No more guaranteed money for Jonnu Smith? [False alarm: Joel Corry somehow made this up, not correct]

[Wozzy]

I think far too often fans judge players in a vacuum.

Randy Moss in 2006 versus Randy Moss in 2007… what changed with his skill set?

Absolutely nothing is the answer, he was the best WR in the NFL the entire time.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Jonnu has a great gig - get paid a lot of money to do nothing. A terrible message to send to the rest of the team.

 

[mgteich]

People get so overworked about when money hits the cap that they lose sight of how much money is hitting the cap overall. Keeping Smith at his current $11M means that’s another $11M that has to hit the cap at some point. The immediate cap implications are less important than just saying that you don’t want to pay the guy $11M.

In slightly rounded terms, Smith’s restructure pushed $5.3M cap hit from 2022 to $2.65M in 2023 and $2.65M in 2024. That 2023 portion happens whether he’s on the roster or not. If he’s cut without the June 1 designation, then last year’s restructure means the extra $2.65M for 2024 will accelerate to 2023. Are people really throwing a tantrum about $2.65M? The original signing bonus ($3.75M cap hit in 2024 that would also accelerate to 2023 if cut) is a bigger issue, but again, see the previous paragraph.

The best outcome here is probably a pay cut with incentives to earn the money back. Smith has a fairly unique skill set and O’Brien has gotten production out of less skilled players before. Rosenhaus has already started negotiating his clients’ pay cuts this offseason (Aaron Jones from $16M down to $11M yesterday), and the Patriots have even negotiated with him on a tight end pay cut before (Dwayne Allen).

(This all assumes Corry’s report is accurate. It would surprise me if everybody else was wrong this whole time, but I also find it hard to see how Corry could be wrong given that it’s an article about what date the salary vests on, and there would be no vesting date if it was already fully guaranteed.)

1) I agree that we should NOT be considered with the cap hit. We shouldn't spend $11M of new money simply because of cap accounting.

2) So, the question is whether Smith is worth the new (avoidable) money. I suspect that the team will decide that he is. However, that is a team decision involving his project value, given recovery from injuries.

3) You suggest what many posters often do. A player hasn't played up to expectations, so you think that he will now be a good guy and take a pay cut. That just isn't the way contracts work. If the team wants t cut him, they will. Smith has no incentive to accept a pay cut. He would just wait to be cut and look for a team that wants him.

 

[mgteich]

You cut Jonnu tomorrow, who plays that H-Back (Hernandez, Keith Byars) role opposite Hunter Henry this season?

Jonnu's lack of production hasn't necessarily been a product of his inability to do the job... the offense around him has either had a rookie QB and passed less than just about any team in the league (2021), or has been an outright dumpster fire due to coaching (2022) who passed less than just about any team in the league.

I don't get the idea of judging TE/FB/H-Back's off receiving production alone anyway... blocking matters, especially for a team that only runs and rarely passes. The list of free agent TE's worth a damn is small, the list of guys who can flex into the backfield and play fullback is even smaller.

The offensive coaches and QB's have to be better at their job in 2023... period.

If you want to restructure Jonnu to open up cap space... fine, otherwise tell me who is playing his position in 2023 when you cut him?

I think that the team is fine with Smith at $10M and $11M a year of new money. There are enough needs without creating another one.

It is NOT easy to find a TE that will contribute, although I know that posters think that there is no problem finding such players in the 3rd and 4th rounds or off the waiver at vet minimum compensation.

 

[Sciz]

False alarm. I similarly don’t know how he screwed that up, making up a date when there is no date because nothing is happening.

 

[Ross12]

1) I agree that we should NOT be considered with the cap hit. We shouldn't spend $11M of new money simply because of cap accounting.

2) So, the question is whether Smith is worth the new (avoidable) money. I suspect that the team will decide that he is. However, that is a team decision involving his project value, given recovery from injuries.

3) You suggest what many posters often do. A player hasn't played up to expectations, so you think that he will now be a good guy and take a pay cut. That just isn't the way contracts work. If the team wants t cut him, they will. Smith has no incentive to accept a pay cut. He would just wait to be cut and look for a team that wants him.

On point 3 - I think they structure the guaranteed money to hit three days after free agency so that the player can see what the market for tight ends looks like and evaluate if it’s smarter to take the restructure the team is offering, or say “no” and get released to try to get a new deal elsewhere.

 

[Ross12]

False alarm. I similarly don’t know how he screwed that up, making up a date when there is no date because nothing is happening.

What the actual F. This makes no sense

 

[Crazy World of Troy Brown]

I'm gambling one more time. OB is a TE Offense kind of OC. TE's to me the most important position, in his kind of Professional Offense. If he can't get something out of him, then let it go.

 

[Pape]

False alarm. I similarly don’t know how he screwed that up, making up a date when there is no date because nothing is happening.

thats one hell of a mistake

 

[Pape]

What the actual F. This makes no sense

corry didnt know what he was talking about, apparently... while only 6.25 m is guaranteed, the 19 million dollar dead cap hit that would come releasing him all but guarantees his 2023 contract...

 

[Ross12]

corry didnt know what he was talking about, apparently... while only 6.25 m is guaranteed, the 19 million dollar dead cap hit that would come releasing him all but guarantees his 2023 contract...

Yep. Well that’s really stupid.

But in any case, if he’s definitely going to be on the roster for 2023 then they could once again convert most of his $10M salary into a signing bonus. If $6.25M is guaranteed already then just convert $9M into a bonus and prorate it over 2023 and 2024. Drop salary to $1M. Makes his bonus proration in 2023 and 2024 around $11M per year. He would have around a $13M cap hit in 2023 so they’d save a few million in cap space. His salary in 2024 is not guaranteed so if he doesn’t turn it around in 2023 they could release him for just a dead money hit of $11M. If he DOES turn it around then his cap hit is a little high and they’d want to extend him to keep him around anyway and get the cap hit lower again.

 

[mgteich]

On point 3 - I think they structure the guaranteed money to hit three days after free agency so that the player can see what the market for tight ends looks like and evaluate if it’s smarter to take the restructure the team is offering, or say “no” and get released to try to get a new deal elsewhere.

Other teams cannot make offers. Smith is under contract through 2024. The waiting period is there to allow free agencies to hear from other teams before making a decision on an offer from their current team.
=========================
It is the team that has the choice. They can cut him or not.

There seems to be a dispute with regard to whether $6.35M of his 2023 salary is guaranteed. In any case it is up to the team. They can certainly decided to have Smith sign a new contract or be cut.

 

[Pape]

Yep. Well that’s really stupid.

But in any case, if he’s definitely going to be on the roster for 2023 then they could once again convert most of his $10M salary into a signing bonus. If $6.25M is guaranteed already then just convert $9M into a bonus and prorate it over 2023 and 2024. Drop salary to $1M. Makes his bonus proration in 2023 and 2024 around $11M per year. He would have around a $13M cap hit in 2023 so they’d save a few million in cap space. His salary in 2024 is not guaranteed so if he doesn’t turn it around in 2023 they could release him for just a dead money hit of $11M. If he DOES turn it around then his cap hit is a little high and they’d want to extend him to keep him around anyway and get the cap hit lower again.

you dont want to do that without extending the deal with a void year... in '24 he has a 18m cap hit... if they cut him next year, we get 12m in cap space, and 6.4m in dead money... a much better time to make a move... add another 4.5m to that then its 11 million in dead money and only 8 million in cap savings... if i've read the numbers correctly

i would try to extend him, drop his aav to a more palatable level, then try to trade him... otherwise take the hit this year and move on next year when the team is in a better position

 

[Sciz]

3) You suggest what many posters often do. A player hasn't played up to expectations, so you think that he will now be a good guy and take a pay cut. That just isn't the way contracts work. If the team wants t cut him, they will. Smith has no incentive to accept a pay cut. He would just wait to be cut and look for a team that wants him.

I guess my first paragraph wasn’t overly clear. Under Corry’s made up scenario, I would have offered Smith a pay cut and then released him if an agreement couldn’t be reached. I’m not one of those people who suggests pay cuts for players who aren’t cut candidates. It usually doesn’t work out and the player just gets cut, but I know there’s been a pay cut from a Patriots player in at least 7 of the last 8 offseasons (3 are Amendola, but still 4 of the other 5), so I don’t think it’s unreasonable to suggest that one could happen this offseason.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

The wrinkle here is that BOB was the guy that had great success with our 2 TE offense. Of course, that was Gronk and Hernandez and not Henry and Smith.

Simple as that.

 

[Wozzy]

Simple as that.

Hunter Henry is no Gronk... that being said nobody is. Hunter Henry is one of the better TE's in the NFL right now.

Jonnu was pretty darn good for the Titans, the Pats offense hasn't found a way to utilize him. Is Jonnu overpaid, sure, who is the replacement and why... the Pats have plenty of cap space now and into the future. They have two QB's on rookie contracts.

Removing a good player to create another hole that needs filling isn't the answer... filling the holes they already have and improving is.

 

[Ross12]

Other teams cannot make offers. Smith is under contract through 2024. The waiting period is there to allow free agencies to hear from other teams before making a decision on an offer from their current team.
=========================
It is the team that has the choice. They can cut him or not.

There seems to be a dispute with regard to whether $6.35M of his 2023 salary is guaranteed. In any case it is up to the team. They can certainly decided to have Smith sign a new contract or be cut.

I think you misunderstood me. I was saying that Smith could estimate his worth on the open market based upon deals that free agent TEs are signed to. However it’s all a moot point now.

 

[mgteich]

I think you misunderstood me. I was saying that Smith could estimate his worth on the open market based upon deals that free agent TEs are signed to. However it’s all a moot point now.

fair enough

thank you for the clarification