Offensive prediction

[40yrpatsfan]

I agree with this. But we are going run heavy. But it won't be as bad as it looks. I think we will run and pass pretty equally most games.. but in the 4th quarter if we have a decent lead... Maye might not pass at all. Of course it goes the other way that if behind we will pass more.

My main issue is that if the run isn't working, the Pats need to be okay getting away from it. Just cause we plan to go pass heavy is no excuse to pound your head against a steel door until you're down 14 in the 4th quarter.

It’s whatever mix of run & pass that gets us first downs reliably.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

Flip those numbers - add 75-80 more passing attempts, drop 80 or so running attempts... the last two full seasons McDaniels was calling an offense, it was about a 550/490 pass/run... I see no reason to deviate from that ratio

This team needs to get the opposing defenses out of the box this year... a run heavy offense is just going to let them keep doing the same... They cannot allow another year of teams stacking against the run... the offense needs to spread it out, and that means passing the ball... They brought in Diggs, time to use him...

Training wheels are off this year for Maye. McD won’t hesitate to throw a lot and use the run to keep the D honest, subject to matchups of course.

 

[Pape]

Training wheels are off this year for Maye. McD won’t hesitate to throw a lot and use the run to keep the D honest, subject to matchups of course.

worst thing in the world for Maye was Alex Van Pelt as OC and Captain Oblivious as the HC... i seriously hope he was able to tap into the ex gint on the coaching staff... his name slips my mind, but you gotta know who im talking about... whathisface

 

[TheRainMaker]

worst thing in the world for Maye was Alex Van Pelt as OC and Captain Oblivious as the HC... i seriously hope he was able to tap into the ex gint on the coaching staff... his name slips my mind, but you gotta know who im talking about... whathisface

McAdoo?

 

[TheRainMaker]

Training wheels are off this year for Maye. McD won’t hesitate to throw a lot and use the run to keep the D honest, subject to matchups of course.

I expect the 2021 offense leading with the ground game to set up the pass.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

I expect the 2021 offense leading with the ground game to set up the pass.

But not because we’re deficient in the pass game. I think Vrabel and mcdaniels will be looking for vulnerabilities in the defense and design a game plan accordingly. The offense will be better in all phases this year.

 

[Real fan 02]

I think Hollins starts the season as WR 2, assuming Diggs is WR 1 so I think you're under estimating him here. It also won't surprise me if Henderson outrushes Stevenson because of his ability to break the long run.

I agree that we're going to be a run orientated offense (another reason for me having Hollins at WR 2).

I think it will be hard to say realistically who is in fact locks until we see the camp battles.. guys have to go up against gonzo and Davis each camp practice.

 

[Real fan 02]

I expect the 2021 offense leading with the ground game to set up the pass.

Also.. the offense will have the capability to be more explosive specifically with Montgomery and Williams.. thus resulting in not being in 3rd down all the time. When we had great patriots offenses we very seldom found ourselves in 3rd and longs all the time. We converted when in 3rd down and made big plays when they were there.

 

[Real fan 02]

Flip those numbers - add 75-80 more passing attempts, drop 80 or so running attempts... the last two full seasons McDaniels was calling an offense, it was about a 550/490 pass/run... I see no reason to deviate from that ratio

This team needs to get the opposing defenses out of the box this year... a run heavy offense is just going to let them keep doing the same... They cannot allow another year of teams stacking against the run... the offense needs to spread it out, and that means passing the ball... They brought in Diggs, time to use him...

Having speed and big play abilities will get teams out of it. Henderson and Williams provide this. They will have to be accounted for. Defenses will have to adjust. Defenses have alot more to worry about now.. Drake and all he can do, diggs, Williams and Henderson specifically. It's just already a far better offense.. I'm thinking 24,25 PPG.

 

[Pape]

McAdoo?

Thank you!

 

[stinkypete]

Nate??

I thought I fixed that…my phone’s spell check is just the worst.

 

[WhatJustHappened]

Flip those numbers - add 75-80 more passing attempts, drop 80 or so running attempts... the last two full seasons McDaniels was calling an offense, it was about a 550/490 pass/run... I see no reason to deviate from that ratio

This team needs to get the opposing defenses out of the box this year... a run heavy offense is just going to let them keep doing the same... They cannot allow another year of teams stacking against the run... the offense needs to spread it out, and that means passing the ball... They brought in Diggs, time to use him...

They won't be able to stack the box, no fkn chance.
We'll have a very potent run team, and score a bunch.

 

[Ring 6]

Here are the stats I think this offense will produce.

Passing

Maye 26 TDs 12 Ints 4100 yards 310/470 - 101 QB rating.

This year will either show Maye has it or he doesn't. I think there will still be some growing pains and some very questionable interceptions. But overall he takes a good step forward this year with consistency. He won't hit 30 TDs and not be much above a 2/1 ratio. But this will be misleading as he will run a few in himself and get a fair amount vultured by what i think will be a pretty damn good run game. Also notice the lowish attempts. We will probably run more than pass this year.

Rushing

Stevenson 900 yards 200 attempts 7 TDs
Henderson 875 yards 170 attempts 8 TDs
Gibson 450 yards 100 attempts 3 TDs
Larson 300 yards 65 attempts 2 TDs
Maye 300 yards 40 attempts 1 TD

Total 2825 yards (2525 before Maye) 575 attempts (535 before Maye runs) 21 TDs

Henderson takes a bit of a back seat this year as he gets use to an NFL work load. Yes I know 2825 is a monstrous amount. Almost up there with the Eagles, Baltimore and Bills. But we will be running A LOT. The games where we have double digit leads in the 4th may not even see a pass. Because we will be running so much i think there will be enough touches to go around and make people happy, as well as why i think Larson is a virtual lock. The way this team is built we need to plan on a back field which can support 500+ carries. That is asking a lot from 3 guys. It will be a bit more balance than it looks when you remember none of Maye's runs will be designs. He'll do it less on a pure snap average. And you want him to play safe, but that is a part of his game you'd hate to not use.

Receiving

Diggs 1050 yards 8 TDs (assuming 16 games.. missing only 1)
Williams 800 yards 7 TDs (breaks WR curse FINALLY!)
Boutte 450 yards 2 TDs
Douglas 250 yards 1 TDs
Hollins 200 yards 1 TDs

WRs - 2700 yards 19 TDs

Hunter 600 yards 4 TDs
Hooper 250 yards 1 TD

TDs 800 yards 5 TDs

Henderson 350 yards 2 TDs
Other RBs 200 yards

RBs 550 yards 2 TDs

Lots to break down here... the big one being with so many mouths to feed who gets left out? Maye, the offense and how players are just generally playing will favor some guys over others. Diggs, Williams and Hunter will get their targets. That I am am confident in. Next comes Henderson who will see a fair amount of passes. These seems locked in. After that we have our secondary guys of Douglas, Boutte, Hooper and Gibson. All will see reduced looks but will get some. But some will be favored over others. Personally I think Douglas will be 4th WR and feel the worst of it. Hooper gets a reduced amount compared to what he has been use to in the past, but there are clearly 4 guys ahead of him more dynamic with the ball in their hands. Maybe more? Someone is getting their catches dug into. I think Boutte gets off the lightest as him and Maye seem o have something going so he will get his looks.


Anyway, that's my take and i'm sticking too it for now. One thing this exercise did for me is put the WR discussion in perspective. It may matter more who we do or don't keep next year, but for this year it should be a moot point.

We aren’t running the ball 575 times. That hasn’t happened in 30 years and it’s 130 more than last year. We’ve only hit 500 twice in 30 years.

 

[Triumph]

The Pats haven't had a 1000 yard WR, RB or TE in 5 years. Edelman 2019 was the last.

84 games ago.

 

[EMpats]

Chism has a monumental task ahead of him to make an nfl practice squad let alone an active roster and put up stats.

It’s possible but highly unlikely. The short white slot receiver mystique is back I guess. Chism is no more likely to be the next Edelman/welker than a random 6’4 black undrafted receiver is to be the next Randy Moss.

 

[TomPatriot]

Chism has a monumental task ahead of him to make an nfl practice squad let alone an active roster and put up stats.

It’s possible but highly unlikely. The short white slot receiver mystique is back I guess. Chism is no more likely to be the next Edelman/welker than a random 6’4 black undrafted receiver is to be the next Randy Moss.

I’m struggling to see what race has to do with it.

 

[signbabybrady]

Chism has a monumental task ahead of him to make an nfl practice squad let alone an active roster and put up stats.

It’s possible but highly unlikely. The short white slot receiver mystique is back I guess. Chism is no more likely to be the next Edelman/welker than a random 6’4 black undrafted receiver is to be the next Randy Moss.

Come on, everyone knows Hollins is the next Moss.

 

[EMpats]

I’m struggling to see what race has to do with it.

Every white slot receiver gets compared to Edelman and welker. Race comparisons with white receivers is blatant in the nfl. It’s the next Edelman, or the next cooper Kupp. Both Fans and analysts do it. There have been articles and even a segment on espn about the white receiver biases.

 

[cstjohn17]

Awesome breakdown but optimistic IMO. If you shave 10-15% off you are really cooking. Well done

- 4100 passing yards would have been top 5 in 2024
- middle of the pack is around 3700, league average is a huge increase for the Pats
- 2800 rushing yards is top 3 (2024)

2025 NFL Offense Total Team Stat Leaders - ESPN

ESPN is the place for NFL stats! Find a list of the Offense Total team stat leaders for the 2025 NFL Regular Season.

www.espn.com

I know I am in the minority but I thought the Patriots offensive game plans were within the limits of the overall talent (piss poor). The team was so bad they literally had no margin for error.

Dreaming of middle of the road this year.

Thanks for the great post, very thoughtful and appreciated.

 

[Salsalife]

If we're a run first offense, which I agree with, the biggest number I care about for year two is the int%. As much as I liked what he did year one that could have been higher if defenders held onto the ball a few times. A lot of people compare Maye to Josh Allen, I think and hope his style is more like Justin Herbert because I think eventually Allen is going to be like Cam Newton where he took too many unneeded hits in meaningless situations and when he gets into his early 30's we're going to see the cliff. But for this discussion Josh Allen went from 3.8 his rookie year to 2.0 year two. Justin Herbert, with much better weapons than Allen or Maye in year one, had a 1.7 and went up to 2.2 in year two. He also threw the ball a lot more than Allen or Maye with 595 and 672 attempts. If Maye is something like 22-30 TDs, 3000-3500 yards but keeps his picks to 10-ish or under and that pick percentage is more like Herbert I'll be really happy.

Yes. You hit it right on the nose 15td's, 10 interceptions. Not good.First, I hope McDaniels has Drake learn how to call blitz adjustments. Vrabel has to be in that chat. Priority 1! What are you seeing Drake? 2nd is to slow down and learn it's ok to throw the ball away. That's what made the Patriots rock for 20 years. 3, McDaniels has to teach him how to make correct checkdowns into better options. 4. McDaniels has to figure out who his binkies will be and set up plays specifically for them. Training camp, keep it short and sweet and bench the rest.
5. Run the Rock, we got the ponies now, McDaniels, get your fullback, get big personal in there, everybody push. Vrabel, establish the Nasty early in camp. McDaniels play action will be our best friend this year. Run to pass...
Maye has a ton to learn and McDaniels has to to make a clone offense of years back. It will work! Your right, 1st year will be painful..