not where the other data came from but apparently there’s now three analysts that agree
I’m still waiting for all your sources that disagree

You’re stuck on semantics there are the 3rd round picks traded for veterans all the time, there are not 2000 trades. you could 100% get an NFL veteran that will play for you every single year by trading your third round pick.

I’ll wait for your data. Having an opinion and just sticking with it for no reason isn’t much of an argument.

 

[Hawaiipatsfan2]

As we know you’re odds of getting anybody out of the later pick is almost 0 so yeah if the 3rd round pick was the key to the trade it counts. Absolutely 100% not a poor attempt.

How many teams are aggressively pursuing veterans for a third round pick?
You’re aggressively pursuing veterans with third round in your hypothetical.


Since teams over value third round picks it’s amazing How many are traded for veterans. Definitely seems like a sweet spot if you were to aggressively use these picks to trade for veterans.

If I was Aggressive as a GM could I get4 to 8 NFL caliber players by trading a third pick every year for the next eight years? Probably. If I kept the draft picks and am an average drafter br getting two contributing players.

The main point is 3rd round picks are over valued and 8 out of 10 end up with little or no value for an average team and some teams get zero value over 8 years.

Over the past 4 drafts.(20-24) Only 5 players selected in the 3rd round have gone on to make the pro bowl. And of those 5 players it’s only a total of 9 pro bowls.

Now you can get serviceable players in the 3rd, but it does appear you will have a very low chance of finding high quality talent there.

 

[KCSVEN]

Over the past 4 drafts.(20-24) Only 5 players selected in the 3rd round have gone on to make the pro bowl. And of those 5 players it’s only a total of 9 pro bowls.

Now you can get serviceable players in the 3rd, but it does appear you will have a very low chance of finding high quality talent there.

There is a slight correlation between successful 3rd round picks and winning. Every draft is also different, some have better depth than others.

In 2022 draft there are zero pro bowlers from the 3rd round but 32% of picks are starters and 41% contribute significant minutes.

All those players are up for new contracts and be interesting to see how many are actually kept on the team to a second contract.

3rd round is a place to fill in your roster but many of those same guys become less expensive free agents or available for trade every year.

It'd be interesting to see how many of those 3rd round picks would be traded for a 3rd round pick today.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

I guess rinse and try again works for some
=============
We had a terrible Defense last year. Add a safety tomorrow and we have top 5-10 Defense. Our Special Teams are better than average.

After 12 hours, the Offense is not year competitive. Sign Robinson, an IOL. a S, and a RB tomorrow or WED and we'll enter real free agency in very good shape.

I agree we’ll be in good shape. Teams not “fixed” though. They’d still have no LT, weak pass rush off the edge, horrible WR depth chart, probably not great interior run defense.

I’m not saying they can’t make huge incremental process this year or that they haven’t already. I just think it’s too much work to be done to turn over every position that needs to be.

 

[slash83]

Give me one of Javon Holland or Cam Robinson on day and free agency will be a homerun.