What's wrong with what I said? If the Jags or Colts lose today, Jets clinch.
If the three teams finish with the records I posted, Jets don't make playoffs.
You are absolutely correct Pete, and here is why.
For the Jets to not make the playoffs other team(s) would have to be a wildcard at 10-6 or better since the Jets already have ten wins.
KC could finish 11-5 or 10-6, but if they do then they win the AFCW; they have the tiebreaker over SD. Therefore the Chiefs cannot knock the Jets out of the playoffs.
SD could finish 10-6 but the Jets would have the tiebreaker (strength of victory) over them, so they can't knock the Jets out of the playoffs.
That leaves the 2nd place AFCN team (Steelers or Ravens) and 2nd place AFCS team (Colts or Jaguars). If the Jets and Steelers are tied then that means they have 11 wins, so the Jaguars or Colts could not be tied with them - and the Jets would be in the playoffs.
As for Baltimore the Ravens would take a two-way tiebreaker over the Jets - but would lose out on a 3-way tiebreaker with Jacksonville also included. However if it's only a two-way tiebreaker then the Jets are in: two wildcard teams.
There cannot be a 3-way tie including Indy because the Colts cannot be 10-6 and in a wildcard spot - because they win the AFCS over Jacksonville at 10-6.
So after all that, the only scenario where the Jets do not make the playoffs would be to finish with a record where Jacksonville can knock them out of a wildcard spot. For that to happen Jacksonville must go 2-0 - and for them to be a wildcard Indy must also go 2-0. Of course the Jets must go 0-2 as well for them to be tied at 10-6.
Bottom line is that for the Jets to miss the playoffs, they have to go 0-2, PLUS Indy goes 2-0, PLUS Jacksonville goes 2-0. A win by the Jets OR a loss by the Colts OR a loss by the Jaguars, and the Jets are in the playoffs.
