NFL rumored to be considering 14 game season starting in October

[QuantumMechanic]

As for models “constantly changing”, a lot of that is because they are reacting to what government is doing. They predict X deaths on the assumption of a certain level of lockdown. Then a bunch of governors decide to “reopen”. Of course the models’ predictions are going to change because they now have to take into account the loosening of restrictions.

 

[Teej]

Starting the season in October is counterintuitive to the suspected arc of the Covid virus. It is expected to WANE during the summer months and then ramp up in the fall when temperatures plummet. Therefore it makes the most sense to start the season ON TIME in September and monitor the situation as the season moves into the fall months, calling a halt to play if the virus reappears virulently.

Viruses typically wane in the warmer months due in part to lower numbers of people in close proximity to one another. Red Sox games in the summer could cause a spike to the arc, and anything else with thousands of people in close proximity to each other will be testing the odds. That includes Pats games in September. I've had summer colds and I wasn't patient #1. I wouldn't count on popular opinion coming to the Patriots rescue, it didn't get the Pats stadium built in Boston. Also, politicians care about keeping their job and I doubt the governor wants his neck in the noose for entertainment reasons but we'll see.

Flu and cold viruses tend to peak in the colder months and slow down during the summer. Despite popular belief, this has little to do with a virus' ability to survive warmer temperatures and more to do with how people's behaviors change during the seasons. During the winter, people tend to congregate and stay inside, increasing the number potentially exposed to one who is infected and contagious as well as meeting in large groups in places like schools and universities. "Coronaviruses tend to be associated with winter because of how they're spread," Elizabeth McGraw, director for the Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics at Pennsylvania State University, told NPR.

 

[moosekill]

People under 40 have basically no risk of death, probably more likely to get killed driving to the stadium. In most places better than 1/2 of the deaths are in nursing homes. These players will be able to play, and to think anything else is foolish. Old fat guys like us in the stands, well I can see why they might want to wait a bit on having huge gatherings. In the end the question will be, do we have football with no fans in the stadium. I would think tv revenues would easily make that work, but we will see.

 

[jah]

People under 40 have basically no risk of death, probably more likely to get killed driving to the stadium. In most places better than 1/2 of the deaths are in nursing homes. These players will be able to play, and to think anything else is foolish. Old fat guys like us in the stands, well I can see why they might want to wait a bit on having huge gatherings. In the end the question will be, do we have football with no fans in the stadium. I would think tv revenues would easily make that work, but we will see.

The concern isn't the players but rather their families. Well, linemen too. You say young people won't die, but fat young people are dying.

 

[luuked]

I was looking at the camp reopening guidelines. The daily screening they’re going to be doing is fever-based.

haha
HaHaHa!
HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

Yeah, it’s ultimately gonna be a zero-game season. I just hope not too many players die or get their health permanently effed up before the NFL realizes that.

I agree that the entire timing of the season depends on how fast reliable testing can get sorted out. Without testing and just relying on data points like temperature I don't see a reasonable way to do much.

 

[Teej]

People under 40 have basically no risk of death, probably more likely to get killed driving to the stadium. In most places better than 1/2 of the deaths are in nursing homes. These players will be able to play, and to think anything else is foolish. Old fat guys like us in the stands, well I can see why they might want to wait a bit on having huge gatherings. In the end the question will be, do we have football with no fans in the stadium. I would think tv revenues would easily make that work, but we will see.

The verdict hasn't come in yet, but a Kawasaki type syndrome is affecting young children at the precise time Covid is happening, so anectdotally the timing shows it's a possible cause. At the very least, it has to be of concern to players wanting to protect their own families. Sometimes these parental worries take on a life of their own, such as childhood vaccines and worries about autism. At this point there's a huge unknown quality to Covid, and I wouldn't knowingly expose my kids to it if it was in my control. There's a lot of players who, under current economic conditions, don't have to work another day in their life so don't bet the house on them obeying Goodell.

 

[moosekill]

The concern isn't the players but rather their families. Well, linemen too. You say young people won't die, but fat young people are dying.

No, fat young people aren't dying, basically no one under 40 is dying, unless there is a major underlying issue. If you are really sick and get it, yes that is bad, but otherwise, stay away from your grand parents and don't go to the nursing homes and you will be fine.

 

[XLIX]

Viruses typically wane in the warmer months due in part to lower numbers of people in close proximity to one another. Red Sox games in the summer could cause a spike to the arc, and anything else with thousands of people in close proximity to each other will be testing the odds. That includes Pats games in September. I've had summer colds and I wasn't patient #1. I wouldn't count on popular opinion coming to the Patriots rescue, it didn't get the Pats stadium built in Boston. Also, politicians care about keeping their job and I doubt the governor wants his neck in the noose for entertainment reasons but we'll see.

Flu and cold viruses tend to peak in the colder months and slow down during the summer. Despite popular belief, this has little to do with a virus' ability to survive warmer temperatures and more to do with how people's behaviors change during the seasons. During the winter, people tend to congregate and stay inside, increasing the number potentially exposed to one who is infected and contagious as well as meeting in large groups in places like schools and universities. "Coronaviruses tend to be associated with winter because of how they're spread," Elizabeth McGraw, director for the Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics at Pennsylvania State University, told NPR.

I’m calling bull on the above. I’ve read countless articles (and papers) which directly contradict what is said above. There are factors beyond mere behavior which inhibits the spread of seasonal viruses.

There are studies demonstrating that this particular virus - like so many others of its type - does not “survive” as long in direct sunlight and also does not spread as easily in higher humidity.

Pick an article; they all share the same conclusion:

covid sunlight humidity - Google Search

 

[XLIX]

The concern isn't the players but rather their families. Well, linemen too. You say young people won't die, but fat young people are dying.

This statement needs clarification. A study demonstrated that extreme obesity is a risk factor, but please note it was *extreme* obesity. An individual is considered obese at a BMI of 30. The study involved looking at people with a BMI or 40 or higher.

One could argue some lineman fit that range. I think the Union needs to make some decisions regarding precisely what they *want* to do.

 

[libra957]

From 14 games to 17 games, what a great way to start the decade.

 

[Bradybranch]

Doing what, sitting your fat ass on a couch stuffing your face? Give me a break tough guy. I recommend you stay with your 2nd favorite activity, watching porn.

Projection much?

 

[Teej]

I’m calling bull on the above. I’ve read countless articles (and papers) which directly contradict what is said above. There are factors beyond mere behavior which inhibits the spread of seasonal viruses.

There are studies demonstrating that this particular virus - like so many others of its type - does not “survive” as long in direct sunlight and also does not spread as easily in higher humidity.

Pick an article; they all share the same conclusion:

covid sunlight humidity - Google Search

OMG, he's calling bull...it must be so! Sorry but you must have missed this article below and the only bull is you saying you read "countless articles"...maybe you're math challenged??? That being said, below are some tidbits showing the flaws in your position due to the unknown...from the first Google search results page:

Will warm weather really kill off Covid-19?

Many experts, however, have already cautioned against banking too much on the virus dying down over the summer. And they are right to be cautious. The virus that causes Covid-19 – which has been officially named SARS-CoV-2 – is too new to have any firm data on how cases will change with the seasons.

There are some early hints that Covid-19 may also vary with the seasons. The spread of outbreaks of the new disease around the world seems to suggest it has a preference for cool and dry conditions, although it is worth noting that the virus has appeared in countries with a wide range of climates, including hot humid ones.

Pandemics often don’t follow the same seasonal patterns seen in more normal outbreaks. Spanish flu, for example, peaked during the summer months, while most flu outbreaks occur during the winter. (Read more about what Spanish flu can teach us about Covid-19.)

“Eventually we would expect to see Covid-19 becoming endemic,” says Jan Albert, a professor of infectious disease control who specialises in viruses at the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm. “And it would be really surprising if it didn't show seasonality then. The big question is whether the sensitivity of this virus to [the seasons] will influence its capacity to spread in a pandemic situation.

We need to be cautious, therefore, when using what we know about the seasonal behaviour of other coronaviruses to make predictions about the current Covid-19 pandemic.

“It is reasonable to expect the two viruses(Sars-Cov-2 and Covid 19)will share similar behaviour,” he says. “But this is not a one-variable equation. The virus spreads from human to human. The more humans at any given place and the more they get into contact with each other, the more infections there will be. Their behaviour is key to understanding the propagation of the virus.”

But there have been considerable numbers of cases in tropical regions, too. A recent analysis of the spread of the virus in Asia by researchers at Harvard Medical School suggests that this pandemic coronavirus will be less sensitive to the weather than many hope.

They conclude that the rapid growth of cases in cold and dry provinces of China, such as Jilin and Heilongjiang, alongside the rate of transmission in tropical locations, such as Guangxi and Singapore, suggest increases in temperature and humidity in the spring and summer will not lead to a decline in cases. They say it underlines the need for extensive public health interventions to control the disease. (Read more about why social distancing is so important.)

There is stronger evidence, however, that humidity can have a greater impact on our vulnerability to disease. When the air is particularly dry, it is thought to reduce the amount of mucus coating our lungs and airways. This sticky secretion forms a natural defence against infections and with less of it, we are more vulnerable to viruses.

Even if Covid-19 does show some seasonal variability, it is unlikely to disappear entirely over the summer months, as some have suggested. But a dip in cases might bring some benefits.

 

[moosekill]

Nearly 90 percent of the coronavirus deaths in Connecticut last week were nursing home patients

Nursing home residents may account for one-half of all U.S. coronavirus deaths

Expert say — and initial reports from European countries suggest — once the pandemic has subsides, roughly half of all deaths may be found to have occurred in assisted living homes.

 

[moosekill]

Last week a 42 year old died in Maine, we have about 60 deaths so far, so it is rather easy to track. Headlines in the paper proclaimed a Covid-19 death. He did actually have Covid-19, and he did die, which is a tragedy. He was a fireman, had been doing strenuous labor after being at a fire, and had a heart attack and passed away. He is counted as a Covid death, however, since all of the numbers by the CDC are people who passed away while having Covid, not passed away because of Covid. He wasn't showing any symptoms at the time, but his wife is a nurse and had the disease before hand. Unless something drastically changes, the football players will be fine.

 

[Teej]

Nearly 90 percent of the coronavirus deaths in Connecticut last week were nursing home patients

Nursing home residents may account for one-half of all U.S. coronavirus deaths

Expert say — and initial reports from European countries suggest — once the pandemic has subsides, roughly half of all deaths may be found to have occurred in assisted living homes.

Ex 1. 90% < 100%
Ex 2. 50% < 100%
Ex 3. 50% < 100%

I see a trend... roughly 63% of deaths are in Nursing homes.

 

[brdmaverick]

But behind the scenes, teams have been modeling out shortened seasons. One particular scenario that has taken hold, according to team sources, is a 14-game schedule that would start in October and result in the Super Bowl being pushed back just one week to Feb. 14. Under this scenario, the two games that would be cut would be cross-conference matchups. The week off in between Championship Sunday and the Super Bowl would be removed, which would include the cancelation of the Pro Bowl.

If they're going to cut 2 cross conference games then no Seahawks or 49ers please. Lol

Edit: Correct that - no Seahawks or Rams and therefore no west coast trip. 49ers can come to Foxboro. Though that would give the Patriots more home games so that probably won't happen.

right, I imagine ALL teams will each have a home and away game schedules for weeks 1 and 2 in case those get cut

 

[Teej]

Last week a 42 year old died in Maine, we have about 60 deaths so far, so it is rather easy to track. Headlines in the paper proclaimed a Covid-19 death. He did actually have Covid-19, and he did die, which is a tragedy. He was a fireman, had been doing strenuous labor after being at a fire, and had a heart attack and passed away. He is counted as a Covid death, however, since all of the numbers by the CDC are people who passed away while having Covid, not passed away because of Covid. He wasn't showing any symptoms at the time, but his wife is a nurse and had the disease before hand. Unless something drastically changes, the football players will be fine.

Should NFL players worry about coronavirus? (Spoiler: Yes, they should.) - ProFootballTalk

At a time when some media charlatans are saying what a certain segment of society wants to hear, instead of what everyone needs to know about the ongoing pandemic, a very real sense is emerging regarding the extent to which NFL players are concerned about the coronavirus.

The truth is that players should be worried about it, for various reasons. First, they should be concerned about spreading it to family members, friends, or complete strangers with whom they come into contact. Second, they should be concerned that the virus will do to them what it has done to others who were seemingly young and healthy but who ended up young and dead.

How many people who think they’re healthy really aren’t? More importantly, how many football players are morbidly obese, which is a risk factor even if the player is otherwise healthy?

Is it a stretch to worry that the virus will incapacitate and/or kill a 350-pounder who quite possibly has a ****tail of conditions that routinely get downplayed by doctors who realize that most if not all men that big are going to be something less than fully and completely healthy? If only one college or pro football players dies from COVID-19, it will instantly become impossible to continue playing, absent testing of every player before every practice and before every game.

Which, as of April 29, simply isn’t possible. As May becomes June becomes July becomes August becomes football season, will the testing capacity change that much in such a short period of time?

That’s another reason for football players to worry about the virus. It ultimately could keep them from playing football at all in 2020, if significant strides aren’t made when it comes to giving anyone and everyone the biological “all clear” before entering the petri dish that is an NFL locker room.

 

[Teej]

Maybe David Andrews should think twice as should other players. I would.

Blood Clots Are Another Dangerous COVID-19 Mystery

Around the world, doctors caring for COVID-19 patients have been trying to make sense of the same thing. When they draw blood from COVID patients, it clots in the tubes. When nurses insert catheters for kidney dialysis and IV lines to draw blood, the tubes quickly become clogged with clots.

“Patients are making clots all over the place,” says Adam Cuker, MD, a hematologist and associate professor of medicine at the Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania. “That’s making management of these patients very challenging.”

In addition to the well-known breathing problems, blood clots are a significant danger for COVID-19 patients. Clots are causing patients with COVID to have heart attacks and strokes; form strange rashes on their skin; and get red, swollen wounds that look like frostbite on their fingers and toes. On autopsy, the small vessels of the lungs and bowels, liver, and kidneys of COVID patients are choked with clots.

 

[XLIX]

OMG, he's calling bull...it must be so! Sorry but you must have missed this article below and the only bull is you saying you read "countless articles"...maybe you're math challenged??? That being said, below are some tidbits showing the flaws in your position due to the unknown...from the first Google search results page:

Will warm weather really kill off Covid-19?

ROFL!!! That article - which doesn't even come to any real conclusion, it just says "we don't know" - is from March 23. That's over 6 weeks ago, which is practically a lifetime when we look at the learning curve of this virus. Let's see what has been discovered since then:

Laboratory experiments show that heat, humidity, and exposure to sunlight significantly speed up the rates at which the novel coronavirus is destroyed

Will Summer's Heat, Humidity, and Sunlight Help Us Slow COVID-19?

Coronavirus infections appear to spread far more easily in closed indoor environments than outdoors. Chinese researchers traced 318 outbreaks of three or more cases and found all were linked to indoor transmission; the only outdoor transmission involved two cases. Japanese researchers found the odds of indoor transmission were about 19 times greater than in the open air.

“What we have found so far is that sunlight seems to be very detrimental to the virus,” Dabisch explained. “And so within minutes, the majority of the virus is inactivated on surfaces and in the air in direct sunlight.”

Inside the secret DHS lab trying to crack the COVID-19 code

Instead of sheltering in place, maybe we should all be outside. In an exclusive report on NBC News, a U.S. government scientist said the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) appears to die quickly in direct sunlight, both in the air and on surfaces, but not necessarily on the skin.

Study: Coronavirus appears to die quickly in direct sunlight

 

[Teej]

ROFL!!! That article - which doesn't even come to any real conclusion, it just says "we don't know" - is from March 23. That's over 6 weeks ago, which is practically a lifetime when we look at the learning curve of this virus. Let's see what has been discovered since then:

Laboratory experiments show that heat, humidity, and exposure to sunlight significantly speed up the rates at which the novel coronavirus is destroyed

Will Summer's Heat, Humidity, and Sunlight Help Us Slow COVID-19?

Coronavirus infections appear to spread far more easily in closed indoor environments than outdoors. Chinese researchers traced 318 outbreaks of three or more cases and found all were linked to indoor transmission; the only outdoor transmission involved two cases. Japanese researchers found the odds of indoor transmission were about 19 times greater than in the open air.

“What we have found so far is that sunlight seems to be very detrimental to the virus,” Dabisch explained. “And so within minutes, the majority of the virus is inactivated on surfaces and in the air in direct sunlight.”

Inside the secret DHS lab trying to crack the COVID-19 code

Instead of sheltering in place, maybe we should all be outside. In an exclusive report on NBC News, a U.S. government scientist said the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) appears to die quickly in direct sunlight, both in the air and on surfaces, but not necessarily on the skin.

Study: Coronavirus appears to die quickly in direct sunlight

It's clear to me you have voices in your head shouting "They're gonna play! They're gonna play! Really, they're gonna play!" They're drowning out all objectivity.

Article posted by Harvard and updated on May 5th, Note...the report cited in April is the last word as far as they're apparently concerned.

Bottom line, you're engaged in wishful thinking because the actual facts won't be in until after the Summer. Wait and see...or are you just gonna keep whining "Are we there yet? Please let there be football!!!

COVID-19 basics - Harvard Health


Will warm weather slow or stop the spread of COVID-19?
Some viruses, like the common cold and flu, spread more when the weather is colder. But it is still possible to become sick with these viruses during warmer months.

At this time, we do not know for certain whether the spread of COVID-19 will decrease when the weather warms up. But a new report suggests that warmer weather may not have much of an impact.

The report, published in early April by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine, summarized research that looked at how well the COVID-19 coronavirus survives in varying temperatures and humidity levels, and whether the spread of this coronavirus may slow in warmer and more humid weather.

The report found that in laboratory settings, higher temperatures and higher levels of humidity decreased survival of the COVID-19 coronavirus. However, studies looking at viral spread in varying climate conditions in the natural environment had inconsistent results.

The researchers concluded that conditions of increased heat and humidity alone may not significantly slow the spread of the COVID-19 virus.