- Joined
- Aug 13, 2005
- Messages
- 19,360
- Reaction score
- 13,034
Some quick thoughts, insightful analysis and wild guesses on the NFL’s week five games.
Chicago Bears (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (2-2) ★★★★
Early game on FOX; Thom Brennaman, David Diehl
Chicago (23.0 points per game, 18th; 349 yards per game, 20th) has struggled a bit on offense due to the situation with their offensive line. LG Matt Slauson and C Roberto Garza have missed three games, and to add gasoline to the fire wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery have been nicked up as well. Carolina’s defense is reeling as well, allowing 75 points in their last two games. Ironically the big question mark coming into the season was at wide receiver but Kelvin Benjamin – the fourth WR drafted last spring – has quieted that concern. Instead, the supposed strength, at running back, has become a problem, with Cam Newton less than 100% and the Panthers down to Darrin Reaves, Chris Ogbonnaya and Fozzy Whittaker replacing the injured DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert. Luke Kuechly is great, but with Greg Hardy inactive, DE Charles Johnson nursing a hip flexor and DE Frank Alexander suspended, this isn’t the same dominating defense we saw last year.
Pick • Bears 23, Panthers 20
Bears +3
under 45½
Cleveland Browns (1-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-3) ★★
Early game on CBS; Andrew Catalon, Steve Tasker
My first inclination was to simply go against the Titans, who have looked progressively worse after I had thought a couple months ago that they might challenge the Colts for the division title. The Browns on the other hand have defeated the Saints and lost two games on field goals as time expired, but I’m not ready to go all-in with Cleveland; their defense has regressed significantly from last year. The Browns are allowing 428 yards per game (30th in the NFL), 6.4 yards per play (31st), 154 rushing yards per game (29th), 5.2 yards per rush (31st) and 272 passing yards per game (27th). Tennessee has lost three in a row by a combined score of 100-34, but the last two games were on the road against quality opponents (Cincinnati and Indianapolis). This could easily go either way, but I’ll give a very slight lean to the Titans here.
Pick • Titans 27, Browns 24
Titans -1
over 44½
St. Louis Rams (1-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) ★★★
Early game on FOX; Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston
My initial thoughts were that Philadelphia was the obvious pick in this game, but after re-watching last week’s game between the Eagles and Niners I have my doubts. Injuries have depleted Philly’s offensive line, and the 49ers simply crushed them up front. Yes, the Eagles only lost by five on the road to a good team – but the offense did not score a single point. Three non-offensive touchdowns is an extreme rarity, and the St. Louis front seven is just as good, if not better than San Francisco’s. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Rams win this game.
Pick • Eagles 20, Rams 17
Rams +7
under 48½
Atlanta Falcons (2-2) at New York Giants (2-2) ★★
Early game on FOX; Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch
The Giants opened as 2½ point favorites, but based on the focus on the most recent games (Atlanta lost to Minnesota by 13 while the Giants crushed Washington 45-14), it quickly moved up two points. After a horrible game in week one where he looked just as bad as he was in 2013, Eli Manning has settled down with 811 yards passing, 8 touchdowns to three interceptions, and a completion rate above 70% over the least three games. The Atlanta defense is as putrid as it was last year: the Falcons are 29th in points allowed (28.3), 31st in yards allowed (430), 30th in passing yards (276 per game), 31st in yards per pass (8.6) and 28th against the run (154 yards per game). However, the Falcons have rediscovered their offense, with a league-best 44 yards per game and second-best 32.8 points per game. Even though Atlanta is a dome team playing outdoors on the road, I still feel they are the better team. I’m expecting a bounce-back game after last week’s debacle, while the Giants prove that they are not quite as good as they looked last week.
Pick • Falcons 27, Giants 24
Falcons +4
over 50½
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) at New Orleans Saints (1-3) ★★★
Early game on FOX; **** Stockton, Kirk Morrison
Everyone is asking what’s wrong with the Saints, but the only problem thus far has been their schedule. In the Drew Brees era, they are a completely different team at home in comparison to on the road, with probably a larger delta in this regard than any other NFL team. New Orleans opened up with three of their first four games away from cajun country, and lo and behold, they lost all three of those away games. Now they are back at home, playing a Tampa Bay team that will probably have a top-five draft slot next spring. Focus on the teams rather than the final scores of last week’s games, and it’s easy to say that this game shouldn’t be close.
Pick • Saints 35, Bucs 13
Saints -10
under 48½
Houston Texans (3-1) at Dallas Cowboys (3-1) ★★★★
Early game on CBS; Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts
One year ago the Dallas defense was historically bad, allowing 415 yards and 27 points per game, while at the same time the Texans plummeted from Super Bowl contender to a league-worst 2-14 record. Based on the 2013 season both teams were written off from discussions involving 2014 playoff contenders, but here they both are at 3-1 one quarter of the way through the season – and each club has an early-season contender for MVP. JJ Watt was the difference between a loss and a victory last week, with a crucial pick-six and an incredible nine quarterback knockdowns to defeat the Bills. DeMarco Murray has taken the pressure off Tony Romo – who has done a good job of avoiding turnovers since week one – to do too much, leading the NFL with a whopping 165 yards rushing per game. The Dallas offensive line has done a stellar job of opening up running lanes for Murray, and that could be just enough to neutralize Watt and the Houston defense.
Pick • Cowboys 24, Texans 21
Texans +6½
under 47½
Buffalo Bills (2-2) at Detroit Lions (3-1) ★★★
Early game on FOX; Sam Rosen, Ronde Barber
While the switch from E.J. Manuel to Kyle Orton is a positive for Buffalo, it won’t be enough for this road game this week. Detroit’s defense is allowing an NFL 4th-best 15.5 points per game and a league-best 267 yards per game. Buffalo has a good defense too, but the Lions have a much better offense – plus they are playing at home.
Pick • Lions 20, Bills 13
Lions -6½
under 44½
Chicago Bears (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (2-2) ★★★★
Early game on FOX; Thom Brennaman, David Diehl
Chicago (23.0 points per game, 18th; 349 yards per game, 20th) has struggled a bit on offense due to the situation with their offensive line. LG Matt Slauson and C Roberto Garza have missed three games, and to add gasoline to the fire wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery have been nicked up as well. Carolina’s defense is reeling as well, allowing 75 points in their last two games. Ironically the big question mark coming into the season was at wide receiver but Kelvin Benjamin – the fourth WR drafted last spring – has quieted that concern. Instead, the supposed strength, at running back, has become a problem, with Cam Newton less than 100% and the Panthers down to Darrin Reaves, Chris Ogbonnaya and Fozzy Whittaker replacing the injured DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert. Luke Kuechly is great, but with Greg Hardy inactive, DE Charles Johnson nursing a hip flexor and DE Frank Alexander suspended, this isn’t the same dominating defense we saw last year.
Pick • Bears 23, Panthers 20
Bears +3
under 45½
Cleveland Browns (1-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-3) ★★
Early game on CBS; Andrew Catalon, Steve Tasker
My first inclination was to simply go against the Titans, who have looked progressively worse after I had thought a couple months ago that they might challenge the Colts for the division title. The Browns on the other hand have defeated the Saints and lost two games on field goals as time expired, but I’m not ready to go all-in with Cleveland; their defense has regressed significantly from last year. The Browns are allowing 428 yards per game (30th in the NFL), 6.4 yards per play (31st), 154 rushing yards per game (29th), 5.2 yards per rush (31st) and 272 passing yards per game (27th). Tennessee has lost three in a row by a combined score of 100-34, but the last two games were on the road against quality opponents (Cincinnati and Indianapolis). This could easily go either way, but I’ll give a very slight lean to the Titans here.
Pick • Titans 27, Browns 24
Titans -1
over 44½
St. Louis Rams (1-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) ★★★
Early game on FOX; Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston
My initial thoughts were that Philadelphia was the obvious pick in this game, but after re-watching last week’s game between the Eagles and Niners I have my doubts. Injuries have depleted Philly’s offensive line, and the 49ers simply crushed them up front. Yes, the Eagles only lost by five on the road to a good team – but the offense did not score a single point. Three non-offensive touchdowns is an extreme rarity, and the St. Louis front seven is just as good, if not better than San Francisco’s. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Rams win this game.
Pick • Eagles 20, Rams 17
Rams +7
under 48½
Atlanta Falcons (2-2) at New York Giants (2-2) ★★
Early game on FOX; Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch
The Giants opened as 2½ point favorites, but based on the focus on the most recent games (Atlanta lost to Minnesota by 13 while the Giants crushed Washington 45-14), it quickly moved up two points. After a horrible game in week one where he looked just as bad as he was in 2013, Eli Manning has settled down with 811 yards passing, 8 touchdowns to three interceptions, and a completion rate above 70% over the least three games. The Atlanta defense is as putrid as it was last year: the Falcons are 29th in points allowed (28.3), 31st in yards allowed (430), 30th in passing yards (276 per game), 31st in yards per pass (8.6) and 28th against the run (154 yards per game). However, the Falcons have rediscovered their offense, with a league-best 44 yards per game and second-best 32.8 points per game. Even though Atlanta is a dome team playing outdoors on the road, I still feel they are the better team. I’m expecting a bounce-back game after last week’s debacle, while the Giants prove that they are not quite as good as they looked last week.
Pick • Falcons 27, Giants 24
Falcons +4
over 50½
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) at New Orleans Saints (1-3) ★★★
Early game on FOX; **** Stockton, Kirk Morrison
Everyone is asking what’s wrong with the Saints, but the only problem thus far has been their schedule. In the Drew Brees era, they are a completely different team at home in comparison to on the road, with probably a larger delta in this regard than any other NFL team. New Orleans opened up with three of their first four games away from cajun country, and lo and behold, they lost all three of those away games. Now they are back at home, playing a Tampa Bay team that will probably have a top-five draft slot next spring. Focus on the teams rather than the final scores of last week’s games, and it’s easy to say that this game shouldn’t be close.
Pick • Saints 35, Bucs 13
Saints -10
under 48½
Houston Texans (3-1) at Dallas Cowboys (3-1) ★★★★
Early game on CBS; Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts
One year ago the Dallas defense was historically bad, allowing 415 yards and 27 points per game, while at the same time the Texans plummeted from Super Bowl contender to a league-worst 2-14 record. Based on the 2013 season both teams were written off from discussions involving 2014 playoff contenders, but here they both are at 3-1 one quarter of the way through the season – and each club has an early-season contender for MVP. JJ Watt was the difference between a loss and a victory last week, with a crucial pick-six and an incredible nine quarterback knockdowns to defeat the Bills. DeMarco Murray has taken the pressure off Tony Romo – who has done a good job of avoiding turnovers since week one – to do too much, leading the NFL with a whopping 165 yards rushing per game. The Dallas offensive line has done a stellar job of opening up running lanes for Murray, and that could be just enough to neutralize Watt and the Houston defense.
Pick • Cowboys 24, Texans 21
Texans +6½
under 47½
Buffalo Bills (2-2) at Detroit Lions (3-1) ★★★
Early game on FOX; Sam Rosen, Ronde Barber
While the switch from E.J. Manuel to Kyle Orton is a positive for Buffalo, it won’t be enough for this road game this week. Detroit’s defense is allowing an NFL 4th-best 15.5 points per game and a league-best 267 yards per game. Buffalo has a good defense too, but the Lions have a much better offense – plus they are playing at home.
Pick • Lions 20, Bills 13
Lions -6½
under 44½
