No more guaranteed money for Jonnu Smith? [False alarm: Joel Corry somehow made this up, not correct]

[Hammer of Thor]

The pats have been more efficient out of 3 WRs than 2 TE. This is good news as the pats should opt to gain $3.6 million in cap space & get Jonnu Smith's 18 million in 2024 off the books. As @Hammer of Thor said he's not worth $10.8 million in future cap space.

The wrinkle here is that BOB was the guy that had great success with our 2 TE offense. Of course, that was Gronk and Hernandez and not Henry and Smith. But he was able to get it to work, and I wonder what he thinks - if Jonnu just sucks, or if McDaniels and Patricia/Judge/BB just weren’t able to use him correctly to get it to work?

 

[Wozzy]

You cut Jonnu tomorrow, who plays that H-Back (Hernandez, Keith Byars) role opposite Hunter Henry this season?

Jonnu's lack of production hasn't necessarily been a product of his inability to do the job... the offense around him has either had a rookie QB and passed less than just about any team in the league (2021), or has been an outright dumpster fire due to coaching (2022) who passed less than just about any team in the league.

I don't get the idea of judging TE/FB/H-Back's off receiving production alone anyway... blocking matters, especially for a team that only runs and rarely passes. The list of free agent TE's worth a damn is small, the list of guys who can flex into the backfield and play fullback is even smaller.

The offensive coaches and QB's have to be better at their job in 2023... period.

If you want to restructure Jonnu to open up cap space... fine, otherwise tell me who is playing his position in 2023 when you cut him?

 

[Ross12]

So the bottom line is Smith would be an easier cut without the restructure. They actually guaranteed him more money.

Wouldn't the team be better off restructuring someone they weren't likely to cut in 2023?

I consider that bad management.

They didn’t guarantee him more money. They converted salary he was already owed in 2022 into a signing bonus. He wasn’t getting cut in 2022 so he got the same amount of money either way, it’s just that now that money got spread out over 3 years instead of as his 2022 salary. It made his 2022 cap hit lower but his cap hits in subsequent years slightly higher, and his dead cap hit overall cumulatively higher if he’s cut years early because the prorations accelerate. It’s not bad management at all.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

You cut Jonnu tomorrow, who plays that H-Back (Hernandez, Keith Byars) role opposite Hunter Henry this season?

Jonnu's lack of production hasn't necessarily been a product of his inability to do the job... the offense around him has either had a rookie QB and passed less than just about any team in the league (2021), or has been an outright dumpster fire due to coaching (2022) who passed less than just about any team in the league.

I don't get the idea of judging TE/FB/H-Back's off receiving production alone anyway... blocking matters, especially for a team that only runs and rarely passes. The list of free agent TE's worth a damn is small, the list of guys who can flex into the backfield and play fullback is even smaller.

The offensive coaches and QB's have to be better at their job in 2023... period.

If you want to restructure Jonnu to open up cap space... fine, otherwise tell me who is playing his position in 2023 when you cut him?

A couple of choices here -

As @patsinthesnow said, they’ve performed a lot better recently out of 3WR than 2 TE. Perhaps they just go that route and bring in a traditional FB (Jakob Johnson is a free agent for example) or a cheap flex guy in free agency.

Alternatively, this is shaping up to be a very, very strong TE class, potentially the best in years. Check out BCG’s thread on TEs here: BGC 2023 TE/PTP Thread. Darnell Washington from Georgia may fit everything we want. I’d love to grab the talent if it’s there, and not pass on it because we have a highly paid TE who, at the end of the day, has had only 1 truly productive season in his career to date.

 

[Family]

They didn’t guarantee him more money. They converted salary he was already owed in 2022 into a signing bonus. He wasn’t getting cut in 2022 so he got the same amount of money either way, it’s just that now that money got spread out over 3 years instead of as his 2022 salary. It made his 2022 cap hit lower but his cap hits in subsequent years slightly higher, and his dead cap hit overall cumulatively higher if he’s cut years early because the prorations accelerate. It’s not bad management at all.

Wouldn't the team be better off pushing cap forward with someone who didn't have a 6.25 million dollar out the next season, while being a reasonable-cut candidate?

They made flexibility for themselves more difficult, unless they were definitely keeping him.

If this report is true, I stand by bad management.

 

[Wozzy]

A couple of choices here -

As @patsinthesnow said, they’ve performed a lot better recently out of 3WR than 2 TE. Perhaps they just go that route and bring in a traditional FB (Jakob Johnson is a free agent for example) or a cheap flex guy in free agency.

Alternatively, this is shaping up to be a very, very strong TE class, potentially the best in years. Check out BCG’s thread on TEs here: BGC 2023 TE/PTP Thread. Darnell Washington from Georgia may fit everything we want. I’d love to grab the talent if it’s there, and not pass on it because we have a highly paid TE who, at the end of the day, has had only 1 truly productive season in his career to date.

Even if they brought a FB back, they'd have to find another TE or two.

Also what is the dead cap hit if they cut Jonnu, is that worth it? They've already paid him the bulk of his guaranteed money.

Rookie TE's have a reputation for taking a long time to develop, there's a few exception among the best of the best but they're few and far between. Cole Kmet was the first TE drafted in 2020 and started to become a decent TE in year two, he arrived in year three. The Pats need OT help badly, they should use their 1st round picks there. I don't think we'll be taking the best TE in this draft class.

Among the free agent class, I like the two of the youngest in Foster Moreau (25) and Brock Wright (24) a lot as value free agents, but both of their teams have cap space and can sign them pretty easily.

 

[Real fan 02]

According to Joel Corry, Jonnu Smith's salary guarantees are only for injury until March 17.

Agent's Take: 2023 NFL offseason dates to know for free agency, contract options, franchise tags

The Patriots so far have given him $27 million for two seasons (only about $13 million has hit the cap, so there's about $14 million in dead money).

If they keep him, he gets $10 million more.

There's no way he's not cut before March 17 is there?

He has been paid as you stated 27 mill already.. so... if he's cut I'd imagine the 14 mill they'd have to eat... part of me feels like.. we should allow to see how he's used this season with the BOB offense..

I'd have to imagine he can't be any worse than the past few seasons.. if he can become the player he was signed to be then this offense can take off.. gives us so many more options with his skill set..

 

[MagicMarker]

I think we're over complicating this. The Patriots gave Smith $27 million over his first two seasons. If they keep him, it will be $37 million over three. Is he worth giving him $10 million. I'd say no.

As far as the restructure goes, as I recall they didn't give him any more money, any more guarantees or add any years. All they did was recharacterize $8 million of salary as signing bonus moving the allocation of some of those dollars to future years. True, if they cut him now they'll have more dead money in 2023, but if they had restructured someone else someone else would have a higher cap number in 2023.

In the end, it all comes out in the wash. Over the life of the contract total cash = total cap. Dead money is a sunk cost.

 

[Wozzy]

Does anyone remember 2019 when we had no TE’s? Seriously… our best TE was 39 year old Ben Watson.

If they can cut Jonnu and already have replacements in place or an idea of who they’ll target in free agency then fine… work some magic.

The TE position isn’t as easy to replace as some imagine. They’re part OL and part WR and have to do both jobs well. Rookie TE’s are notoriously difficult to find.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Even if they brought a FB back, they'd have to find another TE or two.

Also what is the dead cap hit if they cut Jonnu, is that worth it? They've already paid him the bulk of his guaranteed money.

Rookie TE's have a reputation for taking a long time to develop, there's a few exception among the best of the best but they're few and far between. Cole Kmet was the first TE drafted in 2020 and started to become a decent TE in year two, he arrived in year three. The Pats need OT help badly, they should use their 1st round picks there. I don't think we'll be taking the best TE in this draft class.

Among the free agent class, I like the two of the youngest in Foster Moreau (25) and Brock Wright (24) a lot as value free agents, but both of their teams have cap space and can sign them pretty easily.

Regarding the dead cap hit - there are $23.6m in total 2023 and 2024 cap charges if you keep him here in 2023 and cut him in 2024. If you cut him now, there’s a $12.8m cap charge in 2023 and nothing in 2024. So it’s an extra $10.8m to keep him this year. Is he worth that?

I understand your point about relying of rookies, and the OT situation. I get it. I’ve long been an advocate of trying to have reasonable solutions at all positions after free agency so you’re free to draft the best talent fit for the team and allow them time to develop. That may not be possible this year, so we might need to hope for a plug and play tackle early.

The ideal solution would be if Jonnu agreed to a pay cut where his $10m 2023 base salary was reduced to $4m and he could earn back the other $6m in incentIves (which would be set as not-likely-to-be-earned for 2023 cap purposes). If he reaches those incentives, we’ll get those cap charges back, but he’ll also be playing well so it won’t be an issue. Whether or not he’s willing to do that would depend on his agent’s sense of whether he could do better than that as a free agent. We’ll see.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Does anyone remember 2019 when we had no TE’s? Seriously… our best TE was 39 year old Ben Watson.

If they can cut Jonnu and already have replacements in place or an idea of who they’ll target in free agency then fine… work some magic.

The TE position isn’t as easy to replace as some imagine. They’re part OL and part WR and have to do both jobs well. Rookie TE’s are notoriously difficult to find.

The 2019 TE situation was caused by Gronk’s sudden retirement *after* free agency started. They were handicapped.

The 2020 TE situation was the real problem. When they did nothing in FA and tried to address it with 2 rookies. Neither of them developed here, although Asiasi carved out a role with the Bengals.

if we cut Jonnu, we still have Henry, and we have time to look at lesser secondary options in free agency before relying on the draft.

 

[DaBruinz]

They restructured his contract in 2022 to create cap space in 2022. They apparently structured it where they made more money guaranteed in 2023 but only for injury. The money does not become fully guaranteed until March 17th, so they can seemingly get out of that guaranteed cash by releasing or trading him and gain $5M in cap space in 2023. This would mean they saved cap space in 2022 and again in 2023. Where is the horrible management here?

I believe that Corry's information is incorrect. OTC has the 6.5M FULLY guaranteed. Not just guaranteed for injury. Best way to find out for certain is to hop on to Twitter and ask @patscap, Miguel Benzan.

 

[Ross12]

I believe that Corry's information is incorrect. OTC has the 6.5M FULLY guaranteed. Not just guaranteed for injury. Best way to find out for certain is to hop on to Twitter and ask @patscap, Miguel Benzan.

Miguel has said that he believes Joel Corry, it’s on page 1 somewhere.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

If we cut him now, would we still have the $6m dead cap hit in 2024 or do we get all 18m back that year?

 

[Ross12]

I think we're over complicating this. The Patriots gave Smith $27 million over his first two seasons. If they keep him, it will be $37 million over three. Is he worth giving him $10 million. I'd say no.

As far as the restructure goes, as I recall they didn't give him any more money, any more guarantees or add any years. All they did was recharacterize $8 million of salary as signing bonus moving the allocation of some of those dollars to future years. True, if they cut him now they'll have more dead money in 2023, but if they had restructured someone else someone else would have a higher cap number in 2023.

In the end, it all comes out in the wash. Over the life of the contract total cash = total cap. Dead money is a sunk cost.

Exactly.

It’s taking the same amount of money already owed to Jonnu in 2022 and spreading out over a couple future years that he’s already signed for. If they didn’t do that then they would’ve still paid that same amount of money to him in 2022 instead of 2023 and 2024 (or just 2023 if he’s cut and the money accelerates). If they restructured someone else then they’d have paid that player less in 2022 and more in 2023. It’s all the same amount of money. They saved themselves cap in 2022 at the expense of the equal amount of cap lost in 2023 for a player that they knew they’d at least be keeping in 2022. If they didn’t restructure him in 2022 and cut him in 2023 they’d have ended up paying the same exact total dollars but with more spent in 2022 and less spent in 2023. What’s the problem?

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Neither TE has done much since neither TE has had the ball thrown his way much.
Complete mismanagement of assets. Henry is a mid-route runner, and is very smooth at it. He gets open.
Smith is a YAC guy. YAC doesn't matter when you're thrown the ball less than 3 times per game.

Keep in mind that both of these guys were rated in the top 10 TE's in the league when they came here, and for some mysterious reason, neither were used.

Their production/numbers are very similar to their production/numbers before they came to New England. Henry is a pretty good blocker who gets 500-600 yards per season; Smith is a move tight end who simply isn't good enough to become a great one and is a role player who gets you about 200-300 yards per season. Henry was an overpay but maybe justified because of the extreme need at the position. Smith was an insanely idiotic deal. It's two years later and you're still trying to justify these moves by putting it on the coaches/gameplans. If either player was good enough to get more targets, they'd be getting more targets.

 

[50-yard-line]

Why not? It’s a sunk cost at this point. Would you rather the team pay a useless Jonnu $17.2m on the cap this year and take a dead cap hit of $6.4m in 2024, or would you rather they take a dead cap hit of $12.8m in 2023, save $3m on the cap now and use it to bring in someone useful, and have no further cap charges in 2024? That’s the decision here. You’re giving him an extra $10.8m because you don’t want to have a $12.8m dead cap hit this year. Is he worth that extra $10.8m? If so, keep him. If not, dump him now.

Sure, because you'll upgrade a TE for $3m in the NFL in 2023.

To answer you're question, I'd rather keep it as is AND use the guy. I don't know how you blame skill players for not getting targets UNLESS you can show me where they're screwing up routes, or not getting targets or dropping too many passes. I've never heard any of that with Henry and Smith. They're just invisible in an offense where they're designed to be invisible, which is mind-bogglingly stupid.

It's like draft Harry when you have a QB known for throwing to whoever's open. and doesn't throw jump balls. Which of the 9 million scouting reports would make someone think that HE was a fit here?
They paid Smith and Henry and we, who knew the players, were all ecstatic - and rightly so. Then they iced them out, for the most part. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt for the first year, with a rookie QB, but last year was just a travesty.

Go look at the TD Smith got against Tampa Bay. Look at the play design. Worked like a charm (like the 2 we saw the Chiefs run in the SB.
Have they, with their stellar red-zone offense *coughcough*, ever run that play since?

 

[50-yard-line]

You cut Jonnu tomorrow, who plays that H-Back (Hernandez, Keith Byars) role opposite Hunter Henry this season?

Jonnu's lack of production hasn't necessarily been a product of his inability to do the job... the offense around him has either had a rookie QB and passed less than just about any team in the league (2021), or has been an outright dumpster fire due to coaching (2022) who passed less than just about any team in the league.

I don't get the idea of judging TE/FB/H-Back's off receiving production alone anyway... blocking matters, especially for a team that only runs and rarely passes. The list of free agent TE's worth a damn is small, the list of guys who can flex into the backfield and play fullback is even smaller.

The offensive coaches and QB's have to be better at their job in 2023... period.

If you want to restructure Jonnu to open up cap space... fine, otherwise tell me who is playing his position in 2023 when you cut him?

Exactly this.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Sure, because you'll upgrade a TE for $3m in the NFL in 2023.

$3m isn’t the upgrade cost though. You’re paying $10.8m for Smith in 2023. Can you upgrade him for $10.8m or less? That’s the question. The $3m of savings is a bit of a red herring. That’s a cap accounting issue that can be worked around - for instance, getting $5m back by restructuring Judon. The issue is if you think Smith himself can produce at a $10.8m value.

To answer you're question, I'd rather keep it as is AND use the guy. I don't know how you blame skill players for not getting targets UNLESS you can show me where they're screwing up routes, or not getting targets or dropping too many passes. I've never heard any of that with Henry and Smith. They're just invisible in an offense where they're designed to be invisible, which is mind-bogglingly stupid.

It's like draft Harry when you have a QB known for throwing to whoever's open. and doesn't throw jump balls. Which of the 9 million scouting reports would make someone think that HE was a fit here?
They paid Smith and Henry and we, who knew the players, were all ecstatic - and rightly so. Then they iced them out, for the most part. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt for the first year, with a rookie QB, but last year was just a travesty.

Go look at the TD Smith got against Tampa Bay. Look at the play design. Worked like a charm (like the 2 we saw the Chiefs run in the SB.
Have they, with their stellar red-zone offense *coughcough*, ever run that play since?

And that’s fair — you’re effective saying the problem was with the offensive coaches and not Smith, and so an extra $10.8m is fair value for what you think he can produce. My concern is that he struggled overall in 2021 when we had a real OC. Maybe BOB will be able to use him better than Josh did. I sure hope you’re right.

 

[50-yard-line]

$3m isn’t the upgrade cost though. You’re paying $10.8m for Smith in 2023. Can you upgrade him for $10.8m or less? That’s the question. The $3m of savings is a bit of a red herring. That’s a cap accounting issue that can be worked around - for instance, getting $5m back by restructuring Judon. The issue is if you think Smith himself can produce at a $10.8m value.

They save $12 million cutting him next year, per Miguel's page. They save 4.5 cutting him this year. His contract is designed for cut/renegotiate next year, from what I can see.

And that’s fair — you’re effective saying the problem was with the offensive coaches and not Smith, and so an extra $10.8m is fair value for what you think he can produce. My concern is that he struggled overall in 2021 when we had a real OC. Maybe BOB will be able to use him better than Josh did. I sure hope you’re right.

I'm absolutely saying that. Unless there's something going on behind the scenes with his game that I haven't seen or read about, the Patriots lack of usage of their TEs these last two years has been criminally stupid. I watched Smith catch a little screen this year and fight like a madman for 9 yards and a first down. I watched him break several screens/short outs for big gains last year, only to have them called back on ticky-tack holding penalties.

He's a YAC weapon. Henry is a smooth Kelce-light TE weapon. BB can get the most out of any LB, DL, CB (Ayers, Hicks, Jackson and Butler) on that side of the ball. Dante made JAGS look like all-pros on the OL.

Brady in his mid-years made every receiver WAY better. Andy Reid makes his skill players superstars.

The Patriots for several years now are where WRs and TEs go to die.