Odds to be Pats week 1 QB

[mgteich]

What a sad statement for a football fan & Pats fan.

Philadelphia made easy playoffs w WENTZ and won SB vs Brady w FOLES (SB MVP).
Jaguars were one iffy ref decision away from making the SB w BORTLES vs Brady.
Tennessee made AFCCG game w TANNEHILL who nobody considered solid QB at the time, was a backup until W7.
Buffalo made AFCCG game w ALLEN who was considered a bust not too long ago.
And this is just the last 4 years.
CAM was MVP in 2015 and felt unstoppable; Denver beat Carolina w shadow PEYTON* (declining hard 2015* benched for OSWEILER* mid season)
etc etc

QB is important but football is about TEAM & strategy. There are many ways & circumstances to win.
Go read BB's favourite book - The Art of War - just 60 pages. Might cheer you up..

60-80M can bring lots of good veteran players. No reason not to be at least a little bit excited for the 2021 Pats TEAM.



* Manning finished the game 13-of-23 for 141 yards with one interception while being sacked five times, scoring his only passing points with 3:08 left in the fourth quarter when he connected with wide receiver Fowler for a two-point conversion, which ended up being the final pass of his career. Benched for Osweiler mid season who went to sign top QB contract w Houston.

I'd settle to have one of the QB's who were one of the 3 worst of the final 8 in the playoffs. Remind, who were they?

 

[TheRainMaker]

So, our 2020 defense was terrible and adding Hightower, a NT, and a mid-level free agent LB will make it worse. I guess that we all live in our own worlds. Stats don't tell everything, or even close. However, please show that our 2020 defense was terrible.

After all the 2020 defense was so terrible that we won 7 games with the worst QB, WR's and TE's in the NFL.

Were they not 26th in run defense and 27th in sacks? Their front 7 is among the worst in the league. How much gas does HT have left in the tank? And who is this NT you speak of? Is he another body like Beau Allen or can he actually play? Ditto with the LB. Again, front 7 needs 3-4 new starters and a big playmaker in the draft. They have the #15th pick, so go find him if you're not taking a QB. Secondary is okay for now, but will be a need in a year or two.

They are trending in the wrong direction so I'm not sure how that's hard to see.

 

[mgcolby]

View attachment 30749

Other than Watson that's...not exactly an inspiring list.

I guess I'm on Team "Rookie Quarterback". lol

Me too. With maybe a dash of a veteran place holder for several weeks.

 

[gobesmug]

Why are folks down on Cam? He isn't elite, but having had a year to play in the system, and vice versa a year for Bill and McDaniels to evaluate his strengths and weaknesses, they might be able to make a decent offense around him.

The skill position was trash, no WRs could stretch the defense. Perhaps adding a Wr like Allen Robinson or Kenny Golladay could help Cam flourish. Cam is at his best when he has a large consistent target to throw at.

Golladay or Robinson would fill that Kelvin Benjamin role. Combine that with the duel threat of Sony and Harris and that's the making of a solid offense

 

[imahobgoblin]

What exactly is a Sliplady? Ive always wondered.

The numbers you cite there are from 2020. Tribisky did not start for 7 games while Foles was busy going 2 - 5.

Tribskys completion % has been relatively steady.

2018 65.0%
2019 63.0%
2020 67.0%

Tribiskys INTs are a little high, but Im wondering if McDaniel's could improve that in a short passing offense. I say yes. Tribisky has been reliable and very mobile. He is not a statue and has averaged over 5.0 yac. Mitchell Trubisky Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Furthermore Sliplady Chicago had OL issues galore in the beginning of the season, but eventually ironed them out and found a staring lineup at OL. Tribsiky played bad no doubt and Im not trying to pin the blame elsewhere. Post benching Tribiskys passing % was way better with 5 games ranging from 68% to 78%. Mitchell Trubisky 2020 Game Log | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Im looking at completion %,
Reliability = health. Jimmy is IR waiting to happen.
Cost - Hopefully cut and a FA will cost the Pats no picks.
He comes with no contract unless Chicago resigns Probably willing to sign a Pats prove it deal like Cam.

Everything adds up to Tribisky being the best option IMO.

Very nice logo there.

A Sliplady is probably similar to calling yourself Triumph and then using the pic of that nerd. Yes, I cited 2020 stats because we actually just concluded that season. Duh. His numbers stunk.

 

[mgteich]

Were they not 26th in run defense and 27th in sacks? Their front 7 is among the worst in the league. How much gas does HT have left in the tank? And who is this NT you speak of? Is he another body like Beau Allen or can he actually play? Ditto with the LB. Again, front 7 needs 3-4 new starters and a big playmaker in the draft. They have the #15th pick, so go find him if you're not taking a QB. Secondary is okay for now, but will be a need in a year or two.

They are trending in the wrong direction so I'm not sure how that's hard to see.

2020 NFL Opposition & Defensive Statistics | Pro-Football-Reference.com (pro-football-reference.com)

You choose to believe what you wish to believe. Select the stats you wish, where we did worst. And then decide that we cannot be a top 5 or 10 defense instead of a top 15 (7th against the pass). We played without a NT and with a LB corps that was fully depleted. We have over $60M in cap money. There is certainly no reason for the defense not to be top 10.

 

[mgcolby]

How come no one is talking about Alex Smith as a possibility? He is obviously not happy with Washington and after everything he has aired this week, I would say it's highly unlikely he is not going to return.

How about Alex and a Rookie QB. Gets to learn from a pro and assuming Alex can stay healthy you can win with him.

 

[Big Bucks]

Take Mullens from 49ers.. he is restricted and was undrafted. Sign him to a 6m deal. Don't see a first or second round tender being placed on him.

 

[zimmy]

We went 7-9 with a threadbare team and Cam having a historically bad season. We'll feel better about the team come July even if its not a championship contender. Add in Mariota/Trubisky (or even Jimmy) and a rookie QB, along with, lets say for arguments sake, Jonnu Smith, Curtis Samuel, Matt Milano (but pick whoever you want to see) and a few reinforcements on the D line, and the team will look better. Enough to compete for a playoff spot.

 

[lancerman]

What a sad statement for a football fan & Pats fan.

Philadelphia made easy playoffs w WENTZ and won SB vs Brady w FOLES (SB MVP).
Jaguars were one iffy ref decision away from making the SB w BORTLES vs Brady.
Tennessee made AFCCG game w TANNEHILL who nobody considered solid QB at the time, was a backup until W7.
Buffalo made AFCCG game w ALLEN who was considered a bust not too long ago.
And this is just the last 4 years.
CAM was MVP in 2015 and felt unstoppable; Denver beat Carolina w shadow PEYTON* (declining hard 2015* benched for OSWEILER* mid season)
etc etc

QB is important but football is about TEAM & strategy. There are many ways & circumstances to win.
Go read BB's favourite book - The Art of War - just 60 pages. Might cheer you up..

60-80M can bring lots of good veteran players. No reason not to be at least a little bit excited for the 2021 Pats TEAM.



* Manning finished the game 13-of-23 for 141 yards with one interception while being sacked five times, scoring his only passing points with 3:08 left in the fourth quarter when he connected with wide receiver Fowler for a two-point conversion, which ended up being the final pass of his career. Benched for Osweiler mid season who went to sign top QB contract w Houston.

Wentz was playing at an MVP level.

Foles had arguably the greatest statistical playoff run by a QB ever and already shown himself to be streaky and capable of elite play

Allen was elite this year and got more MVP votes than Mahomes.

Cam was an MVP that year and likewise had shown ability to go up and down achieving elite play throughout that junction of his career

None of those are good arguments against the importance of QB. You are merely using reputation to ignore how they actually played to achieve that.

Bottles and Manning are your only good arguments. Manning should hardly count because he was on a team with a historical and generational defense that comes around once or twice every decade and isn’t a sustainable model to consistently win like we did with Brady.

So really you have Bortles who likewise needed a great defense who upped his game and has achieved the least of anyone you mentioned.

 

[stinkypete]

These probabilities add to 209%.

Did I miss something. Are we running a 2 QB set next year?

 

[sb1]

These probabilities add to 209%.

Did I miss something. Are we running a 2 QB set next year?

Yeah saw that too but it's "implied probability" - basically odds converted to percent which wouldn't total 100 anyway.

 

[stinkypete]

Yeah saw that too but it's "implied probability" - basically odds converted to percent which wouldn't total 100 anyway.

The math teacher in me cannot accept this Willy Wonka anti-science.

 

[Brandon_Cox]

Gardner Minshew. He's cheap and reliable and will be a great mentor to Trey Lance

 

[Ryan]

I'd be ok with Mariota because at least he has some possible untapped potential (emphasis on the word possible). I still would like to see us draft a QB early though even if we do sign a veteran.

What I'm not into is signing the Brissetts & Fitzpatricks of the world.

 

[Boston Boxer]

i guarantee they sign Cam and draft a QB

 

[mariomega]

Cam Newton and a glorious 6-10 record.

 

[Nehalem]

Can someone explain to me how Brian Hoyer is at 8%?

 

[mariomega]

Can someone explain to me how Brian Hoyer is at 8%?

Hahaha yes, I am laughing hard here as well. Or panicking, who knows?

 

[Hyped]

My rankings odds-wise:

a.) Mac Jones
b.) Cam Newton
c.) Marcus Mariota
d.) Jarett Stidham