No more guaranteed money for Jonnu Smith? [False alarm: Joel Corry somehow made this up, not correct]

[MagicMarker]

According to Joel Corry, Jonnu Smith's salary guarantees are only for injury until March 17.

Agent's Take: 2023 NFL offseason dates to know for free agency, contract options, franchise tags

The Patriots so far have given him $27 million for two seasons (only about $13 million has hit the cap, so there's about $14 million in dead money).

If they keep him, he gets $10 million more.

There's no way he's not cut before March 17 is there?

 

[TheRainMaker]

If they can get rid of Jonnu, they should. Don't make the same mistake they did picking up Wynn's option.

 

[Ross12]

This is interesting. It essentially says that Jonnu’s $6.25M guarantee on his $10M salary in 2023 is for injury only until March 17. The projections on sites like overthecap which say that the Patriots would have a $19M dead cap hit and lose more in cap space than they’d gain by cutting him make the assumption that this $6.25M is already guaranteed, but it is not. It seems to me that if Jonnu was cut today and that guarantee was voided, they would only have a cap hit of the remaining two years of bonus proration of $6.4M per year, or about $12.8M total - meaning they’d save about $5M in cap space by cutting (or trading) him.

That’s still a decently sized dead cap hit but they could at least get out of the deal, gain additional cap space, and maybe seek alternatives on the market or via draft. Hunter Henry is also primed for cutting with an easy $10.5M saved on the cap by doing so. Pats could gain over $15M in cap space by releasing and/or trading their two tight ends. Obvious downside is that they then have none.

 

[Gumby]

This is interesting. …. Pats could gain over $15M in cap space by releasing and/or trading their two tight ends. Obvious downside is that they then have none.

Hmmmm……does that smell like a surprise 1st round TE selection instead of the more essential OL pick.
BB always going left when you think right.

Smith-Henry getting cut wouldn’t bother me TOO much. But he always had a plan for player depth ( but maybe not always coaches ….ouch).

 

[Family]

Jonnu Smith restructures contract, creates $5 million in cap space for Patriots

Odds were pretty good that someone on the Patriots would be convinced to restructure their deal ahead of the 2022 season. Not many expected that someone to be Jonnu Smith.

www.cbsnews.com

They just restructured his deal in September, which made him more difficult to cut this year.

This would be horrible management if he's cut.

 

[Ross12]

Jonnu Smith restructures contract, creates $5 million in cap space for Patriots

Odds were pretty good that someone on the Patriots would be convinced to restructure their deal ahead of the 2022 season. Not many expected that someone to be Jonnu Smith.

www.cbsnews.com

They just restructured his deal in September, which made him more difficult to cut this year.

This would be horrible management if he's cut.

They restructured his contract in 2022 to create cap space in 2022. They apparently structured it where they made more money guaranteed in 2023 but only for injury. The money does not become fully guaranteed until March 17th, so they can seemingly get out of that guaranteed cash by releasing or trading him and gain $5M in cap space in 2023. This would mean they saved cap space in 2022 and again in 2023. Where is the horrible management here?

 

[50-yard-line]

Neither TE has done much since neither TE has had the ball thrown his way much.
Complete mismanagement of assets. Henry is a mid-route runner, and is very smooth at it. He gets open.
Smith is a YAC guy. YAC doesn't matter when you're thrown the ball less than 3 times per game.

Keep in mind that both of these guys were rated in the top 10 TE's in the league when they came here, and for some mysterious reason, neither were used.

 

[Family]

They restructured his contract in 2022 to create cap space in 2022. They apparently structured it where they made more money guaranteed in 2023 but only for injury. The money does not become fully guaranteed until March 17th, so they can seemingly get out of that guaranteed cash by releasing or trading him and gain $5M in cap space in 2023. This would mean they saved cap space in 2022 and again in 2023. Where is the horrible management here?

The cap is so confusing, but this doesn't make sense to me.

You can restructure someone, get the credit for the current year, and not have it count the next year disguised as an injury stipulation?

I interpreted the injury stipulation to be part of the original contract, and the restructure separate.

Are you sure it happened they way you are saying? I have no idea.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

The cap is so confusing, but this doesn't make sense to me.

You can restructure someone, get the credit for the current year, and not have it count the next year disguised as an injury stipulation?

I interpreted the injury stipulation to be part of the original contract, and the restructure separate.

Are you sure it happened they way you are saying? I have no idea.

You are correct. They converted base salary to bonus last year. That has nothing to do with the current situation. It was assumed the $6.25m was fully guaranteed when he signed here, but it turns out it’s only guaranteed for injury through March 17, and fully guaranteed after that.

 

[Ross12]

The cap is so confusing, but this doesn't make sense to me.

You can restructure someone, get the credit for the current year, and not have it count the next year disguised as an injury stipulation?

I interpreted the injury stipulation to be part of the original contract, and the restructure separate.

Are you sure it happened they way you are saying? I have no idea.

I believe the roughly $6M they can avoid is part of his $10M base salary in 2023 and not part of his bonus that was part of past restructures. Essentially in 2022 they took $8M of his salary and converted it into a signing bonus which was prorated over the remainder of the deal - 2022, 2023, 2024, so around $2.6M additional per year on their cap in ‘23 and ‘24 in order to lower their cap hit by $5M and change in 2022.

The thought at the time was that this made Jonnu a roster lock in 2023 because $6M of his salary was guaranteed, so that guaranteed salary plus the remaining $13M or so of his signing bonus prorations, both from his original deal and from the restructure, would equal out to around a $19M dead cap hit if he was cut which is more than the $17M cap hit he would have by just being on the team. However, now that we know that the $6M in guaranteed salary this year is not guaranteed yet, that lowers his dead cap hit in 2023 (currently) to a bit shy of $13M if he was released. Therefore the team could save a few million in cap space in 2023 if he was released or traded, and his $18M cap hit in 2024 would be entirely off the books.

Edit: I wish I didn’t write all this out since Miguel just covered it in much better fashion right above me

 

[Family]

I believe the roughly $6M they can avoid is part of his $10M base salary in 2023 and not part of his bonus that was part of past restructures. Essentially in 2022 they took $8M of his salary and converted it into a signing bonus which was prorated over the remainder of the deal - 2022, 2023, 2024, so around $2.6M additional per year on their cap in ‘23 and ‘24 in order to lower their cap hit by $5M and change in 2022.

The thought at the time was that this made Jonnu a roster lock in 2023 because $6M of his salary was guaranteed, so that guaranteed salary plus the remaining $13M or so of his signing bonus prorations, both from his original deal and from the restructure, would equal out to around a $19M dead cap hit if he was cut which is more than the $17M cap hit he would have by just being on the team. However, now that we know that the $6M in guaranteed salary this year is not guaranteed yet, that lowers his dead cap hit in 2023 (currently) to a bit shy of $13M if he was released. Therefore the team could save a few million in cap space in 2023 if he was released or traded, and his $18M cap hit in 2024 would be entirely off the books.

So the bottom line is Smith would be an easier cut without the restructure. They actually guaranteed him more money.

Wouldn't the team be better off restructuring someone they weren't likely to cut in 2023?

I consider that bad management.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

So the bottom line is Smith would be an easier cut without the restructure.

Wouldn't the team be better off restructuring someone they weren't likely to cut in 2023?

I consider that bad management.

At the end of the day, they wouldn’t have restructured him if they thought he would have had a bad year. They would have restructured Judon instead, who did perform well and no one wants to cut this year. So yes, bad management, in that they poorly assessed how he’d perform in year 2 here. But they left themselves an out, such that they could cut him in year 3 and still have net savings overall. So it’s not the worst case scenario, but yes, it could have been better.

 

[Family]

At the end of the day, they wouldn’t have restructured him if they thought he would have had a bad year. They would have restructured Judon instead, who did perform well and no one wants to cut this year. So yes, bad management, in that they poorly assessed how he’d perform in year 2 here. But they left themselves an out, such that they could cut him in year 3 and still have net savings overall. So it’s not the worst case scenario, but yes, it could have been better.

I clearly remember the day of restructure and the board (myself included) wondered why not someone else?

It wasn't a secret Smith was a bust after year one.

 

[hornetfb85]

Jonnu Smith will be on the Pats in 2023. They will not take on 12.8 mil in dead money. Next year a much higher chance. Dead Cap at 6.5 mil and savings of 12 mil.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

I clearly remember the day of restructure and the board (myself included) wondered why not someone else?

It wasn't a secret Smith was a bust after year one.

Yup, I was shocked they picked him at the time too. Clearly a bad choice, but they’re not forced into keeping him this year fortunately.

 

[Family]

Jonnu Smith will be on the Pats in 2023. They will not take on 12.8 mil in dead money.

Agreed.

But what would the dead money be without the restructure?

Would it be an easier decision to make?

 

[hornetfb85]

Agreed.

But what would the dead money be without the restructure?

Would it be an easier decision to make?

That I’m not real sure. Just basing off of Miguel’s tweets that dead money would be hard for BB to swallow.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Jonnu Smith will be on the Pats in 2023. They will not take on 12.8 mil in dead money.

Why not? It’s a sunk cost at this point. Would you rather the team pay a useless Jonnu $17.2m on the cap this year and take a dead cap hit of $6.4m in 2024, or would you rather they take a dead cap hit of $12.8m in 2023, save $3m on the cap now and use it to bring in someone useful, and have no further cap charges in 2024? That’s the decision here. You’re giving him an extra $10.8m because you don’t want to have a $12.8m dead cap hit this year. Is he worth that extra $10.8m? If so, keep him. If not, dump him now.

 

[patsinthesnow]

The pats have been more efficient out of 3 WRs than 2 TE. This is good news as the pats should opt to gain $3.6 million in cap space & get Jonnu Smith's 18 million in 2024 off the books. As @Hammer of Thor said he's not worth $10.8 million in future cap space.

 

[Sciz]

People get so overworked about when money hits the cap that they lose sight of how much money is hitting the cap overall. Keeping Smith at his current $11M means that’s another $11M that has to hit the cap at some point. The immediate cap implications are less important than just saying that you don’t want to pay the guy $11M.

In slightly rounded terms, Smith’s restructure pushed $5.3M cap hit from 2022 to $2.65M in 2023 and $2.65M in 2024. That 2023 portion happens whether he’s on the roster or not. If he’s cut without the June 1 designation, then last year’s restructure means the extra $2.65M for 2024 will accelerate to 2023. Are people really throwing a tantrum about $2.65M? The original signing bonus ($3.75M cap hit in 2024 that would also accelerate to 2023 if cut) is a bigger issue, but again, see the previous paragraph.

The best outcome here is probably a pay cut with incentives to earn the money back. Smith has a fairly unique skill set and O’Brien has gotten production out of less skilled players before. Rosenhaus has already started negotiating his clients’ pay cuts this offseason (Aaron Jones from $16M down to $11M yesterday), and the Patriots have even negotiated with him on a tight end pay cut before (Dwayne Allen).

(This all assumes Corry’s report is accurate. It would surprise me if everybody else was wrong this whole time, but I also find it hard to see how Corry could be wrong given that it’s an article about what date the salary vests on, and there would be no vesting date if it was already fully guaranteed.)